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7.

3
a) Month (t) At Ft e /e/
1 62.7 62.7000 0.0000 0.0000
2 63.9 62.7000 1.2000 1.2000
3 68 63.1800 4.8200 4.8200 c)i) MAD= 1.89
4 66.4 65.1080 1.2920 1.2920
5 67.2 65.6248 1.5752 1.5752
6 65.8 66.2549 -0.4549 0.4549
7 68.2 66.0729 2.1271 2.1271
8 69.3 66.9238 2.3762 2.3762
9 67.2 67.8743 -0.6743 0.6743
10 70.1 67.6046 2.4954 2.4954
11 68.6027

b) Month (x) Price (y) x2 xy


1 62.7 1 62.7 b= 0.6073
2 63.9 4 127.8 a= 63.5400
3 68 9 204
4 66.4 16 265.6 y=63.54+0.6073x
5 67.2 25 336
6 65.8 36 394.8
7 68.2 49 477.4
8 69.3 64 554.4 c)ii) MAD= 1.1
9 67.2 81 604.8
10 70.1 100 701
TOTALS 55 668.8 385 3728.5

7.4
a) Year Quarter Demand CMA4 CMA2 Seas. Ind.
1 1 210 Year 1
2 300 1
3 186 234.5 243.25 0.7646 2 1.0566
4 242 252 257 0.9416 3 1.0390
2 1 280 262 265 1.0566 AVG - SR 1.0478
2 340 268 275.25 1.2352 SR Adj 1.0464
3 210 282.5 285 0.7368
4 300 287.5 287.5 1.0435
3 1 300 287.5 288.75 1.0390
2 340 290 285 1.1930
3 220 280
4 260

b) Year (x) Demand (y) x2 xy b= 91


1 938 1 938 a= 880.67
2 1130 4 2260
3 1120 9 3360 y=880.6667+91x
TOTALS 6 3188 14 6558

Forecast for Year 4 Quarter


1 2 3 4
325.6117 377.3006 233.3031 308.4494
7.5
a) Year Quarter Demand CMA4 CMA2 Seas. Ind.
1 1 105 Year 1
2 150 1
3 93 117.25 121.63 0.7646 2 1.0566
4 121 126 128.5 0.9416 3 1.0390
2 1 140 131 132.5 1.0566 AVG - SR 1.0478
2 170 134 137.63 1.2352 SR Adj 1.0464
3 105 141.25 142.5 0.7368
4 150 143.75 143.75 1.0435
3 1 150 143.75 144.38 1.0390
2 170 145 142.5 1.1930
3 110 140
4 130

b) Year (x) Demand (y) x2 xy b= 45.5


1 469 1 469 a= 440.33
2 565 4 1130
3 560 9 1680 y=440.3333+45.5x
TOTALS 6 1594 14 3279

Forecast for Year 4 Quarter


1 2 3 4
162.8058 188.6503 116.6516 154.2247

c) Quarter (x) Demand Des. D (y) x2 xy Quarter (x)


1 105 100.34 1 100.34 b= 2.8593
2 150 123.71 4 247.42 a= 114.4898
3 93 124.03 9 372.1
4 121 122.06 16 488.25 y=114.4898+2.8593x
5 140 133.79 25 668.96
6 170 140.21 36 841.24
7 105 140.04 49 980.26
8 150 151.32 64 1210.53
9 150 143.35 81 1290.14
10 170 140.21 100 1402.06
11 110 146.71 121 1613.76
12 130 131.14 144 1573.69
TOTALS 78 1594 1596.9 650 10788.76

d) Year Quarter Demand Ft e /e/ e2


1 1 105 127.0940 -22.0940 22.0940 488.14
2 150 147.2682 2.7318 2.7318 7.46
3 93 91.0695 1.9305 1.9305 3.73
4 121 120.4016 0.5984 0.5984 0.36
2 1 140 138.9968 1.0032 1.0032 1.01
2 170 161.0604 8.9396 8.9396 79.92
3 105 99.5984 5.4016 5.4016 29.18
4 150 131.6777 18.3223 18.3223 335.71
3 1 150 150.8996 -0.8996 0.8996 0.81
2 170 174.8526 -4.8526 4.8526 23.55
3 110 108.1274 1.8726 1.8726 3.51
4 130 142.9537 -12.9537 12.9537 167.80

Year Quarter Demand Ft e /e/ e2


1 1 105 122.79 -17.7941 17.7941 316.63
2 150 145.75 4.2473 4.2473 18.04
3 93 92.28 0.7238 0.7238 0.52
4 121 124.83 -3.8314 3.8314 14.68
2 1 140 134.76 5.2380 5.2380 27.44
2 170 159.62 10.3797 10.3797 107.74
3 105 100.85 4.1482 4.1482 17.21
4 150 136.17 13.8309 13.8309 191.29
3 1 150 146.73 3.2701 3.2701 10.69
2 170 173.49 -3.4879 3.4879 12.17
3 110 109.43 0.5726 0.5726 0.33
4 130 147.51 -17.5068 17.5068 306.49

7.6
a) Week Sales Ft e /e/
1 16
2 18 c)i) MAD= 5.67
3 14
4 10 16.00 -6.00 6.00
5 20 14.00 6.00 6.00
6 22 14.67 7.33 7.33
7 21 17.33 3.67 3.67

b) Week At Ft e /e/
1 16 16.0000 0.00 0.00
2 18 16.0000 2.00 2.00 c)ii) MAD= 5.13
3 14 16.6000 -2.60 2.60
4 10 15.8200 -5.82 5.82
5 20 14.0740 5.93 5.93
6 22 15.8518 6.15 6.15
7 21 17.6963 3.30 3.30
Month (x) Ft /e/
1 64.15 1.45
2 64.75 0.85
3 65.36 2.64
4 65.97 0.43
5 66.58 0.62
6 67.18 1.38
7 67.79 0.41
8 68.4 0.9
9 69.01 1.81
10 69.61 0.49
11 70.22
12 70.83

Quarter
2 3 4
0.7646 0.9416
1.2352 0.7368 1.0435
1.1930 Total
1.2141 0.7507 0.9926 4.0052
1.2125 0.7498 0.9913 4.0000

Year Ft
1 971.67
2 1062.67
3 1153.67
4 1244.67
Quarter
2 3 4
0.7646 0.9416
1.2352 0.7368 1.0435
1.1930 Total
1.2141 0.7507 0.9926 4.0052
1.2125 0.7498 0.9913 4.0000

Year Ft
1 485.83
2 531.33
3 576.83
4 622.33

Quarter (x) Des. Ft (y) Ft


1 117.35 122.79
2 120.21 145.75
3 123.07 92.28
4 125.93 124.83
5 128.79 134.76
6 131.65 159.62
7 134.5 100.85
8 137.36 136.17
9 140.22 146.73
10 143.08 173.49
11 145.94 109.43
12 148.8 147.51
13 151.66 158.7
14 154.52 187.36
15 157.38 118
16 160.24 158.84

MADb= 6.80

MSEb= 95.10
MADc= 7.09

MSEc= 85.27