Currencies Daily Report

Friday| August 17, 2012

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst Nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Associate anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104 Technical Team Rajeev Darji Sr. Research Analyst rajeev.darji@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6136

Angel Broking Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 Currency: INE231279838 / MCX Currency Sebi Regn No: INE261279838 / Member ID: 10500

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Broking Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on currencies@angelbroking.com

www.angelbroking.com

Currencies Daily Report

Friday| August 17, 2012

Highlights
US Building Permits increased by 0.81 million in July. European Core CPI increased by 1.7 percent in last month. US Unemployment Claims increased to 366,000 in the w/e 10th August.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA 5363.0 17657.2 13250.11 1415.5 14930.3 1957.9 59445.8 9092.8 95.60 1616.10 2820.50 7466.00 453.9 99.22 Prev. day -0.3 -0.4 0.6 0.7 1.9 0.0 2.2 1.9 1.3 0.8 1.4 0.9 0.0 -0.3

as on August 16, 2012 WoW 0.8 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.9 0.9 1.1 -0.1 2.4 -0.1 0.4 -1.0 -2.9 -0.8 MoM 2.3 2.2 2.4 4.3 9.2 7.4 7.4 3.4 3.2 2.3 3.7 -3.9 -2.2 -1.2 YoY 6.1 4.8 16.1 20.1 -6.4 3.4 7.9 0.4 9.2 -9.8 -30.1 -16.4 -24.2 2.7

Asian markets are trading on positive note due to upbeat global market sentiments taking cues from positive housing permit data from US showcasing that the economy is on the path of recovery. Additionally, expectations that German Chancellor Angela Merkel might back the European Central Banks conditions for helping the indebted nations of the region are also creating supportive market sentiments. US Building Permits increased by 0.81 million in July as against a rise of 0.76 million in June. Unemployment Claims increased by 2,000 to 366,000 for the week ending on 10th August from previous rise of 364,000 in prior week. Housing Starts remained unchanged at 0.75 million in last month. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index declined to -7.1-mark in August as compared to earlier fall of -12.9-level in July.

NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Jun'12) -$/bbl Comex Gold (Jun12) - $/oz Comex Silver(May12) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index swung between gains and losses and declined by 0.4 percent towards the end due to rise in the risk appetite amongst market participants and thereby reduced demand for the low yielding currency that is US Dollar Index (DX). The currency was initially quoting higher due to mixed global market sentiments coupled with unfavorable economic data which pointed that the economy was slowing down. US equities settled on positive note taking cues positive global market sentiments after observing favourable data from the US economy and affirmative statement by the German Chancellor Angela Merkel yesterday. The currency touched an intra-day low of 82.38 and closed at 82.42 on Thursday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR July12 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR July12 Futures (MCX-SX) 82.42 55.62 55.92 55.92 Prev. day -0.4 -0.2 0.17 0.20

as on August 16, 2012 WoW -0.4 -0.8 1.19 1.19 MoM -0.7 -0.8 1.19 1.18 YoY 11.7 -18.4 23.25 23.19

Source: Reuters

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated around 0.2 percent yesterday taking cues from dollar demand from the importers. Additionally, DX also traded on a positive note in the early part of the trade which added downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of selling of dollars from the large Indian corporate. It touched an intra-day low of 56.035 and closed at 55.62 on Thursday. For the current month, FII inflows totaled at Rs 5,557.60 crores till 16th August 2012. While on a year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs 57,823.40 crores till 16th August 2012. Outlook In the intra-day we expect rupee to appreciate on the back of positive global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. Additionally dollar demand from the importers and banks might cushion sharp appreciation in the currency.

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR August12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down

valid for August 17, 2012 Support 55.78/55.65 Resistance 56.1/56.25

www.angelbroking.com

Currencies Daily Report

Friday| August 17, 2012

Euro/INR
Euro appreciated 0.5 percent due weakness in the DX and expectation that positive steps might be taken by the European leaders to help the indebted nations of the regions. Additionally, favourable economic data from the region also supported an upside in the currency. It touched an intra-day high of 1.2372 and closed at 1.2354 on Thursday. European Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at 2.4 percent in last month. Core CPI increased by 1.7 percent in July from previous rise of 1.6 percent in June. Outlook In todays session we expect Euro to appreciate due to positive statement by the German Chancellor Angela Merkel that she might back ECBs conditions in return for helping lower the borrowing costs of the indebted nations. Further, favorable data from the region is likely to act as a supportive factor for the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR August12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down 68.5/68.3 68.85/69.1 valid for August 17, 2012 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR July12 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR July12 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.2354 68.71 68.65 68.7 Prev. day 0.5 -0.7 -0.41 -0.42 WoW 0.4 -1.2 0.09 0.10

as on August 16, 2012 MoM 0.6 -1.4 1.87 1.91 YoY -14.3 -4.6 6.13 6.21

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP/INR
The Pound appreciated by 0.3 percent yesterday on the back of positive economic data from the country coupled with upbeat global market sentiments. Additionally, decline in the DX also helped upside in the currency. It touched an intra-day high of 1.5744 and closed at 1.5731 on Thursday. UKs Retail Sales increased at slow pace of 0.3 percent in July as against a previous rise of 0.8 percent in June. Outlook We expect Pound to trade on a sideways with upward bias on the back of positive global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR August 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for August 17, 2012 Support 87.52/87.4 Resistance 87.8/89

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR July12 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR July12 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5731 87.52 87.70 Prev. day 0.3 -0.5 0.18 WoW 0.6 -1.5 1.41

as on August 16, 2012

MoM 0.1 -0.9 2.79

YoY -4.9 -16.5 18.77

87.69

0.19

1.42

2.78

18.79

Source: Reuters

www.angelbroking.com

Currencies Daily Report

Friday| August 17, 2012

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen depreciated by 0.4 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. It touched an intra-day high of 78.89 and closed at 79.32 on Thursday. Outlook We expect Yen to depreciate on account of rise in the risk appetite in the global markets and thereby increase in the demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR August 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for August 17, 2012 Support 70.20/69.90 Resistance 70.90/71.30

JPY (% change)
Last 79.32 0.7005 70.47 70.48 Prev day 0.4 0.4 -0.73 -0.70

as on August 16, 2012 WoW 1.0 0.2 -0.01 -0.01 MoM 1.0 0.1 1.17 1.20 YoY 3.6 -18.2 19.06 19.01

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR July12 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR July12 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on August 17, 2012

Indicator German PPI m/m Current Account Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Country Euro Euro US Time (IST) 11:30am 1:30pm 7:25pm Actual Forecast 0.4% 7.8B 72.5 Previous -0.4% 10.9B 72.3 Impact Medium Medium High

www.angelbroking.com