1.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. WHILE THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT IMPROVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL CUBA. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

Steering Currents

Sea Surface Temperatures Around 94L

82F
81F 79F

Current Wind Shear

36 Hour Forecast Wind Shear

60 Hour Forecast Wind Shear

Rain Chances (%) Friday Saturday

20-40%

20-30%

Rain Chances (%) Sunday Monday

20-40%

30-40%

Rain Chances (%) Tuesday Wednesday

20-30% 40% 30%
30-40%

40-50% 30%

Forecast Total Rainfall Accumulations (Through Tuesday Night)