Sun Pharma 1QFY2013

1QFY2013 Result Update | Pharmaceutical
August 10, 2012
Sun Pharma
Performance Highlights
(` cr)
Net sales Other income Gross profit Operating profit Net profit Source: Company, Angel Research
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
% chg qoq
14.1
`676
69,965 (5,227) 0.5 690/448 78,600 1 17,557 5,320 SUN.BO SUNP@IN
1QFY2013
2,658 (2) 2,156 1,217 796
4QFY2012
2,330 218 1,839 956 820
1QFY2012
1,636 110
% chg yoy
62.5 52.1 75.5 122.3 58.8
Investment Period
Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
17.2 27.2 (3.0)
1,229 547 501
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (Sun Pharma) reported a much higher-thanexpected 1QFY2013 performance. Its net sales reported a 62.5% yoy growth. The net profit grew by 58.8% yoy, driven by a higher-than-expected improvement in sales and a higher-than-expected expansion in the OPM. In constant US$ terms, the company posted net sales and profit growth of 34% yoy and 31% yoy respectively. However, on account of the stocks rich valuation, we recommend a Neutral rating on the stock. Better-than-expected results: For 1QFY2013, Sun Pharma reported net sales of `2,658cr, up 62.5% yoy, mainly driven by exports. The companys OPM expanded to 45.8% in 1QFY2013 from 33.5% in 1QFY2012. Also, the gross margin came higher at 81.1% from 75.1% in 1QFY2012. The net profit during the quarter reported a 58.8% yoy growth to `796cr, which is higher than expectations, mainly on the back of a higher sales growth and an expansion in the OPM. Outlook and valuation: Sun Pharma is one of the largest and fastest growing Indian pharmaceutical companies. Its management has guided to 15-20% topline growth for FY2013. We expect Sun Pharmas net sales to post a 23.1% CAGR to `12,134cr. However, on account of higher taxation, we expect a flat EPS of `28.2 over FY201214E. The current declaration by Sun Pharma with regards to the possible product damages of $1bn on Pantaprazole, as estimated by Pfizer, could act as an overhang on the stock. However, on account of rich valuations, we recommend a Neutral stance on the stock. Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EPS (`) EBITDA margin (%) P/E (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) P/BV (x) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY2011 5,721 34.8 1,816 34.5 17.5 34.4 38.5 21.0 19.1 7.4 11.9 34.7 FY2012E 8,006 40.2 2,584 42.3 25.0 40.6 27.1 23.9 25.3 5.8 8.4 20.6 FY2013E 9,752 21.7 2,689 4.1 26.0 41.6 26.0 20.3 25.4 4.9 6.0 14.5 FY2014E 12,134 24.4 2,925 8.8 28.2 41.6 23.9 18.8 26.7 4.2 4.5 10.9
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 63.7 10.4 20.6 5.3
Abs. (%) Sensex Sun Pharma
3m 6.9 14.0
1yr 2.5
3yr 17.0
40.4 184.2
Sarabjit Kour Nangra

+91 22 39357600 Ext: 6806 sarabjit@angelbroking.com
Source: Company, Angel Research
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Sun Pharma | 1QFY2013 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 1QFY2013 performance (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) Net sales Other income Total income Gross profit Gross margin (%) Operating profit Operating margin (%) Interest Depreciation PBT Provision for taxation PAT before extra-ordinary item Minority interest(MI) Extraordinary item PAT after extra-ordinary item & MI EPS (`)
1QFY2013 2,658 (1.9) 2,656 2,156 81.1 1,217 45.8 21 80 1,114 192 921 126 0 796 7.7
4QFY2012 2,330 218.1 2,548 1,839 78.9 956 41.1 11 82 1,081 177 904 84 0 820 7.9
% chg qoq 14.1 4 17.2 27.2 (2.6) 3.0 8.9 1.9 49.3 (3.0)
1QFY2012 1,636 110.5 1,746 1,229 75.1 547 33.5 14 65 580 14 565 64 0 501 4.8
% chg yoy 62.5 52.1 75.5 122.3
FY2012 8,006 424.0 8,430 6,364 79.5 3,251 40.6 28
FY2011 5,721 272.7 5,994 4,261 72.6 1,967 34.4 0 204 2,036 128 1,907 91 0 1,816 13.7
% chg 39.9 55.5 40.6 49.37 65.2 42.7 64.8 197.9 55.9 322 42.5
23.8 92.1 1,248.9 62.9 95 58.8
291 3,355 383 2,973 385 0 2,587 25.0
Exhibit 2: 1QFY2013 Actual vs Angel estimates

(` cr) Net sales Other income Operating profit Tax Net profit
Actual 2,658 (2) 1,217 192 796
Estimates 2,000 97 763 152 545
Variance (%) 32.9 59.6 26.4 46.0
Higher-than-expected top-line performance: Sun Pharma reported 62.5% yoy growth in its net sales to `2,658cr during 1QFY2013, above our expectation of `2,000cr. The growth in the top-line was mainly driven by the inclusion of Taros financials as well as strong growth in overall exports. The companys domestic segment reported a dip of 8.0% yoy during the quarter. Overall, exports sales of finished dosage products stood at `1,453cr in 4QFY2012, accounting for 63% of total sales. Taros net sales for the quarter came in at US$159mn, registering a 43% yoy growth. The net profit for the quarter was at US$63mn. The US business grew by 105% led by supplies from Doxil while it ramped up market share to ~80% from the earlier 40%. Ex-Doxil and Taro, US growth of 51% was led by a ramp-up. Operating margins were at 49.6%, up 19% yoy and 4% qoq (had been estimated at 44%), led by an increase in gross margins and a proportionately lower increase in selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses. The PAT at US $63mn was up 72% against an estimated US $55mn.
August 10, 2012
Taro has shared that it remains cautious of the increasing competition and consequential erosion of volume on some of its major products. This could result in significant challenges in maintaining its current performance. Overall, the US sales during the quarter were at US$285mn, up by 105% yoy, accounting for 57% of total sales. Sales of Caraco increased by 185% yoy during the quarter. On the regulatory front, during the quarter, an abbreviated new drug application (ANDA) for one product was filed. With this, ANDAs for 391 products cumulatively have been filed by Sun Pharma and Taro with the USFDA. ANDAs for six products received approvals in 1QFY2013, taking the total number of approvals to 256. Currently, ANDAs for 135 products await USFDA approval, including 17 tentative approvals.
Exhibit 3: Sales trend

2200 2000 1800
(`cr)
1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1QFY2012 2QFY2012 Domestic Sales 3QFY2012 4QFY2012 Export Sales 1QFY2013 638 1022 877 705 1217 696 1475 1487 1908 588
OPM much higher than expectations: The companys OPM expanded to 45.8% in 1QFY2013 from 33.5% in 1QFY2012. Also, the gross margin came in higher at 81.1% from 75.1% in 1QFY2012. Amongst the key expenditure, the R&D and other expenditure increased by 57% yoy and 42.9% yoy respectively.
August 10, 2012
Exhibit 4: OPM trend (%)

50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 33.5 41.4 44.9 41.1 45.8
(%)
30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 1QFY2012 2QFY2012 3QFY2012 4QFY2012 1QFY2013
Net profit came in above expectations: For 1QFY2013, the companys net profit came in at `796cr, up 58.8% yoy. This was higher than the estimated net profit of `568.5cr on account of higher-than-expected sales growth and higher than expected OPM.
Exhibit 5: Net profit trend

900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1QFY2012 2QFY2012 3QFY2012 4QFY2012 1QFY2013 598 501 668 668 796
Concall takeaways
For FY2013, the management has given a revenue guidance of 1520% on constant currency terms. Management has also decided to spin off the domestic formulation business on a going concern basis, comprising certain assets pertaining to the said business to its wholly owned subsidiary, Sun Resins & Polymers Pvt. Ltd. The total medical representative (MR) strength in the domestic market is of ~3000 executives. The company enjoys a market share of 4.6% in the domestic formulations markets. Sun Pharmas overall tax rate is expected to increase from the current levels to 20% of PBT in FY2013.
August 10, 2012
(`cr)
The management has guided for a capex of `500cr for FY2013. R&D expenses have been guided for 6-8% of sales in FY2013 against 5.7% in FY2012.
Investment arguments
Strongest ANDA pipeline: Sun Pharmas US business posted a 33% CAGR over FY200510, which contributed 30% to its total turnover in FY2010. Sun Pharma, along with Caraco and Taro, now has 151 ANDAs pending USFDA approval, which is one of the highest in the Indian pharma space. Sun Pharma has filed around 30 ANDAs in each of the past few years. The company indicated that it would file ~25 ANDAs in FY2013 as well. On the Caraco front, the resolution of the USFDA issue is not clear. The companys remediation work plan to the USFDA on Caraco is ongoing. Domestic business: Sun Pharmas domestic formulation business has grown at a 23% CAGR, ie above the industrys average over FY200512. It contributed 36% to the companys total turnover in FY2012. The company has 3,000 MRs and its field force productivity is among the highest at around `97lakh/MR per year, which has resulted in high margins from the segment. The company has a market share of around 4.6%, with exposure to psychiatry, neurology, CVS, diabetic and gastroenterology segments. In FY2012, Sun Pharma launched 22 products in the domestic market. Healthy balance sheet: Sun Pharma has one of the strongest balance sheets in the sector, with cash of around `5,000cr. The management has indicated that it is looking at inorganic growth and scouting for acquisitions, especially in the US and the emerging markets. Outlook and valuation: Sun Pharma is one of the largest and fastest growing Indian pharmaceutical companies. The management has given a guidance of a 15-20% top-line growth for FY2013. Further, the management expects R&D expenses to be ~6-7% of net sales and capex at `500cr for FY2013. We expect Sun Pharmas net sales to post a 23.1% CAGR to `12,134cr. However, on account of higher taxation, we expect a flat EPS of `28.2 over FY201214E. The current declaration by the company with regards possible product damages of $1bn on Pantaprazole, as estimated by Pfizer, could act as an overhang on the stock. However, on account of rich valuations, we recommend a Neutral stance on the stock.
Exhibit 6: Key assumptions

FY2013E Net sales growth (%) Growth in employee expenses (%) Operating margins (%) Capex (`cr)
FY2014E 24.4 19.5 41.6 500
21.7 15.8 41.6 500
August 10, 2012
Exhibit 7: One-year forward PE band

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12
25x 20x 15x 10x
10
15x
20x
25x
Exhibit 8: Recommendation Summary

Company Reco CMP Tgt. price Upside (`) Alembic Pharma. Aurobindo Pharma Aventis* Cadila Healthcare Cipla Dr Reddy's Dishman Pharma GSK Pharma* Indoco Remedies Ipca labs Lupin Orchid Chemicals Ranbaxy* Sun Pharma Buy Buy Neutral 59 103 91 156 953 399 92 92 475 647 178 (`) 55.4 51.2 9.0 14.0 12.9 6.5 63.3 17.1 11.3 65.8 FY2014E EV/EBITDA (x) 4.3 6.4 17.7 13.5 12.6 12.3 5.6 16.4 5.0 7.8 13.2 4.7 11.2 10.9 FY12-14E FY2014E RoE (%) 29.9 16.4 17.0 26.8 16.6 20.8 10.0 29.0 17.0 26.0 24.7 7.9 28.9 18.8 % PE (x) EV/Sales (x) 6.5 8.2 21.1 19.0 17.5 17.7 7.6 25.5 6.4 11.1 18.6 4.8 16.2 23.9 0.7 0.9 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.6 1.0 5.1 0.9 1.6 2.6 0.8 1.8 4.5 CAGR in EPS (%) RoCE (%) 14.6 61.1 12.0 20.5 18.4 2.3 26.6 8.7 32.8 29.5 26.7 27.8 44.8 0.1 29.4 10.4 16.1 20.2 16.8 15.1 8.9 38.9 15.5 26.1 22.9 11.5 15.8 26.7
2,207 -
Accumulate 874 Accumulate 350 Accumulate 86 Neutral Buy Buy Buy Neutral Neutral 56 406 107 483 676
Accumulate 1,646 1,859 2,105 -
Accumulate 581
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year ending
Company background
Sun Pharma is an international specialty pharma company, with a large presence in the US and India, and a footprint across 40 other markets. In India and rest of the world markets, the key chronic therapy areas for the company are cardiology, psychiatry, neurology, gastroenterology, diabetology etc. We are market leaders in specialty therapy areas in India. In India, the company has emerged as a leading pharma company in India where we are the 6th largest by prescription sales. Also in the US, a key geography, the company has expanded significantly through both in-organic and organic routes.
August 10, 2012
Profit & Loss (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) Gross sales Less: Excise duty Net sales Other operating income Total operating income % chg Total expenditure Net raw materials Other mfg costs Personnel Other EBITDA % chg (% of Net Sales) Depreciation & amort. EBIT % chg (% of Net Sales) Interest & other charges Other income (% of PBT) Share in profit of Asso. Recurring PBT % chg Extraordinary expense/(inc.) PBT (reported) Tax (% of PBT) PAT (reported) Add: Share of earnings of asso. Less: Minority interest (MI) Prior period items PAT after MI (reported) ADJ. PAT % chg (% of Net Sales) Basic EPS (`) Fully Diluted EPS (`) % chg 205 10.5 1,950 21.9 1,950 71.2 3.7 1,878 60 1,818 1,818 22.3 42.6 17.6 17.6 22.3 205 14.5 1,415 (27.4) 1,415 67.9 4.8 1,347 (4) 1,351 1,350 (25.8) 33.7 13.0 13.0 (25.7) 273 13.4 2,036 43.9 2,036 128.4 6.3 1,907 91 1,816 1,816 34.5 31.7 17.5 17.5 34.4 FY2009 4,375 103 4,273 4 4,276 27.3 2,408 856 202 340 1,011 1,864 20.2 43.6 123 1,741 19.7 40.7 FY2010 3,981 27 4,007 237 4,244 (0.8) 2,644 1,098 221 401 925 1,363 (26.9) 34.0 153 1,210 (30.5) 30.2 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014E 5,807 85 5,721 5,721 34.8 3,754 1,461 314 800 1,494 1,967 44.3 34.4 204 1,763 45.7 30.8 8,120 114 8,006 14 8,020 40.2 4,755 1,641 350 1,188 1,576 3,251 65.2 40.6 291 2,974 68.7 37.1 28 410 12.2 3,355 64.8 3,355 385.5 11.5 2,970 385 2,584 2,584 42.3 32.3 25.0 25.0 42.3 272 6.9 3,942 17.5 3,942 788.3 20.0 3,153 464 2,689 2,689 4.1 27.6 26.0 26.0 4.1 2,925 2,925 8.8 24.1 28.2 28.2 8.8 550 4,344 868.8 20.0 3,475 4,344 10.2 272 6.3 9,886 134 9,752 5 9,757 21.7 5,694 1,902 426 1,447 1,919 4,058 24.8 41.6 393 3,665 23.2 37.6 12,843 229 12,134 5 12,138 24.4 7,084 2,366 530 1,800 2,388 5,049 24.4 41.6 433 4,616 26.0 38.0
August 10, 2012
Balance Sheet (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity share capital Preference capital Reserves & surplus Shareholders funds Minority interest Total loans Deferred tax liability Total liabilities APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross block Less: Acc. depreciation Net block Capital work-in-progress Goodwill Investments Current assets Cash Loans & advances Other Current liabilities Net current assets Mis. Exp. not written off Total assets 2,148 685 1,463 157 325 1,859 4,268 1,669 742 1,857 720 3,548 7,353 2,334 801 1,533 145 406 3,066 3,712 607 856 2,249 758 2,954 8,104 3,345 822 2,523 271 772 2,231 6,017 2,194 1,173 2,651 1,423 4,594 10,391 4,667 1,113 3,554 271 1,022 2,213 8,517 3,367 1,043 4,107 2,466 6,051 13,111 5,167 1,506 3,661 271 1,022 2,213 11,615 5,342 1,270 5,003 3,004 8,611 15,778 5,667 1,940 3,728 271 1,022 2,213 15,271 7,466 1,580 6,225 3,737 11,533 18,766 104 6,941 7,045 197 179 (68) 7,353 104 7,725 7,829 193 171 (89) 8,104 104 9,380 9,483 847 426 (365) 10,391 104 12,063 12,166 1,161 303 (520) 13,111 104 14,266 14,369 1,625 303 (520) 15,778 16,704 16,808 2,176 303 (417) 18,766 104 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014E
August 10, 2012
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) Profit before tax Depreciation (Inc)/Dec in working capital Direct taxes paid Cash Flow from Operations (Inc.)/Dec.in Fixed Assets (Inc.)/Dec. in Investments Other income Cash Flow from Investing Issue of Equity Inc./(Dec.) in loans Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) Others Cash Flow from Financing Inc./(Dec.) in Cash Opening Cash balances Closing Cash balances FY2009 1,949 123 3 169 1,907 (640) (1,103) (1,744) (35) (242) 545 267 430 1,239 1,669 FY2010 1,415 153 (467) 162 938 (174) (1,207) (1,381) 8 (333) (294) (619) (1,062) 1,669 607 FY2011 2,036 204 (53) 2,187 (1,137) 835 (301) (254) (486) 442 (299) 1,586 607 2,194 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014E 3,355 291 (284) 385 2,977 (1,322) 18 (1,304) 123 (486) (136) (500) 1,174 2,194 3,367 3,942 393 (585) 788 2,961 (500) (500) (486) (486) 1,975 3,367 5,342 4,344 433 (798) 869 3,110 (500) (500) (486) (486) 2,124 5,342 7,466
August 10, 2012
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) (0.2) (0.8) (0.1) (0.3) (0.2) (0.9) (0.3) (0.9) (0.4) (1.2) (0.4) (1.4) 2.3 75 98 37 168 1.9 88 88 34 182 2.0 81 75 29 151 2.0 81 69 106 116 2.0 87 78 108 111 2.2 92 83 108 110 27.4 38.5 30.2 15.7 19.9 18.2 19.1 25.0 21.0 25.3 38.1 23.9 25.4 41.7 20.3 26.7 48.2 18.8 40.7 96.3 0.9 34.3 0.0 34.3 30.2 95.2 0.6 18.5 0.0 18.5 30.8 93.7 0.7 21.1 0.0 21.1 37.1 88.5 0.9 29.4 6.9 29.4 37.6 80.0 1.0 29.1 0.0 29.1 38.0 80.0 1.1 34.0 0.0 34.0 17.6 17.6 93.7 13.8 68.0 13.0 13.0 72.6 13.8 75.6 17.5 17.5 97.5 16.6 91.6 25.0 25.0 138.8 22.8 117.5 26.0 26.0 148.8 24.8 138.8 28.2 28.2 162.1 24.8 162.3 36.7 6.9 9.5 2.1 15.3 35.0 8.9 51.8 9.3 8.9 2.0 17.3 51.0 8.6 38.5 6.9 7.4 2.5 11.9 34.7 6.6 27.1 4.9 5.8 3.4 8.4 20.6 5.1 26.0 4.5 4.9 3.7 6.0 14.5 3.7 23.9 4.2 4.2 3.7 4.5 10.9 2.9 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014E
August 10, 2012
10
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Sun Pharma No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
Buy (> 15%) Reduce (-5% to 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
August 10, 2012
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Sun Pharma 1QFY2013

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Sun Pharma 1QFY2013

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1QFY2013 Result Update | Pharmaceutical

August 10, 2012

69,965 (5,227) 0.5 690/448 78,600 1 17,557 5,320 SUN.BO SUNP@IN

17.2 27.2 (3.0)

1,229 547 501

Abs. (%) Sensex Sun Pharma

Sarabjit Kour Nangra

Source: Company, Angel Research

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report