Problem:

The time estimates in weeks for activities of a PERT Network are given below

Activity to tm tp

1-2 1 1 7

1-3 1 4 7

1-4 2 2 8

2-5 1 1 1

3-5 2 5 14

4-6 2 5 8

5-6 3 6 15

1. Draw the network diagram & identify the critical path

2. Determine the expected project duration

3. Calculate the std. dev. & variance of the project

4. Find the prob. that the project will be completed

a. at least 4 weeks earlier than the expected time

b. 4 weeks later than the expected time

5. If the project due date is 19 weeks. What is the probability of not meeting the
due date?

6. What should be the scheduled completion for the probability of completion to

be 90%?
Solution:
The following is the table containing the Mean, standard deviation and variance of
the project.

Expect
ed
Time Varian
Duration (in weeks) (µ) Std. Dev. ce
Activity to tm tp ti σTi σ2
A 1,2 1 1 7 2 1 1
B 1,3 1 4 7 4 1 1
C 1,4 2 2 8 3 1 1
D 2,5 1 1 1 1 0 0
E 3,5 2 5 14 6 2 4
F 4,6 2 5 8 5 1 1
G 5,6 3 6 15 7 2 4
Note: The critical path is highlighted in red.

1. The network diagram for the project is:

Note: The critical path is highlighted in red.

2. The expected project duration is: 17 days

(The expected earliest finish of the activity End is the expected duration of the
project.)

3. The standard deviation of the project is 3 & variance is 9.

4. The prob. that the project will be completed

a) at least 4 weeks earlier than the expected time is 9.121122%
b) 4 weeks later than the expected time is 9.121122%
5. The probability of not meeting the due date if the project due date is 19
weeks is 25.24925%

6. When the probability of project completion is 90%, the scheduled completion

is 13.15 weeks.