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Problema 18
Problema 18
ORIGIN 1
Problema 18:
Pe timpul experimentarilor unui lot de 10 autocamioane de teren s-au inregistrat ruperi la axa planetara
din dreapta fata. Sa se determine parametrii legii Weibull care modeleaza aceasta distributie a
defectiunilor. Momentele defectarilor sunt exprimate in km parcursi.
x1
48203
28427
42913
45218
38033
33871
40102
31175
24791
35338
,
:
n 10 :
r - numarul de elemente defecte in cazul in care esntionul este epuizat
r n :
i 1 r .. :
x1
1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
4
4.8210
4
2.84310
4
4.29110
4
4.52210
4
3.80310
4
3.38710
4
4.0110
4
3.11810
4
2.47910
4
3.53410
x1 sort x1 ( ) :
x1
1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
4
2.47910
4
2.84310
4
3.11810
4
3.38710
4
3.53410
4
3.80310
4
4.0110
4
4.29110
4
4.52210
4
4.8210
,
ln x1
i
a ( )
1
1
1
]
1
r
i
ln ln
1
1 F
i
,
1
r
i
ln x1
i
a ( )
r
1
r
i
ln x1
i
a ( )
2
1
r
i
ln x1
i
a ( )
,
2
:
x1 ( ) exp
1
r
i
ln ln
1
1 F
i
,
1
r
i
ln x1
i
a ( )
2
1
r
i
ln ln
1
1 F
i
,
ln x1
i
a ( )
1
1
1
]
1
r
i
ln x1
i
a ( )
r
1
r
i
ln x1
i
a ( )
2
1
r
i
ln x1
i
a ( )
,
2
1
x1 ( )
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
]
:
x1 ( ) 5.736
x1 ( ) 3.973 10
4
b) prin metoda verosimilitatii maxime
a x1 ( ) :
a x1 ( ) :
Ec1 b b , ( )
1
n
i
x1
i
( )
b
ln x1
i
( )
1
]
1
n
i
x1
i
( )
b
1
n
i
ln x1
i
( )
n
+
1
b
:
Ec2 b b , ( )
1
n
i
x1
i
( )
b
n
b
b
:
b 1 : b 1 :
Given
Ec1 b b , ( ) 0
Ec2 b b , ( ) 0
Find b b , ( )
5.005
3.654 10
4
qchisq 1
2
2n ,
,
:
max
2
1
n
i
x1
i
( )
b
qchisq
2
2n ,
,
:
min 2.344 10
4
max 6.784 10
4
Verificarea concordantei dintre repartitia teoretica si rezultatele experimentale
n >
Fweibulla y ( ) 1 exp
x1
a
,
a
1
1
]
:
abatereaa Fweibulla x1 ( ) F :
Fweibullb y ( ) 1 exp
x1
b
,
b
1
1
]
:
abatereab Fweibullb x1 ( ) F :
Verificarea grafica cu ajutorul retelelor de probabilitate
Prob ln ln
1
1 F
,
:
Curbaa a ln
x1
a
,
:
Curbab b ln
x1
a
,
:
10 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.8
3
2
1
0
1
2
Prob
Curbaa
Curbab
ln x1 ( )
Concluzie: Se constata o buna concordanta intre repartitia teoretica si cea experimentala