Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 14

Jad Darwiche 5569435

7.3
a) Month (t) At Ft e /e/
1 62.7 62.7000 0.0000 0.0000
2 63.9 62.7000 1.2000 1.2000
3 68 63.1800 4.8200 4.8200 c)i) MAD= 1.89
4 66.4 65.1080 1.2920 1.2920
5 67.2 65.6248 1.5752 1.5752
6 65.8 66.2549 -0.4549 0.4549
7 68.2 66.0729 2.1271 2.1271
8 69.3 66.9238 2.3762 2.3762
9 67.2 67.8743 -0.6743 0.6743
10 70.1 67.6046 2.4954 2.4954
11 68.6027

b) Month (x) Price (y) x2 xy


1 62.7 1 62.7 b= 0.6073
2 63.9 4 127.8 a= 63.5400
3 68 9 204
4 66.4 16 265.6 y=63.54+0.6073x
5 67.2 25 336
6 65.8 36 394.8
7 68.2 49 477.4
8 69.3 64 554.4 c)ii) MAD= 1.1
9 67.2 81 604.8
10 70.1 100 701
TOTALS 55 668.8 385 3728.5

7.4
a) Year Quarter Demand CMA4 CMA2 Seas. Ind.
1 1 210 Year 1
2 300 1
3 186 234.5 243.25 0.7646 2 1.0566
4 242 252 257 0.9416 3 1.0390
2 1 280 262 265 1.0566 AVG - SR 1.0478
2 340 268 275.25 1.2352 SR Adj 1.0464
3 210 282.5 285 0.7368
4 300 287.5 287.5 1.0435
3 1 300 287.5 288.75 1.0390
2 340 290 285 1.1930
3 220 280
4 260

b) Year (x) Demand (y) x2 xy b= 91


1 938 1 938 a= 880.67
2 1130 4 2260
3 1120 9 3360 y=880.6667+91x
TOTALS 6 3188 14 6558
Forecast for Year 4 Quarter
1 2 3 4
325.6117 377.3006 233.3031 308.4494

7.5
a) Year Quarter Demand CMA4 CMA2 Seas. Ind.
1 1 105 Year 1
2 150 1
3 93 117.25 121.63 0.7646 2 1.0566
4 121 126 128.5 0.9416 3 1.0390
2 1 140 131 132.5 1.0566 AVG - SR 1.0478
2 170 134 137.63 1.2352 SR Adj 1.0464
3 105 141.25 142.5 0.7368
4 150 143.75 143.75 1.0435
3 1 150 143.75 144.38 1.0390
2 170 145 142.5 1.1930
3 110 140
4 130

b) Year (x) Demand (y) x2 xy b= 45.5


1 469 1 469 a= 440.33
2 565 4 1130
3 560 9 1680 y=440.3333+45.5x
TOTALS 6 1594 14 3279

Forecast for Year 4 Quarter


1 2 3 4
162.8058 188.6503 116.6516 154.2247

c) Quarter (x) Demand Des. D (y) x2 xy Quarter (x)


1 105 100.34 1 100.34 b= 2.8593
2 150 123.71 4 247.42 a= 114.4898
3 93 124.03 9 372.1
4 121 122.06 16 488.25 y=114.4898+2.8593x
5 140 133.79 25 668.96
6 170 140.21 36 841.24
7 105 140.04 49 980.26
8 150 151.32 64 1210.53
9 150 143.35 81 1290.14
10 170 140.21 100 1402.06
11 110 146.71 121 1613.76
12 130 131.14 144 1573.69
TOTALS 78 1594 1596.9 650 10788.76

d) Year Quarter Demand Ft e /e/ e2


1 1 105 127.0940 -22.0940 22.0940 488.14
2 150 147.2682 2.7318 2.7318 7.46
3 93 91.0695 1.9305 1.9305 3.73
4 121 120.4016 0.5984 0.5984 0.36
2 1 140 138.9968 1.0032 1.0032 1.01
2 170 161.0604 8.9396 8.9396 79.92
3 105 99.5984 5.4016 5.4016 29.18
4 150 131.6777 18.3223 18.3223 335.71
3 1 150 150.8996 -0.8996 0.8996 0.81
2 170 174.8526 -4.8526 4.8526 23.55
3 110 108.1274 1.8726 1.8726 3.51
4 130 142.9537 -12.9537 12.9537 167.80

Year Quarter Demand Ft e /e/ e2


1 1 105 122.79 -17.7941 17.7941 316.63
2 150 145.75 4.2473 4.2473 18.04
3 93 92.28 0.7238 0.7238 0.52
4 121 124.83 -3.8314 3.8314 14.68
2 1 140 134.76 5.2380 5.2380 27.44
2 170 159.62 10.3797 10.3797 107.74
3 105 100.85 4.1482 4.1482 17.21
4 150 136.17 13.8309 13.8309 191.29
3 1 150 146.73 3.2701 3.2701 10.69
2 170 173.49 -3.4879 3.4879 12.17
3 110 109.43 0.5726 0.5726 0.33
4 130 147.51 -17.5068 17.5068 306.49

7.6
a) Week Sales Ft e /e/
1 16
2 18 c)i) MAD= 5.67
3 14
4 10 16.00 -6.00 6.00
5 20 14.00 6.00 6.00
6 22 14.67 7.33 7.33
7 21 17.33 3.67 3.67

b) Week At Ft e /e/
1 16 16.0000 0.00 0.00
2 18 16.0000 2.00 2.00 c)ii) MAD= 5.13
3 14 16.6000 -2.60 2.60
4 10 15.8200 -5.82 5.82
5 20 14.0740 5.93 5.93
6 22 15.8518 6.15 6.15
7 21 17.6963 3.30 3.30
Month (x) Ft /e/
1 64.15 1.45
2 64.75 0.85
3 65.36 2.64
4 65.97 0.43
5 66.58 0.62
6 67.18 1.38
7 67.79 0.41
8 68.4 0.9
9 69.01 1.81
10 69.61 0.49
11 70.22
12 70.83

Quarter
2 3 4
0.7646 0.9416
1.2352 0.7368 1.0435
1.1930 Total
1.2141 0.7507 0.9926 4.0052
1.2125 0.7498 0.9913 4.0000

Year Ft
1 971.67
2 1062.67
3 1153.67
4 1244.67
Quarter
2 3 4
0.7646 0.9416
1.2352 0.7368 1.0435
1.1930 Total
1.2141 0.7507 0.9926 4.0052
1.2125 0.7498 0.9913 4.0000

Year Ft
1 485.83
2 531.33
3 576.83
4 622.33

Quarter (x) Des. Ft (y) Ft


1 117.35 122.79
2 120.21 145.75
3 123.07 92.28
4 125.93 124.83
5 128.79 134.76
6 131.65 159.62
7 134.5 100.85
8 137.36 136.17
9 140.22 146.73
10 143.08 173.49
11 145.94 109.43
12 148.8 147.51
13 151.66 158.7
14 154.52 187.36
15 157.38 118
16 160.24 158.84

MADb= 6.80

MSEb= 95.10
MADc= 7.09

MSEc= 85.27
8.6 Observation # # of Defects LCL UCL CL
1 9 0 8 4 c-chart
2 4 0 8 4 9
3 3 0 8 4
4 5 0 8 4 8
5 6 0 8 4 7
6 3 0 8 4
7 4 0 8 4 6

# of Defects
8 2 0 8 4
5
9 3 0 8 4
10 2 0 8 4 4
11 3 0 8 4
3
2
1
0
Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Observation #
c-chart

# of Defects
LCL
UCL
CL

Row Row Row Row Row


8 9 10 11 12
ion #
8.7 Observation # P(Defects) LCL UCL CL
1 0.1733 0.0335 0.1869 0.1102 p-chart
2 0.1533 0.0335 0.1869 0.1102
0.2500
3 0.2133 0.0335 0.1869 0.1102
4 0.2333 0.0335 0.1869 0.1102 0.2250
5 0.1667 0.0335 0.1869 0.1102
6 0.2133 0.0335 0.1869 0.1102 0.2000
7 0.1333 0.0335 0.1869 0.1102 0.1750
8 0.0000 0.0335 0.1869 0.1102

P(Defects)
9 0.0400 0.0335 0.1869 0.1102 0.1500
10 0.0133 0.0335 0.1869 0.1102
0.1250
11 0.0333 0.0335 0.1869 0.1102
12 0.1067 0.0335 0.1869 0.1102 0.1000
13 0.0333 0.0335 0.1869 0.1102
14 0.0600 0.0335 0.1869 0.1102 0.0750
15 0.0800 0.0335 0.1869 0.1102 0.0500
Observation # # of Defects 0.0250
1 26
0.0000
2 23
3 32
Ro Ro Ro Ro Ro Ro Ro Ro Ro Ro R
4 35 w w w w w w w w w w w
5 25 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1
6 32 Observation #
7 20
8 0
9 6
10 2
11 5
12 16
13 5
14 9
15 12
p-chart

P(Defects)
LCL
UCL
CL

Ro Ro Ro Ro Ro Ro Ro Ro Ro Ro Ro Ro
w w w w w w w w w w w w
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Observation #
8.8 Observation # Mean LCL UCL CL
1 10.47 7.3374 12.9086 10.1230 x-chart
2 10.74 7.3374 12.9086 10.1230 13
3 11.24 7.3374 12.9086 10.1230
4 9.14 7.3374 12.9086 10.1230 12
5 9.37 7.3374 12.9086 10.1230 11
6 8.59 7.3374 12.9086 10.1230
10
7 10.27 7.3374 12.9086 10.1230
8 8.92 7.3374 12.9086 10.1230 9
9 11.34 7.3374 12.9086 10.1230 8
10 11.15 7.3374 12.9086 10.1230
7

Mean
11 10.56 7.3374 12.9086 10.1230
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Observation #
x-chart

Mean
LCL
UCL
CL

ow Row Row Row Row Row Row Row


6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Observation #
8.8 Observation # Range LCL UCL CL
1 3.26 0.0000 7.0187 2.7310 R-chart
2 6.09 0.0000 7.0187 2.7310 8
3 2.39 0.0000 7.0187 2.7310
4 2.84 0.0000 7.0187 2.7310 7
5 3.74 0.0000 7.0187 2.7310
6 2.22 0.0000 7.0187 2.7310 6
7 2.03 0.0000 7.0187 2.7310
5
8 3.35 0.0000 7.0187 2.7310

Range
9 0.18 0.0000 7.0187 2.7310 4
10 1.21 0.0000 7.0187 2.7310
11 1.32 0.0000 7.0187 2.7310 3

0
Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row R
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1
Observation #
R-chart

Range
LCL
UCL
CL

w Row Row Row Row Row Row Row


6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Observation #