Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| August 7, 2012

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst Nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Associate anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104 Technical Team Rajeev Darji Sr. Research Analyst rajeev.darji@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6136

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| August 7, 2012 Market Highlights (% change)
Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI 5282.6 17413.0 13117.51 1394.2 14342.0 1885.9 58344.6 8726.3 92.20 1612.90 2785.20 7480.00 457.9 99.5 Prev. day 1.3 1.3 0.2 0.2 1.5 2.0 1.9 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.7 3.2 0.2 as on August 6, 2012 WoW 1.6 1.6 0.3 0.6 2.6 2.3 1.9 -0.1 2.7 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 1.3 -0.5 MoM 0.1 0.1 3.0 2.9 3.8 2.7 5.3 -1.9 7.2 1.5 1.6 -1.2 1.2 -0.5 YoY 1.4 0.6 14.6 16.2 -10.5 -3.0 10.2 -6.2 6.1 -2.2 -27.1 -17.9 -22.1 3.0

Highlights
European Sentix Investor Confidence declined 30.3-mark in August. UKs Halifax House Price Index (HPI) declined by 0.6 percent in July. Japans Leading Indicators increased to 92.6 percent in the last month.

Asian markets are trading on a firm note taking cues from upbeat global market sentiments triggered by the optimism that positive efforts by the European leaders might curtail the Euro zone debt.

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index weakened 0.2 percent amidst positive global market sentiments and rise in the risk appetite after German chancellor Angela Merkel government backed the European Central banks (ECB) bond buying programme to curtail Euro zone debt. This led to decline in the low yielding currency that is US Dollar Index. US equities also ended on a positive note eyeing better results in the Euro group and optimism that German government will back the bond buying plan of the ECB to trim the Euro zone debt. The currency touched an intra-day low of 82.13 and closed at 82.29.

BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Jun'12) -$/bbl Comex Gold (Jun12) - $/oz Comex Silver(May12) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.4 percent yesterday taking cues from upbeat global market sentiments along with more expected increase in the US non-farm employment payrolls. Additionally, Indian equities also ended on a positive note which supported upside in the currency. However, sharp positive aspect in the currency was capped on the back of negative outlook by the Fitch credit ratings for retail sector and real estate sector. It touched an intra-day high of 55.23 in yesterdays trading session and closed at 55.52 on Monday. For the current month, FII inflows totaled at Rs 1,906.70 crores till 6 August 2012. While on a year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs th 54,172.50 crores till 6 August 2012. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Rupee to trade range bound on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets which will lead to decline demand for the DX and support an upside in the Indian Rupee. However, any revival of concerns from the Euro zone area might create negative market sentiments.
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Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR July12 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR July12 Futures (MCX-SX) 82.30 55.52 55.74 55.75 Prev. day -0.2 0.4 -0.63 -0.62

as on August 6, 2012 WoW -0.7 -0.2 -0.02 0.10 MoM -1.3 0.6 0.09 0.11 YoY 10.0 -19.5 24.22 24.24

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR August12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for August 7, 2012 Support 55.56/55.19 Resistance 55.90/56.21

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| August 7, 2012

Euro/INR
Euro appreciated 0.1 percent due to optimism that German chancellor Angela Merkel backed government backed ECBs bond buying plan to curb the Euro zone debt. However sharp rise in the currency was capped due to unfavorable economic data from the region. The currency touched a high of 1.2404 and closed at 1.2385 on Friday. European Sentix Investor Confidence declined further to 30.3-mark in August with respect to previous decline of 29.6-level in July. Outlook In todays trade we expect Euro to trade rangebound on the back of optimism that German government might back ECBs bond buying plan to curtail the debt. However, negative issues over the disagreement on Spain bailout might cap sharp gains. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR August12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down 68.88/68.62 69.16/69.46 valid for August 7, 2012 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR July12 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR July12 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.24 68.83 68.77 68.8 Prev. day 0.1 0.3 -0.08 -0.05 WoW 1.1 -1.3 0.62 0.65

as on August 6, 2012 MoM 0.7 -0.1 -0.18 -0.17 YoY -13.2 -7.2 8.20 8.26

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

GBP/INR
The Pound depreciated by 0.3 percent yesterday on the back of unfavorable economic data from the country. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of weakness in the DX coupled with upbeat global market sentiments. The currency touched an intra-day low of 1.5544 and closed at 1.5601 on Monday. UKs Halifax House Price Index (HPI) declined by 0.6 percent in July as compared to rise of 0.8 percent in June. British Retail Consortium (BRC) Retail Sales Monitor increased at slow pace of 0.1 percent in July from previous rise of 1.4 percent in June Outlook We expect Pound to trade higher on account of weakness in the DX coupled with upbeat global market sentiments. However, sharp upside in the currency would be prevented on account of expectations of unfavorable economic data from the country. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR August 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for August 7, 2012 Support 86.41/86.18 Resistance 86.95/87.26
Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR July12 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR July12 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5601 86.60 86.64 Prev. day -0.3 0.7 -0.76 WoW -0.7 0.5 -0.92

as on August 6, 2012

MoM 0.5 0.1 0.19

YoY -4.8 -18.2 18.45

86.65

-0.75

-0.91

0.23

18.54

Source: Reuters

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| August 7, 2012

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.3 percent in yesterdays trading session taking cues from favorable economic data from the country. The currency touched an intra-day high of 78.13 and closed at 78.24 on Monday. Japans Leading Indicators increased at slow pace of 92.6 percent in June from previous rise of 95.2 percent a month ago. Outlook In todays session, we expect Yen to depreciate on account of rise in risk appetite in the global markets which will lead to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR August 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for August 7, 2012 Support 70.72/70.36 Resistance 71.34/71.60

JPY (% change)
Last 78.24 0.7096 71.10 71.07 Prev day -0.3 0.1 -0.67 -0.70

as on August 6, 2012 WoW 0.1 -0.1 -0.18 -0.20 MoM -1.7 -1.1 2.05 1.98 YoY -0.2 -24.5 24.40 24.29

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR July12 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR July12 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on August 7, 2012

Indicator BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y Italian Industrial Production m/m Manufacturing Production m/m Italian Prelim GDP q/q German Factory Orders m/m NIESR GDP Estimate Country UK Euro UK Euro Euro UK Time (IST) 4:31am 1:30pm 2:00pm 2:30pm 3:30pm 7:30pm Actual 0.1% Forecast -1.0% -3.9% -0.7% -0.8% Previous 1.4% 0.8% 1.2% -0.8% 0.6% -0.2% Impact Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium

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