TRG ITSWG Telematics

Telematics: Status & Future Perspectives
Egil Juliussen, Ph.D., Principal Analyst Telematics Research Group Inc.

Telematics Overview Technology Trends Market Opportunities Telematics Summary
www.telematicsresearch.com
Telematics Definition/Segmentations
Telematics is solutions based on information flowing to and/or from a vehicle
Segmentation
Auto solutions Auto-Centric Customer-Centric Driver/passenger solutions Service-Centric Monitored telematics Device-Centric Non-monitored telematics Safety and security Navigation & traffic ApplicationCentric Cell phone HFI Entertainment Tracking applications Auto solutions
Comments
Pays for itself-eventually Meets customer needs OEM supplied (OnStar) Aftermarket supplied ACN, e-call, b-call Real-time routing Docking, Bluetooth Music/video download Location, speed, SVT Diagnostic, SW upgrades
Telematics: Two Overlapping Worlds

Auto OEM Telematics
- Auto & OEM focus - Connection to ECUs - Remote diagnostics/upgrades - Cost savings/avoidance - Productivity/operational gains - Compliance with mandates - Lower societys auto crash cost
Customer Telematics
- Driver & passenger focus - Connection to outside world - Connection to mobile device - Safety & security applications - Navigation applications - Entertainment applications - Tracking applications

Auto & Customer Telematics

Auto Telematics
Long-Term Goals Apps & Solutions
Competitive advantage Secure link to auto ECUs Business process change agent
Customer Telematics
Meet customer demands for: Communication & content Appeal to cell phone generation
Remote diagnostics Mobile device integration Data mining & prognostics Real-time navigation ECU software corrections & upgrades Personal & office content access Eventually pays for itself Customer cost savings & convenience Improved CRM High start-up costs & long ROI System complexity Needed by large OEMs by 2010 Required by all OEMs by 2015 A 6-Sigma program after sales Low start-up costs New revenue opportunities
Advantages Driver telematics can be done
Drawbacks Summary
Auto telematics is difficult Auto telematics is limited Required by all OEMs by 2010 Expected by SMS/IM generation Is this enough versus OnStar?
Information Flowing to/from Auto

From Auto
Location Events Operational data Environmental data
To Auto
Data requests Remote control Operational updates Environmental data
Auto-specific Telematics System
From Occupants
Voice information Service requests Content requests Transactions
Occupant-specific
To Occupants
Voice information Driving information Multimedia content Transaction info
Telematics Application Spectrum

Segment
Navigation
Wireless Data
Traffic & weather information Off-board navigation routes Map & Point Of Interest (POI) updates Voice communication, text messages & email GPS location, speed & direction Automatic collision notification, E-call, B-call GPS tracking, speed & direction Email, web content & location-based (POI) Digital music & digital video downloads Electronic Toll Collection data (ETC) Roadway to auto communication (future) Remote diagnostics & Software upgrades Auto operational data Crash data & statistics (Event Data Recorder)
Hands-Free Phone Use Safety & Security Stolen Auto Tracking Content Retrieval Entertainment ITS Applications Auto Electronics
Telematics Approaches
Approach Features Advantages Comments Customer need Strong aftermkt Cell Phone Hands-free IF Speech recognition Low cost solution May be mandate Centric
IF to radio Rapid intro Navigation Navi w/traffic info Customer need Cell phone HFI Time/cost savings Centric Safety & Monitored services Save lives & cost ACN & concierge Piece of mind Security Bluetooth growth Costly solution PND emerging Big investment Long payoff Often with safety/security Commercial TM For fleet ops
Auto Centric GPS Tracking
Remote diagnostics Cost savings Software upgrades Pays for itself Location tracking Cost savings Many applications Productivity gain
Telematics Applications by Countries

Approach USA
Safety/Security Cell phone HFI Navigation Auto centric Cell phone HFI Navigation/traffic Infotainment Safety/Security Navigation/traffic Cell phone HFI Infotainment Cell phone HFI Navigation/traffic Safety/Security Cell phone HFI Navigation
Leaders
OnStar: S/S, AC, CP HFI BMW: CP HFI, S/S, navi M-B: CP HFI, navi, S/S Honda: Navi S/S, CP HFI BMW: S/S, navi, CP HFI M-B: Navi, CP HFI PSA: CP HFI, navi Fiat: CP HFI, navi, S/S Honda: Navi, CP HFI Nissan: Navi, CP HFI Toyota: Navi, CP HFI SK NATE: Navi, CP HFI Mozen: S/S, CP HFI, navi K-Ways: Navi, CP HFI European luxury brands Other luxury brands
Others
Chrysler: CP HFI, navi Toyota: Navi, CP HFI Ford: CP HFI, navi Nissan: Navi, CP HFI GM: CP HFI, navi Volvo: CP HFI, navi, S/S Toyota: CP HFI, navi VW: CP HFI, navi BMW: Navi, CP HFI Mazda: Navi, CP HFI M-B: Navi, CP HFI LG Ez Drive: Navi, CP HFI EverWay: S/S, CP HFI, navi R-S INS: S/S, CP HFI, navi Australia: Holden, Toyota Taiwan: Nissan
Europe
Japan Korea Others
OEM Telematics Availability

45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 USA Europe Japan WW
Telematics Categories
OEM Telematics Telematics systems from auto mfg or dealer Monitored TM In-vehicle system Mobile device IF Interface Options Radio or Navigation Multifunction head-unit Backseat entertainment Applications/Services Safety, security, HFI Remote diagnostics Navigation & POI Voice & data services www.telematicsresearch.com
Telematics
Solutions built on top of content flowing to/from auto
Aftermarket Telematics Telematics systems from 3rd party suppliers Non-Monitored TM Mobile device IF In-vehicle system Interface Options Radio or Navigation Multifunction head-unit Backseat entertainment
Non-Monitored TM In-vehicle system Mobile device interface
Monitored TM In-vehicle system Mobile device IF Interface Options Usually not to driver PC browser to website Email, SMS, voice info
Interface Options Radio or Navigation Multifunction head-unit Backseat entertainment Applications/Services Hands-free phone Navigation & POI Voice & data services Entertainment
Applications/Services Stolen auto tracking Speed-location tracking Geo-fencing Voice & data services
Applications/Services Hands-free phone Navigation & POI Voice & data services Entertainment
Telematics In Key Countries

Approach USA
OEM monitored OEM non-mon Aftmkt non-mon Aftmkt monitored Aftmkt non-mon OEM non-mon OEM monitored Aftmkt monitored OEM monitored OEM non-mon Aftmkt non-mon Aftmkt monitored OEM non-mon OEM monitored Aftmkt non-mon OEM non-mon
Leaders
Others
Europe
Japan Korea Others
OnStar: Monitored Chrysler: Non-monitored BMW: Mon & non-mon Toyota: Mon & non-mon M-B: Mon & non-mon Ford: Non-monitored Honda: Mon & non-mon Nissan: Non-monitored BMW: Mon & non-mon GM: Non-monitored M-B: Non-mon Volvo: Mon & non-mon PSA: Mon & non-mon Toyota: Mon & non-mon Fiat: Mon & non-mon VW: Mon & non-mon Honda InterNavi BMW: Mon & non-mon Nissan CarWings Mazda: Mon & non-mon Toyota G-Book M-B: Non-monitored SK NATE Drive: AM* LG Ez Drive: Aftmkt mon Hyundai/Kia Mozen-AM SsangYong: KTF EverWay K-Ways: Aftmkt mon Renault-Samsung INS European luxury brands Australia: Holden, Toyota Other luxury brands Taiwan-Nissan *AM=Aftermarket monitored
Telematics Regional Differences

Telematics customers and applications have major regional variations that are driven by geographic, social and technology adoption differences
Population and auto density (units per square Km) Navigation and routing complexity Cell phone adoption rate & auto usage restrictions Multi-country travel (multiple languages) Auto purchase patterns (dealer lot or customer order) Auto manufacturers strategy and home market Average auto price Other: mass transit, road tolls, traffic information
Telematics Business Models

Characteristics
Auto Solutions
Network ROI
Comments
Customer Solutions
Equipment purchase
Large investment Operational data Operational cost savings Remote diagnostics New capabilities Software upgrades Crash mitigation/savings Safety & security Cost/time/stress savings Cell phone HFI Convenience/enjoyment Navigation & infotainment Driving-related Personal content Office/work content Driver owns data Value to 3rd parties Economy of scale Rapid deployment TM service providers Cellular service providers Other service providers Insurance & Gov orgs First responders Tight deadlines
Content Solutions
Pay-per-use/Subscrip.
Data Value
Data access fees/disc.
Mandate
Required use

Telematics Technology Needs

Embedded Control
Remote diagnostics Software upgrades Data upload
X-by-Wire
Remote diagnostics Software upgrades Data upload
Driver Assist
Remote diagnostics Software upgrades Auto-auto com link
ITS
Road & traffic info Warning information Roadway-auto link
Auto-Specific TM
Customer-Specific TM
Need for telematics technology

Safety & Security
Accident response Location tracking Peace of mind
Data Value
Auto operational data Crash data & statistics Driver operational data
Mobile Devices
Hands-free usage Data synchronization Auto integration
Connectivity
Peer connection Info connection Office connection
Navigation
Real-time routing Road & traffic info Cost/time savings
Semiconductor Impact on Telematics

TCU Microprocessor Embedded Microprocessor Communications, DSP & Sensors Micro Electro Mechanical Systems (MEMS) System On Chip (SOC)
Lag high-end PC microprocessor performance by 4-6 years Current TCU MPU has performance of 1999 Pentium 4 (500 MHz) 2007 TCU MPU will have performance of 2002 Pentium 4 (1+ GHz) 2010 TCU MPU will have performance of 2005 PC MPU (3+ GHz) High-end embedded MPUs will be used for intelligent vehicle systems Mid-range embedded MPUs for engine, power train and X-by-wire control Low-end embedded MPUs for many controller tasks Cell phone, Bluetooth & Wi-Fi will go from multi-chip to single chip by 2005 Camera, radar & infrared chips will follow wedge: lower cost, increasing speed DSP is a MPU for processing digital data representations of analog signals DSPs will be important for every TM, X-by-wire & intelligent vehicle systems MEMS sensors will lower cost, improve reliability and increase capabilities MEMS accelerometer (air-bag deployment), MEMS gyroscope (navigation) MEMS pressure sensor (tire monitoring), MEMS mirrors (HUD projection) MEMS pitch and roll sensors (active suspension systems) Combines MPU, DSP, memory, sensors and other functions on single chip SOC will decrease TM and related systems dramatically in the next decade SOC will increase capabilities of low-cost telematics and related systems
Telematics and Wireless Technology

Technology Cellular Networks
1G-Circuit switched 2G- Circuit switched 2G-Packet network 2.5G-Packet network 3G-Packet network WiMax Bluetooth Infrared (IrDa) IEEE 802.11b (Wi-Fi) IEEE 802.11a DSRC (based on 11.b) Ultra Wideband (UWB) FM Radio Digital Audio Broadcast Digital Radio Mondiale In-Band On-Channel SDARS Global Positioning
Type
Analog Digital Always-on Always-on Always-on Always-on Near broadband Line of sight Broadband Broadband Broadband Broadband Sideband Digital FM Digital AM Digital AM/FM Satellite Radio Satellite
Comments
U.S. analog phase out in 2007 GSM-TDMA-PDC & CDMA One success network: i-mode GRPS, EDGE, CDMA-1X W-CDMA & CDMA2000-EV-DO Fixed wireless in 2006, Mobile 2008 Peer-to-peer network On all PDAs, some PCs, handsets Wireless LAN Wireless LAN Dedicated to ITS & telematics Emerging versatile technology Used for a variety of applications DAB is used Europe & Canada DRM is emerging ITU standard IBOC or HD Radio is for USA market 2 U.S. systems: XM and Sirius GPS, Galileo, GLONASS (Russia)
Short Range Wireless Broadcast
Other
Telematics I/O Technologies

Type
Displays
Function
Driving information TM system info Convenience info
Technology
Active matrix LCD Organic LED/EL Vacuum fluorescent
Comments
Small safety-related displays needed in front of driver Larger TM displays needed for convenience applications
Head-Up Display Speech I/O Input Control Biometric
Projects driving info LCD & image source HUD needs imaging source and on front windshield Scanning Photonic System a projection device Driver commands Content reading Warning & alerts Driver selection of functions & options Speech recognition SW Text-to-speech SW Pre-recorded speech Multifunction switches Haptic controls Hands-free issues are making speech technology very important for telematics Multifunction controllers are controversial due to learning time Finger print technology is most viable for telematics applications Face recognition emerging
Driver identification Finger print by comparison to pre- Voice recognition recorded pattern Face or eye recognition
Importance of Auto Telematics Data

Auto Design & Production
Next Gen Benefits Benefits
Auto Operational Usage

Data
Auto Crashes & Accidents

Data Data
Remote Diagnostics
Automatic Collision Notification (ACN)
Motor Vehicle EDR
MVEDR Impact
6-sigma type benefits to: Auto crash-worthiness design Safer road design
Immediate, lifesaving benefits
Delayed, longterm benefits
Indirect Participants
Indirect Participants

#M
16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
Telematics System Sales
USA W. Europe Asia
2003
2005
2008
2011
%
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Telematics System Attach Rate
USA W. Europe Asia
2003
2005
2008
2011
Percent of total auto sales
#M
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
WW Telematics Segment Sales
OEM Mon OEM Non-mon Aftmkt Mon Aftmkt Non-mon
2003
2005
2008
2011

Telematics Segments
Devices: 2M to 50M per year In-Vehicle Telematics
- Safety & security TM - Navigation TM - Mobile device integration TM - Entertainment TM - Tracking TM
Personal Telematics
Cell phone users - Hands-free operation Emerging applications - Entertainment & info - Location-based services
Devices: 10M to 500M per year
Overlap
Technology Systems Applications
Commercial Telematics
Light truck fleets - Mobile workforce mgmt Heavy truck fleets - Asset tracking & mgmt - Cost reduction/avoidance - Efficiency & productivity
Overlap
Technology Mobile devices Applications
Commercial Telematics Perspectives

Telematics Software Applications Asset Tracking
- Equipment - Goods - Compliance - Driver
Telematics Hardware Platforms
Productivity Improvement
- Driver communication - Customer communication - Compliance communication - Voice and data
Homeland Security
- Security management - Compliance reporting - Problem detection
Cost Savings
- Equipment performance - Preventive maintenance - Breakdown prediction - Unnecessary usage
- Hazardous goods tracking - Geo-fencing
Communication Tech
Satellite 2.5/3G Cellular Short-range (Wi-Fi & others)
Tracking Tech
GPS technology Cellular networks Satellite networks
Telematics: Technology Discontinuity?

Telematics technology increases functionality
Impact on X-by-wire & embedded auto electronics Impact on driver assist systems & ITS networks
Telematics hastens OEMs need for core competency in software and computer technology
Which OEMs will win the race for this competency?
Technology discontinuities create market change

Which OEMs will gain market share? Which OEMs will lose market share?
TRGs Telematics Scenario

TRG believes that by 2015-2025 (region-dependent) most autos sold will have 2+ communication links
An embedded link to OEM for auto-related telematics applications
The OEM link may be used for driver/passenger applications
A mobile device integrated or embedded link to content from service providers An embedded link to roadway infrastructure and auto-auto communication
This link may be used for driver/passenger applications
TRG believes this is a when-question; not if-question We may disagree on when and how long it will take

TRG ITSWG Telematics

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Telematics: Status & Future Perspectives

Egil Juliussen, Ph.D., Principal Analyst Telematics Research Group Inc.

Telematics: Two Overlapping Worlds

Telematics is solutions based on information flowing to and/or from a vehicle

Auto & Customer Telematics

Advantages Driver telematics can be done

Information Flowing to/from Auto

Auto-specific Telematics System

Telematics is solutions based on information flowing to and/or from a vehicle

Telematics Application Spectrum

Auto Centric GPS Tracking

Telematics Applications by Countries

Japan Korea Others

OEM Telematics Availability

Non-Monitored TM In-vehicle system Mobile device interface

Telematics In Key Countries

Japan Korea Others

Telematics Regional Differences

Telematics Business Models

Telematics: Status & Future Perspectives

Telematics Technology Needs

Need for telematics technology

Semiconductor Impact on Telematics

Telematics and Wireless Technology

Short Range Wireless Broadcast

Telematics I/O Technologies

Head-Up Display Speech I/O Input Control Biometric

Importance of Auto Telematics Data

Auto Operational Usage

Auto Crashes & Accidents

Automatic Collision Notification (ACN)

Motor Vehicle EDR

Immediate, lifesaving benefits

Delayed, longterm benefits

Telematics: Status & Future Perspectives

Telematics System Sales

USA W. Europe Asia

Telematics System Attach Rate

USA W. Europe Asia

Percent of total auto sales

WW Telematics Segment Sales

OEM Mon OEM Non-mon Aftmkt Mon Aftmkt Non-mon

Telematics: Status & Future Perspectives

Devices: 10M to 500M per year

Commercial Telematics Perspectives

Telematics Hardware Platforms

- Hazardous goods tracking - Geo-fencing

Telematics: Technology Discontinuity?

Technology discontinuities create market change

TRGs Telematics Scenario

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