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Advanced Contemporary Affairs

(Book 78) ISBN 978-969-588-085-2 Price Rs. 450/Annual Subscription Rs. 2000/2nd Issue, 2012 The book series is backed and supported by the prestigious think tank, Council on Contemporary Affairs Pakistan _______________ Articles and Essays included in the Advanced Contemporary Affairs are being taken from national and international newspapers and journals of repute. The book series is designed to offer the readers a conglomerate of enlightened, research oriented, and thought provoking articles on current affairs at minimum possible cost. _______________ All correspondence and suggestions related to the Advanced Contemporary Affairs must be addressed to the Editors office: M. Imtiaz Shahid 133, K3, Bolan Avenue. Wapda Town, Lahore Pakistan. (Tel: 03222700004) E-mail: advancedcontemporaryaffairs@gmail.com mimtiazshahid@gmail.com _______________ We welcome any article on current affairs for publication. These articles may be sent to the Editors office. _______________ Opinions expressed in articles and reviews published in the Advanced Contemporary Affairs are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the editor or the publishers. _______________ Grateful acknowledgements are due to all those Authors, Newspapers, Journals & Publishers, whose articles and research works are included in this book series. _______________ Published by Advanced Publishers 172nd Floor, Muslim Centre. Chatter Jee Road. Urdu Bazaar. Lahore. Pakistan. Ph. 042 37360555, 35056955 email: advancedpublisherspk@gmail.com)

Advisory Board
Dr Hasan-Askari Rizvi Political and Defence Analyst Dr Farooq Hasnat Middle East specialist Middle East Centre Washington DC Dr Nilofer Mehdi Analyst Pakistan Foreign Policy Dr Maqsud al Hasan Nuri Analyst Central Asia, Afghanistan and the Gulf Acting President & Senior Research Fellow, Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) Dr A Z Hilali Analyst South Asian Security Dean of Contemporary Studies National Defence University, Islamabad Dr Mansoor Akbar Kundi Vice Chancellor, Gomal University, D I Khan Dr Muhammad Ahsan Analyst Muslim World & International Political Economy Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal Analyst Nuclearization Dr Nauman Zafar University of Indiana, USA Analyst Pakistan US Relations Dr Zahid Anwer Analyst Russia & Central Asia Guo Xiaobing Fellow, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, Beijing Faiza Mir
Analyst Balochistan & Tribal Areas

CONTENTS
S.#. Description Page

PART ONE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS


1. A Real-Time Look at the Seeds of Turmoil in Bahrain and Syria Tooba Khurshid Syria Bleeds But Assad Still Leads Arshad M. Abbasi Turmoil in Syria, A Possible Way Out Masood Ur Rehman Khattak Turkey and the Arab Spring Sarah Akram Egypt Under Islamists? Arshad M. Abbasi The Palestine Question, and the Arab Answer Hazem Saghieh Moving Towards New Confrontations Summar Rao Challenges & Countermeasures Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal Iran Face to Face with the West, US Imran Ali Sandano Iran-US Stand-off: Time to Play Cards Well, Watch Interest Masood Ur Rehman Khattak Trilateral Moot: Rhetoric and Substance Arshad M. Abbasi Pakistan in the US-Iran Equation Arshad M. Abbasi Prospects of a Nuclear Armed Iran and Policy Options for Pakistan Shams uz Zaman Shifting Geopolitical Sands and Pakistans Foreign Policy Options Abdul Basit 1

2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.

12 14 17 24 26 29 31 34 37

11. 12. 13.

39 42 44

14.

59

15. 16. 17.

Time to Adopt Pragmatic Foreign Policy Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal Destabilizing Global Agenda Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal A Pakistani Perspective on WMD Terrorism: Is it Really a Threat? Muhammad Khurshid Khan 2012 Seoul Nuclear Security Summit Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal An Estranged Client and an Annoyed Patron: Shift in the Pakistan-US Relations During the War on Terror Syed Hussain Shaheed Soherwordi Relations with America: New Terms of Engagement Dr Ishtiaq Ahmad Rethinking the Pakistan Plan Amitai Etzioni Another Round of Confrontation? Arshad M. Abbasi Reordering Economic Relations With the U.S. Dr. Ishrat Husain Americas Pacific Century! General (R) Mirza Aslam Beg Pakistan, the United States, and the War in Afghanistan Mohammad Waqas Sajjad Americas Future Course in Afghanistan Masood Ur Rehman Khattak American Nightmare in Afghanistan Sarvat N. Hanif Last Days of US in Afghanistan Afshain Afzal The Afghan Endgame: Lessons for U.S. Strategy Syed Muhammad Ali Drone War Against Pakistan: An Analytical Study Muhammad Saleem Mazhar& Naheed S. Goraya

61 63 65

18. 19.

81 83

20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25.

98 101 113 115 117 120

26. 27. 28. 29. 30.

128 130 132 135 143

31. 32. 33. 34.

Drone Attacks Part of US Diplomacy Riaz Missen Al-Qaeda in Deep Quagmire Sajjad Warraich Who are Extremists? Afshain Afzal Chinas Quest for Energy and Diplomacy Anjum Saeed Emerging New Threats in International System: Limitations on States Capacity Muhammad Ijaz Latif & Rehman Afzal Khan

155 156 158 161

35.

174

36.

States Rather Than Criminals Pose a Greater Threat to Global Cyber Security: A Critical Analysis Fahad Ullah Khan Expansion of the United Nations Security Council Nadia Sarwar

186

37.

196

38.

The Security Dilemma of Third World Countries Imran Ali Sandanok

214

PART TWO ASIAN AFFAIRS


39. Cold Start in Strategic Calculus Sannia Abdullah 40. India-Pakistan Relations The Peace Process Mahwish Hafeez 41. Pakistans Kashmir Environment Policy in New Strategic 245 238 219

Sohaib Khaliq 42. Indus Waters Across 50 Years: A Comparative Study of the Management Methodologies of India and Pakistan Asma Yaqoob 43. Arms Race between China and India, Impact on Pakistan Masood Ur Rehman Khattak 282 261

44.

The Rise of India: The Shifting Geopolitics of Asia in the Twenty-first Century Arshad M. Abbasi

284

45.

India versus China: A Review of the Aksai Chin Border Dispute Nadeem Shafiq

286

46.

Economic Integration in South Asia Dr Ishrat Husain

296

47.

Emerging Regional Equations in South Asia and Eurasia Dr. Aman Memon

301

48.

Political Legacy of the Muslims In India: An Overview Tariq Hameed Bhatti

314

49.

Afghanistan: Quest for Peace and Stability (Historical Context) Iram Khalid

326

50.

Reconciling the Afghan Insurgents Muhammad Nawaz Khan and Aftab Hussain

339

51.

Pakistan-Iran Relations: Back on Track? Ghani Jafar

346

52.

Strategic Dynamics of Kazakhstan Summar Rao

354

53.

Sino-Pakistan Strategic Entente: Implications for Regional Security Rajshree Jetly

357

PART THREE PAKISTAN AFFAIRS


54. Hybrid Regime of Pakistan: The Changing SocioEconomic-Political Contours of Ideologically-Adrift Society Amna Yousaf Khokhar 375

55.

Reversing Pakistans Middle Class

Descent:

Empowering

Its

378

Xenia Dormandy 56. Reflection of Poor Governance Sarvat N. Hanif 57. Pakistans Governance Deficit Dr Ishrat Husain 58. Good Governance and Police Administration in Pakistan Kaleem Imam 59. Corruption: Causes and Cure Dr Noor ul Haq 60. Redefining Governance Dr Ishrat Husain 61. Paradigm Shift in Foreign Policy? Dr Ishtiaq Ahmad 62. National Interest Imperative Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal 63. Water Security: Pakistan and Regional Perspective Khalid Chandio 64. Stuck Between Droughts and Floods Riaz Missen 65. Future of Pakistans Energy Security: An Alternate Approach Muhammad Mustansar Billah Hussain 66. Thar Coal Project Still on Back Burner Khurshid Ahmad 67. The Role of Light Weapons in Creating Internal Instability: Case Study of Pakistan Muhammad Munir 441 439 430 428 423 420 417 414 409 396 394 391

68.

The Role of Media in Creating Values of Nationalism in Pakistan Munawar Sabir

452

69.

Balochistan Conflict Abdul Basit

466

70.

Balochistan Turmoil Alauddin Masood

469

71.

Global Conspiracy against Balochistan Alauddin Masood

471

72.

Hands behind Exposed

Balochistan

Conspiracy

Finally

475

Afshain Afzal 73. US Congress Zeroes in on Flashpoint Balochistan Dr Haroon Iqbal 74. How To Counter Us Interference In Balochistan? Masood Ur Rehman Khattak 75. Confrontation Taking its Own Path Arshad M. Abbasi 76. Has Life Lost Value in Karachi? Sarvat N. Hanif 77. Karachi: PPPS Achilles Heel Abdul Basit 78. Learning From Turkey? Imtiaz Gul 79. Its Alliance of the Powerful Against the Poor Riaz Missen 80. Inflation Spiral Weighs Down on Common Man Zia Qureshi 81. Agriculture Sector: Issues and Prospects Dr Ishrat Husain 497 495 493 490 488 485 483 480 477

82.

Deteriorating Balance Threatens to Economy

of

Payment

Situation

503

83.

Yasir Ameen The State of Pakistans Economy State Bank of Pakistan

505

84.

Risks to Macro-Economic Stability Increase Zia Qureshi

510

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(iii)

(iv)

(v)

(vi)

(vii)

(viii)

(ix)

(x)

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(xi)

(xii)

Editor in Chief

M Imtiaz Shahid

Backed by: Council on Contemporary Affairs, Pakistan (Lahore, London, Washington D.C.)

17-2nd Floor, Muslim Centre, Chatter Jee Road, Urdu Bazaar, Lahore. Ph. 042 37360555, 35056955 email: advancedpublisherspk@gmail.com