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Systematically accounting for disaster losses and impacts

Impacts on local economies and p p poverty y

2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction Revealing Risk, Redefining Development

Two different spatial footprints p p

Extensive

Intensive

2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction Revealing Risk, Redefining Development

Exponential increase in economic losses due to Extensive Risk

2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction Revealing Risk, Redefining Development Revealing Risk, Redefining Development

Intensive mortality Extensive damage

Risk type

Hazard type Weatherrelated

Loss reports

Deaths

Houses destroyed

Houses damaged

Extensive

121,373

95.9

48,392

15.5

739,002

24.1

3,654,596

48.3

Extensive

Geological Weatherrelated

4,259

3.4

2,406

0.8

40,684

1.3

226,545

3.0

Intensive

801

0.6

58,559

18.7

1,618,682

52.7

3,235,176

42.7

Intensive

Geological

187

0.1

203,524

65.0

671,980

21.9

453,094

6.0

TOTAL

126,620

100.0

312,881

100.0

3,070,348

100.0

7,569,411

100.0

2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction Revealing Risk, Redefining Development Revealing Risk, Redefining Development

Extensive Risk is also the major contributor to mortality in developed countries

2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction Revealing Risk, Redefining Development Revealing Risk, Redefining Development

Systematically account for disaster losses y y

Status of Progress in building National Disaster Datasets June 2011


Number of education facilities damaged (1970-2009) per province (Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Panama, Peru, Ecuador Panama Peru Venezuela)

2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction Revealing Risk, Redefining Development

GAR Risk Assessments: Global level

2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction Revealing Risk, Redefining Development Revealing Risk, Redefining Development

GAR risk methodology at the national level: Earthquake risk assessment in Indonesia

2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction Revealing Risk, Redefining Development

GAR risk methodology at the national level: Earthquake risk assessment in Indonesia

2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction Revealing Risk, Redefining Development

New Global Risk Update: Landslide risk in Indonesia

2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction Revealing Risk, Redefining Development Revealing Risk, Redefining Development

New Global Risk Update: Landslide risk in Indonesia

2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction Revealing Risk, Redefining Development Revealing Risk, Redefining Development

Comprehensive Approach for Probabilistic Risk Assessment

CAPRA
Development of a Hybrid Risk Assessment Model

2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction Revealing Risk, Redefining Development Revealing Risk, Redefining Development

Probabilistic Risk Evaluation


Hazard Module Exposure Module Vulnerability Module

Disaster Loss Data

Damage & Loss Module (Risk)

Risk Retention and Financial Risk Transfer

Land Use Planning & Zoning

Emergency Response Scenarios & Planning

Cost-Benefit Analysis for Prevention / Mitigation

2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction Revealing Risk, Redefining Development Revealing Risk, Redefining Development

Probabilistic Risk Assessment Analytical Loss Exceedance Curves


Intensity exceedance curve for each computation site T = 100 years Hazard maps for several return periods = 0.01

Exceedac cerate

T =500 years

= 0.002

T= 1000 years = 0.001 0 001

Intensitymeasure
2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction Revealing Risk, Redefining Development Revealing Risk, Redefining Development

Loss Exceedance Curves


1,000 100
Lossexceed dancerate[1/year]

0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1,000 1 000 10,000 , 100,000 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000
Returnpe eriod [years]

10 1 0.1 01 0.01 0.001 0 001 0.0001

0.00001

Economicloss[Million$USD]

HistoriceventsandlossexceedancecurveforColombia

Analyticalcurve

2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction Revealing Risk, Redefining Development Revealing Risk, Redefining Development

Extensive Risk Assessment: Empirical Loss Exceedance Curves

HistoriceventsandlossexceedancecurveforColombia

2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction Revealing Risk, Redefining Development Revealing Risk, Redefining Development

Empirical Loss Exceedance Curves and Economic Valuation built in DesInventar Valuation,

DesInventarlossexceedancecurveforColombia

2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction Revealing Risk, Redefining Development Revealing Risk, Redefining Development

Reveal risk: integrate analytical and p empirical views


Extensive

Intensive te s e

2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction Revealing Risk, Redefining Development Revealing Risk, Redefining Development

CAPRA Hybrid models for 3 countries

2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction Revealing Risk, Redefining Development Revealing Risk, Redefining Development

Risk retention and transfer structure


Total exposed value l

Unprotected
PML

Long term actions (C t bond, L t ti (Cat b d taxes, long term loans, etc) National government IDBs / World Bank
Upper limit

TRANSFER

Insurance and reinsurance

Lower limit

Contingent loan RETENTION Reserve fund


Deductible

2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction Revealing Risk, Redefining Development Revealing Risk, Redefining Development

THANK YOU
2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction Revealing Risk, Redefining Development Revealing Risk, Redefining Development

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