Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 3

Morning Report

26.07.2012

GDP-drop weakened the pound


NOK & 3m NIBOR 7.60 7.50 7.40 7.30 15-Jun 5-Jul 2.40 2.30 2.20 2.10 25-Jul
EURNOK

The decline in UK GDP was much higher than expected in the second quarter. This led to a marked weakening of the pound. In Germany, the IFO-index for July disappointed. The stock markets rose a bit yesterday. In Europe the Eurostoxx50 rose by 0.4%, while the Oslo Stock Exchange was up 0.3%. The main US indices were stable yesterday, while the Asian equity markets rose moderately. Spanish interest rates fell slightly yesterday, but remains at a level that is unsustainable over time. So far there are no signals of new measures that can get interest rates down again quickly. ECB's Nowotny (The Austrian Central Bank Governor) argued yesterday that the permanent rescue fund (ESM) should be given a banking license, allowing for access to funding from the ECB. Today the ECB chief Mr. Draghi will take part in a global investment conference, where he may will comment on the recent developments. US ten-year government bond yields rose slightly yesterday, from the record low level (1.38%) reached on Tuesday. Norwegian long government bond yields rose by around 10 basis points yesterday, after a similar increase the previous day. In the foreign exchange market the pound weakened markedly yesterday after the disappointing GDP-data for the second quarter. The GBP is 0.7% weaker both vs the euro and the NOK compared to the level from yesterday morning. British GDP fell for the third consecutive quarter, but the decline was far larger than expected in the second quarter. The decline was 0.7%, while a drop of 0.2% was expected. In particular, the construction sector (-5.2%) and partly manufacturing contributed to the drop. Part of the reason for the large decline is the extra day off due to the Queen's Diamond Jubilee. In addition, there has been much rain in the second quarter, which may also have contributed to lower production. Anyhow, it is not encouraging that GDP has fallen for three consecutive quarters and that GDP is 4.5% below the level from the first quarter of 2008. Bank of England seems to consider lowering the key interest rate from the current level of 0.5% down towards zero to provide additional stimulus to the economy. The CBI survey for manufacturing showed on the other hand, surprisingly enough, a slight improvement in July. It was the expected production volume that rose, while export orders fell. There is also some consolation that the Olympic Games in London will probably contribute to a positive (albeit temporary) effect on GDP in the third quarter. The German IFO index fell more than expected in July. The decrease of nearly 2 points brought the index to its lowest level since March 2010. The assessment of the current situation fell most, while the outlook worsened more moderately. The index is now consistent with a new downturn for the German economy. The manufacturing sector showed the largest decline, but the construction sector also weakened. For retailers, there was an improvement from June to July. The Ifo-index confirms the impression from the PMI index released on Tuesday, where industrial activity was on the fast track downwards. This morning the German consumer confidence improved a bit, despite the weaker outlook for the manufacturing sector and the acceleration of the Spanish crisis. ECBs lending survey for Q2 showed that fewer banks are tightening their lending conditions to households. There was a decrease from 17% in the first quarter to 13% in the second. However, the tightening continues, both for household and for companies. An even worse outcome was probably prevented by the LTRO-operations undertaken by the ECB around the turn of the year. On the other hand, the study shows that the demand for loans continues to decline, albeit at a lesser pace than in the first quarter. Today, money supply growth (M3) for the euro zone will be released. It is expected that the growth rate will slow from 2.9% in May to 2.8% in June. In the US, new home sales disappointed in June. While house prices seem to pick up markedly, a much slower improvement applies for the sales of new units. The large drop in June (8.4%) more than reversed the increase in May. The number of unsold homes rose as well and is back at the April level (equivalent to almost 5 months of sales). The figures show that the improvement of the housing market is still slow. Today, the orders for durable goods (waited up), initial unemployment claims (estimated unchanged) and pending home sales from the US (expected to be up slightly) are due. knut.magnussen@dnb.no

3m ra.

SEK & 3m STIBOR 9.0 8.6 8.2 15-Jun 2.20 2.10 2.00 25-Jul
EURSEK

5-Jul

3m ra.

Headquarters 0021 Oslo Stranden 21

+47 03000

Offices Abroad New York London Shanghai Singapore Stockholm

+1 212 681 3800 +44 207 6211111 +86 21 6132 2888 +65 6220 6144 +46 8 4734850

Sales Oslo (+47) Equity Fixed Income

22 94 89 40 22 01 78 20

Regional sales (+47) Bergen Bod Fredrikstad Hamar Haugesund Lillehammer Kristiansand Oslo Stavanger Troms Trondheim Tnsberg lesund

56 13 27 20 75 52 9910 69 39 41 50 62 54 14 82 52 72 09 06 61 24 79 56 38 07 28 62 22 01 76 50 51 84 04 30 77 62 96 80 73 58 74 89 33 01 73 80 70 11 69 85

Research Regional Sales (+47) Eirik Larsen 22 01 76 55

Research FX/IR (+47) ystein Drum Kjersti Haugland Ole Andr Kjennerud Knut A. Magnussen Camilla Viland Magne stnor Kyrre Aamdal

22 01 76 56 22 01 78 03 22 01 78 24 22 01 76 63 22 01 77 41 22 01 76 57 22 01 76 67

Credit Research (+47) Ole Einar Stokstad Mikael L. Gjerding Rolv Kristian Heitmann Thomas Larsen Knut Olav Rnningen

22 01 78 37 22 01 77 62 22 01 76 77 22 01 77 36 22 01 78 15

Yesterday's key economic events (GMT) 08:00 Germany Ifo 08:30 UK GDP Todays key economic events (GMT) 12:30 USA Durable goods 14:00 USA Pending home sales

As of July Q2 As of June June

Unit Index q/q, % Unit m/m, % m/m, %

Prior 105.3 -0.3 Prior 1.3 5.9

Poll 104.8 -0.2 Poll 0.5 0.2

Actual 103.3 -0.7 DNB

Morning Report
26.07.2012

SPOT RATES AND FORECASTS


Oil spot & NOK TWI 115 105 95 85 15-Jun 5-Jul 96 94 92 90 25-Jul
$/b

NOK TWI r a.

EUR vs GBP & CHF 0.82 1.20 1.20 0.80 1.20 0.78 1.20 0.76 1.20 15-Jun 5-Jul 25-Jul
GBP r.a CHF

FX USDJPY EURUSD EURGBP EURCHF EURNOK EURSEK EURDKK USDNOK JPYNOK SEKNOK GBPNOK USDSEK JPYSEK NOKSEK GBPSEK

Prior 78.20 1.216 0.785 1.201 7.389 8.473 7.438 6.075 7.780 0.873 9.424 6.970 8.929 1.148 10.807

Last 78.20 1.214 0.784 1.201 7.383 8.465 7.439 6.079 7.776 0.872 9.413 6.971 8.921 1.148 10.800

% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% 0.0% 0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0% -0.1%

In 1 m ...3 m 80 84 1.23 1.30 0.79 0.83 1.20 1.20 7.60 7.50 8.80 9.00 7.45 7.45 6.18 5.77 7.72 6.87 0.86 0.83 9.6 9.0 7.15 6.92 5.72 5.82 1.16 1.20 11.14 10.84

...6 m ...12 m 85 85 1.35 1.40 0.85 0.87 1.20 1.30 7.50 7.60 9.00 9.00 7.45 7.45 5.56 5.43 6.54 6.39 0.83 0.84 8.8 8.7 6.67 6.43 5.67 5.46 1.20 1.18 10.59 10.34

FX AUD CAD CHF CZK DKK GBP HKD ISK KWD LTL LVL NZD PLN SGD RUB

USD 1.0333 1.0151 0.9892 21.04 6.1278 1.5488 7.7577 124.59 0.2823 2.8432 0.5738 0.7929 3.4456 1.2552 32.6430

% 0.16% -0.06% 0.12% 0.28% 0.16% -0.08% -0.01% 0.07% -0.03% 0.01% 0.12% 0.43% 0.17% -0.06% -0.06%

EURSEK & OMXS 8.9 8.7 8.5 8.3 15-Jun 5-Jul 550 500 450 400 350 25-Jul

OMXS ra. EURSEK

1m 3m 6m 12m 3y 5y 7y 10y

NIBOR Prior 1.92 2.23 2.47 2.60 2.38 2.64 2.89 3.14

SWAP AND MONEYMARKET RATES STIBOR EURIBOR Last Prior Last Prior 1.91 1.87 1.86 0.11 2.21 2.08 2.07 0.31 2.46 2.33 2.32 0.62 2.57 2.43 2.42 0.80 2.38 1.66 1.65 0.76 2.63 1.79 1.79 1.08 2.87 1.96 1.97 1.42 3.13 2.14 2.14 1.77

Last 0.11 0.30 0.61 0.79 0.76 1.08 1.42 1.79

USD LIBOR Prior Last 0.24 0.24 0.45 0.45 0.73 0.73 0.90 0.90 0.49 0.50 0.79 0.79 1.13 1.15 1.55 1.55

Gov. Bonds, 10y 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 15-Jun 5-Jul 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 25-Jul
SEK

NORWAY Prior Last /A No Data 101.70 10y 10y yield 1.80 1.83 vs bund 0.53 0.57

GOVERNMENT BONDS SWEDEN GERMANY US Prior Last Prior Last Prior 120.48 120.63 104.53 104.56 103.21875 1.27 1.26 1.27 1.26 1.40 0.00 0.00 0.13

Last 103.08 1.42 0.16

NOK, ra.

13.0 12.5

JPY and DowJones

81 79

In 3m 6m 12m

INTEREST RATE FORECASTS NORWAY SWEDEN GERMANY 3m nibor 10y swap 3m stibor 10y swap 3m euribor 10y swap 2.40 3.50 2.10 2.50 0.50 2.25 2.75 0.50 2.75 2.50 3.75 2.05 2.85 4.25 2.20 3.00 0.50 3.25

US 3m libor 10y swap 0.50 2.25 0.50 2.50 0.50 3.00

12.0 15-Jun

5-Jul

77 75 25-Jul

USDJPY ra. DowJones, 1000

USD and gold 1670 1620 1570 1520 15-Jun 5-Jul


EURUSD ra.

1.28 1.26 1.24 1.22 1.20 25-Jul


Gold

MISCELLANEOUS FRA NOK 3m Prior chg TWI Today SEP 2.10 2. 10 0.00 NOK 92.29 DEC 1.93 1. 92 0.01 SEK 112.92 MAR 1.91 1. 91 0.00 EUR 96.90 JUN 1.92 1. 93 -0.01 USD 83.63 FRA SEK 3m Prior chg GBP 84.10 SEP 1.89 1. 89 0.00 Comm. Today DEC 1.63 1. 63 0.00 Brent spot 103.1 MAR 1.51 1. 51 0.00 Brent 1m 103.9 JUN 1.49 1. 49 0.00 Spot gold 0.0 Sources to all tables and graphics: Reuters and DNB Markets

% - 0.06 0.04 - 0.05 0.06 - 0.0 Last 103.1 104.4 1601.0

Stock ex. Today Dow Jones 12,676.1 Nasdaq 2,854.2 FTSE100 5,498.3 Eurostoxx50 2,159.1 Dax 6,406.5 Nikkei225 8,436.3 Oslo 412.86 Stockholm 484.53 Copenhagen 608.21

% 0.5% -0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4%

IMPORTANT/DISCLAIMER This note (the Note) must be seen as marketing material and not as an investment recommendation within the meaning of the Norwegian Securities Trading Act of 2007 paragraph 3-10 and the Norwegian Securities Trading Regulation 2007/06/29 no. 876. The Note has been prepared by DNB Markets, a division of DNB Bank ASA, a Norwegian bank organized under the laws of the Kingdom of Norway (the Bank), for information purposes only. The Note shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. The Bank, its affiliates, and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (individually, each a DNB Party; collectively, DNB Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Note. DNB Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause, nor for the results obtained from the use of the Note, nor for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Note is provided on an as is basis. DNB PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE NOTES FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE NOTE WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall DNB Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the Note, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Any opinions expressed herein reflect the Banks judgment at the time the Note was prepared and DNB Parties assume no obligation to update the Note in any form or format. The Note should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. No DNB Party is acting as fiduciary or investment advisor in connection with the dissemination of the Note. While the Note is based on information obtained from public sources that the Bank believes to be reliable, no DNB Party has performed an audit of, nor accepts any duty of due diligence or independent verification of, any information it receives. Confidentiality rules and internal rules restrict the exchange of information between different parts of the Bank and this may prevent employees of DNB Markets who are preparing the Note from utilizing or being aware of information available in DNB Markets/the Bank which may be relevant to the recipients of the Note. The Note is not an offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or to participate in any investment strategy. Distribution of material like the Note is in certain jurisdictions restricted by law. Persons in possession of the Note should seek further guidance regarding such restrictions before distributing the Note. The Note is for clients only, and not for publication, and has been prepared for information purposes only by DNB Markets - a division of DNB Bank ASA registered in Norway with registration number NO 984 851 006 (the Register of Business Enterprises) under supervision of the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway (Finanstilsynet), Monetary Authority of Singapore, the Chilean Superintendent of Banks, and on a limited basis by the Financial Services Authority of UK. Information about DNB Markets can be found at dnb.no. Additional information for clients in Singapore The Note has been distributed by the Singapore branch of DNB Bank ASA. It is intended for general circulation and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any product referred to in the Note, taking into account your specific financial objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to purchase any such product. You have received a copy of the Note because you have been classified either as an accredited investor, an expert investor or as an institutional investor, as these terms have been defined under Singapores Financial Advisers Act (Cap. 110) (FAA) and/or the Financial Advisers Regulations (FAR). The Singapore branch of DNB Bank ASA is a financial adviser exempt from licensing under the FAA but is otherwise subject to the legal requirements of the FAA and of the FAR. By virtue of your status as an accredited investor or as an expert investor, the Singapore branch of DNB Bank ASA is, in respect of certain of its dealings with you or services rendered to you, exempt from having to comply with certain regulatory requirements of the FAA and FAR, including without limitation, sections 25, 27 and 36 of the FAA. Section 25 of the FAA requires a financial adviser to disclose material information concerning designated investment products which are recommended by the financial adviser to you as the client. Section 27 of the FAA requires a financial adviser to have a reasonable basis for making investment recommendations to you as the client. Section 36 of the FAA requires a financial adviser to include, within any circular or written communications in which he makes recommendations concerning securities, a statement of the nature of any interest which the financial adviser (and any person connected or associated with the financial adviser) might have in the securities. Please contact the Singapore branch of DNB Bank ASA at +65 6212 0753 in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, the Note. The Note is intended for and is to be circulated only to persons who are classified as an accredited investor, an expert investor or an institutional investor. If you are not an accredited investor, an expert investor or an institutional investor, please contact the Singapore branch of DNB Bank ASA at +65 6212 0753. We, the DNB group, our associates, officers and/or employees may have interests in any products referred to in the Note by acting in various roles including as distributor, holder of principal positions, adviser or lender. We, the DNB group, our associates, officers and/or employees may receive fees, brokerage or commissions for acting in those capacities. In addition, we, the DNB group, our associates, officers and/or employees may buy or sell products as principal or agent and may effect transactions which are not consistent with the information set out in the Note. Additional Information, including for Recipients in the In the United States: The Note does not constitute an offer to sell or buy a security and does not include information, opinions, or recommendations with respect to securities of an issuer or an analysis of a security or an issuer; rather, it is a market letter, as the term is defined in NASD Rule 2211.

Vous aimerez peut-être aussi