Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Q2/11
1 8 19 20
Increase % 2nd Quarter 2011 1st Quarter 2011 4th Quarter 2010 3nd Quarter 2010 2nd Quarter 2010 57 48 47 44 39
Decrease % 8 7 5 2 3
No Change % 16 30 36 46 51
Regional Comparison
Employers in all four regions report bullish hiring intentions for Quarter 2 2011. The most optimistic forecast is reported by employers in the South, where the Net Employment Outlook stands at +58%, while Outlooks of +54% and +53% are reported by employers in the North and the East, respectively. In the West, the Outlook stands at +43%. Quarter-over-quarter, employers report stronger hiring plans in three of the four regions. The Outlook in the North strengthens sharply, increasing by 22 percentage points, while in the East, employers report an 11 percentage point improvement. The Outlook for the South strengthens by 7 percentage points. Meanwhile, in the West, the Outlook declines by 6 percentage points. When compared with Quarter 2 2010, hiring plans strengthen in all four regions. Considerable improvements of 19 percentage points are reported in the Outlooks for the North and the South, and employers in the East report a 16 percentage point increase. In the West, meanwhile, a slight improvement of 2 percentage points is reported. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers in the East, South and North all forecast dynamic hiring activity in the upcoming quarter, and a brisk hiring pace is expected in the West. Considerable improvement is reported in the Outlook for three regions quarterover-quarter, although the Outlook for the West is moderately weaker. Year-over-year, hiring prospects are stronger in all four regions.
52
54 53 55 58 58
55
60
North
With a Net Employment Outlook for Quarter 2 2011 of +54%, employers report the most optimistic hiring plans since the survey began in Quarter 3 2005. The Outlook improves sharply quarter-over-quarter, increasing by 22 percentage points, while year-over-year, it is 19 percentage points stronger. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers predict a vigorous hiring pace in the coming quarter. A steep increase is reported in the Outlook quarter-over-quarter, and hiring plans are also considerably stronger yearover-year.
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 India joined the survey in Q3 2005.
East
Employers in the East forecast a dynamic labor market in Quarter 2 2011, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +53%, the strongest reported in the region since the survey began in Quarter 3 2005. Considerable improvements are reported in the Outlook both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, by 11 and 16 percentage points, respectively. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report bullish hiring plans for the coming quarter. The Outlook is considerably stronger both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 India joined the survey in Q3 2005.
South
West
Employers anticipate a vigorous hiring pace in Quarter 2 2011, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +58%. This is the strongest Outlook reported for the region since the survey began in Quarter 3 2005. The Outlook improves by 7 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, and by 19 percentage points year-over-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast a booming labor market in Quarter 2 2011. The Outlook is considerably stronger both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 India joined the survey in Q3 2005.
In the West, employers report bullish hiring plans for Quarter 2 2011, with a Net Employment Outlook of +43%. Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook declines by 6 percentage points, but year-over-year it is 2 percentage points stronger. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers anticipate a brisk hiring pace in the coming quarter, despite a moderate decline in the Outlook when compared with the previous quarter. Year-over-year, the Outlook is slightly stronger.
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 India joined the survey in Q3 2005.
Sector Comparisons
Employers in all seven industry sectors anticipate booming hiring prospects during Quarter 2 2011. The most bullish forecasts are reported in the Manufacturing sector and the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector, with Net Employment Outlooks of +56% and +55%, respectively. Dynamic hiring activity is also expected in the Public Administration & Education sector and in the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector, with Outlooks of +52%. Quarter-over-quarter, hiring prospects strengthen in six of the seven industry sectors. The most noteworthy increase of 19 percentage points is reported in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector. Elsewhere, the Mining & Construction sector Outlook increases by 16 percentage points, and employers in the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector report a 13 percentage point improvement. The Outlook for the Public Administration & Education sector improves by 12 percentage points. Year-over-year, stronger hiring plans are reported in all seven industry sectors. Wholesale & Retail Trade sector employers report a sharp Outlook increase of 22 percentage points, while in both the Manufacturing sector and the Public Administration & Education sector, Outlooks improve by 19 percentage points. Transportation & Utilities sector employers report a 17 percentage point improvement, and the Outlook for the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector is 16 percentage points stronger. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers in all seven industry sectors predict a dynamic hiring pace in the coming quarter. The most bullish forecasts are reported in the Manufacturing sector and in the Public Administration & Education sector. Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook improves in six sectors, while year-overyear employers in all seven sectors report stronger hiring prospects.
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Manufacturing Mining & Construction Public Administration & Education Services Transportation & Utilities Wholesale & Retail Trade 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 41 45 47
50 55 55 56 51 52 52 51 44 48 52 50 55 60 65 70
Manufacturing
Employers anticipate a booming labor market in Quarter 2 2011, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +56%. This is the most optimistic Outlook reported in the sector since the survey began in Quarter 3 2005. Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook improves by 10 percentage points, while year-over-year it is 19 percentage points stronger. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report bullish hiring intentions for the upcoming quarter. The Outlook strengthens considerably both quarter-overquarter and year-over-year.
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 India joined the survey in Q3 2005.
2003 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 India joined the survey in Q3 2005.
2003 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Qtr on Qtr Change Quarter 2 2011 % 23 (22)1 40 16 (13)1 17 16 (17)1 6 16 (16)1 22 16 (20)1 10 (8)1 Q1 2011 to Q2 2011
-7 (-3)1 4 (4) 4 -5 -1 (1)1 7 (10)1 -15 1 -5 (-2)1 2 (2)1 1 (3) 5 (6)1 5 -2 2 5 (3)1 -4 (-3)1 5 (9)1 4 (0)1 27 0 (2)1
1 1
2 (-1)1 12 (12) 15 4 3 (3)1 9 (8)1 -10 3 -3 (-3)1 -2 (-2)1 3 (3) 3 (6)1 12 5 5 6 (3)1 -4 (-5)1 6 (4)1 3 (-1)1 34 2 (2)1
1 1
9 (2)1 8 (8) 11 9 4 (2)1 2 (-2)1 5 2 2 (-1)1 -4 (-4)1 2 (0) -2 (0)1 7 7 3 1 (0)1 0 (-2)1 1 (-5)1 -1 (-1)1 7 2 (0)1
1 1
-2 (-2)1 9 (9)1 9 2 (2)1 6 (6)1 -10 6 5 (5)1 8 (9)1 5 (4)1 -1 (0)1 -1 12 -2 (-2)1 5 (5)1 -2 (-2)1 -2 (-2)1 1 (1)1
*EMEA Europe, Middle East and Africa. 1. Number in parentheses is the Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove the impact of seasonal variations in hiring activity. Please note that this data is not available for all countries as a minimum of 17 quarters worth of data is required.
Quarter-on-Quarter Movement
STRONGER
Bulgaria Czech Republic Belgium India Colombia Poland Romania Turkey Taiwan Greece Argentina Brazil Slovenia Austria France Hungary Japan Panama Australia Canada Mexico Netherlands Norway South Africa United Kingdom United States Hong Kong Ireland Switzerland China Costa Rica Germany New Zealand Peru Spain Guatemala Italy Singapore Sweden 11 pts.* 9 pts.* 8 pts. 8 pts. 7 pts.* 7 pts.* 7 pts.* 7 pts.* 6 pts. 5 pts.* 4 pts. 4 pts.* 3 pts.* 2 pts. 2 pts. 2 pts.* 2 pts. 1 pt.* 0 pts. 0 pts. 0 pts. 0 pts. 0 pts. 0 pts. 0 pts. 0 pts. -1 pt. -1 pt. -1 pt. -2 pts. -2 pts. -2 pts. -2 pts. -2 pts. -2 pts. -3 pts.* -4 pts. -4 pts. -5 pts.
Year-on-Year Movement
STRONGER
China India Romania Taiwan Belgium Czech Republic Italy Japan Panama Germany Hungary Mexico Singapore Argentina Canada Ireland Spain Hong Kong Netherlands Brazil France United States Colombia New Zealand United Kingdom Norway Australia Poland Austria South Africa Sweden Switzerland Guatemala Costa Rica Peru Greece 14 pts. 13 pts. 12 pts.* 11 pts. 9 pts. 9 pts.* 9 pts. 8 pts. 7 pts.* 6 pts. 6 pts.* 6 pts. 6 pts. 5 pts. 5 pts. 5 pts. 5 pts. 4 pts. 4 pts. 2 pts.* 2 pts. 2 pts. 1 pt.* 1 pt. 1 pt. 0 pts. -1 pt. -1 pt.* -2 pts. -2 pts. -2 pts. -2 pts. -5 pts.* -7 pts. -9 pts. -10 pts.*
WEAKER
WEAKER
39 Countries and Territories 36 Countries and Territories**
*Indicates unadjusted data. **Year-on-year unavailable for Bulgaria, Slovenia and Turkey which participated for the first time in Q1 2011.
10
Australia
50 40 30 20 10
China
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10
0
-10 -20 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Net Employment Outlook 2009 2010 2011
-20
Hong Kong
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Net Employment Outlook 2009 2010 2011
India
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Net Employment Outlook 2009 2010 2011
11
New Zealand
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Net Employment Outlook 2009 2010 2011
New Zealand joined the survey in Q2 2004. No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.
Singapore
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60
Taiwan
50 40 30 20 10
0
-10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Net Employment Outlook 2009 2010 2011
-20
12
Argentina
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Net Employment Outlook 2009 2010 2011
Brazil
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Brazil joined the survey in Q4 2009. Net Employment Outlook 2009 2010 2011
Canada
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Net Employment Outlook 2009 2010 2011
Colombia
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Colombia joined the survey in Q4 2008. Net Employment Outlook 2009 2010 2011
13
Guatemala
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Guatemala joined the survey in Q2 2008. Net Employment Outlook 2009 2010 2011
Mexico
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Net Employment Outlook 2009 2010 2011
Panama
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Panama joined the survey in Q2 2010. Net Employment Outlook 2009 2010 2011
Peru
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Net Employment Outlook 2009 2010 2011
USA
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Net Employment Outlook 2009 2010 2011
14
Austria
50 40 30 20 10
Belgium
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10
0
-10 -20 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Net Employment Outlook 2009 2010 2011
-20
Bulgaria
50 40 30 20 10
Czech Republic
50 40 30 20 10
0
-10 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Bulgaria joined the survey in Q1 2011. Net Employment Outlook 2009 2010 2011
0
-10 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Czech Republic joined the survey in Q2 2008. Net Employment Outlook 2009 2010 2011
15
Germany
50 40 30 20 10
0
-10 -20 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Net Employment Outlook 2009 2010 2011
Greece
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Net Employment Outlook 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Hungary
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Hungary joined the survey in Q3 2009. No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero. Net Employment Outlook 2009 2010 2011
Greece joined the survey in Q2 2008. No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.
Ireland
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Italy
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Net Employment Outlook 2009 2010 2011
16
Netherlands
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Net Employment Outlook 2009 2010 2011
Norway
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Net Employment Outlook 2009 2010 2011
Poland
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Poland joined the survey in Q2 2008. Net Employment Outlook 2009 2010 2011
Romania
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Romania joined the survey in Q2 2008. No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero. Net Employment Outlook 2009 2010 2011
Slovenia
50 40 30 20 10
South Africa
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10
Net Employment Outlook
0
-10 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Slovenia joined the survey in Q1 2011.
-20
2009
2010
2011
17
Sweden
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10
0
-10 -20 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Net Employment Outlook 2009 2010 2011
-20
Switzerland
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Net Employment Outlook 2009 2010 2011
Turkey
50 40 30 20 10
0
-10 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Turkey joined the survey in Q1 2011. Net Employment Outlook 2009 2010 2011
Switzerland joined the survey in Q3 2005. No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.
UK
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Net Employment Outlook 2009 2010 2011
18
to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook.
Seasonal Adjustment
Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Costa Rica, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, the United Kingdom and the United States to provide additional insight into the survey data. These adjustments make it possible to review the data without the employment fluctuations that normally occur at the same time each year, thus providing a clearer picture of the data over time. Manpower intends to add seasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in the future, as more historical data is compiled. Note that in Quarter 2 2008, Manpower adopted the TRAMO-SEATS method of seasonal adjustment for data.
Survey Question
All employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked the same question, How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of June 2011 as compared to the current quarter?
Methodology
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest standards in market research. The research team for the 39 countries and territories where the survey is currently conducted includes Manpowers internal research team and Infocorp Ltd. The survey has been structured to be representative of each national economy. The margin of error for all national, regional and global data is not greater than +/- 3.9%.
20
21
Manpower Services India Pvt. Ltd. Ground Floor, Tower A Global Business Park MG Road, Gurgaon 122002 Haryana, India Tel: +91 (124) 4213640 marketing@manpower.co.in www.manpower.co.in
2010, Manpower Inc. All rights reserved. 22