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Should U.S. Policy Be in the Arc6c?

Andrew Holland Senior Fellow for Energy and Climate American Security Project

Why Should the U.S. Care About the Arc6c? Climate Change

Why Should the U.S. Care About the Arc6c? The Arc6c is warming faster than anywhere on Earth

Manifesta6ons of Arc6c Warming

Manifesta6ons of Arc6c Warming

When will it be ice free?

Es6mates vary 2060 according to Na6onal Snow and Ice Center IPCC made no predic6on Some scien6c models predict as soon as 2020

Trans-Arc6c Shipping
Northern Sea Route over Russia will reduce distance from Shanghai- Hamburg by 4000 miles A Direct route over the North Pole will reduce the Distance by 5000 miles Floa6ng Pipeline for Oil and Gas

Why Should the U.S. Care About the Arc6c?

Energy Alaska is the Second Largest Producer of Oil in the U.S. at 572,000 barrels per day Alaska in OPEC?

Arc6c Ocean Energy Explora6on

Oil and Gas Explora6on
The Arc6c holds 22% of the worlds undiscovered energy resources 90 billion barrels of recoverable oil
Source: Arc6c Monitoring Assessment Program

U.S. Arc6c Energy Produc6on

Alaskas North Slope Oil Produc6on, 2011: 562,000 barrels per day of oil

The Trans Alaska Pipeline

Trans-Alaska Pipeline Capacity: 2.1 million barrels of oil per day

Oshore Arc6c Energy Explora6on

Shell has received permission from the EPA and Interior to drill in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas First oil produc6on: 2019-2022 Peak Produc6on: 1.7 million barrels per day

The Arc6c Na6onal Wildlife Refuge

Created in 1980 by Congress 8 million acres designated as Wilderness 1.5 million acres of coastal plane designated for study Drilling would be on just a small area, but environmentally sensi6ve

The Arc6c Na6onal Wildlife Refuge

Poten6al Produc6on from ANWR is unknown USGS (1998):
5.7-16 billion barrels 500,000-1,500,000 barrels per day

Not based on explora6on wells

Poli6cal Controversy over ANWR

Many votes on opening ANWR since 1996 Vetoed by President Clinton Inserted in 05 Energy Bill withdrawn in Conference 2012: House-Passed Energy Bill includes ANWR unlikely to receive a Senate Vote

One nal Word Natural Gas in the Arc6c

Huge poten6al resources both onshore and oshore But
No pipeline No domes6c market in the current Natural Gas glut

My Conclusion: unlikely to be u6lized in the medium term

Limits to Arc6c U6liza6on

Access remains dicult Infrastructure is sparse Extreme climate and weather Domes6c produc6on of energy in the lower 48 is growing rapidly - Alaskan energy may no longer be needed

Conclusions and Ques6ons -

What priority: oil produc6on or Environmental Protec6on? Which choice bejer manages risk? Onshore oil drilling, or oshore?
NOTE: Drilling oshore may displace the need to open ANWR to drilling, as poten6al produc6on cannot exceed the Alaskan pipeline maximum

What is role of the Coast Guard and Navy in this eort?