Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | September 6, 2012

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Overview:

Research Team
Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135

Anish Vyas - Research Associate anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | September 6, 2012

International Commodities
News and Analysis German Factory Orders increased by 0.5 percent in July. UKs Halifax HPI declined by 0.4 percent in the last month. LME Copper inventories declined by 0.8 percent in todays trade. European equities are trading on a positive note on the back of expectations of bond buying from the European Central Banks (ECB). Asian markets ended on a higher note and US stock futures are trading in the green. European Revised Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remained unchanged at -0.2 percent in Q2 of 2012. German Factory Orders increased by 0.5 percent in July from previous decline of 1.6 percent a month ago. UKs Halifax House Price Index (HPI) declined by 0.4 percent in August as against a previous decline of 0.6 percent in July. Spot gold prices gained 0.9 percent on the back of positive market sentiments that some appropriate steps would be taken in the ECB meeting in later part of the evening today to stem the Euro zone debt crisis. Additionally, weakness in the DX also added to the gains of the gold prices. The yellow metal touched a high of $1,712/oz and was hovering around $1,708.49/oz till 4:30 p.m. However, appreciation in the Indian rupee capped sharp gains in the prices. Spot silver prices gained 1.9 percent and taking cues from strength in the gold prices and weakness in the DX. Also bullishness in the base metals also added to the gains. The white metal touched a high of $32.98/oz and was hovering around $32.85/oz till 4:30 p.m today. The base metals pack traded on a positive note on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets coupled with weakness in the DX. Additionally, decline in LME inventories also supported upside in the prices. Copper, the leader of the base metals complex declined 0.3 percent today on account the back of long liquidation. However, decline in LME copper inventories by 0.8 percent and stood at 213,225 tonnes along with weakness in the DX cushioned sharp fall in the prices. Nymex crude oil prices increased 0.5 percent taking cues from expectations of decline in US crude oil inventories coupled with weakness in the DX. Further, expectation of bond buying from the ECB policymakers has also acted as a positive factor for the crude oil prices. The US Energy Department (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report today at 8:00pm IST and US crude oil inventories is expected to decline by 5.3 million barrels for the week ending on 31st August 2012. Gasoline stocks are expected to fall by 3.4 million barrels whereas distillate inventories are expected to drop by 1.9 million barrels for the same period. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open 5217.65 17320.73 8690.34 1881.54 15189.50 High 5260.60 17418.40 8697.00 1888.18 15366.55

as at 4.30 pm 6 September12
Low 5217.65 17294.74 8646.03 1873.49 15141.20 Last 5238.40 17346.27 8680.57 1881.24 15141.20 % Chg from Prev day 0.24 0.19 0.01 0.38 1.30
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 6 September12
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open 81.26 1.26 55.905 High 81.28 1.2635 56.025 Low 81.085 1.259 55.77 Current 81.15 1.2622 55.78 % Chg from Prev day -0.10 0.18 -0.22
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 6 September12
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Dec12 MCX Gold Oct12 Spot Silver Comex Silver Dec12 MCX Silver Dec12 Crude Oil Nymex Oct 12 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Sept12 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Nov12 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Sept12 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX Sept12 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Sept12 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Sept12 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10g ms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl $/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

1692.84 1696.40 31490.00 32.25 28.23 62049 96.00 113.67 5330 7725.00 437.00 1885.50 104.90 2023 112.80 16071 902.00 1964.00 109.25

1712.10 1708.00 31818.00 32.98 32.835 63430 96.62 114.36 5398 7749.00 439.00 1912.00 106.20 2050 114.00 16373 915.00 1987.50 110.60

1691.04 1696.40 31490.00 32.18 32.2 62049 95.73 113.36 5330 7679.00 435.20 1879.00 104.90 2018 112.80 16010 901.70 1958.25 109.25

1708.49 1708.00 31693.00 32.86 32.8 62967 96.52 114.12 5383 7713.00 435.25 1905.50 105.60 2049 113.65 16183 905.20 1978.50 109.65

0.91 1.02 0.72 1.89 1.64 1.75 0.51 0.91 1.05 -0.25 -0.47 0.93 0.57 1.05 0.75 0.70 0.39 0.76 0.37

Source: Reuters.

Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | September 6, 2012

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session precious metals base metals and crude oil prices are expected to trade sideways with upward bias on the back of rise in the risk appetite and weakness in the DX ahead of the ECB meeting in the evening today to decide on the bond buying program to curtail the Euro zone debt. Also, US crude oil inventories are forecasted to come lower which might support an upside in the crude oil prices.

Technical Outook for evening session 6 September12 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold Oct'12 Spot Gold Silver Dec12 Spot Silver Crude Oil Sep '12 Nymex Crude Oil Oct12 Natural Gas Sep12 LME Copper Copper Nov'12 Zinc Sep12 Lead Sep12 Aluminum Sep12 Nickel Sep12 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 31417 1685 61620 31.98 5283 94.7 153.7 7620 429.6 104.15 111.5 108.2 894 Support 1 31495 1692 62118 32.18 5327 95.5 155.3 7664 432.4 104.75 112.65 109 899 CMP 31703 1708.8 62945 32.84 5380 96.43 156.1 7705 434.8 105.55 113.75 109.55 905.5 Resistance1 31830 1716 63450 33.04 5400 96.65 158.2 7790 440.5 106.2 114.35 110.85 915 Resistance 2 31920 1723 63652 33.36 5422 97.2 159.8 7850 443.85 106.6 114.85 111.2 919

Important Events for Today

Indicator BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks Halifax HPI m/m French 10-y Bond Auction German Factory Orders m/m Asset Purchase Facility Official Bank Rate MPC Rate Statement Minimum Bid Rate ADP Non-Farm Employment Change ECB Press Conference Unemployment Claims ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Crude Oil Inventories Country Japan UK Euro Euro UK UK UK Euro US Euro US US US Time (IST) 9:10am 12:30pm 2:31pm 3:30pm 4:30pm 4:30pm Tentative 5:15pm 5:45pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm 8:30pm Actual -0.4% 2.21/2.1 0.5% 375B 0.50% Forecast 0.3% 0.3% 375B 0.50% 0.50% 141K 369K 52.6 -5.3M Previous -0.6% 2.53/1.9 -1.7% 375B 0.50% 0.75% 163K 374K 52.6 3.8M Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium High High High High High High High High Medium