Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Faisal Basri
15 November 2009
Bagian I
Perkembangan Ekonomi Dunia Terkini
Summary
¾ Perekonomian dunia sudah menunjukkan
recovery,
eco e y, lebih
eb cepa
cepat da
dari pe
perkiraan
aa
sebelumnya, kecuali AS yang masih rentan.
¾ Tulang punggung pemulihan adalah Emerging
M k t EM)
Markets EM), khususnya
kh EM
EM-Asia,
A i lebih
l bih khusus
kh
lagi Asia Timur. Bahkan kawasan ini pulih
sangat cepat dan mendahului negara
negara-negara
negara
maju (fenomena baru).
¾ Perlu diwaspadai:
p
• Tekanan inflasi
• Volatilitas nilai tukar.
• Kenaikan
K ik hharga-harga h komoditi,
k diti tterutama
t minyak,
i k
karena kenaikan real demand
The world economy is facing a deep
downturn in 2009
In the most severe recession since WW II, the global economy is projected
to shrink by 1.1 percent in 2009, with slow (sluggish) recovery next year.
Description Jul 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Jan 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09
World GDP growth, % 3.9 3.0 2.2 0.5 -0.8 -1.3 -1.4 -1.1
-United States 0.8 0.1 -0.7 -1.6 -2.6 -2.8 -2.6 -2.7
-Euro Area 1.2 0.2 -0.5 -2.0 -3.2 -4.2 -4.8 -4.2
-Developing economies 6.7 6.1 5.1 3.3 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.7
World trade growth, % 6.0 4.1 2.0 -2.8 - -11.0 -12.2 -11.9
Not available. It’s been a lousy year for forecasters
Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, various issues. all over the world.)
Oil prices have roughly doubled since Feb.
Crude Oil Lt Sweet Pit (Nymex) December 2009
5:14 p.m. EDT
US$76.54 =
Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html
= 10,270.47
Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html
Euro Zone: green shoots
The two largest economies of the 16-country euro zone,
Germany and France, grew in the second quarter after
falling
a g for
o four
ou quarters.
qua e s
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2009/08/14/business/14euro_graphic_ready.html
Business confidence is surging across
EU and BRIC –FT, 10 August 2009, p.1
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2009/08/14/business/20090815_CHARTS_GRAPHIC.html
U.S.: The case for optimism
Why It's Smart To Be Optimistic
Sure, it has been a harrowing storm. And
now is no time to discount the dangers
that still exist. But opening your mind to
optimism can help you seize the
opportunities
t iti ahead h d ....
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/toc/09_34/B4144optimism.htm?chan=magazine+channel_top+stories
U.S. economic contraction slowed in quarter
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/01/business/economy/01econ.html?_r=1&th&emc=th
Deepening the pain: job losses pile up
Job losses since the recession began in December 2007. Unemployment
rateshot up to 10.2% in October 2009, a 26-year high.
0
‐1000
‐2000
‐3000
‐4000
‐5000
‐6000
Cumulative (000)
‐7000
Montly job losses (000)
‐8000
8000
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S
Indeks kepercayaan
k
konsumen adalah
d l h salah
l h
satu leading economic
indicator bagi
perekonomian.
k i Setelah
S t l h
mengalami penurunan
pada bulan Juni dan
J li consumer
Juli,
Confidence Index naik
tajam pada bulan
A t menjadi
Agustus j di 54
54.11
dari 47.4 sebulan
sebelumnya.
Source: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/ConsumerConfidence.cfm
Bagian II
Perekonomian
k Indonesia
Summary
¾ Perekonomian Indonesia ternyata bisa bertahan dari
deraan krisis global dengan pertumbuhan masih di
atas 4 persen.
¾ Kekuatan utama adalah pasar domestik yang cukup
besar.
¾ Pertumbuhan belum berkualitas,
berkualitas sektor tradable masih
merana.
¾ Perlu pembenahan kebijakan moneter dan kebijakan
fiskal.
¾ Peluang terbuka lebar bagi FDI untuk imbangi modal
jangka pendek.
The transmission of stress
Source: The World Bank, East Asia Pacific Update, East Asia: Navigating the Perfect Storm, December 2008.
Countries more dependent on exports will
likely be more vulnerable to the slowdown
Source: Asian Development Bank, The AsiIa Economic Monitor (AEM), July 2009, p. 5.
Direction of trade: Asean and Indonesia
Ingat: Peran Singapura !!!
12
10
8
6
4 46
4.6
2 2.6
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
Source: BPS.
BI Rate bertahan di 6.5 persen
13.0
12.0
11.0
10.0
90
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
Rp Trn persen
300 12
280
11
260
240
10
220
200 9
180
8
160
140
7
120
100 6
2007 2008 2009
SBI Outstanding (sumbu kiri) BI Rate (sumbu kanan)
SBI 1-bulan (sumbu kanan)
Pertumbuhan suplai uang relatif rendah
YoY%
50
40
30
20
10
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
-10
M2 M1 M0
-20
Belanja pemerintah masih seret
Rp Trn percent
250 14
Rekening Pem erintah di BI
Inter Bank Rate 12
200 BI Rate
10
150
8
6
100
4
50
2
0 0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
9,500
9,000
8,500
12,500
12,000
11,500
11,000
10,500
10,000
8-Apr
22-Jul
15-Oct
12-Jan
11-Apr
Jul-05
27-Sep
23-Dec
17-Mar
14-Jun
7-Sep
6-Dec
1-Mar
28-May
20-Aug
(Rupiah per US$)
16-Nov
20-Feb
16-May
8-Aug
6-Nov
Feb-05
Heart beat has been appreciating ...
May-04
Jul-28
23-Oct
Source: Bank Indonesia
W
30000.00
35000.00
40000.00
45000 00
45000.00
50000.00
55000.00
60000.00
65000.00
1-
J
W a
2-
F
W e
3-
M
W a
4-
A
W n
4-
W Jul
1-
S
W ep
2-
O
W ct
3-
N
W ov
4-
D
W ec
2-
A
31 pr
-A
u
31 g
-J
(US$ million)
29 an
-J
31 un
-A
ug
5-
O
15 c t
-N
19 ov
-D
e
31 c
-J
a
6- n
M
a
15 r
-A
23 pr
-M
30 ay
-J
u
7- n
A
15 ug
-S
e
24 p
-O
Fe ct
b-
2
Ju 7
l- 3
1
Foreign reserves increased more than $7 bil
bil..
JSX index recovered significantly
Business Week,
Week 14-21 Maret 2007
2007, hal.18.
hal 18
Balance of payments (US$ million)
2008 Q3‐08 Q4‐08 Q1‐09 Q2‐09 H1‐09
I. CURRENT ACCOUNT 285 ‐891 ‐684 2,885 3,104 5,989
A G d
A. Goods, net (Trade Balance)
t (T d B l ) 22 916
22,916 5 771
5,771 4 166
4,166 6 969
6,969 8 705
8,705 15 674
15,674
1. Exports, f.o.b. 139,606 38,081 29,768 24,205 27,509 51,714
2. Imports, f.o.b. ‐116,690 ‐32,309 ‐25,603 ‐17,236 ‐18,805 36,041
B S i
B. Services, net ‐12,745
12 745 ‐3,195
3 195 ‐3,288
3 288 ‐2,535
2 535 ‐3,097
3 097 ‐5,632
5 632
C. Income, net ‐15,271 ‐4,803 ‐2,879 ‐2,672 ‐3,714 6,386
D. Current Transfers, net 5,385 1,336 1,317 1,122 1,210 2,332
II. CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT ‐1,354 904 ‐3,340 1,750 ‐2,414 ‐664
A. Capital Account 294 187 29 19 29 48
B. Financial Account ‐1,648 717 ‐3,368 1,731 ‐2,443 ‐712
1. Direct investment 2,799 404 2,061 1,660 9 1,669
2. Portfolio investment 1,721 ‐74 ‐ 4,377 1,859 2,003 3,862
3. Other investment ‐6,167 387 ‐1,052 ‐1,788 ‐4,455 ‐6,243
III. ERRORS & OMISSIONS ‐876 ‐103 ‐188 ‐680 362 ‐318
IV. RESERVES &RELATED ITEMS 1,945 89 4,212 ‐3,955 ‐1,052 ‐5,007
Source: Bank Indonesia.
The role of FDI in Asia & South America, 2006
FDI flows to GFCF FDI stocks to GDP
Country Percent Country Percent
Venezuela -2.1 Indonesia 5.2
Bangladesh 3.9 India 5.7
Sri Lanka 6.2 Bangladesh 6.3
Indonesia 6.4 Sri Lanka 10.9
China 8.0 China 11.1
India 8.7 Pakistan 11.4
Argentina 9.6 Taiwan 14.2
Taiwan 10.3 Philippines 14.6
Brazil 10.5 Peru 20.7
Vietnam 12.5 Brazil 20.8
Philippines 14.1 Venezuela 25.0
Thailand 16.5 Argentina 27.4
Peru 18.9 Thailand 33.0
Bolivia 19.5 Malaysia 36.0
Malaysia 20.1 Ecuador 39.9
Pakistan 24.1 Cambodia 41.6
Ecuador 24.8 Bolivia 44.6
Chile 28.3 Vietnam 54.8
Cambodia 38.9 Chile 55.4
Singapore 79.5 S
Singapore 1 90
159.0
Asia 12.9 Asia 24.9
South America 13.1 South America 26.0
Notes: FDI = Foreign Direct Investment (inward); GFCF = Gross Fixed Capital Formation; GDP = Gross Domestic Product. Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2007.
Indonesia’s post
post--crisis journey
Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, %
6.6
6.4
5.2
7
4.2
4.0
5
4
3
1
-1
-3
-5
-7
-9 Gus Dur:
-11 “Erratic/shaky”
-13
Megawati:
-15 Consolidation and
-17 acceleration
-19
SBY: Throws away
-21
21 Momentum and then made
Momentum,
correction
Crisis
peak Source: BPS.
Low quality — Sectoral growth rate
(2000 base year
year, year-
year-on
on--year growth rate
rate, %)
6
GDP
4
Tradable
2
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
* January-June.
Source: BPS.
GDP growth by expenditure (y-
(y-o-y, %)
2009
Description 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 H1 H1‐Share
Private consumption
p 3,2
, 5,0
, 5,3
, 6,0
, 4,8
, 5,4
, 57,1
,
Exports 94
9,4 85
8,5 9 5 ‐18
9,5 18,7
7 ‐15
15,7
7 ‐17
17,2
2 23 7
23,7
Imports 8,6 9,0 10,0 ‐26,0 ‐23,9 ‐24,9 20,6
GDP 55
5,5 63
6,3 61
6,1 44
4,4 40
4,0 42
4,2 100 0
100,0
Source: BPS..
Otomotif dan sepeda motor mulai naik..
Konsumsi semen naik ke level tertinggi
Indonesia: foreign visitors arrivals
Visitors: Growth:
Jan-Sep 2008 = 4,570,492 Sep 2009 (m-t-m) = -12.88%
Jan-Sep 2009 = 4,619,483 Jan-Jul 2009 (y-o-y) = 1.07%
700000
2008 2009
600000
500000
400000
00000
May
Mar
May
Mar
Oct
Jan
Jan
Feb
Feb
Sep
Sep
Dec
Jun
Jun
Nov
Jul
Jul
Apr
Apr
Aug
Aug
Sources: BPS
Indeks tendensi konsumen
110
100
90
Q3-09 is prediction.
Source: BPS.
Indeks tendensi bisnis
120
110
100
90
Q3-09 is prediction.
Source: BPS.
Bagian III
Liingkungan Politik
Decoupling between politics and
economic activities?
Jakarta International Java Jazz Festival, held on 6-8
March 2009. The festival's 19 stages featured more than
300 performances. There isn't a jazz festival larger than
Java Jazz Festival in this part of the world.
Place Date
a II
Bali October 1,, 2005
Octobe 005
Sou ce Helmi
Source: e Armand,a d, “Indonesia
do es a
Economic Briefing –Jakarta Blasts:
Possible market implication,“17 July 2009.
¾ Partai “kiri”
kiri tak ada yang lolos.
¾ Partai “kiri-tengah” merosot: PDIP
¾ Partai “kanan” melorot tajam (PPP), banyak pula
yang tak lolos (PBB, PBR, PDS, PKNU, dll.)
¾ Partai “kanan-tengah” merosot (PKB dan PAN)
¾ Partai tengah menggelembung (PD
(PD, Golkar,
Golkar
Gerindra, Hanura)
Peluang jangan disia-siakan
Should
be here
Pertumbuhan Ekonomi,, %YoY 6.1 4.8 5.4 5.8 6.3 6.9 7.1
PDB Nominal, Rp Tril 4954 5795 6791 8015 9479 11299 13548
Baseline Kebutuhan Investasi, Rp Tril 1370 1698 1967 2405 2885 3240 3776
Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, %YoY 6.1 4.8 5.9 6.5 7.2 7.4 7.4
PDB Nominal
Nominal, Rp Tril 4954 5795 6823 8104 9661 11577 13916
Adjustment Kebutuhan Investasi, Rp Tril 1370 1698 1976 2432 2941 3320 3879
Nilai,, Rp
pT 1370 1698 1976 2432 2941 3320 3879
Total
Pangsa, % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Catatan: - Investasi Pemerintah adalah Belanja Barang Modal Pemerintah Pusat + Pemerintah Dati I & II
- Peningkatan PDB menggambarkan jumlah utang maksimum yang bisa dikeluarkan oleh pemerintah
dengan menjaga rasio DEBT/GDP tetap konstan.
Keunikan Indonesia
Negara kepulauan
Mewujudkan negara maritim yang
mampu mengintegrasikan
perekonomian domestik menuju
negara maju yang berkeadilan
Kerangka Strategi Pembangunan
VISI:
Mewujudkan negara maritim yang mampu mengintegrasikan
perekonomian domestik menuju negara maju yang berkeadilan
M 1. Pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi dan berkelanjutan;
I
S 2. Perluasan penyerapan tenaga kerja;
I 3. Pengentasan kemiskinan dan pemerataan pembangunan.
Melalui p
pencapaian
p 5(
(lima)
) sasaran strategis:
g
Struktur Sumber
Pemanfaatan Birokrasi yang
ekonomi yang Sumber daya pembiayaan
SDA secara kompeten,
kokoh, mandiri manusia pembangunan
optimal dan efektif dan
dan berdaya produktif mencukupi dan
lestari bersih
saing efisien
Fokus pada
pada 7 area kebijakan
kebijakan::
SUPRASTRUKTUR
Logistic cost in comparison
Port efficiency
Container handling cost per Ship movement per hour
40 feet (US$) (unit)
Email: faisal.basri@gmail.com
faisal basri@gmail com
Blog: http://kompasiana.com/faisalbasri