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year quarter invoices 4QMT 4QMA Trend Deviation seasonal factor

1 1
2 137 9.18
3 153 20.18
4 140 558 139.5 142.13 -2.13 -2.16
2 1 128 579 144.75 146.75 -18.75 -27.2
2 158 595 148.75 151.13 6.88 9.18
3 169 614 153.5 154.63 14.38 20.18
4 159 623 155.75 158.5 0.5 -2.16
3 1 137 645 161.25 164.13 -27.13 -27.2
2 180 668 167 168.63 11.38 9.18
3 192 681 170.25 171.25 20.75 20.18
4 172 689 172.25 174 -2 -2.16
4 1 145 703 175.75 178.25 -33.25 -27.2
2 194 723 180.75 182.25 11.75 9.18
3 212 735 183.75 184.13 27.88 20.18
4 184 738 184.5 185.75 -1.75 -2.16
5 1 148 748 187 187.25 -39.25 -27.2
2 204 188.75 9.18
3 190.25 20.18
4 191.75 -2.16
6 1 193.25 -27.2
2 194.75 9.18
3 196.25 20.18
4 197.75 -2.16
quarter 1 quarter 2 quarter 3 quarter 4
year 1 -2.13
year 2 -18.75 6.88 14.38 0.5
year 3 -27.13 11.38 20.75 -2
year 4 -33.25 11.75 27.88 -1.75
Total deviation -79.13 30 63 -5.38 adjustment
average deviation -26.38 10 21 -1.34 3.28 0.82
seasonal factor -27.2 9.18 20.18 -2.16
deseasonalised invoives rate of trend change error error squared

127.82
132.82
142.16 -3.12 0.04 0
155.2 8.45 71.32
148.82 -2.3 5.31
148.82 -5.8 33.69
161.16 2.66 7.1
164.2 0.07 0
170.82 2.2 4.82
171.82 0.57 0.33
174.16 0.16 0.03
172.2 -6.05 36.66
184.82 2.57 6.61
191.82 7.7 59.22
186.16 0.41 0.17
175.2 -12.05 145.32
194.82
210.43 370.58
189.59 26.47
166.05
203.93
216.43
195.59

4.29 18.41
year quarter invoices 4QMT 4QMA Trend deviation seasonal factor deseasonalised
1 1
2 137
3 153
4 140 558 139.5 142.13 0.99 0.92 152.36
2 1 128 579 144.75 146.75 0.87 0.99 129.91
2 158 595 148.75 151.13 1.05 1.09 145.19
3 169 614 153.5 154.63 1.09 1.01 167.73
4 159 623 155.75 158.5 1 0.92 173.04
3 1 137 645 161.25 164.13 0.83 0.99 139.04
2 180 668 167 168.63 1.07 1.09 165.4
3 192 681 170.25 171.25 1.12 1.01 190.56
4 172 689 172.25 174 0.99 0.92 187.18
4 1 145 703 175.75 178.25 0.81 0.99 147.16
2 194 723 180.75 182.25 1.06 1.09 178.27
3 212 735 183.75 184.13 1.15 1.01 210.41
4 184 738 184.5 185.75 0.99 0.92 200.24
5 1 148 748 187 189.11 0.78 0.99
2 204 192.46 1.09
3 197.3 195.82 1.01
4 183.02 199.17 0.92
199.55 202.53 0.99
224.05 205.88 1.09
210.82 209.24 1.01
195.35 212.6 0.92
quarter 1 quarter 2 quarter 3 quarter 4
year 1 0.99
year 2 0.87 1.05 1.09 1
year 3 1.07 1.12 0.99 0.81
year 4 1.06 1.15 0.99
total 3 3.32 3.07 2.8
average 1 1.11 1.02 0.93 4.07 0.98
adjustment 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98
0.99 1.09 1.01 0.92 4
deseasonalised Residual error error squared

3.36

1.07 9.4 88.42


0.89 -16.59 275.32
0.96 -6.46 41.75
1.08 13.21 174.37
1.09 13.36 178.4
0.85 -24.71 610.7
0.98 -3.51 12.29
1.11 19.45 378.47
1.08 12.11 146.75
0.83 -30.63 938.17
0.98 -4.33 18.78
1.14 26.48 701.29
1.08 13.32 177.34
0.79 -38.33 1468.87

total 13.93 5210.92


average 0.99 372.21
TUTORIAL 3 QUESTION NO 2
YEAR QUARTER PROFIT 4QMT 4QMA
1 1
2 13.8
3 20.1
4 13.7 59.7 14.93
2 1 12.1 59.8 14.95
2 13.9 60.1 15.03
3 20.4 60.3 15.08
4 13.9 60.7 15.18
3 1 12.5 61 15.25
2 14.2 61.7 15.43
3 21.1 62 15.5
4 14.2 62.7 15.68
4 1 13.2 63.4 15.85
2 14.9 64.6 16.15
3 22.3 66 16.5
4 15.6 67.1 16.78
5 1 14.3 68.1 17.03
2 15.9 69.7 17.43
3 23.9
4
6 1
2
3
4

Year Quarter1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter4


1 0.92
2 0.81 0.92 1.35 0.91
3 0.81 0.92 1.35 0.9
4 0.83 0.91 1.34 0.92
5 0.83 0
Total Deviation 3.28 2.75 4.04 3.65
Average Deviation 0.82 0.69 1.35 0.91
Adjuestment Factor 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06
Seasonal Factor 0.87 0.73 1.43 0.97
TRANT DEVIATION SEACIONAL FACTOR deseasonalised invoives RESIDUAL ERROR

14.94 0.92 0.97 14.13 0.95 -0.77


14.99 0.81 0.87 13.92 0.93 -0.9
15.05 0.92 0.73 19.02 1.26 2.92
15.13 1.35 1.43 14.27 0.94 -1.16
15.21 0.91 0.97 14.34 0.94 -0.81
15.34 0.81 0.87 14.38 0.94 -0.76
15.46 0.92 0.73 19.43 1.26 2.93
15.59 1.35 1.43 14.75 0.95 -1.07
15.76 0.9 0.97 14.64 0.93 -1
16 0.83 0.87 15.18 0.95 -0.58
16.33 0.91 0.73 20.39 1.25 3.1
16.64 1.34 1.43 15.59 0.94 -1.3
16.9 0.92 0.97 16.09 0.95 -0.67
17.23 0.83 0.87 16.45 0.95 -0.5
0.73 21.76 0 3.17
1.43 16.71
0.97
0.87 Total 14.14
0.73 Average 0.94
1.43
0.97

The company profit year 1 to


30

3.77 1.06
25
4

20

Profit 15

10

0
2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
Quarter & Year
10

0
2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
Quarter & Year
0.6
0.81
8.52
1.34
0.66
0.58
8.57
1.14
1
0.34
9.59
1.68
0.44
0.25
10.02

45.54
3.04

profit year 1 to 5

Column D
Column G

2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3
uarter & Year
Column G

2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3
uarter & Year