FACULTY OF COMMERCE

DEPARTMENT OF BANKING &FINANCE

NAME SHARON MANYARA

REG N# R0722253c

M.O.E PARARELL

LEVEL 4.2

MODULE BANK LENDING & CREDIT RISK (BF 405)

DUE DATE 04 MARCH 2011

ASSIGNMENT QUESTION:

BANK LENDING IN ZIMBABWE IN A MULTIPLE CURRENCY REGIME FROM 2009

TO DATE

[100marks]

INTRODUCTION
On 29 January 2010, the Acting Finance Minister of Zimbabwe introduced the multiple currency
system, effectively abandoning the use of the Zimbabwean dollar as the medium of exchange.

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

The adoption of the multi-currency system (dollarisation) set Zimbabwe on a true economic
turnaround path as the new currency regime, among other factors, directly contributed to the
immediate containment of inflation by arresting rapid price movements and putting an end to
rapid money supply growth as well as curtailing speculative activities.

However, the new economic order exposed the economy to serious liquidity challenges because
under dollarisation money supply (foreign currency) is a function of the performance of the
export sector, international capital inflows, Diaspora remittances and donor funds. With the
central bank having lost monetary control and government cash-strapped, attention shifted to the
financial sector. This is because under certain conditions banks can create money (deposit
money) through the multiple deposit creation process. In fact, this process is one of the three
main methods of money creation. The other two are the manufacture of paper currency or metal
coins, and government policies such as quantitative easing (QE).

In the financial services sector, funding levels have not been sufficient to meet the needs of
borrowers or to bring down the cost of borrowing. Overdraft rates, when the money can be
found, are therefore likely to remain relatively high while banks have to continue competing for
fixed deposits. Continuing uncertainties about the security of foreign exchange balances still
appear to be discouraging investors from taking advantage of the very much higher interest rates
available from Zimbabwean banks.

Despite the increase in credit to the productive sectors by banks, the credit and liquidity remains
woefully inadequate, a situation that, together with perceived high country risk, explains the
current high interest rate environment. The negative impact of the continued liquidity crunch has
seen the government reducing its economic growth forecast to 5, 4 percent from the original
seven percent.

LENDING ACTIVITIES BETWEEN 2009 TO 2011

The deposit base started very low in 2010 because the process of dollarisation in Zimbabwe was
peculiar in that it was not backed by international reserves as is normally the case with other
countries that have dollarised. As a result, domestic money balances in the banking system were
not converted into foreign currency. This rendered both domestic savings of the public and
money capital balances of banks worthless.

The deposit base started at around US$298 million in January 2009 before growing by 139
percent during the first six months to around US$711 million. By the end of the year the deposit
base had grown by a further 83 percent to around US$1364 million.

Deposit growth during the second year has been sluggish as total deposits rose by only 27
percent to US$1 800 million during the first half of 2010. The phenomenal deposit growth during
the 2009 was mainly due to money that was outside the banking system being brought into the
formal sector as confidence improved. The slow growth during the 2010 reflects the following;

a) The current economic stagnation due to stalled capacity utilization emanating from
inadequate re-capitalization of funds.
b) Conditions for multiple deposit creation have not been enabling. The strict multiple
deposit creation process makes three important assumptions:
(i) Absence of excess reserves;
(ii) Absence of leakages through hand-to-hand circulation of money as all the money
should circulate in the banking sector through customers’ current accounts
(iii) All banks increase their deposits through credit expansion
a) The economy started on a very low deposit base since the conditions necessary for the
deposit money creation process had not been met.

Lending Rates

Lending rates have remained prohibitive to the productive sectors. Lending rates ranged between
12% and 18% annually, relatively much higher than the prime lending rate of about 9%
prevailing in Southern Africa. Bank Treasuries determine the lending rates for their institutions.
Since introduction of the multiple currency, lending rates determined by large commercial banks
have been fairly stable between 12% and 20% as shown below:

Sources: Commercial and Merchant Banks

However, merchant bank have quoted very variant lending rates during the period. The primary
reason is that their cost of funding (deposits) is much higher as they do not have a large retail
deposit base. This is in stark contrast to general world lending rates of LIBOR + 4%. This has
posed serious challenges for local treasuries as they are unable to compete for the business of the
good quality clients who can access international financing e.g. Econet.

Source: MPS 2011

Lending rates remained prohibitive from the onset of multiple currency

INTEREST RATES

Interest rates which essentially denote the cost of money to the receiving entity (the debtor
entity) or a return to the saving or lending entity (the creditor) entity, play an important
signalling role in the economy’s financial and real sectors.
This signaling function requires that:
(a) Saving individuals, households and corporate entities get a fair return on their savings; and
(b) The borrowing entities be charged fair interest rates that reflect the time-value of money
(inflation and opportunity costs), as well as the risk profiles in the borrowing sectors.
In Zimbabwe, some of the players in the banking sector have completely diverted their interest
rate regimes from the core fundamentals of inflation and fair evaluation of risk profiles in the
market, more towards unexplained, outrageous, punitive lending rates. Reflecting this are the
excessive positive real lending rates (above inflation margins) and negative real rates to
depositors as exemplified below:

2010 Mid - Year Monetary Policy Statement

11 20 INTEREST RATES MIS-MATCHES10 Monetary Policy Statement
INFLATION(YEAR RANGE OF UPPER LOWER REALRATES
ON YEAR )JUN 2010 LENDING RATES (% PER DEPOSITRATE(%PER
ANNUM) ANNUM)
LENDING DEPOSITS
 5.3% 30-50% 0-1% POSITIVE NEGATIVE

24.7-44.7% 5.3-4.3%

SOURCE:JULY 2010 MONETARY POLICY

The implications of the above skewed interest rates profiles are that:
(a) Lenders are being heavily penalised. The positive real borrowing rates of 24.7 – 44.7% reflect
the financial burden that the banking sector is unfairly imposing on the productive, individual
and household sectors of the economy. This is retrogressive to the turnaround efforts; and
(b) Depositors are losing their value of money due to the negative real deposit rates. This has the
hazardous effect of discouraging savings. A nation with limited or no savings culture has no
scope for sustainable long-term investment finance, particularly from internal sources.
Against this unfortunate inability by some players in the banking sector to shake away from the
hangover of the negative psychological effects of the 2007-2008 hyperinflationary periods, the
Reserve Bank has been left with no other option but to intervene with the immediate introduction
of a more robust market-based interest rates framework.

Loan to Deposit ratio

THE average loan-to-deposit ratio for Zimbabwean banks in 2010 was 65, 01% as banks slowed
down on lending following the dollarization of the economy in January 2009 and persistent
liquidity crisis. The levels are remarkably low compared to a regional average of about 75%
recorded during the same period.

TREND OF THE LOAN TO DEPOSIT RATIO FOR FIRST HALF OF 2010

The loan to deposit ratio was set to increase from the onset. In his monetary policy statement
presented, Reserve Bank governor Gideon Gono said commercial banks’ loan-to-deposit ratio for
the last half of 2010 was 61,97%, merchant banks 91,36%, building societies 60,89% and
savings bank s61,20%. As liquidity improves, banks are expected to increase long-term lending
to the productive sectors of the economy. Such long-term financing this is critical to the revival
of domestic industries which need to re-equip, refurbish as well as replace obsolete machinery.

Loans to Deposits Ratios as at 31 December 2010

Nameof Institution Total Loans & Total Deposits Loans to Deposits
Overdrafts Ratio

Commercial
Banks

Agribank 30,279,740.11 24,740,194.02 122.39%

Banc ABC 129,014,875.21 211,426,832.43 61.02%

Barclays 43,638,980.00 172,995,527.00 25.23%

CBZ 431,699,789.87 572,900,927.41 75.35%

CFX
FBC 73,482,046.22 134,941,093.16 54.45%

Kingdom 101,681,713.56 111,297,344.35 91.36%

MBCA 86,619,505.57 68,356,458.94 126.72%

Metropolitan 29,101,310.04 43,968,427.86 66.19%

NMB 62,008,242.49 87,898,364.10 70.55%

Stanbic 100,532,619.03 296,587,046.17 33.90%

Stanchart 110,536,931.82 217,953,691.01 50.72%

TN 36,691,180.54 53,844,841.22 68.14%

ZABG 1,516,545.45 14,271,448.61 10.63%

ZB BANK 72,694,258.63 102,092,912.68 71.20%

TOTAL 1,309,497,738.54 2,113,275,108.95

AVERAGE 87,299,849.24 140,885,007.26 61.97%

Merchant Banks

Genesis 1,629,969.12 1,491,060.70 109.32%

NDH - - -

Interfin 131,960,326.71 126,497,771.70 104.32%

Premier 17,077,494.04 44,725,894.06 38.18%

Renaissance 64,934,549.83 62,396,359.16 104.07%

Tetrad 33,288,840.45 37,306,260.88 89.23%

TOTAL 248,891,180.15 272,417,346.50

AVERAGE 41,481,863.36 45,402,891.08 91.36%

Building
Societies

CABS 58,174,444.02 118,786,723.49 48.97%

CBZ 18,876,373.79 10,414,617.69 181.25%

FBC 7,236,454.89 7,023,587.87 103.03%

ZB 3,424,444.72 7,818,608.93 43.80%

TOTAL 87,711,717.42 144,043,537.98

AVERAGE 21,927,929.36 36,010,884.49 60.89%

Savings Banks

POSB 23,177,189.19 37,869,754.95 61.20%

TOTAL 23,177,189.19 37,869,754.95

GRAND T 1,669,277,825.30 2,567,605,748.38 65.01%

The liquidity environment was again different for commercial and merchant banks. Commercial
banks did not face many liquidity challenges, especially initially because they leant our only a
small proportion of their deposits. However, merchant banks on average lent out a significant
proportion of deposits. Treasuries generally control how much of the deposits are lent out as they
control the allocation of resources. However, since then, most treasuries for local banks have
started to be more aggressive by providing more of the deposits for lending as shown above.

Lending Products

Personal Loan -Immediate access to short term loans, with a tenure of up to 60 days, to cover
your personal expenses.
Credit Facilities for working capital finance and capital expenditure requirements
Interest rates based on the Bank’s minimum lending rate for prime advances plus a risk margin.

Acceptance Credit for short term working capital finance (up to 180 days) on a re-discountable
bill basis and the interest or discount is market determined.

Documentary Letters of Credit (L/C’s) (Import or Export) to promotes international trade by

providing conditional but irrevocable guarantee on account of an importer or buyer in favor of an
exporter or seller. Upon conclusion of a contract, the buyer and seller agree on the
documentation required and the bank handles the documentation and guarantees payment to the
supplier if all documents are in order. Various types of L/C’s are available in the form of sight
L/C’s, usance L/C’s and standby L/C’s

Offshore Loans denominated in a foreign currency which have fixed interest and fixed tenor with
a maximum tenor of 180 days. We avails loans to customers on the basis of confirmed orders and
the bank handles all export documents involved. Interest is based on LIBOR plus a risk margin.

Order Financing or Discounting to provide short term finance to traders who require immediate
funding by discounting invoices due for payments from their creditors. The rate of discount is
market determined and linked to that of bankers’ acceptances.

Bank Guarantees issued on behalf of the Bank’s customers in favor of third parties, for specific
amounts period and purpose. The bank has a wide range of guarantees issued including as bid
bonds, guarantees and performance bonds.

Structured Finance designed to meet customers’ specific circumstances or requirements. The

objective for this is to create an optimal financing method that is self liquidating whilst
minimizing risk to clients and bank.

Leasing Hire Finance that grants a lessee the right to use an asset in return for periodic payments
to a lessor. The ownership of the asset remains with the lessor. Leases most frequently cover
such assets as motor vehicles, commercial trucks, buses, tractors and farming equipment, earth-
moving equipment and office equipment. It does occasionally extend to industrial machines such
as lathes, cutting equipment, food processing machines and refrigeration equipment.

CREDIT ALLOCATION FOR 2010

In November 2009, the Reserve Bank urged banking institutions to re-orient their lending
portfolios to provide for the following sectoral thresholds for lending activities. The period
between january to june 2010 the following credit allocations took place;

SECTOR % OF CREDIT
ALLOCATED
Agriculture 20.69
Distribution 20.54
Manufacturing 19.87

Mining 7.50

Individuals 5.29

Credit to the private sector grew from US$759.6 million in January to US$1 485.4 million in
November 2010. The major beneficiaries were agriculture (22.3%), manufacturing (20.3%),
distribution (20%), households (7.6%) and mining (6.7%). The loans to deposit ratio rose to
76.2% in October, before declining to 68.8% in November, 2010.

% COMPARISON OF SECTORIAL CREDIT FOR 2010

Allocation of credit to grew significantly in the last half period for 2010.Major increases in credit
is in the Agricultural sector, due to the favorable weather patterns expected.This saw the sector
getting about $600million in credit.

SECTORIAL LOAN APPROVALS JAN-DEC 2010 BANKS MARKET SHARE

Market share is defined as

CBZ Bank retained its top position commanding 33% of the market shar
CBZhad the largest market share in terms of deposits, 24% in advances and 16,3% total assets
as at December 31 2009. The top four commercial banks controlled 74% of the deposits during
the same period with Standard Charted 19% followed by Stanbic Bank 15% and Barclays at
10%.

Challenges currently faced by Banks

Banking institutions are still struggling after the economy restoration. 10 out of 25 financial
institutions have recorded losses in the first quarter of 2010 ending 31 March. Despite banks like
CBZ, CABS and Standard Chartered recording profits in excess of US$1 million during the first
quarter, they also continue to face challenges, in actual fact they should be earning more than this
if challenges are not as tough as they are.

Financial challenges
The Zimbabwean banks are currently failing to get enough finance to enable them to run its
business operations at the full capacity. The banks are struggling to meet the minimum capital
requirement set by the RBZ, even under a phased plan given by the central bank. The plan was to
pay half by September 30 last year and by March 31 to meet the fully prescribed capital levels.
15 out of 25 banking institutions had complied by end May. Paid-up capital requirements were
set as US$12,5 million for commercial banks and US$10 million for merchant banks and
building societies and more than 10 banks failed to pay up according to the phased plan. Low
level of capitalization has also been identified by Brownbridge (1998), as a common challenge
that is always faced by banks in developing nation especially locally owned banks..

Volatility of deposits

The deposits to banks are very volatile and hence low profits out of them. This is mainly caused
by a very high marginal propensity to consume of various economic agents who are earning low
salaries and hence unable to save, this causes people not having money staying in their bank
accounts except minimum balances. This has left banks having no money to invest and earn a
profit. Major deposits are done by companies as salaries and wages of their employees who will
then withdraw almost all of their salaries. The majority of workers are earning far less than the
Poverty Datum Line especially those in the Public Service, making it difficult for them to save.

High Overhead Costs

Due to the low-income generation ability of the banking institutions, their earnings cannot match
the overhead costs they are facing, especially salaries and wages given that they are not operating
at full capacity. The cost of paying workers salaries that are in line with the cost of living is too
heavy for the banks as they are not operating at full capacity and level of profitability is low.
Even if they opt for retrenchment, the packages to be given to the retrenched workforce will be a
challenge.

Leakage into hand-to-hand circulation

It is possible that, somewhere along the chain of deposit expansion, an individual who receives a
cheque will not leave all the proceeds in his/her bank account. Some money will definitely be
kept at home as some people still have low confidence in the local banks. Some money will find
its way to a foreign country like South Africa. All these are leakages that affect the deposit
creation process. In Zimbabwe, the financial dis-intermediation emanating from these factors
should result in a very low money multiplier such that cash injections into the banking sector do
not achieve the desired results.

Cash-based Transactions Prevailing

Due to the foreign currency shortages in the economy, and the unavailability of alternative
payments to business transactions, a lot of cash is in the hands of economic agents and they are
not willing to have it banked. Every trade taking place is on cash basis and generally no credit
transactions are preferable currently. Alternative methods for business transactions include credit
transfers, cheques, direct debits and payment cards (debit, credit, prepaid, ATMs and POS
networks).

Lack of lines of Credit

As banks like any other companies are willing to borrow elsewhere so that they expand business,
the lines of credit are not available. The few that are there are of short term nature and hence
very costly. The supply then cannot meet the demand. Small banks are the most affected as they
cant meet the requirements for getting credit even in the foreign market.

Central Banker not performing all its roles- Lender of last resort

Due to the fact that Zimbabwe has no currency of its own, it has adopted the multicurrency use
and mainly South African rands and the United States dollars are used for transactions, the
Central bank can nolonger perform all its roles especially being a lender of last resort. This gives
banks a hard time to find sources of finance. RBZ's problems also meant that banks would not be
able to obtain a refund of their statutory reserves for which they are entitled in case of a possible
decline in their deposits because these reserves are not backed by international reserves. In
normal environment, if liquidity tightens banks approach the RBZ for accommodation, then RBZ
reserves the right to grant assistance on its own terms.

No active Interbank Market

Currently there is no active interbank market, implying that those banks with no collateral to the
required conditions find it difficult to borrow so that they cover liquidity gaps. Lack of finances
remains a big challenge to the banking sector, as they are not able to expand their business in line
with current economic conditions and public demand for their services to be appreciable and
internationally competitive.

Insider lending

Insider lending also has contributed to bank failures and still remains a challenge to the
Zimbabwean banking sector and this often lead to bad debts. As an example most of the larger
local bank failures in Kenya, such as the Continental Bank, Trade Bank and Pan African Bank,
involved extensive insider lending, often to politicians, Brownbridge (1998). This is the same
scenario with Zimbabwean banks which have no choice but to perform insider lending. Nigeria
and Uganda also experienced the same.

Lending to high-risk borrowers through Adverse selection and Compliance to National Policies

Due to lack of investment opportunities, banks are now lending to high-risk borrowers through
adverse selection and compliance to national policies. Various government bodies have
negotiated with the banks to offer loans as part of Empowerment programmes to the youth and
woman who have no collateral securities. Many of such groups have failed to return the loans as
prescribed and hence are having losses. As the economy is from the depression, it is now
difficult to distinguish and identify credibility of clients for loan purposes.

Multinational banks

The recent bi-annual Monetary Policy Statement by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe Governor,
Dr Gideon Gono, brought to the for the economic sabotage by some multinational banks
operating in Zimbabwe.

As a result these sterilised deposits — not available to the domestic economy — cause the same
strain on the economy as the promised credit lines being held back by international agencies until
certain reforms have been fulfilled,. The three international banks,Stanbic,Standard Chartered
and Barclays are holding a combined total of US$688 million against a combined total loan book
of US$255 million, translating into a loan to deposit ratio of 37 percent. The domestic productive
sector is clearly being deprived of credit that’s being harnessed from the local market .

Solutions To Banking Sector Challenges

Banks plays very crucial roles in the economy and therefore their success means also the better
for the overall economy. As supported by Chen et al (2010), “Banking efficiency is essential for
a well-functioning economy.” Researches suggest that banks exert a first-order impact on
economic growth and development (e.g. Beck, Levine and Loayza, 2000). When banks operate
efficiently by directing society‘s savings toward those enterprises with highest expected social
returns and monitoring them carefully after lending, society‘s scarce resources are allocated
more efficiently. Therefore the banks challenges needs to be addressed both at corporate and
national level for the benefit of the economy and financial sector. Bank failures have to be
avoided as through the inter linkages of various sectors of the economy will transfer to
inefficiency of other sectors.

The remedies vary from those to be implemented by the individuals banks themselves,
collectively or in partnership, long term and short term remedies and national solutions to protect
the banks.

Cost-Cutting Measures

As the banks are striving to map their way to recovery, and as far as the rate of profitability
creation remains sticky at low levels, the only way to manage survival is through managing its
costs. They should engage in minimizing their costs. Some banks have already started cost
cutting measures through retrenchment of non-crucial staff and also offering voluntary
retrenchment. This helps in reducing overhead costs so that they match the income generation
capacity to current expenditure. Rationalization of branches is also one of the cost cutting
measures which banks may take. According to the Shutdown Rule, any organization should
shutdown if it can no longer cover its variable costs, hence the banks should make sure that they
minimize the variable costs so that they can continue operating accordingly whilst they find ways
of raising their revenue. They should also identify niche markets for their services to raise
revenue.
Organizing shifts rather than Retrenchment of staff

As retrenchment may mean losing employees permanently, it may also mean future problems
when right skills are in need. To conserve skills, the banking sector can liase with employees to
be place in shifts, for example working two weeks per month, at a reduced salary and benefits.
This ensures long term survival. The Barclays bank, apart from retrenchment, organized for such
operations for certain staff grades.

Proposed Mergers

Certain banks who have strived to meet the minimum capital requirement, even after the scheme
by the RBZ loosen the requirements, and have no hope to do so in the near future, should try to
merge together rather than closure. Merging helps as you bring assets together and ensures
survival, and in future you may also de-merge to retain your original brand. However this
measure has its own disadvantages as it leads to further retrenchment of staff as there is
duplication of work and various ranks in the organization.

IMF Solution

The IMF has proposed that banks that are not performing up to the required levels should close
down and only efficient banks should remain in operation. According to my assessment it may
be to early to announce bank closures rather all other alternatives should be given a trial. Bank
closures will have many disadvantages to the economy ranging from raising unemployment rates
and many other social costs involved. The inefficiency of the banks is not a result of their
inability to operate but its following a national crisis emanating elsewhere. Bank failures mostly
arised due to a liquidity crisis triggered by the economic meltdown, hyperinflation and
mismanagement, hence it’s a result of many factors.

Expanding sources of finance to International organizations

This is rather a task of the responsible authorities to negotiate on behalf of banks for international
loans. This helps to relieve the scarce sources of finance in the economy and allow banks to
cover liquidity gaps.

Developing alternative means of payments

The economy in general should find other ways to make business transactions other than direct
cash only as this affect investment path. Business should resort to accepting credit transaction,
use of cheques among other methods.
Conclusion
Banks are failing to adequately provide working capital to boost the economy and due to that the
industry is not being profitable. The sources of funds for lending are very limited. Deposits that
the banks show do not symbolize the actual amounts that these banks hold but the deposits that
passed through the institutions. It has been concluded that these deposits are transitory in nature
hence they are not the funds that can be used for lending. The loans to deposit ratios are justified
because the banks lack the sources of finance. Charges they collect on daily transactions, few
long term deposits and fresh capital injections are the only other sources of funds that banks have
and they are inadequate. Multiple currencying has brought significant changes to commercial
bank lending, mainly holding currency that has value although in real terms lending has slowed
down during the period under review.

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