The Impact of Different Mathematical Models on the Predicted Physical and Economic Consequences of Global Climate Change.

Jason Batts, Stephen Paskvich Team Mathenomics Dept of Geosciences, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061 INTRODUCTION
Mathematics and Economics are intrinsically linked within the discussion of the effects of climate change. Mathematical models present important information about factors of global climate such as the magnitude of temperature increase and sea level rise. This information can then be used in economic models to anticipate the costs of some aspects of global climate change, such as rising sea level. Differing models can lead to dissimlar predictions about the consequences of climate change and can therefore lead to vastly different economic predictions as well.

Sea Level Rise

Various attempts to model the future sea level rise have shown a range of values for the global rise over the next century. IPCC values presented in the 4th Assessment Report predict a range of between 0.18 and 0.59 meters. Meanwhile, other models which use the same temperature data show global sea level rise of between 0.81 and 1.79 meters over the same time period. Small Differences may seem negligible when viewed locally, however These values do not take into Account the overall uplift or subsidence of a region, as well as other causes of small-scale sea level rise. Further, small variances in sea level rise have tremendous consequences.
1

The Cost of Sea Level Rise

Sea level rise has been predicted increase at varying rates across numerous studies. The greater the predicted sea level rise, the greater the damage and cost. With sea level rise of one meter, the estimated cost in the United States is predicted to be nearly $320 billion. Some other studies estimate different changes in sea level as well as alternate predictions of cost. Table 1 shows some of the various estimates for costs associated with different magnitudes of sea level rise. This illustrates that similar data can be interpreted differently and lead to very distinct and even dissimilar results. This presents the challenge of determining which results are the most accurate and pertinent.

Temperature Rise
Temperature rise is shown to be more similar amongst models. The IPCC 4th Assessment Figure 1: Representative flood maps for Virginia Coastline Report shows a range of values assuming 1 meter (top) and 2 meter (bottom) sea level rise. for the temperature rise from 0.3 to 6.4 degree Celsius. Best estimate values exist between a 0.6 and 4.0 degree Celsius rise and are dependent upon model choice and initial values.

Table 1: Cost estimations based upon various sea level rise models in relation to wetland area destruction.

Beyond purely monetary costs, there are also a diversity of land area costs based on different predictions of sea level rise. Particularly prone to rising sea levels is the eastern seaboard of the United States. With a 1 meter sea level rise, nearly 64000 km2 of wetlands, which are an invaluable natural filtration system, will be lost along with other low lying coastal lands. Sea level rise also endangers major cities such as New Orleans, Miami, Savannah, and even New York City, as storm surge could be more likely to flood large parts of these cities.

Figure 2: Modeled temperature variances presented in IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.

Figure 3: Southeast United States, Mexico, and Caribbean Sea height levels in relation to flooding risk.

CONCLUSION
There are a multitude of predictions regarding the consequences of global climate change, and that is a result of unique data, analysis, and modeling. Every prediction of sea level rise or temperature change comes from some sort of model, and based on that model, equivalent data may present multiple distinct results. In the case of sea level rise some models estimate a rise of 0.18 meters while others a rise of 1.79 meters. In the same way economic models attempt to predict what these global changes will cost, and they are prone to the same variability. Some models anticipate sea level rise costing nearly $320 billion whereas others only $55 billion. Despite the conflict of some models, others agree well, as in the case of computing future global temperature change. Finally, mathematical models provide the best tool for predicting global climate change and its costs, and they should be used to make informed policy decisions. However, their limitations and variability must be noted.