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CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PLAN Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP, for further explanation of the modeling, see

DOE, 1994) represents a next logical step in the evolution of a coherent policy that would address global climate change. This study took place four years after a previous study, and within a mixed variety of promising initiatives have been identified by researchers across the country that will help reduce global warming. Literally hundreds of ideas brought to the table and discussed, such as agroforestry techniques, production of alcohol-tion, increased car efficiency, changes in land use planning ', 1, ... 13uilding and equipment performance standards, and more efficient or renewable electricity generation technologies. Most of these initiatives has several other benefits to offer also. This process begins with the White House-sponsored conference on Global Climate Change, held on 10 June and 1 1 th. 1993 in Washington, DC. More than 800 participants attended the conference, including researchers, industry and trade association representatives, and policymakers. Most of the discussion going on / in a series of parallel workshops - aimed at using the energy sector or the discrete problem: Residential energy demand Commercial energy demand Industrial Energy Demand Auto / light truck energy demand Commercial transportation energy demand Urban infrastructure Supply of energy Methane and other gase Joint Implementation Sinks Purpose of the workshop was to identify issues and initiatives that need to be addressed in future analysis. After the conference the analysis team collects the master list of all the ideas and produce a document that includes a one-page description of each initiative, the steps required for implementation, cost and / or savings associated with implementation, a list of stakeholders, and the expected impact on emissions greenhouse gas.

A base case projections of carbon emissions are also produced in conjuction with a list of initiatives. Some of the initiatives involved extending the current policy or

program, and it is important to ensure that the base case reflected their programs at their current level of implementation. Production of the base case is surprisingly difficult part of the process, but also illustrates some contributions models can make. At the beginning of the discussions for the base case assumptions the transport sector, for example, it became clear that there are three different views about how the light duty vehicle sector will grow, and each has several benefits.

Analysts quickly (overnight, really) able to produce cases that reflect the assumptions inherent in every point of view using the IDE light duty vehicle sector. After the participants in the working group were able to see the consequences of every point of view, the discussion quickly focused on its own assumptions rather than on the validity of each party's point of view, and quickly reached a consensus view. In this case the model served the accounting function, ensuring that everything is being calculated the same way, and this function is sufficient to avoid the unpleasant logiam be no need to delay the process.

Once the base case produced individual initiative tested to see whether the model results agree with the estimated carbon savings initiatives respectively. The differences generally fall into two categories: that which the modelers do not understand the full impact of the policy (corrected), and where the analysts who estimate the impact of the basic assumptions used different cases (uncorrected). This part of the process served as a validation exercise because the intention was to test a set of policies, not the individual.

Real insights began to emerge as an initiative-tion was tested in combination with one another. In some cases the combined effect of two different initiatives of the effect of each initiative in isolation. The most interesting cases are those in which the two initiatives tend to offset the .17 .. ach other. In some cases we find that the two initiatives, including one that increases the efficiency of existing technology and others that increase the market share of new technology.

In the electric utility sector we find that the increase in aggressive conservation programs reduce the need for a new generation in general, which reduces the effectiveness of programs designed to enhance the penetration of renewable technologies. In the light duty vehicle sector we find that the average increase Corporate Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards for petrol vehicles reduces the relative attractiveness of alternative fuel vehicles. The validity of this simple insight is confirmed by the participants in working groups and by the participants in the Energy Modeling Forum study is in progress on energy conservation. This insight does not get reported in the final document, but it helps inform policy makers during the process. Final plan includes 44 policy actions, including 31 in the energy sector. Individual measures span a variety of economic sectors, although they are

concentrated in improving energy efficiency in the sector demand. Lots of action or a voluntary partnership program industry / government, such as EPA Green Lights Program and DOE's Motor Challenge Program. In both of these programs, companies are asked to commit to making cost-effective improvements in the efficiency of their lighting or motors. In return, the company received technical assistance and public recognition of the institution. On the supply measures including those aimed at reducing the carbon intensity of fuels used to generate electricity, as well as those to improve efficiency. Examples of fuel substitution measures including the establishment of the use of renewable energy market mobilization collaborative and seasonal natural gas to control NO. Aimed at increased efficiency through the adoption of voluntary standards and programs for efficiency transformers tinggi.Hanya required some legislative action programs. This is the reform of the federal tax subsidy for employer provided parking and increase the generation of hydroelectric power at existing dams. In addition, the two base measures, the Climate Challenge and Climate Wise, included in the plan, although no measurable carbon savings for them. This is a voluntary program in which electric utilities and industrial companies commit to reduce their emissions through whatever method they choose. They were not counted because of concern that could potentially double counting these savings because they may overlap with other actions in the plan. For example, an electric utility could encourage commercial customers to participate in the EPA Green Lights program in conjunction with the efficiency of utility rebates. However, this commitment increases the likelihood that the emission reductions projected in the plan will be achieved. The net result of the plan is to reduce projected carbon emissions from the energy sector with 66 million metric tons of carbon equivalent (MMTCE), and total emissions of 109 MMTCE.Energi related emissions increased from 1990 levels, but emissions of other gases, like methane, and N20 reduction below 1990 levels. Total primary energy consumption is projected to decrease by 2.7 thigh in 2000 or 3% by rencana.Ini is less than 5% reduction in energy-related carbon emissions because the fuel is a fuel switch to less carbon-intensive. Consumption of oil and coal, fuels with high carbon intensity, decline, while natural gas and renewable energy use increased slightly in 2000 (Figure 3.3).

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