PROJECTION MODEL FOR BALANCE SHEET

Figures in Rs. Crores

2011
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E

2016E

SOURCES OF FUND
Equit Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Secured/ Unsecured Loan
Total Long term liablities
Current Liablities
Provisions
Total CL & Provisions
Total Liablities

773.81
15179.46
15953.27
99.20
16052.47
5668.10
4104.84
9772.94
25825.41

1094.64
16642.45
17737.10
99.20
17836.30
6637.59
6027.55
12665.14
30501.44

1548.50
18246.45
19794.95
99.20
19894.15
7772.91
8850.85
16623.76
36517.91

2190.52
20005.04
22195.56
99.20
22294.76
9102.42
12996.59
22099.01
44393.77

3098.74
21933.12
25031.87
99.20
25131.07
10659.33
19084.19
29743.52
54874.59

4383.52
24047.03
28430.56
99.20
28529.76
12482.54
28023.23
40505.77
69035.53

APPLICATION OF FUND
Gross Block
Less Depreciation
Net Block
Capital Wok in progress
Investments
Total Fixed Assets
Inventories
Sundry Debtors
Cash and Bank Balance
Total Current Assets
Loans and Advance
Fixed Deposits
Total CA, Loans and advance
Total Assets

12765.82
4420.75
8345.07
1333.40
5554.66
15233.13
5267.53
907.62
98.77
6273.92
2173.89
2144.47
10592.28
25825.41

14399.69
5418.64
8981.04
1457.57
7123.64
17562.25
5835.13
1003.16
107.76
6946.04
2349.40
3603.59
12899.03
30461.28

16242.67
6501.05
9741.62
1593.29
9135.81
20470.72
6463.89
1108.75
117.57
7690.20
2539.07
6055.51
16284.79
36755.51

18321.53
7683.10
10638.44
1741.66
11716.33
24096.43
7160.40
1225.45
128.27
8514.12
2744.07
10175.74
21433.92
45530.35

20666.46
8981.43
11685.03
1903.84
15025.76
28614.63
7931.96
1354.44
139.95
9426.35
2965.61
17099.42
29491.37
58106.00

23311.52
10414.44
12897.08
2081.13
19269.97
34248.18
8786.66
1497.01
152.68
10436.35
3205.03
28734.04
42375.42
76623.60

PROJECTION MODEL FOR PROFIT AND LOSS ACCOUNT

Figures in Rs. Crores
2011
2012E
2013E
2014E
1.Net Sales/ Income from opeartions
22205.01 25710.52 29769.44 34469.14
2.Expenditure
Raw Material, power and fuel
8601.13
9634.47 10791.95 12088.50
Power & Fuel Cost
421.68
466.86
516.88
572.26
Employee Cost
1178.46
1369.66 1591.88 1850.16
Other Manufacturing Expenses
560.57
644.66
741.35
852.56
Selling and Admin Expenses
2408.03
2808.11 3274.67 3818.74
Miscellaneous Expenses
1120.89
1152.26 1184.51 1217.65
Preoperative Exp Capitalised
-60.54
-69.33
-79.39
-90.92
Total Expenditure
14230.22 16006.69 18021.86 20308.96
3. PBDIT
7974.79
9703.83 11747.58 14160.18
4. Depreciation
655.99
997.89 1082.40 1182.05
5. PBIT (3-4)
7318.80
8705.93 10665.18 12978.13
6. Interest
78.11
113.66
165.39
240.67
7. PBT (5-6)
7240.69
8592.27 10499.79 12737.46
8. Tax expenses
2287.69
2933.40 3584.63 4348.57
9. PAT/ Net Profit
4953.00
5658.87 6915.16 8388.89
11. paid up equity share capital
Face value per share
12.Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Weight Assigned

77381.44
1.00
6.40

2015E
2016E
39910.78 46211.50
13540.81
633.58
2150.34
980.44
4453.21
1251.73
-104.12
22905.99
17004.79
1298.34
15706.45
350.21
15356.24
5242.62
10113.62

15167.60
701.46
2499.23
1127.51
5193.10
1286.76
-119.24
25856.42
20355.08
1433.01
18922.07
509.61
18412.46
6286.02
12126.45

77381.44 77381.44 77381.44 77381.44 77381.44

1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
7.31
8.94
10.84
13.07
15.67

Revenue Growth
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2011

2012E

2013E

2014E

2015E

2016E

2015E

2016E

Assumed to be around 10%

Net Profit Growth

Taken as a percentage of PBT- 34.14%

14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0

2011

2012E

2013E

2014E

EPS Growth
20
15
10
5
0
2012E

2013E

2014E

2015E

0
2012E

2013E

2014E

2015E

2016E

2016E

2016E

2016E

Profit & Loss account (Figures in Rs. Crores)

Mar '07

Mar '08

12,913.01

14,581.16

12.92

16,042.32

5,807.48
253.00
630.15
65.32
1,299.17
601.28

6,307.79
309.90
745.00
73.52
1,609.33
682.72

8.61
22.49
18.23
12.55
23.87
13.54

6,864.96
394.12
903.37
402.88
1,684.41
516.90

Preoperative Exp Capitalised

Total Expenses
PBDIT
Interest
PBDT
Depreciation
Profit Before Tax
Tax
Reported Net Profit

-42.52
8,613.88
4,299.13
16.04
4,283.09
362.92
3,920.17
1,263.07
2,657.10

-112.75
9,615.51
4,965.65
24.61
4,941.04
438.46
4,502.58
1,480.97
3,021.61

165.17
11.63
15.50
53.43
15.36
20.81
14.86
17.25
13.72

-72.55
10,694.09
5,348.23
47.65
5,300.58
549.41
4,751.17
1,565.13
3,186.04

Per share data (annualised)

Shares in issue (lakhs)
Earning Per Share (Rs)

37,622.23
7.18

37,686.10
8.28

15.32

37,744.00
8.65

Income
Total Income-Sales
Expenditure
Raw Materials
Power & Fuel Cost
Employee Cost
Other Manufacturing Expenses
Selling and Admin Expenses
Miscellaneous Expenses

Weight Assigned

Growth

0.10

Mar '09

ccount (Figures in Rs. Crores)

Growth

Mar '10

Growth

Mar '11

Weighted Average
Growth Growth rate

10.02

18,664.96

16.35

22,205.01

18.97

8.83
27.18
21.26
447.99
4.67
-24.29

7,140.69
387.34
1,014.87
413.79
2,093.87
1,008.91

4.02
-1.72
12.34
2.71
24.31
95.18

8,601.13
421.68
1,178.46
560.57
2,408.03
1,120.89

20.45
8.87
16.12
35.47
15.00
11.10

15.79
0.00
12.01
10.71
16.22
15.00
16.61
29.49

-35.65
11.22
7.70
93.62
7.28
25.30
5.52
5.68
5.44

-71.88
11,987.59
6,677.37
90.28
6,587.09
608.71
5,978.38
1,965.43
4,012.95

-0.92
12.10
24.85
89.46
24.27
10.79
25.83
25.58
25.95

-60.54
14,230.22
7,974.79
78.11
7,896.68
655.99
7,240.69
2,287.69
4,953.00

-15.78
18.71
19.43
-13.48
19.88
7.77
21.11
16.40
23.43

2.80
14.52
18.32
45.51
18.23
13.49
18.78
17.09
19.62

4.47

38,181.77
10.64

23.01

77,381.44
6.45

-39.38

-6.42

0.20

0.30

0.40

Balance Sheet (Figures in Rs. Crores)

Mar '07

Mar '08

Growth

Mar '09

Growth

Sources Of Funds
Total Share Capital
Equity Share Capital
Reserves
Revaluation Reserves
Networth
Secured Loans
Unsecured Loans
Total Debt
Current Liabilities
Provisions
Total CL & Provisions

376.22
376.22
10,003.78
57.08
10,437.08
60.78
140.1
200.88
3,113.01
1,472.84
4,585.85

376.86
376.86
11,624.69
56.12
12,057.67
5.57
208.86
214.43
3,619.76
1,645.33
5,265.09

377.44
377.44
13,302.55
55.09
13,735.08
11.63
165.92
177.55
4,121.59
1,740.49
5,862.08

Total Liabilities

15,223.81

17,537.19

0.17
0.17
16.20
-1.68
15.53
-90.84
49.08
6.75
16.28
11.71
14.81
15.20

0.15
0.15
14.43
-1.84
13.91
108.80
-20.56
-17.20
13.86
5.78
11.34
12.76

7,134.31
2,389.54
4,744.77
1,130.20
3,067.77
3,354.03
636.69
103.54
4,094.26
1,390.19
796.62
6,281.07

8,959.70
2,790.87
6,168.83
1,126.82
2,934.55
4,050.52
736.93
153.34
4,940.79
1,949.29
416.91
7,306.99

10,558.65
3,286.74
7,271.91
1,214.06
2,837.75
4,599.72
668.67
68.73
5,337.12
2,150.21
963.66
8,450.99

15,223.81

17,537.19

25.59
16.80
30.01
-0.30
-4.34
20.77
15.74
48.10
20.68
40.22
-47.67
16.33
15.20

Application Of Funds
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Depreciation
Net Block
Capital Work in Progress
Investments
Inventories
Sundry Debtors
Cash and Bank Balance
Total Current Assets
Loans and Advances
Fixed Deposits
Total CA, Loans & Advances
Total Assets

Weight Alloted

0.10

19,774.71

19,774.71

17.85
17.77
17.88
7.74
-3.30
13.56
-9.26
-55.18
8.02
10.31
131.14
15.66
12.76
0.20

Mar '10
381.82
381.82
13,628.17
54.39
14,064.38
0107.71
107.71
4,619.54
4,549.94
9,169.48
23,341.57

11,967.86
3,825.46
8,142.40
1,008.99
5,726.87
4,549.07
858.8
120.16
5,528.03
1,929.16
1,006.12
8,463.31
23,341.57

Growth

1.16
1.16
2.45
-1.27
2.40
-35.08
-39.34
12.08
161.42
56.42
18.04

13.35
16.39
11.97
-16.89
101.81
-1.10
28.43
74.83
3.58
-10.28
4.41
0.15
18.04
0.30

Mar '11 Growth

773.81
773.81
15,126.12
53.34
15,953.27
1.94 97.26
99.2
5,668.10
4,104.84
9,772.94
25,825.41

12,765.82
4,420.75
8,345.07
1,333.40
5,554.66
5,267.53
907.62
98.77
6,273.92
2,173.89
2,144.47
10,592.28
25,825.41

102.66
102.66
10.99
-1.93
13.43

Weighted
Average
Growth Rate

-9.70
-7.90
22.70
-9.78
6.58
10.64

41.46
41.46
9.64
0.00
10.43
0.00
0.00
0.00
17.10
46.84
23.31
13.74

6.67
15.56
2.49
32.15
-3.01
15.79
5.68
-17.80
13.49
12.69
113.14
25.16
10.64

12.80
16.37
11.16
9.31
28.25
10.78
10.53
9.10
10.14
8.07
68.04
14.87
13.74

0.40

RATIO ANALYSIS
Sl. No.
RATIO
1
Liquidity Ratios
Current Ratio

FORMULA

2012E

Quick Ratio

Total Current Assets/ Total Current Liablities

(Cash & Equivalent+Shrot term
investments+Accounts receivable)/ Total Current
Liablities

Profitability Ratios
Net profit Margin
Return on Net Worth/ Equity
Return on Asset

(Net Profit/ Total Revenue)*100

(Net Profit/ Net Worth)*100
(Net Profit/ Total Asset)*100

22.01
31.90
18.58

Return on long term funds

(Net Profit/ (Net Worth+Long term Debt))*100

31.73

Efficiency Ratio
Inventory Turnover ratio
Debtors Turnover Ratio
Fixed Asset Turnover Ratio
Asset Turnover Ratio

Total Revenue/ Inventory at cost

Total Revenue/ Debtors
Total Revenue/ Fixed Assets
Total Revenue/ Total Assets

4.41
25.63
1.46
0.84

Investment Valuation Ratio

Face Value
No. of shares
Earnings Per Share

1.02

0.56

1.00
77381.44
7.31

2013E

2014E

2015E

2016E

0.98

0.97

0.99

1.05

0.59

0.65

0.72

0.83

23.23
34.93
18.81

24.34
37.80
18.42

25.34
40.40
17.41

26.24
42.65
15.83

34.76

37.63

40.24

42.50

4.61
26.85
1.45
0.81

4.81
28.13
1.43
0.76

5.03
29.47
1.39
0.69

5.26
30.87
1.35
0.60

1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
77381.44 77381.44 77381.44 77381.44
8.94
10.84
13.07
15.67