TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

April 12, 2012

DAILY

Initial Signs of Jitters Setting In.

Open 13919
Syed Rehan Ali rehan@fs.com.pk +92 (213) 561 2290-94 Ext. 306

High 13973

Low 13777

Close 13816

Vol. (m) 511

RSI(14) 65.63

21ema 13566

55ema 13004

233ema 12082
4300 4200 4100 4000 3900 3800 3700 3600 3500 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 2900 2800 2700 2600 2500 2400 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 0900 0800 0700 0600

Stocks OGDC Pakistan Oil Fields Pakistan State Oil National Bank Nishat Mills Engro Chemicals Lucky Cement DG Khan Cement MCB Fauji Fertilizer Co.

Page 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6

00 550 500 450 400 50 00 50 00 50 00 x10 50

10 14 vember 21 28 7 12 December 19 26 2 9 2012 16 23 30 6 13 February 20 27 5 March 12 19 26 2 9 April 16 23

Yesterdays move proved the bonding of resistance getting harder around 14000 as levels gave way below 13820 and also closed below trend-line support around 13839, albeit marginal. What raises the level of caution is the participation level that touched the 500 million mark. Short-term retreat would face levels around 13554-13600 and test the 21-day average. We reiterate any immediate sign of continuing the trend would be on close above 13957.

Todays Strategy: Sell @13855-13890 targeting 13737, stop above 13957. SUP.1 13737 SUP.2 13620 SUP.3 13595 RES.1 13855 RES.2 13933 RES.3 14000

April 12, 2012

OGDC
Todays Strategy Sell Target: 163.50 162.00 Stop: 166.42.

Oil & Gas Dev. Co.

Taking immediate pressure the stock still holds its closing support around 163.50. Such a close would unfold corrections towards 157.50 161.00. Currently the range from 162.00-168.00 is still in play. SUP.1 163.50 SUP.2 162.00

Intra-day Levels
SUP.3 161.63 RES.1 165.21 RES.2 166.42 RES.3 167.50
175 170

165

160

155

150

145

140

135

130

21

28

7 12 December

19

26

2 2012

16

23

30

6 February

13

20

27

5 March

12

19

26

2 April

16

23

Open 167.00

High 167.00

Low 164.00

Close 164.63

Vol(m) 0.248

RSI(14) 48.69

21ema 165.73

55ema 162.15

233ema 152.06

POL
Todays Strategy Sell Target: 366.29 363.50 Stop: 371.00.

Pakistan Oil Fields

Thin conditions taking a retreat to retest levels around 368. Moving below 366 regains the previous consolidation from 355 368. SUP.1 366.29 SUP.2 363.50

Intra-day Levels
SUP.3 362.30 RES.1 368.64 RES.2 370.28 RES.3 372.63
400 395 390 385 380 375 370 365 360 355 350 345 340 335 330 325 320 315 310

ust

15 22 29 12 19 26 3 10 17 25 31 10 21 28 7 19 26 2 9 September October November December 2012

16 23 30 6 13 20 27 5 12 19 26 2 9 February March April

16 23

Open 370.99

High 370.99

Low 367.00

Close 367.93

Vol(m) 0.496

RSI(14) 48.50

21ema 368.90

55ema 367.64

233ema 351.55

April 12, 2012

PSO
Todays Strategy Sell Target: 244.25 242.00 Stop: 248.50.

Pakistan State Oil

Resistance regains firmly around 250. Moves are back in the recent range from 241.00 250.00. SUP.1 244.25 SUP.2 242.00

Intra-day Levels
SUP.3 241.00 RES.1 246.87 RES.2 248.44 RES.3 250.00
275

270

265

260

255

250

245

240

235

230

225

220

12 19 mber

26

3 10 October

17

25

31 10 14 November

21

28

7 12 December

19

26

2 9 2012

16

23

30

6 13 February

20

27

5 March

12

19

26

2 9 April

16

23

Open 248.50

High 249.49

Low 245.30

Close 245.82

Vol(m) 0.170

RSI(14) 40.73

21ema 249.86

55ema 251.13

233ema 253.97

NBP
Todays Strategy Sell Target: 47.40 47.00 Stop: 49.00.

National Bank
Taking a follow through over the preceding sessions gains, resistance around 48.70 remained in place. Closing above 48.70 would build on Tuesdays recovery. Moving below 46.20 would though signal further corrections towards 43. SUP.1 48.12 SUP.2 47.40

Intra-day Levels
SUP.3 46.67 RES.1 48.70 RES.2 49.05 RES.3 49.77
58.5 58.0 57.5 57.0 56.5 56.0 55.5 55.0 54.5 54.0 53.5 53.0 52.5 52.0 51.5 51.0 50.5 50.0 49.5 49.0 48.5 48.0 47.5 47.0 46.5 46.0 45.5 45.0 44.5 44.0 43.5 43.0 42.5 42.0 41.5 41.0 40.5 40.0 39.5 39.0 38.5 38.0 37.5

19

26

2 2012

16

23

30

6 February

13

20

27

5 March

12

19

26

2 April

16

23

Open 47.65

High 48.85

Low 47.20

Close 48.32

Vol(m) 12.90

RSI(14) 52.20

21ema 47.29

55ema 47.32

233ema 49.40

April 12, 2012

NML
Todays Strategy Buy Target: 59.49/73 Stop: 57.00.

Nishat Mills Ltd.

Overcoming its correction and sustaining above 54.85 the stock closed its highest for the current rise. This marks continuations towards 63. Place risk below 56. SUP.1 58.17 SUP.2 56.94

Intra-day Levels
SUP.3 56.00 RES.1 59.49 RES.2 59.73 RES.3 60.96
61 60 59 58 57 56 55 54 53 52 51 50 49 48 47 46 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 38 37

20 27 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 12 19 26 3 10 17 25 31 10 21 28 7 19 26 2 9 July August September October November December 2012

16 23 30 6 13 20 27 5 12 19 26 2 9 February March April

16 23

Open 56.93

High 59.39

Low 56.60

Close 58.51

Vol(m) 11.13

RSI(14) 74.57

21ema 53.92

55ema 50.73

233ema 49.47

ENGRO
Todays Strategy Sell Target: 97.90 95.80 Stop: 101.00.

Engro Chemicals
Its still a struggling test of supports that is currently around 99.50. Moving below 97.90 would build on the retreat towards 93. Resistance is currently around 102.25 103.00. SUP.1 97.90 SUP.2 95.66

Intra-day Levels
SUP.3 94.41 RES.1 99.50 RES.2 100.81 RES.3 102.25
170 165 160 155 150 145 140 135 130 125 120 115 110

105

100

95

90

25

31 10 14 November

21

28

7 12 December

19

26

2 9 2012

16

23

30

6 13 February

20

27

5 March

12

19

26

2 9 April

16

23

Open 101.10

High 101.50

Low 98.30

Close 98.86

Vol(m) 3.41

RSI(14) -

21ema 108.58

55ema 115.81

233ema 134.54

April 12, 2012

LUCK
Todays Strategy Sell Target: 121.60 121.00 Stop: 127.00.

Lucky Cement
Closings remain reactive despite intra-day gains approaching 128. We reiterate that close above 128 would continue the beak above the channel otherwise risk to correct is high and would face levels around 119.50 116.60. SUP.1 122.22 SUP.2 121.60

Intra-day Levels
SUP.3 119.50 RES.1 124.83 RES.2 126.94 RES.3 128.00
135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85

80

75

70 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100

x10000

25 31 10 21 November

28

7 12 19 December

26

2 9 2012

16

23

30 6 13 February

20

27

5 12 March

19 26

9 2 April

16

23

Open 124.80

High 127.43

Low 122.71

Close 124.34

Vol(m) 5.75

RSI(14) 76.15

21ema 113.00

55ema 102.22

233ema 85.04

DGKC
Todays Strategy Sell Target: 40.64 Stop: 42.60.

DG Khan Cement
Momentum continues to surge maintaining the increased level of risk this condition holds. The 2009 peak of 42.25 has been retested. We reiterate our caution and unless able to sustain above 42.25 broader developments may be hard to sustain over the short-term. Nearest supports are around 39 & 37. Shortterm positions should be realized. SUP.1 41.24 SUP.2 40.64

Intra-day Levels
SUP.3 39.91 RES.1 42.25 RES.2 42.57 RES.3 43.18
45 40

35

30

25

20

RSI

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20
16 23 30 6 13 20 27 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 12 19 26 3 10 17 25 31 10 21 28 7 19 26 2 9 June July August September October November December 2012 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 5 12 19 26 2 9 February March April 16 23

18 25 2 9 May

Open 42.00

High 42.45

Low 41.12

Close 41.97

Vol(m) 17.28

RSI(14) 89.31

21ema 35.90

55ema 30.83

233ema 25.26

April 12, 2012

MCB
Todays Strategy Buy Target: 174.37 Stop: 169.00.

MCB
Support would now look to hold around 169.00 172.50 and build up potential towards 185 190. SUP.1 170.42 SUP.2 169.00

Intra-day Levels
SUP.3 168.13 RES.1 172.71 RES.2 174.37 RES.3 176.66
215 210 205 200 195 190 185 180

175

170

165

160

155

150

145

140

135

130

27 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 12 19 26 3 10 17 25 31 10 21 28 7 19 26 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 5 12 19 26 2 9 16 23 August April July September October November December 2012 February March

Open 173.50

High 175.00

Low 171.05

Close 172.08

Vol(m) 0.686

RSI(14) 48.54

21ema 172.82

55ema 171.24

233ema 175.40

FFC
Todays Strategy Sell Target: 117.25/48 Stop: 121.00.

Fauji Fertilizer Co.

Falling below 120 signals a retest of lows around 116.25 117.00. This brings into play a range from 116.25 122.25. SUP.1 118.00 SUP.2 117.25

Intra-day Levels
SUP.3 116.25 RES.1 119.91 RES.2 121.00 RES.3 121.77
195 190 185 180 175 170 165 160 155 150 145 140 135 130 125

120

115

9 2

16

23

30

6 February

13

20

27

5 March

12

19

26

2 April

16

23

Open 122.05

High 122.34

Low 118.05

Close 119.34

Vol(m) 3.89

RSI(14) -

21ema 125.09

55ema 139.79

233ema 151.05

April 12, 2012

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