Development of a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Middle East NPPs

Paul C. Rizzo June 25, 2010

Paul C. Rizzo Associates, Inc.

ENGINEERS & CONSULTANTS

Profile of RIZZO Associates

International Consulting Engineers Private Specialize in Nuclear Siting and Development 300 employees in 14 world wide offices

Senior staff have 20 edit 40 years style to Master title of experience Click to
Branches in Czech Republic, Russia, Italy, Argentina, Peru, Chile, UAE, South Africa, Australia and the UK

RIZZO SERVICES NUCLEAR INDUSTRY

Early Strategic Program Consulting National Program Development Regulatory Framework Development
Licensing & Permitting Program Safety & Environmental

Site Selection Site Characterization Vendor Selection & Bidding Licensing Submittal for Construction/Operation Program & Construction Management
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WORLD WIDE EXPERIENCE

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SOME OBSERVATIONS (1)

Based on Seismic Hazard analysis in 9 MidEast Countries
PSHAs for NPP Sites PSHAs for Non-NPP Sites Total 7 2 9

Local Governments and Owners tend to disbelieve the results of PSHAs for NPPs
NPPs - designed for 10,000 yr to 25,000 yr return periods Non-NPPs designed for 1000 yr to 2500 yr return periods NPP Core Damage Analysis based on >1,000,000 yr event
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SOME OBSERVATIONS (2)

Middle East Seismogenic Features
Moving Plate Boundaries
Anatolian Fault Jordan Rift Zone Red Sea Rift Zone Iranian Subduction Zone Makran Subduction Zone

Numerous Capable Intra-Plate Faults

Direct Association with Plate Boundaries Indirect Association with Plate Boundaries

Events associated with oil/gas extraction

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SOME OBSERVATIONS (3)

Seismic Catalogs
Basis for all PSHAs Middle East Catalogs are often >2500 yrs duration
Europe - ~800 years USA 250 years

Scholarly Works in various languages Primarily historical - not recorded events Supplement with International Seismological Center Database

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SOME OBSERVATIONS (4)

Recording Stations & Networks are new but sophisticated Seismology expertise is very well developed many local experts working in the field
Need to be familiarized with NPP Regulations/Practice May not have most recent software and NNP precedents for support
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DETERMINISTIC OR PROBABILISTIC ?

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DETERMINISTIC ANALYSIS
Advantages
Adequate for What if Scenarios Adequate where one feature controls the hazard Useful to understand seismic attenuation

Disadvantages
Poor management of uncertainty Can not assess various what if scenarios Difficult to compute reliable spectral ordinates

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PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS
Advantages
Manage Uncertainty Treats Multiple sources concurrently More mathematical rigor Can incorporate input from many experts
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Disadvantages
Complex computation Requires detailed investigation to define input to analysis (A MUST!)

Can be Controversial, Expensive

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COMPONENTS OF SITE HAZARD STUDY

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GEOLOGIC/ SEISMOLOGIC RESEARCH

SEISMICITY ANALYSIS

ENGINEERING ANALYSIS

RECURRENCE

CONTROLLING EVENTS

EARTHQUAKE CATALOG

GROUND MOTION MODELS

FIELD INVESTIGATION

SEISMIC SOURCES

LOGIC TREES

SITE AMPLIFICATION

GEOLOGIC (*) STUDY

PSHA HAZARD AT ROCK

GMRS
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(*) TOPIC NOT DISCUSSED IN CURRENT PRESENTATION

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ENGINEERING ANALYSIS - EPR

Ground Motion
B S

Bearing Capacity Settlement

S
S

B B

MODEL BASE

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SEISMIC SOURCES
Criteria for Definition
Tectonic processes and historical seismicity Geology Uniform Hazard

Area Sources
Areas associated with observed seismicity; a tectonic process is not well identified Characterized by Gutenberg Richter relationship

Fault Sources a particular tectonic feature Background seismicity

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EXAMPLE SOURCE ZONES PELINDABA

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EXAMPLE SOURCE ZONES MIDDLE EAST

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EARTHQUAKE CATALOG
List of earthquakes
Time of occurrence Magnitude Location

Used to define parameters of seismic sources

Recurrence rates B-value Probability of exceeding a given magnitude
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EARTHQUAKE CATALOG (EXAMPLE)

Site in the Middle East

SITE

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COMPONENTS OF SITE HAZARD STUDY

1
GEOLOGIC/ SEISMOLOGIC RESEARCH

SEISMICITY ANALYSIS

ENGINEERING ANALYSIS

RECURRENCE

CONTROLLING EVENTS

EARTHQUAKE CATALOG

GROUND MOTION MODELS

FIELD INVESTIGATION

SEISMIC SOURCES

LOGIC TREES

SITE AMPLIFICATION

GEOLOGIC (*) STUDY

PSHA HAZARD AT ROCK

GMRS
19

(*) TOPIC NOT DISCUSSED IN CURRENT PRESENTATION

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GROUND MOTION MODELS

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TYPICAL RESULTS - HAZARD CURVES

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TYPICAL RESULTS - UHRS

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COMPONENTS OF SITE HAZARD STUDY

1
GEOLOGIC/ SEISMOLOGIC RESEARCH

SEISMICITY ANALYSIS

ENGINEERING ANALYSIS

RECURRENCE

CONTROLLING EVENTS

EARTHQUAKE CATALOG

GROUND MOTION MODELS

FIELD INVESTIGATION

SEISMIC SOURCES

LOGIC TREES

SITE AMPLIFICATION

GEOLOGIC (*) STUDY

PSHA HAZARD AT ROCK

GMRS
23

(*) TOPIC NOT DISCUSSED IN CURRENT PRESENTATION

Paul C. Rizzo Associates, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential Work Product

ENGINEERING ANALYSIS - EPR

Foundation Interfaces
B S

Bearing Capacity Settlement

S
S

B B

MODEL BASE

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TYPICAL SITE INVESTIGATION

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TYPICAL - AMPLIFICATION FUNCTION

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GROUND MOTION RESPONSE SPECTRA

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STABILITY ANALYSIS
Bearing Capacity, Settlement, Liquefaction

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SALUTATIONS

The RIZZO People thank you for your time and consideration!

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