Raul Ruiz within 2 of Bono Mack: California 36th memo

Seven term Republican incumbent Mary Bono Mack is in trouble in the 36th district, as Democratic challenger Raul Ruiz has pulled into a statistical tie. Bono Mack leads Ruiz by 45% to 43%, but this falls within the surveys 3.9% margin of error, making the lead insignificant. As 53% of voters have not yet heard enough about Ruiz to form an opinion of him, the 36th looks like a prime opportunity for a Democratic pick up. While Ruiz runs a few points behind President Obamas performance in the district (Obama leads Mitt Romney 49% to 48%), this seems to be largely due to Ruiz name recognition among Democratic voters. In fact, while Bono Mack draws only as much support as Romney from Democratic leaning voters, this group has many more undecided voters than in the presidential race. 23% of these voters couldnt decide between Ruiz and Bono Mack, compared with 8% who were undecided in the presidential matchup. However, 49% of these voters couldnt form an opinion of Ruiz, compared with 16% for Mack. This, along with similar numbers in other groups, suggests that Bono Macks entire margin is made of Democratic leaning voters who dont yet know enough about the challenger to make a decision. As the issues of the Ryan budget and Medicare come to take a more central role in the race, Ruiz can count on more favorable comparisons between himself and Bono Mack. A majority of voters, 51%, oppose turning Medicare into a voucher program as the Ryan budget proposes, compared to only 16% who favor such a change. Even conservative Republicans cant stomach this proposal, opposing it by a 16 point margin. Independents oppose it by 54 points. In two groups that Bono Mack will have to win big in order to carry the district in November, whites and seniors, the Medicare issue should be cause for great concern in her campaign. Voters older than 65 favor Bono Mack 54% to 39%, but they oppose changing Medicare by 54 points and favor a candidate who would keep Medicare and Social Security the same by 68 points. Among whites, those numbers are: a 15 point Bono Mack lead, a 44% margin opposed to changing Medicare, and a 56 point edge to a candidate who would keep entitlements the same. While jobs and the economy continue to be the number one issue for a plurality of voters, Medicare and Social Security come in second with 18% of voters ranking it as their most important issue, including 24% of seniors In more general policy matters, Democrats hold edges among voters for doing a better job supporting women (55% to 34%), veterans and the military (45% to 42%) and working families (51% to 41%). PPP surveyed 630 California 36th district voters from August 7th to 9th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.9%. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

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