Coal-fired electricity generation

1. Accounts for 39% of world electricity production the most important source of electricity in OECD and non-OECD. 2. Accounts for more than 50% of electricity generation in Australia, China, India, Australia, Eastern Europe and the USA. 3. Coal expected to remain the most important source of electricity through to 2030. Capacity will grow by 120% (twothirds of this in developing countries) $1.3 trillion of investment.

4. Predominantly domestic good: 3% traded.

Projected world electricity production to 2030, by fuel source

TWh

Solar/Wind Combustible Renewables & Waste Geothermal

30 000

25 000

20 000

Hydro
15 000

Nuclear
10 000

Gas
5 000

Liquid Fuels
0

2002

2010

2020

2030

Source: World Energy Outlook 2004, IEA

Coal

Coal-fired electricity emissions

1. 70% of all power sector electricity and heat emissions. 2. 15.8% of global anthropogenic GHG emissions (22% for electricity and heat).

3. Projected to rise 60% by 2030 with developing countries accounting for 90% of this growth.
4. Higher plant thermal efficiencies are the key to achieving lower emissions intensities. 5. CO2 emissions intensities vary significantly: Japans is 35% lower than Indias.

Coal-fired electricity generation CO2 emissions intensities by region, 2002

kg CO2/ MWh 1 200

1 100

1 000

900

800

700
Aus/NZ USA S&E Asia FSU Japan Latin America Africa Middle East Canada Korea West Europe China East Europe India

Scope for progress

1. In 2002, average thermal efficiency in the OECD was 36%, in developing countries it was 30%. In 2030, expected to rise to 40% and 36% respectively. 2. State-of-the-art pulverised plants have efficiencies as high as 47%. IGCC (gasification) plants 50%. Thermal efficiencies of up to 56% is believed to be possible. 3. If all regions were to achieve the same efficiency level of Japan emissions could be reduced by 17% in 2020. 4. Major barrier to reducing emissions: capital costs. 5. Capture and storage technologies is probably 10 years off. Major technical and cost challenges.