Thayer Consultancy

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Background Briefing: South China Sea: Chinas Tactics of Intimidation Carlyle A. Thayer July 23, 2012

[client name deleted] 1. China recently conducted several military deployments to the South China Sea, it established a military garrison on Woody Island and sent 30 fishing trawlers to the Spratly Islands under escort. What is your assessment of these developments? ANSWER: Tensions in the South China Sea are on the rise after nearly a year of relative peace. China is responding to resistance to its assertiveness by the Philippines and Vietnam by carefully calibrated actions. China is using the tactics of intimidation to divide ASEAN and to get the Philippines and Vietnam to retreat from the defence of their national sovereignty. Chinas dispatch of thirty fishing trawlers and an escort ship to Johnson South Reef was a calculated act. This was the area that China and Vietnam fought a naval engagement in March 1988. China is demonstrating that it can send numbers of ships that will overwhelm the ability of Vietnam to defend its sovereignty. The decision by Chinas Central Military Commision [; Zhngyng Jnsh Wiyunhu] is the most serious development because this body represents the highest leadership level in China. And it also reflects the views of the Peoples Liberation Army. The decision to create a garrison in the Paracel Islands is more symbolic than a military threat. Woody Island already serves as a key electronic and signals listening post for China directed at Vietnam. It would be a mistake to view the creation of the military garrison as little more than a name change, however. This increases the power of the PLA over civilian agencies to defend Chinas sovereignty in the South China Sea. Both incidents represent a deliberate step up in pressure on Vietnam. But they were carefully calculated tactical decisions. China is not preparing to use armed force against Vietnam at the moment. 2. A high ranking Chinese fishery official recently proposed arming their fishermen when they go to South China Sea. Do you think the Chinese government will accept this advice? And why or why not? ANSWER: I do not think that the Chinese government will approve arming Chinese fishermen. First, the central government would not be able to control them and the tail would wag the dog. In other words, the fishermen could force the central government to take actions that it does not see as being in Chinas interest. The

2 proposal is a stupid one. Armed Chinese fishermen might take to piracy, they might easily fall out among themselves, and who knows where arms might go? 3. If the Chinese government decides to make the proposal to arm its fishermen, what should Vietnam and the Philippines do? ANSWER: Both Vietnam and the Philippines should reiterate their national laws about how foreign armed fishermen will be treated if apprehended in their Exclusive Economic Zones. Both Vietnam and the Philippines need to step up maritime surveillance by plane and boats. Both countries should closely coordinate the exchange of information. Both countries should make sure their Marine Police and Coast Guard are properly protected and given clear rules of engagement. These rules should spell out the circumstances in which deadly force is authorized. Finally, government authorities in both countries will need to educate their fishermen about how to respond if they encounter armed Chinese fishermen. All fishing craft should be equipped with appropriate radio, GPS and emergency systems. 4. Do you think the recent developments from China suggests a change in the policy of Beijing in asserting the sovereignty claims on the South China Sea, from using civilian to military forces? ANSWER: Except for the garrison on Woody Island, the PLA Navy has remained behind the scenes and has so far not been involved in any of the major incidents over the past three years. The main Chinese ships in the South China Sea belong to the China Maritime Surveillance and the Fishery Law Enforcement Command. China is likely to refrain from using PLAN ships because this would mark a major escalation, possibly undermine the diplomatic process of negotiating a Code of Conduct, and attract the opposition of major external powers. 5. Chinas media has been intemperate in it reporting about deployments of Chinese navy ships and fishery vessels in South China Sea. Is this different from past reporting? And if it is, what is/are the reason(s) behind the change? ANSWER: China has always reported the operations of its civilian ships in the South China Sea as normal activities exercising sovereignty. What has changed? Chinas 9dash line is increasingly being challenged by Vietnam and the Philippines. Vietnam has issued its Maritime Law and the Philippines has rejected Chinese claims to Scarborough Shoal. China is internally divided about the meaning of this line. Chinese nationalist hot heads have preempted any internal debate by pushing for demonstrations of Chinese sovereignty. After the events during the first half of 2011, Chinese leaders appointed a Leading Small Group under State Councilor Dai Bingguo to assert control over the various ministries acting in the South China Sea. The Foreign Ministry was ordered to take the lead and coordinate Chinas response. Neither action has proven to be entirely effective. Until Chinas power shift is resolved those contending for power will raise territorial disputes in the South China Sea to gain domestic support. Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, South China Sea: Chinas Tactics of Intimidation, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, July 23, 2012.