Climate Change in SE Asia:

Costs of Action vs Inaction

John Pearson
British High Commission
Singapore
October 2010
Stern Review

Cost of Action:
1-2% of Global
GDP to act now –
but more (5-20%)
if we delay

Cost of Inaction:
Up to 20% of GDP
Climate Change Is Happening
Climate Change is Happening
Climate Change Will Continue

2050: +1.3 - 2.3ºC

2100: +2.4 - 5.0ºC

+70cm sea level by

2100
Climate Change Will Continue

2050: +1.3 - 2.3ºC

2100: +2.4 - 5.0ºC

+70cm sea level by

2100
S E Asia is very vulnerable
People and
economy near the
sea in low lying
areas (Jakarta,
Manila...)

Dependent on
agriculture and
natural resources

High level of
poverty
Likely Impacts
SE Asia could lose 6.7% of GDP by 2100,
if non-market impacts and catastrophic
risks are also taken into account.
Adaptation

Drought and saline resistant

crops

Efficient irrigation
techniques

Climate proof infrastructure

Early warning systems

Adaptation Makes Economic Sense
By 2100
Benefit:1.9% of GDP Cost: 0.2% of GDP
Mitigation

12% of world
emissions (2000)

Will grow greatly in

next 30 years

So need to tackle
now
 Reduce Emissions Cheaply

40% of energy-related CO2 emissions cut at “no cost”

by 2020

Another 40% cut at below 1% of GDP

Win Win Options

Mangroves

Hydro Power
Reservoirs
Harapan rainforest
The Low Carbon Economy
 www.adb.org/Documents/Books/
Economics-Climate-Change-SEA/default.asp
World Average – 3.8 tCO2/capita
 Climate Change Is Happening
CO2 already the highest in Homo Sapien’s existence

Bronze Age Begins

(5500)
Earliest Evidence of Homo Sapiens Appear Agriculture Begins
Cooking (400,000) (200,000) (10,000)