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Quarterly Economic and
Housing Analysis
3Q10
with 10‐year Enrollment Projections
3Q09: 202
3Q10: 196
• Closing remained high following the tax credit expiration.
• Increase in starts activity may be short lived as inventory remains high.
Starts 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Closings 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
1Q 226 158 106 47 80 1Q 223 179 162 86 63
2Q 251 135 120 44 65 2Q 217 200 142 103 91
3Q 165 208 115 94 84 3Q 196 166 163 95 91
4Q 203 123 67 59 - 4Q 181 167 119 95 -
Total 845 624 408 244 229 Total 817 712 586 379 245
Regional decline in starts not felt in
Plano ISD as the upper price points have
fared better than those below $200K
3Q08 © Copyright Metrostudy 2008
3Q10 Annual Closings
1/3 of all new construction is occurring in Trails of Glenwood
and Preston Villages Addition
Leads all subdivisions Leads all subdivisions
71 Homes now occupied 34 Homes now occupied
Currently 22 homes under construction Currently 11 homes under construction
VDL now stands at 56 VDL now stands at 13
New lot deliveries could be expected.(346 future) Future section will include 57 townhomes
3Q08 © Copyright Metrostudy 2008
Image date: December 2009
Sub Totals by Elementary Campus
SUBDIVISION ATTENDANCE ZONE REPORT ‐ 3Q10
Annual Quarter Annual Quarter Total
Elementary School Starts Starts Closings Closings Occ. Models F/V U/C Inventory VDL Future Total
ALDRIDGE Total 1 0 3 0 22 0 1 0 1 28 0 51
ANDREWS Total 0 0 0 0 1,346 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,346
BARKSDALE Total 11 3 15 2 417 1 3 3 7 13 22 459
BARRON Total 0 0 0 0 103 0 0 0 0 0 0 103
BETHANY Total 0 0 0 0 76 0 0 0 0 0 0 76
BEVERLY Total 23 6 33 5 1,264 2 7 0 9 9 0 1,282
BOGGESS Total 12 3 14 5 1,567 1 0 5 6 41 0 1,614
BRINKER Total 39 7 29 12 1,225 3 9 7 19 197 301 1,742
CENTENNIAL Total 4 3 4 0 1,407 0 0 4 4 36 0 1,447
DAFFRON Total 0 0 0 0 452 0 0 0 0 0 0 452
DAVIS Total 0 0 0 0 78 0 0 0 0 0 0 78
DOOLEY Total 2 1 4 2 439 0 0 2 2 5 50 496
FOREMAN Total 0 0 0 0 122 0 0 0 0 0 0 122
GULLEDGE Total 0 0 0 0 406 0 0 0 0 0 0 406
HAGGAR Total 3 1 13 3 899 2 1 1 4 62 0 965
HAUN Total 0 0 0 0 989 0 0 0 0 0 0 989
HEDGECOXE Total 0 0 0 0 123 0 0 0 0 0 0 123
HICKEY Total 19 6 10 7 973 1 5 4 10 45 0 1,028
HIGHTOWER Total 21 7 15 0 626 2 0 11 13 13 57 709
HUFFMAN Total 0 0 0 0 241 0 0 0 0 0 0 241
HUNT Total 85 24 114 33 1,740 5 12 23 40 248 637 2,665
JACKSON Total 0 0 3 0 307 0 1 0 1 20 0 328
MATHEWS Total 0 0 0 0 2,284 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,284
MCCALL Total 57 16 59 15 1,253 3 10 22 35 56 346 1,690
MENDENHALL Total 0 0 4 0 1,019 1 8 0 9 84 0 1,112
MILLER Total 7 4 4 0 1,450 1 1 4 6 4 0 1,460
MITCHELL Total 0 0 0 0 727 0 0 0 0 0 0 727
RASOR Total 0 0 12 6 819 0 0 0 0 92 0 911
SAIGLING Total 0 0 0 0 219 0 0 0 0 0 0 219
SCHELL Total 2 1 4 1 1,120 0 0 2 2 41 230 1,393
SIGLER Total 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 7 20
SKAGGS Total 0 0 0 0 930 0 0 0 0 0 0 930
STINSON Total 3 2 1 0 1,544 1 0 2 3 25 60 1,632
WELLS Total 0 0 0 0 362 0 0 0 0 0 0 362
WYATT Total 0 0 0 0 1260 0 0 0 0 0 0 1260
Grand Total 289 84 341 91 27,822 23 58 90 171 1,019 1,710 30,722
Year (Oct.) EE/PRE‐K K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Growth Percent
2004/05 1,547 4,003 4,026 4,043 4,040 4,074 4,000 4,047 3,960 4,037 4,156 3,657 3,566 3,263 52,419
2005/06 1,557 4,024 4,133 4,044 4,140 4,037 4,222 3,928 4,069 4,048 4,184 3,802 3,573 3,494 53,255 836 1.6%
2006/07 1,524 4,039 4,096 4,114 3,973 4,093 4,034 4,126 3,912 4,078 4,154 3,734 3,654 3,467 52,998 ‐257 ‐0.5%
2007/08 1,662 3,850 4,157 4,131 4,148 4,065 4,151 4,067 4,131 3,959 4,271 3,717 3,733 3,641 53,683 685 1.3%
2008/09 1,704 4,007 4,017 4,172 4,192 4,195 4,075 4,180 4,097 4,199 4,141 3,795 3,705 3,724 54,203 520 1.0%
2009/10 1,844 4,014 4,194 4,091 4,205 4,254 4,247 4,098 4,174 4,187 4,359 3,832 3,783 3,657 54,939 736 1.4%
2010/11 1,788 3,903 4,102 4,229 4,148 4,199 4,307 4,220 4,199 4,217 4,333 4,103 3,791 3,797 55,336 397 0.7%
*Yellow box = largest grader per year
*Green box = second largest per year
Student Housing Analysis
School Year Households Population Enrollment Student per HH Annual Closings Enrollment Growth New Home Yield
2005/06 119,727 313,685 53,255 0.44 NA NA NA
2006/07 120,636 316,066 52,998 0.44 909 ‐257 ‐0.283
2007/08 121,362 317,968 53,683 0.44 726 685 0.944
2008/09 121,996 319,630 54,203 0.44 634 520 0.820
2009/10 122,399 320,685 54,939 0.45 403 736 1.826
2010/11 122,739 321,576 55,336 0.45 340 397 1.168
Year (Oct.) EE/PRE‐K K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Growth Percent
2004/05 1,547 4,003 4,026 4,043 4,040 4,074 4,000 4,047 3,960 4,037 4,156 3,657 3,566 3,263 52,419
2005/06 1,557 4,024 4,133 4,044 4,140 4,037 4,222 3,928 4,069 4,048 4,184 3,802 3,573 3,494 53,255 836 1.6%
2006/07 1,524 4,039 4,096 4,114 3,973 4,093 4,034 4,126 3,912 4,078 4,154 3,734 3,654 3,467 52,998 ‐257 ‐0.5%
2007/08 1,662 3,850 4,157 4,131 4,148 4,065 4,151 4,067 4,131 3,959 4,271 3,717 3,733 3,641 53,683 685 1.3%
2008/09 1,704 4,007 4,017 4,172 4,192 4,195 4,075 4,180 4,097 4,199 4,141 3,795 3,705 3,724 54,203 520 1.0%
2009/10 1,844 4,014 4,194 4,091 4,205 4,254 4,247 4,098 4,174 4,187 4,359 3,832 3,783 3,657 54,939 736 1.4%
2010/11 1,788 3,903 4,102 4,229 4,148 4,199 4,307 4,220 4,199 4,217 4,333 4,103 3,791 3,797 55,336 397 0.7%
2011/12 1,788 3,926 3,994 4,135 4,289 4,205 4,230 4,330 4,246 4,246 4,484 4,057 4,045 3,751 55,726 390 0.7%
2012/13 1,788 3,938 4,008 4,024 4,172 4,349 4,247 4,274 4,370 4,281 4,464 4,137 3,968 4,003 56,023 297 0.5%
2013/14 1,788 3,911 4,043 4,038 4,072 4,217 4,401 4,268 4,328 4,411 4,520 4,196 3,931 3,928 56,052 29 0.1%
2014/15 1,788 3,911 4,000 4,085 4,089 4,121 4,265 4,402 4,315 4,392 4,564 4,229 3,951 3,893 56,005 ‐47 ‐0.1%
2015/16 1,788 3,950 4,020 4,036 4,119 4,132 4,176 4,271 4,447 4,379 4,626 4,245 4,102 3,911 56,202 197 0.4%
2016/17 1,788 3,963 4,051 4,060 4,096 4,172 4,186 4,188 4,322 4,483 4,619 4,249 4,106 4,061 56,344 142 0.3%
2017/18 1,788 3,994 4,060 4,090 4,110 4,158 4,227 4,192 4,217 4,380 4,723 4,259 4,119 4,065 56,382 38 0.1%
2018/19 1,788 4,033 4,104 4,101 4,138 4,170 4,223 4,224 4,214 4,285 4,617 4,380 4,070 4,078 56,425 43 0.1%
2019/20 1,788 4,059 4,139 4,153 4,160 4,195 4,227 4,229 4,285 4,272 4,518 4,214 4,292 4,030 56,561 136 0.2%
2020/21 1,788 4,090 4,167 4,182 4,215 4,222 4,255 4,229 4,252 4,322 4,505 4,141 4,173 4,249 56,790 229 0.4%
As the district approaches build‐out enrollment
swings may occur but generally a change of less
than 1% can be expected.
3Q08
Wya tt El ementa ry School
Tota l El ementa ry
El ementa ry growth
674 652 612 565
© Copyright Metrostudy 2008
524 494 458
25,929 26,849 26,679 26,570 26,529 26,473 26,262 26,224
100 920 ‐170 ‐109 ‐41 ‐56 ‐211
433
‐38
Enrollment Projections by Campus
MIDDLE SCHOOL CAMPUS ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
PLANO ISD PEIMS Current Projecti ons
Ca mpus Na me 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
Arms trong Mi ddl e School 818 773 763 738 724 729 785 805
Bowma n Mi ddl e School 1,002 987 761 860 906 950 975 1,029
CM Ri ce Mi ddl e School 1,228 1,204 1,164 1,167 1,167 1,141 1,138 1,076
Ca rpenter Mi ddl e School 914 878 864 878 907 920 907 869
Fra nkford Mi ddl e School 1,114 1,130 1,192 1,183 1,217 1,203 1,212 1,200
Ha gga rd Mi ddl e School 901 875 894 898 921 909 897 892
Hendri ck Mi ddl e School 845 865 885 880 839 849 855 879
Murphy Mi ddl e School 1,380 1,491 965 1,011 1,003 1,075 1,080 1,120
Renner Mi ddl e School 1,251 1,241 1,319 1,300 1,325 1,330 1,372 1,401
Robi ns on Mi ddl e School 1,063 1,085 1,046 1,034 947 980 939 948
Schi mel pfeni g Mi ddl e School 972 953 998 966 945 861 895 869
Wi l s on Mi ddl e School 988 977 948 989 1,011 1,022 1,024 999
Otto Mi ddl e School 0 0 837 918 1,013 1,038 1,030 1,010
Future Mi ddl e School 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tota l Mi ddl e School 12,476 12,459 12,636 12,822 12,925 13,007 13,109 13,097
Mi ddl e School Growth 319 ‐17 177 186 103 82 102 ‐12
Middle Schools will continue to grow for the next few years
as large elementary grades move through the system
Tota l Seni or Hi gh School 7,428 7,438 7,588 7,796 7,971 7,859 7,844 8,041
Seni or Hi gh School growth 56 10 150 208 175 ‐112 ‐15 197
Pl a no J J A E P 2 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
• McMillen High opens and begins to relieve Williams beginning in 2011
• Senior High School feeder patterns fully resolve in 2014/15
Tota l Seni or Hi gh School 7,588 7,796 7,971 7,859 7,844 8,041 8,291 8,301 8,189 8,364 8,468
Seni or Hi gh School growth 150 208 175 ‐112 ‐15 197 250 10 ‐112 175 104
TOTAL 55,339 55,764 56,094 56,120 56,141 56,364 56,525 56,557 56,526 56,657 56,885
Student Growth 400 425 330 26 21 223 161 32 ‐31 131 228
Percent Growth 0.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% ‐0.1% 0.2% 0.4%