Commodities Daily Report

Monday| August 27, 2012

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Overview:

Research Team
Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Associate anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| August 27, 2012

International Commodities
Overview
US Core Durable Goods Orders declined by 0.4 percent in July. UKs Revised GDP declined by 0.5 percent in Q2 of 2012. Spot Silver prices gained around 9.7 percent in the last week. US Durable Goods Orders increased by 4.2 percent in last month. LME Copper inventories increased around 0.4 percent during the week.
INR/$ (Spot) Last 55.49 Prev day -0.4 w-o-w 0.4 m-o-m -0.5 y-o-y -17.0

Market Highlights (% change)

as on 24 August, 2012

Asian markets are trading on a firm note on expectation that Chinese and the US policy makers might adopt stimulus measures to foster growth in the economies. US Core Durable Goods Orders declined by 0.4 percent in July as against a previous decline of 2.2 percent a month ago. Durable Goods Orders increased by 4.2 percent in last month from previous rise of 1.6 percent in prior month. The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 1.3 percent during the week on account of expectations of stimulus measures from US and Chinese policymakers. Additionally, hopes that European Finance Ministers will take appropriate steps to solve the Euro Zone debt crisis along with favorable economic data from US also added downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of weak global market sentiments and decline in US equities. The currency touched a low of 81.22 during the week and closed at 81.60 in the last trading session. On a weekly basis, the Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.4 percent taking cues from positive sentiments in the domestic equities along with weakness in the DX. Additionally, selling of dollars from the exporters and banks coupled with expectations of stimulus measures from US and Chinese policymakers also acted as a positive factor for the currency. Also, increase in foreign funds supported upside in the currency. However, sharp positive movement in the currency was capped on the back of month end dollar demand from oil importers and banks. The currency touched a high of 55.11 in last week and closed at 55.49 on Friday. For the current month, FII inflows totaled at Rs 6,748.30 crores till 24 August 2012. While on a year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs 59,014.10 crores till 24th August 2012.
th

$/Euro (Spot)

1.2511

-0.4

1.4

1.6

-13.0

Dollar Index

81.60

0.3

-1.3

-1.4

9.7

NIFTY

5386.7

-0.5

0.4

5.6

11.3

SENSEX

17783.2

-0.4

0.5

5.6

10.1

DJIA

13158.0

0.8

-0.9

0.6

18.0

S&P

1411.1

0.6

-0.5

5.4

19.9

Source: Reuters

The Euro appreciated by around 1.4 percent in the last week on the back of positive economic data from the country. Additionally, a weaker DX also supported upside in the currency. It touched a high of 1.2589 during the week and closed at 1.2511 on Friday. UK Prelim Business Investment declined by 1.5 percent in Q2 of 2012 from earlier rise of 1.9 percent in Q1 of 2012. Index of Services decreased by 0.1 percent in June as compared to rise of 0.4 percent a month ago.

UKs Revised Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined by 0.5 percent in Q2 of 2012 as against a previous decline of 0.7 percent in previous quarter.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| August 27, 2012

Bullion
Gold

International Commodities

Spot gold prices increased more than 3 percent in the last week on the back of weakness in the DX. Sharp upside in the prices was however restricted due to rise in the risk aversion in the global markets. The yellow metal touched a high of $1,674.80/oz during the week and closed at $1,669.85/oz in the last trading session. On the MCX, Gold October contract gained by 2.4 percent and closed at Rs.30,889/10 gms on Friday after touching a high of Rs.30,899/10 gms in the last week. However, appreciation in the Indian Rupee capped further gains in prices in the domestic markets. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, increased by 0.92 percent and stood at 1286.50 tonnes till August 24, 2012 as against 1274.739 tonnes for the week ending on August 17, 2012.

Market Highlights - Gold (% change)

Gold Gold (Spot) Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMAPM Fix) Comex (Dec12) MCX (Oct12) Unit $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz Rs /10 gms 1669.8 30877.0 0.0 0.2 Last 1669.9 30800.0 Prev day 0.0 0.7

as on 24 August, 2012 WoW 3.4 2.5 MoM 2.9 2.7 YoY -5.7 20.4

1667.0

0.1

3.2

3.0

-3.6

3.3 2.4

3.2 3.6

-5.1 17.1

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Silver (% change)

Silver Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg $/oz $/ oz Rs / kg 56949.0 0.3 57980.0 3037.0 3060.6 0.3 0.2 0.5 Last 30.8 Prev day 0.9

as on 24 August, 2012 WoW 9.7 6.0 7.7 9.3 6.2 MoM 11.1 8.4 9.5 11.4 7.0 YoY -25.1 #N/A -22.1 -24.9 -8.1

Silver
Taking cues from rise in gold prices along with upside in the base metals complex, Spot silver prices increased around 9.7 percent during the week. Additionally, weakness in the DX also acted as a positive factor for the silver prices. The white metal touched a high of $30.81/oz in the last week and closed at $30.77 in the last trading session of the week. In the Indian markets, prices gained by more than 6 percent and closed at Rs.56,971/kg on Friday. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee restricted sharp upside in the prices on the MCX. On a weekly basis, holdings in the iShares Silver Trust, declined by 0.9 percent to 9820.81 tonnes on 24th August 2012 from previous level of 9733.39 tonnes on 17th August 2012.

Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot -Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex (Sep12) MCX (Sep12)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Outlook
In todays session we expect precious metals to trade sideways with upward bias on the back of firm global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. In the domestic market depreciation in the Indian rupee keep prices firm in MCX prices. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Oct12 Spot Silver MCX Silver Sep12 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for August 27, 2012 Support 1671/1667 30880/30800 31.01/30.85 57300/57000 Resistance 1679/1683 31020/31100 31.30/31.45 57800/58100
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| August 27, 2012

International Commodities
Energy
Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices swung between gains and losses and managed to marginally appreciate by 0.1 percent in the last week. Crude oil prices increased taking cues from more than expected decline in US crude oil inventories, tensions in the Middle East along with weakness in the DX. Additionally, expectations that three storms are building in Caribbean Sea which will enter Gulf of Mexico coupled with weakness in the DX also supported upside in the prices. Crude oil prices touched a high of $98.29/bbl in the last week and closed at $96.15/bbl in the last trading session of the week. On the domestic bourses, prices traded on a flat note and closed at Rs.5,346/bbl on Friday after touching a high of Rs.5,425/bbl during the week. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee prevented upside in the crude oil prices on the MCX. Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
Crude Oil WTI (Spot) Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (Aug12) ICE Brent Crude (Aug12) MCX Crude (Aug12) Unit $/bbl $/bbl Last 95.8 116.5 96.2 $/bbl 113.6 $/bbl 5346.0 Rs/bbl
Source: Reuters

as on 24 August, 2012 WoW -0.2 0.5 0.1 MoM 6.3 8.8 6.7 YoY 12.5 3.4 12.7

Prev. day -0.1 -1.4 -0.1

-1.2

-0.1

6.7

2.7

0.6

0.0

6.8

35.3

Market Highlights - Natural Gas

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (Aug12) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 2.703 151.9

(% change)

as on 24 August, 2012

Prev. day -4.18 -2.63

WoW -1.06 -0.65

MoM -14.87 -15.28

YoY -31.41 -16.49

Natural Gas
On a weekly basis, Nymex natural gas prices declined by more than 1 percent on the back of fall in demand coupled with more than expected increase in US natural gas inventories. However, weakness in the DX cushioned sharp fall in the prices. Gas prices touched a low of $2.682/mmbtu during the week and closed at $2.703/mmbtu in the last trading session of the week. In the Indian markets prices declined by 0.6 percent and closed at Rs.151.90/mmbtu on Friday after touching an intra-day low of Rs.149.2/mmbtu in the last week. Outlook In todays session we expect crude oil prices to trade sideways with upward bias owing to closure of some of the production in the Gulf of Mexico with likelihood of the Hurricane Isaac entering the region along with mixed trend in the DX. In the domestic market depreciation in the Indian rupee might act as a supportive factor for the MCX prices. Technical Outlook
Unit valid for August 27, 2012 Support Resistance

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Nymex Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart Nymex Natural Gas

NYMEX Crude Oil

$/bbl

96.90/96.0

98.35/99.10

MCX Crude Aug12

Rs/bbl

5320/5270

5400/5440

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| August 27, 2012

International Commodities
Base Metals
The base metals pack traded on a positive note in the last week on the back of expectations that the US and Chinese policymakers will declare stimulus measures, European Finance Ministers will take steps to fight Euro Zone debt crisis along with weakness in the DX. However, decline in LME inventories apart from Copper helped upside in the prices. In the Indian markets appreciation in the Rupee capped sharp gains in the prices. Copper Copper, the leader of the base metals complex increased 1.6 percent in the last week taking cues from weakness in the DX coupled with expectations that global central bankers might adopt stimulus measures to boost the economy. However, increase in LME inventories by 0.4 percent to 235,550 tonnes capped sharp gains in the prices. The red metal touched a high of $7,720.5/tonne during the week and closed at $7,662.75/tonne in the last trading session. On the domestic front, prices increased around 1.3 percent and closed at Rs.425.90/kg on Friday after touching a high of Rs.426.80/kg in the last week. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee restricted further upside in the prices on the domestic front. Copper Inventories The red metals inventories on the LME warehouses increased around 0.4 percent to 235,550 tonnes on 24th August 2012 from the previous level of 234,550 tonnes on 17th August 2012. Weekly copper inventories at warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1.8 percent to 158,938 tonnes last week. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect base metal prices to trade sideways with upward bias on the back of expectation that global bankers might take measures to boost the economy. In the domestic markets depreciation in the Indian rupee is expected to support an upside in the prices in the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper Aug12 MCX Zinc Aug12 MCX Lead Aug12 MCX Aluminum Aug12 MCX Nickel Aug12 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for August 27, 2012 Support 424/421 102.3/101.7 108.3/107.7 104.2/103.6 904/897 Resistance 428/430 103.5/104.1 109.4/110 105.3/105.8
Source: Telequote

Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)

Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (Aug12) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (Aug12) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (Aug12) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (Aug12) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (Aug12) Rs /kg 102.9 $/tonne 1874.0 Rs /kg 108.7 $/tonne 1971.0 Rs /kg 911.1 $/tonne 16489.0 Rs /kg 104.8 $/tonne 1919.5 Rs/kg 425.7 $/tonne Last 7662.8

as on 24 August, 2012 WoW 1.6 MoM 1.3 YoY -15.3

Prev. day 0.2

0.5

1.2

1.2

2.4

1.3

3.4

0.9

-19.1

1.4

2.4

1.3

-2.9

0.9

5.4

3.1

-21.6

1.3

4.4

3.3

-5.9

1.3

4.0

2.1

-17.9

1.7

3.4

2.3

-2.5

1.5

3.9

1.1

-16.0

1.5

2.7

0.5

1.1

Source: Reuters

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 24 August 235,550 4,904,025 114,522 965,375 315,125
th

23 August 237,150 4,913,050 114,834 968,925 315,800

rd

Actual Change -1,600 -9,025 -312 -3,550 -675

(%) Change -0.7 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

917/925

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| August 27, 2012

International Commodities
Important Events for Today

Indicator Bank Holiday German Ifo Business Climate FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks

Country UK Euro US

Time (IST) All Day 1:30pm 9:45pm

Actual -

Forecast 102.8 -

Previous 103.3 -

Impact High Medium

www.angelcommodities.com