PROBABILITY 1. (A) A bag contains 7 white, 6 red, and 5 black balls. Two balls are drawn at random.

Find the probability that they will both be white. (B) A bag contains 10 white, 6 red, 4 black and 7 blue balls. 5 balls are drawn at random. What is the probability that 2 of them are red and one black? 2. (A) From a set of raffle tickets numbered 1 to 100, three are drawn at random. What is the probability that all the tickets are odd-numbered? (B) A number is chosen from each of the two sets: (1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9); (4,5,6,7,8,9) If p1 is the probability that sum of two numbers be 10 and p2 the probability that their sum be 8, find p1+p2. (C) Two different digits are chosen at random from the set 2,38. Show that the probability that the sum of digits will be equal to 5 is the same as the probability that their sum will exceed 13, each being 1/14. Also show that the chance of both digits exceeding 5 is 3/28. 3 Seven cards are drawn at random from a pack of 52 cards. What is the probability that 4 will be red and 3 black? 4. From a group of 3 Indians, 4 Pakistanis and 5 Americans a subcommittee of four people is selected by lots. Find the probability that the subcommittee will consist of (i) 2 Indians and 2 Pakistanis (ii) 1 Indian, 1 Pakistani and 2 Americans 5. One tickets is drawn at random from a bag containing 30 tickets numbered from 1 to 30. Find the probability that, (a) It is multiple of 5 or 7 (b) It is multiple of 3 or 5 6. The odds against A solving a problem are 8: 6 and the odds in favor of solving the same problem are 14: 10. What is the probability that if both of them try the problem would be solved? 7. What is the probability of getting exactly 3 heads in five throws of a single coin? 8. If N people are seated at a round table, what is the probability that two named individuals will be neighbors? 9. Four cards are drawn without replacement. What is the chance that they are all of different suits? 10. Four cards are drawn without replacement. What is the chance that they all have the same value? 11. The letter of word article are arranged at random. Find the probability that the vowels may occupy the even places. (Hint- based on the rules of Permutation) 12. A bag contains 5 black and 7 white balls. A ball is drawn out of it and replaced in the bag. Then a ball is drawn again. What is the probability that (i) both the balls drawn were black (ii) both were white (iii) the first ball was white and the second black (iv) the first ball was black and the second white. 13. Three students A, B and C are given a problem in statistics. The probabilities of their solving the problem are 3/4, 2/4

PROBABILITY and 1/4 respectively. What is the probability that if all of them try the problem would be solved? 14. What is the probability of getting exactly two Heads in a single throw of three coins? 15. What is the probability of getting exactly three Heads in five throws of a single coin? CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY 1. Find the probability of drawing two kings from a pack of cards in two successive draws, the card drawn not being replaced. 2. A bag contains 3 red and 4 white balls. Two draws are made without replacement; what is the probability that both the balls are red? 3. A bag contains 4 white and 6 red balls. Two draws of one ball each are made without replacement. What is the probability that one is red and the other white? 4. Four cards are drawn without replacement. What is the probability that they are all Aces? 5. Four cards are drawn without replacement. What is the chance that they all have the same value? 6. Four cards are drawn without replacement. What is the chance that they are all of different suits? 7. Find the probability that a man asked to form a two digit number out of 2, 3, 5, 7, 9 would form 79 when, (a) Repetitions are not allowed (b) Repetitions are allowed 8. In a single throw with 2 dice find the chance of throwing (i) 8 and (ii) 11. 9. Find the chance of throwing at least an ace in a single throw with 2 dice. 10 A and B throw with three dice. If A throws 14 find Bs chance of throwing a higher number. 11. The letter of the word article is arranged at random. Find the probability that the vowels may occupy the even places. 12. A sub-committee of 6 members is to be formed out of a group of 7 men and 4 ladies. Calculate the probability that the sub-committee will consist of (i) exactly 2 ladies and (ii) at least two ladies. 13. A husband and a wife appear in an interview for two vacancies in the same post. The probability of husbands selection is 1/7 and that of wifes selection is 1/5. What is the probability that: (a) Both of them will be selected; (b) Only one of them will be selected; (c) None of them will be selected 14. The probability that a boy will get a scholarship is 0.90, and a girl will get is 0.80. What is the probability that at least one of them will get the scholarship? give 4 white and the second 4 black balls in each case. 15. A problem in statistics is given to three students A B and C whose chances of solving it are 1/3, 1/4 and 1/5 respectively. Find the probability that the problem would be solved.

PROBABILITY 21. A candidate is interviewed for 3 posts. For the first post there are 3 candidates, for the second there are 4, and for the third there are 2. What are chances of his getting at least one post? 22. The records of 400 examinees are given below: Score Educational Qualification Total BA BSc BCom < 50 90 30 60 180 50-60 20 70 70 160 >60 10 30 20 60 Total 120 130 150 400 If an examinee is selected from this group of examinees, find (a) the probability that he is a commerce graduate (b) the probability that he is a science graduate given that his score is above 60 (c) the probability that his score is below 50, given that he is a BA (Ans. (a) 3/8, (b)
1/2, (c) 3/4)

17. The probability that India wins a cricket test match against England is given to be 1/3. If India and England play three test matches, what is the probability that: (i) India will lose all the three matches; (ii) India will win at least one test match. 18. Five men in a company of 20 are graduates. If 3 men are picked out of the 20 at random, what is the probability that they are all graduates? What is the probability of at least one graduate? 19. The probability that a contractor will get a plumbing contract is 2/3, and the probability that he will not get an electric contract is 5/9. If the probability of getting any one contract is 4/5 what is the probability that he will get both the contracts? 20. From a computer tally based on employee records, the Personnel Manager of a large manufacturing firm finds that 15 percent of the firms employees are supervisors and 25 percent of the firms employees are college graduates. He also discovers that 5 percent of the firms employees are both supervisors and college graduates. Suppose an employee is selected at random from the firms personnel record. Find the (i) Probability of selecting person who is both a college graduate and a supervisor. (ii) Probability of selecting a person who is neither a supervisor nor a college graduate.

22. We have data from 100 economists in academics, private sector, and government concerning their opinions whether the economy would be stable, expand or contract in the near future. However, a part of the information was lost. Based on the remaining data you are required to create a probability table.
Economist s Academics Private Sector (R) Govt. (G) Total Economy Stable (S) 25 Expanding (E) 7 5 40 8 Contracting (C) 20 22 13 Total

From the above table, find: (i) P(A), (ii) P(E), (iii) P(A E), (iv) P(G C), (v) P(E/G), (vi) P(G/E)
(Ans. (i) 0.35, (ii) 0.20, (iii) 0, (iv) 8/13, (v) 8/35)

PROBABILITY BAYES THEOREM AND INVERSE PROBABILITY 1. Suppose the probability that a particular student will get a first division in the annual examination is 1/10. Suppose he appeared in 10 class tests and obtained first division in 4 of them. What is the probability now that the student will get a first division in the annual examination? 2. Suppose the probability of As winning a prize in a Lottery is 1/10. Suppose C, who speaks truth 2 times out of 3 informs A that he has won a prize. What is the probability that A has actually won a prize after Cs information? 3. Suppose that A is known to tell the truth in five cases out of six and he states that a white ball was drawn from a bag containing 9 black and one white ball; what is the probability that the white ball was really drawn? 4. (a) The probability that a certain event happened was 1/10, and, A, who is accurate in 49 cases out of 50, said that it happened. B agrees with A in stating that the event happened. B is accurate in 9 cases out of 10. What is the probability that it actually did occur? (b) Suppose if C, who is accurate in 7 cases out of 10, denies that the event mentioned above happened, what is the probability that it happened? 5. Suppose a black ball has been drawn from one of three bags, the first containing three black balls and seven white, the second five black balls and three white, the third eight black balls and four white; what is the probability that it was drawn from the first bag?

JOINT AND MARGINAL PROBABILITIES 6. In a bolt factory machines A, B and C manufacture respectively 25%, 35% and 40% of the total. Of their output 5, 4, 2 percent are defective bolts. A bolt is drawn at random from the product and is found to be defective. What are the probabilities that it was manufactured by machines A, B and C? 7. A bag contains 1 white and 9 black balls. P who speaks the truth in 5 cases out of six says that a white ball was drawn from a bag. What is the probability that a white ball was really drawn from the bag? 8. A factory has two machines A and B. Past records show that machine A produces 30% of the total output and machine B the remaining 70%. Machine A produces 5% defective articles and machine B 1% defective items. An item is drawn at random and found to be defective what is the probability that it was produced (a) by machine A (b) by machine B. 9. A coin is tossed. If it turns up heads, two balls will be drawn from urn A, otherwise two balls will be drawn from urn B. Urn A contains 3 black and 5 white balls. Urn B contains 7 black and 1 white ball. In both cases selections are to be made with replacements. What is the probability that Urn A is used given that both the balls drawn are black? 10. A manufacturing firm produces steel pipes in three plants with daily production volume of 500, 1000 and 2000 units respectively. According to past experience it is known that the

PROBABILITY fraction of defective output produced by the three plants are respectively .005, . 008 and .010. If a pipe is selected from a days total production and found to be defective find out: (i) From which plant the pipe came? (ii) What is the probability that it came from the first plant? 11. A company has two manufacture scooters. Plant I manufactures 80% of the scooters, and plant II manufactures 20%. At plant I 85 out of 100 scooters are rated standard quality or better. At plant II only 65 out of 100 scooters are rated standard quality or better. (i) What is the probability that a Scooter selected at random came from plant I if it is known that the scooter is of standard quality? (ii) What is the probability that a Scooter selected at random came from plant II if it is known that the scooter is of standard quality? 12. Two sets of candidates are competing for the positions on the Board of Directors of a company. The probabilities that the first and the second sets will win are 0.6 and 0.4 respectively. If the first set wins, the probability of introducing a new product is 0.8 and corresponding probability if the second set wins is 0.3. What is the probability that the product will be introduced? MATHAMATICAL EXPECTATION 13. A throws a coin 3 times. If he gets a head all the three times he is to get a prize of Rs.160. The entry fee for the game is Rs.16. What is the mathematical expectation of A? 14. If it rains a dealer in umbrella can earn Rs.300/- per day; if it does not rain he can lose Rs.80/- per day. What is his expectation if the probability of a rainy day is 0.57? 15. The probability that there is at least one error in an accounts statement prepared by A is 0.2 and for B and C they are 0.25 and 0.4 respectively. A, B and C prepared 10, 16 and 20 statements respectively. Find the expected number of correct statements in all. 16. A die is thrown at random what is the expectation of the number on it? 17. In a random throw of 2 dice what is the expectation of: (i) The sum of the points on them? (ii) The product of the points on them? 18. If three coins are tossed find the expectation of the variance of the number of heads. 18. Anil company estimates the net profit on a new product it is launching to be Rs.30, 00,000 during the first year if it is successful; Rs.10, 00,000 if is moderately successful and a loss of Rs.10, 00,000 if it is unsuccessful. The firm assigns the following probabilities to the first year prospects for the product successful 0.15, moderately successful 0.25. What are the expected values and standard deviation of the first year net profit for this product? ----***----