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Citywire New Model Adviser Conference Dynamic Quantitative Asset Management Investment Reinvented
Investment reinvented
January 2010
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Contents
Quantitative Asset Management Dynamic Passive Approach Absolute Return Tracker Funds: BNP Paribas Millenium strategy Income Tracker Funds: BNP Paribas UK Enhanced Income strategy Questions
January 2010
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Benefits Calculation power of computers: speed, accuracy, consistency Cost-efficient: multiplying computers is less expensive than multiplying human beings
History Electronic trading began in the early 1970s 33% of all EU and US stock trades in 2006 50% expected by 2010*
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Investment objective
Managers Brain
Black Box
Investment objective
Transparent Box
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Full risk-control
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Added-value of Quantitative Asset Management Dynamic asset allocation Adapting to changing market conditions Capacity to generate alpha De-correlation with traditional strategies
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Dynamic Passive / Enhanced Trackers
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Equities: Europe (DJ Eurostoxx50 TR Index), US (S&P 500 TR Index), Japan (Topix TR Index) and China (HSCEI TR Index) Global Commodities: DJ UBS Commodity Index
Foreign Exchange: USD-EUR Cross currency rate European Real Estate: EPRA Eurozone TR Index Absolute Return Monthly re-allocation Long/Short Limited Volatility Dynamic Passive strategy No stock-picking No active bets Asset allocation follows quant model
*Components of the the BNP Paribas Millenium 10 Europe Series 3 (Sterling Hedged) Total Return Index are liquid indices apart from the Foreign Exchange USD-EUR cross currency rate. January 2010 9
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Constraints = risk-control 1. Target volatility of 10%* Limited risk-budget 2. -25% / +25% on most indices No excessive concentration 3. Overall: 0-100% No net-short No leverage
Risk
*The volatility control mechanism corresponds to a volatility target of 10% which is applied within to this systematic strategy. Please note that these constraints apply to normal market conditions. 10
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2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
20.6%
-8.2%
-14.1%
-22.7%
17.9%
11.3%
20.8%
14.4%
7.4%
-28.3%
27.3%
3.2%
9.7%
8.3%
21.3%
27.5%
18.3%
3.7%
-0.2%
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Powerful diversifier
Correlation The Millenium Index European Bonds 24.2% European Equities -1.9% US Equities -2.5% Japanese Equities -6.5% Chinese Equities 2.0% Currency USD-EUR 5.0% Commercial Commodities Properties 1.9% 4.8%
Sources: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas. BNP Paribas Millenium 10 Europe Series 3 (Sterling Hedged) Total Return Index performances stated are Total Return, as of 31st December 2009. Simulations over 4th January 1999 to 31st December 2009 period. All indices have been converted to GBP for the purpose of calculating performances and volatilities. The Sharpe ratio is defined as the index return above the risk free rate in GBP divided by the volatility of the index. Past performance is no indication of future results. For the purpose of calculations we have assumed a Millenium Index value of 100 prior to the date of 4th January 1999. 1 A negative Sharpe ratio means that the return for investment in the underlying is less than the risk free rate. The annualised risk free rate in Sterling over the calculation period is 4.95%.
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Combine capital protection and exposure to the strategies Example: Privalto Stabiliser Protected Funds* Sit in your low to medium-risk allocation
Direct access to the strategies (no capital protection) Example: Privalto Millenium Tracker Fund* Sit in your medium to high-risk allocation
Low
Medium
High
RISK
* Full name of the Privalto Stabiliser Protected Funds are the IFSL Privalto Stabiliser Protected Fund and the IFSL Privalto Stabiliser Plus Protected Fund . Full name of the Privalto Millenium Tracker Fund is the IFSL Privalto Millenium Tracker Fund.
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5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Expected return (1 year) 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% -24% VaR 95% (1 year ) -23% -22% -21% -20% -19% -18% -17% -16% -15% -14% -13%
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The impacts of rebalancing 10% of the initial portfolio to Millenium by removing the initial assets proportionally to their initial weights have been calculated and correspond to the orange dot The optimal allocations have been calculated allowing up to 10% investment in Millenium (when optimal). The weights of the initial assets have also been optimized
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Cash Bonds Equities Large Cap Equities Small Cap Equities International Real Estate Millenium
Expected return Volatility VaR 95% Proba return<0
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BNP Paribas
UK Enhanced Income Fund
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Key Benefits
8% p.a. gross dividend yield, paid quarterly and which will increase or decrease if the NAV reaches certain thresholds
Reduced Volatility
Significantly lower levels of volatility than the FTSE 100 Index (TR)
AAA Collateral
NAV of shares held by shareholders other than BNP Arbitrage SNC is fully collateralized with G7 AAA Bonds to mitigate any credit risk to BNP Paribas (S&P AA rated)
Daily Liquidity
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A Well Established Strategy Around $35 billion assets under management globally1 BNP Paribas manages in excess of $1.9 billion in buy-write strategies1
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More reactive to market trends Enables the Fund to systematically choose between: Better participation in rising markets High premiums to supplement NAV
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Enhanced Daily Buy-Write Strategy
Everyday the market trend is calculated: Sell short term Out of the Money2 calls. If Positive1 (i.e. above current market levels) If Negative1 Sell short term In the Money3 calls. (i.e. below current market levels)
1 Calculated using a 200 day rolling average 2 OTM Call options are written at a strike of 102% 3 ITM Call options are written at a strike of 98% January 2010 21
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Significant outperformance of the FTSE 100 Index (TR) Over 5% p.a. outperformance With significantly less annualised volatility
Source: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas, as of 31 December 2009. Simulations from 4 January 1999 to 24 September 2009 for the fund. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. No company of the BNP Paribas Group will be liable for any direct or indirect loss resulting from the use of the contents of this report. These simulations are the result of estimates made by BNP Paribas at a given moment on the basis of the parameters selected by BNP Paribas, of market conditions at this given moment and of historical data, which should not be used as guidance , in any way, of the future results of UK Enhanced Income Fund. Consequently the figures and prices indicated in this document have an indicative value only and do not constitute in any way an offer on behalf of BNP Paribas.
Source: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas. Data ranges from 04 January 1999 to 31 December 2009.
Source: BNP Paribas, Bloomberg as of 31 December 2009. Data ranges from 25 September 2009 to 31 December 2009. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. January 2010 22
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Strong & Sharp Bull Market NAV will participate in market growth, though not fully, due to exercised calls Growth in dividend payments Relative performance weaker, absolute performance strongest Bull Market Small, steady price gains are beneficial Growth in dividend payments Relative and absolute performance should be strong Bear Market Large call premium to cushion NAV Relative performance strong, absolute performance weaker Strong & Sharp Bear Market Large call premium to cushion NAV Relative performance strong, absolute performance weakest
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Fund Structure
Collateral
Commission Liquidity
Nil Daily. The Shares are expected to be listed on the Channel Islands Stock Exchange
*BNP Paribas does not give personal tax advice, all investors are reminded to seek their own accounting and tax advice.
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IFSL Privalto Millenium Tracker Fund (Class A Retail) ISIN: GB00B4WXP876; SEDOL: B4WXP87 Bloomberg Ticker: IFPRMTA LN IFSL Privalto Millenium Tracker Fund (Class B Institutional) ISIN: GB00B4WXP983; SEDOL: B4WXP98 Bloomberg Ticker: IFPRMTB LN
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IFSL Privalto Stabiliser Protected Fund: ISIN: GB00B3B5KX74; SEDOL: B3B5KX7 Bloomberg Ticker: IFPSPRA LN IFSL Privalto Stabiliser Plus Protected Fund: ISIN: GB00B3B5KY81; SEDOL: B3B5KY8 Bloomberg Ticker: IFPPPIA LN
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Contact
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Disclaimer
This document, which is confidential to the addressee, was prepared by a Sales and Marketing ("Sales") function within BNP Paribas SA London Branch ("BNPP"). BNPP trades or may trade as principal or have proprietary positions in the instruments referenced herein (or related derivatives) and/or may make markets therein. The author of this information may know the nature of BNPPs trading positions and strategies. BNPP may engage in transactions in a manner inconsistent with the views expressed in this document. This document is solely directed at (a) persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments who fall within Article 19(1) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 and (b) persons to whom it may otherwise lawfully be communicated (together, "relevant persons"). Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. Any person who is not a relevant person must not act or rely on this document or any of its contents. This document is provided to you for information purposes only. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Information and opinions contained in this document have been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied is made that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. This document does not constitute a prospectus and is not intended to provide the sole basis for any evaluation of any transaction or securities mentioned herein. Neither BNP Paribas, nor any officer or employee thereof accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document. Investors should seek their own advice as to the suitability of any derivatives transaction including consideration of the legal, tax, accounting, financial, regulatory and other related aspects of such transaction. BNP Paribas will not be responsible for the consequences of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein (except as required by law or regulation). This document is prepared for Professional Clients and is not intended for Retail Clients in the United Kingdom as defined in the FSA Rules and should not be passed on to any such persons. By accepting this document you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations. BNP Paribas (2009). All rights reserved. BNP Paribas London Branch (registered office 10 Harewood Avenue, London NW1 6AA; tel: [44 20] 7595 2000; fax: [44 20] 7595 2555) is authorised by CECEI and supervised by the Commission Bancaire; it is authorised and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority. Details of the extent of our authorisation and regulation by the Financial Services Authority are available from us on request. BNP Paribas London Branch is registered in England and Wales under no. FC13447.
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