BT Papers Af-Pak

All is not Well on the
Western Front
Edition: 1st, 2012 Authors: Zaid Hamid Shahzad Masood Roomi Farzana Shah Title Design : Waqar Ahmed Siddiqui Graphics Designing : Shahzad Masood Roomi PDF version for mass distribution All Rights are reserved. No part of this publication can be reproduced without the prior written premission from Brsstacks.
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Contents
Obamas Af-Pak The Afghan Dilemma CIAs Drug War Battlefield Afghanistan Missing Persons of Baluchistan Master Stroke to Victory Killing Af-Pak
8 17 26 44 62 78 88
1 Obamas Af-Pak
A Strategic Quagmire for Pakistan
Shahzad Masood Roomi
After almost a decade, desperation in the US/NATO camps is quite visible as well as explicable. This protracted war has devastated the US image as the sole superpower during the last decade. In this respect, Afghanistan proved much worse than Vietnam. In order to get a face saving exit from the graveyard of empires, the US/NATO forces have been desperately trying since the past two years to get a partial victory in any part of Afghanistan. In March 2009, the Obama administration came up with a radical Af-Pak strategy under the name of A New Strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan to bring stability in Afghanistan by declaring Pakistan as a partactive battlefield. In simple words, the US extended its war in Afghanistan to Pakistan after having no solution to the Afghan resistance. The Pak-US relations have been a subject of consistent betrayals, arm-twisting and intimidations by Washington, lacking any strategic depth due to the clashing long term interests of both the countries. Proclamation of the Af-Pak policy also unearthed Pakistans strategic value in the US foreign policy vis--vis India. Apart from declaring FATA as a battlefield, a more prominent role was given to India in Afghanistan for the purposes of rehabilitation and stability. The following excerpt from Obamas speech was alarmingly troublesome for Pakistans long and short term strategic and security interests;
The future of Afghanistan is inextricably linked to the future of its neighbor, Pakistan. In the nearly eight years since 9/11, al Qaeda and its extremist allies have moved across the border to the remote areas of the Pakistani frontier. This almost certainly includes al Qaeda's leadership: Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri. They have used this mountainous terrain as a safe haven to hide, to train terrorists, to communicate with followers, to plot attacks, and to send fighters to support the insurgency in Afghanistan. For the American people, this border region has become the most dangerous place in the world. But this is not simply an American problem -- far from it. It is, instead, an international security chal-
BrassTacks Policy Papers
lenge of the highest order. Terrorist attacks in London and Bali were tied to al Qaeda and its allies in Pakistan, as were attacks in North Africa and the Middle East, in Islamabad and in Kabul. If there is a major attack on an Asian, European, or African city, it, too, is likely to have ties to al Qaeda's leadership in Pakistan. The safety of people around the world is at stake.
Obama announcing Af-Pak, February 2009
Consequently, the Af-Pak policy defines the following points as its main vertices: 1. Al-Qaeda and its allies have moved to Pakistan. 2. Pakistan is an active military combat zone along with Afghanistan. 3. A high profile attack anywhere in the world in the future will be launched from Pakistan. 4. Al-Qaedas safe heavens in Pakistan are a danger not only for the US, but for the entire world. 5. Pakistans performance against Al-Qaeda and its allies would be monitored by the US otherwise Pakistan will not get any military aid from Washington. 6. The Policy proposed a multilateral solution involving nations with conflicting interests, like inviting India, for stabilization efforts in Afghanistan. Af-Pak has been a subject of severe criticism in Pakistans military and intelligence circles since its inception due to the fact that it declared Pakistan a combat zone, a terrorist harboring land and the epicenter of future terrorist attacks anywhere in the world. The US officials were quick to do the damage control. In 2009, the former US representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Mr. Richard Halbrooke, in a bid to downplay the reaction shown by Pakistani intelligentsia on the term Af-Pak, described it as a mere bureaucratic short form of Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, a year prior to that, the New York Times, on 24th Feb. 2008, quoted the same person on the same subject as stating:
There is a theater of war, that I would call Af-Pak, with two fronts an eastern front and
a western front, said Richard Holbrooke, the former United States ambassador to the United Nations and a supporter of Mrs. Clintons. I believe that we will look back ten years from now and say that Af-Pak was even more important to our national security than Iraq.
This particular statement establishes the fact that the idea of declaring Pakistan as a war zone, just like Afghanistan, was nothing new. After almost two years, it would be prudent to examine if this policy brought about any constructive change and stability in the deteriorated and fidgety regional security profile? The answer is a big NO! Not only has it failed in Afghanistan, but Pakistan also became the direct victim of this flawed strategy, which was based on the intelligence estimates of the same intelligence apparatus, which had led to Americas global humiliation, in the year 2004, when the issue of Iraqi WMDs was discussed in the UNSC. Just like all previous attempts by the US, now it is clear that the Af-Pak proved a classic failure on every axis of the Afghan war as well. When President Obama announced it on 27th March 2009, he declared 2008 to be the deadliest year for the US/NATO troops but after two years of announcement of the Af-Pak, the US/NATO forces and Afghanistan both are in a bigger and deeper mess. 2010 was the deadliest year for the US/NATO forces and keeping the previous pattern in mind it must be not very difficult to predict 2011 in context of the US/NATO casualties in Afghanistan. Obamas Af-Pak 10
Af-Pak and Regional Security

The Af-Pak has devastated the regional security profile due to increased military usage both in Afghanistan and Pakistan. This surge of military operations, on both the sides of Durand Line, triggered a new wave of anti-Americanism with a vengeance particularly among the Pushtun population on both sides of the border. The CIA has stepped up its drone attacks in the FATA region, particularly in North Waziristan Agency, in order to disrupt, dismantle and defeat al-Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan, but it has become clear that these drone attacks are counterproductive. So far, the majority of the victims of these attacks turned out to be Pakistani civilians, who had nothing to do with Al-Qaeda or terrorism. 993 Pakistanis lost their lives in 134 drone attacks in the FATA region during the last year alone. Intriguingly, never even for once, the CIA provided any concrete actionable information to the Pakistani security forces about the presence of Al-Qaeda operatives in a certain area.
Year
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total
Number of Attacks
1 2 2 4 34 53 134 3 230
Death Toll
5 7 23 74 296 709 993 19 2126
Pakistani civilian killed in CIA drone attacks since 2004
Pushtuns on the Pakistani side are enraged, as they are the direct victims of this ruthless war turning the locals against Pakistani State and armed forces for their alliance with US in war on terror. Following are some of the most critical aspects of CIAs unchecked drone war These drone attacks are providing people with a reason to turn against the Pakistani state and military, furthering the agenda of Al-Qaeda and TTP instead of disrupting and dismantling these terrorist outfits. Innocent tribesmen have been pushed into the hands of terrorist outfits and Pakistan has been caught in a vicious cycle with no sign of respite lest current internal and foreign policies continue. Questions over defending the States sovereignty by the armed forces are being arisen in Pakistani circles now as a total lack of vision prevails in Pakistan on this matter both in military and civilian power centers. Even the foreign nationals, not directly related to the issue, are now inquiring about the consent of the Pakistani armed forces in these killings in CIA drone attacks. Social scars created by these unjust and illicit attacks are undermining Pakistan armys efforts to rehabilitate and develop the previously ignored tribal areas. These attacks are widening the trust deficit between Pakistan army and victims of these attacks. That is one of the core reasons behind a surge of terrorism incidents like suicide bombings despite the fact that Pakistan army has successfully pacified restive Swat and Malakand region and chasing the terrorists in the FATA region as well. Killings in suicide bombing incidents have been on the rise since 2008 that includes thousands of Pakistani citizens and security forces personnel who lost their lives in these incidents during last three years.
11
Year
2008 2009 2010 2011
Number of suicide attacks

61 80 52 35
Deaths
917 1018 1224 591
Total
228
3750
Pakistani causalities in suicide attacks in last 4 years
Though Pakistani security forces and intelligence agencies were able to cut down the number of incidents by 35% but the death toll of Pakistanis due to these bombings keep rising. It is clear from the above data that 2010 was the bloodiest year for Pakistan due to these ruthless suicide bombings, killing 102 Pakistanis every month on the average. The victims who became paralyzed permanently and wounded due to these horrific incidents are not included in this table. On the diplomatic front, Af-Pak policy is a strong testimonial of Indian lobbys strength in Washington, which is effective enough to force White House to adopt policies like declaring Pakistan otherwise a frontline ally of the US as a dangerous hostile land, having terrorist safe havens, not only for the US but for the whole region as well. In the presence of so many unsolved bilateral issues skulked between Pakistan and India, it was a horrible idea to give a direct role to India in Afghanistan. The strategy sent a strong signal to Islamabad about the US foreign policy vision in this region for the 21st century, where India clearly holds a key position. This move has
strained the relations between the GHQ and Pentagon where uncertainty and skepticism holds sway instead of partnership. Just like their Pakistani counterparts, the Afghan people have also been suffering since 2001 but the last two years have proved to be the most disturbing for them as well. According to the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) 596 Afghan civilian deaths were caused by the US-led military forces in 2009, representing about a quarter of total 2,412 Afghan civilian deaths during 2009. While other estimates presents a much higher figures. Professor Marc W. Herold of the University of New Hampshire, tallied more than 1000 deaths in US led attacks in Afghanistan during 2009. Deaths occurred due to resistance attacks and terrorist incidents are not included here. 2010 was a security nightmare for Afghanistan as well where the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) recorded 1,271 Afghan civilian deaths in the American-led war in the first half of 2010. These figures do not include the victims of terrorist incidents in various Afghan towns since 2001. Not only did the situation in Pakistan and Afghanistan became more fragile as a result of Af-Pak experiment but the US/NATO forces also become more vulnerable and prone to Taliban attacks in Afghanistan. The table below shows how the security situation in Afghanistan is worsening for the US/NATO troops.
Year
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Deaths
12 70 58 60 131 191 232 195 521 711 6
Total
ISAF causalities in Afghanistan
2287
These facts and figures suffice in proving how flawed the Af-Pak strategy was to begin with and how its implementation is not only ruining the regional stability but also creating an extremely hostile situation for the US/ NATO forces in Afghanistan. During December 2010, the Obama administration released much anticipated December review of the Af-Pak doctrine. Unfortunately, there was nothing in this review that the Afghan people and Pakistani victims of the CIA drone war had anticipated.
What is new in the Af-Pak Review?

The review document released in the Public domain by the Obama administration has nothing significant in it
Obamas Af-Pak 12

13
but same imaginary approach towards an excruciatingly complex war where not only the regional security is in complete jeopardy but the US/NATO troops in Afghanistan are faced with unparalleled survival challenges. The review was ordered by President Obama in December 2009 to gauge the progress on various targets set in the Af-Pak, particularly disrupting and dismantling the Al-Qaeda. This document is an unequivocal depiction of the confusion and nervousness across the US security management apparatus. By keeping in mind the devastation caused by the Af-Pak during the last two years, it was anticipated that this review would recommend some immediate remedial measures in the problematic Af-Pak strategy but it looks like that more devastation and destruction is on its way to the region, particularly for Pakistan. The review document described findings of the Af-Pak strategy in the context of Al-Qaeda, Pakistan and Afghanistan explicitly. On Al-Qaeda, the review maintains the following findings:
There has been a significant progress in disrupting and dismantling the Pakistanbased leadership and cadre of al-Qaeda over the past year. Al Qaedas senior leadership has been depleted, the groups safe haven is smaller and less secure, and its ability to prepare and conduct terrorist operations has been degraded in important ways. We remain relentlessly focused on Pakistan-based al-Qaeda because of the strategic nature of the threat posed by its leadership, and in particular the groups continued pursuit of large-scale, catastrophic antiWestern attacks and its influence on global terrorism. We believe core al-Qaeda continues to view the United States homeland as its principal target, and events over the past year indicate some of its affiliates and allies also are more aggressively pursuing such attacks. Although the global affiliates and allies of al-Qaeda also threaten the U.S. homeland and interests, Pakistan and Afghanistan continue to be the operational base for the group that attacked us on 9/11. The presence of nuclear weapons in the region also lends to its distinct status, highlighting the importance of working with regional partners to prevent extremists, including core al-Qaeda, from acquiring such weapons or materials. There are a range of other groups, including some affiliated with al-Qaida, as well as individuals inspired by al-Qaida, who aim to do harm to our nation and our allies. Our posture and efforts to counter these threats will continue unabated.
The crux of these findings can be summarized as under: 1. US security managers themselves are totally disoriented over the current status of their success against the Al-Qaeda and its leadership. 2. Despite all the sufferings and menace created in the country by the Af-Pak strategy, Pakistan is still accused of not finishing Al-Qaeda sanctuaries in FATA area. 3. Despite an exceptional success by the Pakistan army in Swat against the TTP insurgency, it is believed
that Pakistans nuclear weapons can fall into terrorists hands. 4. Drone attacks on Pakistan would continue with a renewed retribution. This is bound to bring more tribulations for Pakistans national security and internal stability. Apart from these trends in the coming times, following are the findings by the US security managers regarding cooperation with Pakistan: Obamas Af-Pak 14
In 2010, we also improved the United States-Pakistan relationship through the Strategic Dialogue. The Dialogue improved mutual trust, prompted attention to reforms critical to long-term stability, and addressed development objectives important to the people of Pakistan.
This assessment is far from reality on ground where the recent developments have shaken the Pak-US military relationships. Pakistani tribesmen in FATA, enraged by the reckless drone war, are now seeking justice from Pakistani courts against the CIAs inept and illicit intelligence setup. Trust level between Pakistani ISI and the CIA has reached to new lows after CIAs Pakistan station head fled from the country after a lawsuit was filed against him by a tribesman who lost his family in a US drone strike. The Review document also confirms that in*stigation of the US/NATO withdrawal in July 2011 from Afghanistan is conditional and there is a great possibility that it will not start within the stimulated timeframe. It seems that the NATO allies of the US are in no mood to continue this protracted war anymore. So, an unconditional deadline of 2014 was set in the Lisbon Summit in November 2010 and the same timeline is mentioned in the Af-Pak review as well. This makes it clear that the next four years would be absolutely abrasive from the security point of view for the whole region. The Afghanistan portion of the document makes it clear that the US may remain in that country even after 2014 and this particular portion also mentions the following:
While the momentum achieved by the Taliban in recent years has been arrested in much of the country and reversed in some key areas, these gains remain fragile and reversible. Consolidating those gains will require that we make more progress with Pakistan to eliminate sanctuaries for violent extremist networks.
Durability also requires continued work with Afghanistan to transfer cleared areas to their security forces. We are also supporting Afghanistans efforts to better improve national and sub-national governance, and to build institutions with increased transparency and accountability to reduce corruption key steps in sustaining the Afghan government. And we have supported and focused investments in infrastructure that will give the Afghan government and people the tools to build and sustain a future of stability.
No matter how hard Obama administration is pressing for military gains in Helmand and Kandahar through recent military operations, the situation is getting desperate for the US/NATO forces as depicted earlier in this article. But interestingly, like Al-Qaeda, Afghan resistances defeat has also been linked with Pakistan now. After a consistent military failure for 10 years, there is a realization in Washington that the US/NATO forces cannot fight and win against the ferocious Afghan resistance so Pakistan has been blamed once again. Vowing to continue the current policy by the Obama administration is going to bring more harm to a region which has been devastated already due to the Af-Pak since the last two years. The Americans miserably failed in figuring out the root causes for their failures in Afghanistan despite having unparalleled military disparity. The US/NATO forces as well as the whole region are in dismay due to the under mentioned factors: The US/NATO forces adopted extremely humiliating military tactics durUS troops -pinned down by an unseen enemy ing their search and destroy operations in Kandahar and Helmand due to which the Afghan Pushtuns and their brethren in Pakistan are incensed. Searching women, entering in homes without permission and indiscriminatingly killing innocents in aerial bombardment missions have backfired and now the foreign forces are facing the wrath of the Afghan and Pakistani Pushtuns. Instead of fixing their military strategy in Afghanistan so that hearts and minds of Afghans can be won, the US/ NATO accuses Pakistan of being the core reason for their failure. The only party benefiting from this assessment is India who has been looking forward to have a head on collision between Pakistan and the US since 2001. The US/NATO forces have no clear goal to win a war. They are fighting on a hostile land, thousands of miles away from home and have no primary goal in front of them. So the confusion and nervousness is on the rise in the rank and file of the US/NATO troops. The Americans have lost the trust of the Pakistani military establishment and patriots after undermining Pakistans legitimate core security interests by giving India an active role in Afghanistan from where
15
she is busy launching insurgencies in FATA and Baluchistan. Legitimacy of the drone war is a critical angle of the Af-Pak doctrine. The UN mandate for the US/ NATO is limited to Afghanistan only. This fact turns the whole drone war into an illicit one. The Pakistani patriots are annoyed over the continuation of this menace.
Way Forward
It is time for Pakistani policy makers, both in the military and the political echelons, to come together to formulate a comprehensive foreign policy in context of the changing regional security scenario. Pakistan is not a hostile nation towards any state on the globe but Pakistan would protect its sovereignty with a religious fervor, this message must be transformed into a national security policy. Following points must serve the basis for negotiations with the US in the war on terror and formulation of the national security policy: 1. Pakistan must make it clear that she would not accept responsibility for any high level terrorist attack anywhere in the world in the future unless provided with solid proofs by a global body like the UN. Pakistan cannot keep an eye on the whole globe. If the people previously implicated in global terrorism did visit the Pakistani tribal areas, it must be asked that how they managed to sneak in and out of those areas under the very nose of the CIA and other military intelligence setups working in Afghanistan. Due to the US dependence on Pakistan for supplies in Afghanistan, Pakistan has such leverage to renegotiate terms and conditions for its cooperation in war on terror. 2. Pakistan, with its MNNA status, must renegotiate the terms of engagement with the US. Pakistan must make it a part of an agreement for her cooperation in WOT to limit the Indian role in Afghanistan, particularly in issues like training the Afghan national army. 3. Drone attacks must be put to an end or their execution must be subject to confirmation of intelligence and approval by the Pakistani forces / intelligence operatives on ground. 4. The CIA has no mandate under the UN resolution to be on Pakistani soil. It is present on Pakistani soil because it was allowed to be there. But now it is clear, that this policy has flopped miserably so it is time to bring a decisive change in it. The region has been facing a horrific blood bath since the last two years due to the US/NATO menace created under the Af-Pak strategy. More than anything else, Pakistan and her social structure is sinking deeper in this strategic quagmire, which was designed to shake the regional security. It is time for Pakistan to rise and get out of this mess. A combined military, political and diplomatic response will have to be built to make this happen. No single national organ can fight this strategic onslaught alone. ************************
NOTE: This article was originally published in Brasstacks Monthly Security Review (Jan 2011) Vol. 1 No. 8
Obamas Af-Pak 16
2 The Afghan Dilemma
Pakistans Strategic Confusion in the Western Theatre
The 10 years long American war in Afghanistan is taking a turn similar to the one the Soviets fought some 30 years ago. Just like the Soviets, tactical victories by US/NATO forces in Afghanistan soon turned into the strategic encirclement of the allied forces by Afghan resistance groups, which have adopted an immensely difficult to counter strategy of void denying any target for allied forces to hit at. US/NATO forces are fighting against an enemy that is totally elusive but equally ruthless. This strategy has been frustrating the US/NATO forces since the last 9 years but now this frustration has transformed into fear, which is creeping in the file and rank of the invading forces that find themselves encircled by an unseen and unforgiving adversary. This fear of the unseen enemy is now dictating the US/NATO forces tactics in Afghanistan. There is complete chaos in the US camp now as they have failed to secure any strategic goal in Afghanistan. In fear, the US military is taking desperate measures by turning counterinsurgency ops into an ethnic cleansing campaign, which is also going to blow on their faces. On this side of the Durand Line, Pakistan has been caught in a vicious circle due to the prolonged Afghan conflict and complete indecision by the political and military establishment about conclusion of this war. Pakistan has suffered more fatalities in so-called War on terror than the ones faced by the US and NATO forces combined in Afghanistan during the last 9 years. Islamabads current Afghan policy is an amalgamation of confusion and chaos which has been undermining Pakistans national security in the Western theatre since the last decade. Officially, Pakistan is a frontline ally of the US/NATO but ironically, every high level official of the US and NATO countries criticize the Pakistani intelligence agencies for being the biggest accomplice of the Afghan Taliban against the Allies. Recent accusation made by Admiral Michael Mullen about ISI aiding Haqqani network endorses this assertion further. The professional ties between Langley and Islamabad have turned utterly sour in aftermath of recent defiance shown by CIA against the Pakistani demands of putting an end to drone strategy. On the other hand, the Afghan taliban consider Pakistan to be a US/NATO ally and are annoyed at the formers Afghan policy. This situation is a strategic nightmare for Islamabad and Pakistan is losing her diplomatic clout in Afghan affairs after adopting a made in USA Afghan policy! It seems as if in the whole Afghan equation, the Afghan Taliban and other resistance elements are the only
For Pakistan, the current situation demands an incisive re-evaluation of the decade old Afghan policy. This reassessment must be based on the emerging threats to Pakistans national security, particularly on the Western borders due to the presence of foreign forces in Afghanistan instead of the traditional thinking of remaining in the US camp at any cost. Indeed the Indo-US strategic relations in the 21st century and their impact on Pakistan and regional stability would also be a critical consideration during any policy review and Islamabad would not like to further deteriorate its already troubled relations with Washington. But the national and regional security related events that have transpired during the last 10 years as well as the emergence of China as a major global player, necessitate a comprehensive overhauling of Islamabads strategic thinking and the Afghan policy. In the current phase of the Afghan conflict, Pakistan has the leverage to take some strategic strides in order to protect its own sovereignty and bring durable peace in Afghanistan. The recent announcement about pulling army out of North Waziristan has taken the probability of a full-scale operation there out of the equation. But how much this strategic maneuvering would do in securing Pakistani interest of unwind the enraged tribesmen who have announced to avenge the deaths of 47 elders killed in a drone attack carried out hours after the release of CIA mercenary Raymond Davis. Certainly, the announcement of not conducting a military operation is not going to help the Pakistani cause especially in a restive milieu where CIA just has stepped up her drone attacks. These are the US war tactics that have botched her in Afghanistan and not some isolated armed tribesmen who cross into Afghanistan to seek revenge for the deaths of their dear ones killed in the relentless US drone attacks. No part of Pakistani territory has played any role in creating the grim state of affairs faced by the US forces in Afghanistan today. However, it is highly unfortunate that Pakistan has failed miserably in presenting its case in a forceful manner. After realizing the bitter fact that the coalition cannot win in Afghanistan, now the US/NATO have unleashed hell on the Afghan civilians in order to break the resistance by using the scorch earth strategy. Their aim is to break the low and mid level fighting elements of the Afghan resistance physiologically by destroying their dwellings and oppressing their spouses. There are the complex dynamics of the Afghan society which the US forces had completely ignored in their war against the Taliban. The US is desperately trying to win a war using its military strategy alone and this is something that has never worked in the past and is now going to fail in Afghanistan as well.
The Afghan Dilemma 18
stakeholders who are not confused over this nerve-breaking cliffhanger. In fact they are getting more focused inside Afghanistan and are hitting the allied forces with more lethality at a higher frequency. The death toll of the foreign forces in Afghanistan is increasing with every passing year.
Why the US cant win in Afghanistan?

Pressure on the US forces is so intense that it is being felt in Washington as well. President Obama had to sack the US forces commander in Afghanistan twice within the first thirteen months of his administration in the White House. Obama is desperate for securing some sort of military victory in Afghanistan before the 2012 presidential elections. However, this goal remains elusive as the US forces are losing the critical battle of winning the hearts and minds of the common Afghan people due to the following factors: 1. The US army is now profiling the Afghan population, particularly in Khandahar and Helmand provinces in the South, using biometrics finger printers and iris pattern-scanning for keeping the individuals unique biological record for later use. But these tactics are only good for guarding installations and premises; they cannot save the US/NATO soldiers from the IDEs blasts or ambushes. 2. The Taliban are elusive targets and ruthless hidden predators. Their battle strategy has forced the US forces to execute an inhuman annihilation strategy in the villages of Afghanistan. The US Special Forces are using the scorch earth tactics in order to break the resistance but but it is certainly going to enrage the Afghans. In one such operation, Tarok Kolache, a small settlement in Kandahar, was wiped off from the face of the planet by the US forces after being met with stiff resistance put up by the Taliban fighters. The Taliban had planted IDEs and mines in the nearby orchards adopting a very complex deployment pattern. After two failed attempts by the US forces to enter the village, the commander of the ground forces called in an airstrike to pulverize the whole village. The USAFs A-10 and B-57 bombers delivered some 49,000 lbs of ordinance and accomplished that mission. Such operations are breeding a sense of vindictive ferocity among the civilian populace against the ISAF presence on the Afghan soil. These operations are part of Petreauss policy to break the Taliban strongholds in Southern Afghanistan. Petreaus is hoping for surrender from the Taliban to gain an advantageous position prior to the Obama administrations initiation of talks with them. On the other hand, the
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The Petreaus solution -- A Pashtun village -- Before and after!
Taliban have made it clear that no negotiations are possible unless the US/NATO forces have withdrawn completely. For the first time, the Taliban are facing a real threat and challenge from such operations. The reliance on military strategy alone in Afghanistan has failed the US/NATO; their political strategy is on the backseat while Washingtons military complex is calling the shots in the Afghan war. So it would be safe to assume that more ops like Tarok Kolache are in the making. 3. Military operations in Southern Afghanistan are more of revenge than counterinsurgency operations. The US Forces are challenging the centuries old social order of Afghan society, which the Afghans guard jealously. The US forces have enraged the conservative Afghan society, particularly the Pushtuns, by disrespecting their social norms during their search operations in Southern Afghanistan. Body-searching women, entering into houses and killing civilians in raidsas revealed in wikileaks are creating more hatred against the US/NATO forces than any goodwill. 4. Majority of Pushtun population has no representation in the Afghan government and Afghan National Army (ANA). The Current strength of ANA is around 150,000, which would be increased to a total strength of 260,000 by the year 2014, with only 3-4% presentation of Pushtuns from Southern Afghanistan. 5. Karzai is Pushtun but has been isolated after he expressed his disappointment over the removal of General Mc Crystal, and due to the growing civilian casualties as a result of the allied forces attacks. The Pushtuns also consider him as a US puppet in Kabul. Presently, the US has no replacement for Karzai. 6. The US forces are fighting an aimless war creating nuisance among fighting units. There is no enemy in sight but there is certainly one in the battlefield. Taliban tactics have infused a sense of void, silence, isolation and non-engagement with others in the minds of the US/NATO forces. This is intolerable for invading forces who want to engage Taliban in frontal battles. On the other hand, pushing their strategy
to the next level, Taliban often deliver painful side attacks and pinprick bites by attacking moving columns of the US/NATO forces. 7. The US forces have no standardized reporting system, metric or narrative so that a complete broader picture of the whole battlefield can be drawn in order to take important decisions and devise any new strategy. The previous system used by the US/NATO forces cannot cater to the important local factors like ethnicity, linguistics, tribal allegiance and political ties. This fact proves that the Afghan war is many times more complex than the one in Iraq. 8. The US/NATO is forced to turn a blind eye to the massive corruption going on in the Afghan government. Karzai and Northern Alliance are the only supporters of the ISAF forces in Afghanistan. Americans are banking their hopes on Petreaus to pull off another Iraq like success in Afghanistan (Success in Iraq by Petreaus itself remains a debatable issue as that country is still facing ethnic and sectarian chaos) but it seem this success would be a mere tactical win once again. No war can be won without mass support and this is something the US/NATO forces dont have now and would never have in future!
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Future Dynamics of the Afghan Conflict and Pakistan:

Pakistan has emerged as the net loser in the Afghan conflict due to the mismanagement of its foreign policy priorities. There is a complete confusion in Islamabad about the future dynamics of the Afghan conflict, particularly in the post withdrawal scenario. 1. Right now, all the parties in the Afghan conflict are angry at Pakistan. The US feels that Pakistan is supporting the Afghan Taliban; the Afghan Taliban perceive Pakistan as the US/NATO ally because the NATO supplies pass through Pakistan and are keeping the US war alive in Afghanistan. The Northern Alliance feels that Pakistan is supporting the Afghan Pashtuns and Taliban. On the other hand, Pakistan has reasons to believe that the US/NATO/Afghan armies and Indian RAW are supporting the TTP insurgency inside Pakistan using the Afghan soil. 2. The Indians are exploiting the growing mistrust between the US/NATO and Pakistan. They are also trying to take advantage of the Northern Alliances discontentment with Pakistan in the ensuing confusion in order to cultivate gains for themselves. Here the primary Indian objective is to keep Pakistan out of the Afghan affairs by creating an impression that Pakistan is the real cause behind the failure of the US/ NATO forces in Afghanistan. India is using its media as well as its strong political lobby in Washington to achieve this goal. 3. The Indian media has taken over the Afghan cities and countryside. Indian dramas are becoming
to Afghanistan.
4. The US would now be expanding the war inside Pakistan through Baluchistan. The US/ NATO supply line passing through Pakistan is the only reason why the US has not started its drone attacks in Baluchistan, though CIA drones have recently flown over Chaman area in Baluchistan. Any aggression in Baluchistan by the CIA can stir up retaliatory action from Islamabad, threatening their supplies routes
5. The Pakistan army is also faced with ever-mounting pressure from Washington to launch a military operation in North Waziristan Agency against the elements of the Haqqani network, a tribal militia that is part of the Afghan resistance against the occupying forces. Despite the assistance of the Haqqani network, majority of the resistance forces comprise of Afghan Pushtuns and nationalistic elements from certain other ethnic groups. Pakistan army is already spread too thin across the entire swath of FATA and NWFP including the North Waziristan Agency (NWA). A common misperception is that Pakistan army has no presence in NWA but this is far from reality. The Pakistan military has been conducting small-scale ops in the region since 2005. More than 700 terrorists and 300 Pakistani army men have been killed in NWA during the last 5 years. A military operation in North Waziristan is necessary from Pakistans own security point of view, as this territory has become a safe haven for various criminal and terrorist groups from all over Pakistan. But as already stated, the Pakistan army is suffering from severe operational and logistical constraints as its strength is being stretched along the entire swath of FATA and parts of NWFP. The US is not making timely payments to Pakistan army as part of the coalition support fund, making the matters worse. The Pakistan army cannot afford to move more units from its Eastern border into FATA given the current scenario. Apart from its operational feasibility, there are some other factors due to which the Pakistan army cannot launch a full scale military operation inside NWA right now. The military had signed peace agreements with two important militant factions in 2006, Gul Bahadur and Molvi Nazeer, in order to establish its footprint in the area in a peaceful manner. It is not clear what impact a new military operation would have on these peace treaties. Any hasty decision to conduct a comprehensive operation can push Pakistan army into a hornets nest, with the most important question looming ominously: How will the Pakistan army ensure that no further demands would be made for conducting military operations in South Punjab and Quetta as well? The window of opportunity for Pakistan in the Afghan theatre is closing. If Pakistan doesnt play a decisive
blockbuster hits in Kabul homes. On the other hand, Pakistan does not even have a single TV or cable network showing Pakistani content. Pakistan also does not broadcast in Dari, Uzbek or Farsi, practically abandoning the non-Pashtu speakers to the Indian propaganda machine.
role in Afghanistan today it would lose that country forever. In the simplest terms, Pakistans Western border will turn into a hostile one as well and remain that way for a very long time to come. It is high time that Pakistan should cater to the Pushtun sentiment against the US occupation of Afghanistan.
Weighing Pakistans Options:

Right now, Pakistan has three options for formulating its national security policy in the Western theatre given the current geopolitical milieu: in 2001, and keep facing problems like terrorism, insurgencies, chaos and anarchy within Pakistani precincts along with unchecked foreign meddling into its political matters.
1. Pakistan can continue with the current flawed policy, adopted by the Musharraf regime back
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Due to this flawed policy, Pakistan army has been conducting the counterinsurgency operations across FATA and Malakand since 2003 but there is no permanent solution in sight due to the fact that back in 2001, Pakistan became the US ally in WoT unconditionally and accepted the role set by Washington and is now paying the penalty. Pakistan cannot survive with this policy in the future due to the following factors: There would be no end to terrorism, chaos and insurgencies, while other shreds of 4GW would keep haunting Pakistan. TTPs safe havens, sponsored by Indian RAW, would remain protected by CIA inside Afghanistan. The faade of WoT would keep providing cover for the surrogate wars waged by the hostile agencies and elements against Pakistan. CIA would expand its footprint in the other areas of the country. Their presence on Pakistani soil is already undermining Pakistans national security. Internal chaos and anarchy would provide more opportunities to India to use its political clout in the Western capitals to get Pakistan declared a failed and terrorist state. The Afghan resistance would be under greater pressure than ever before due to the extreme tactics used by the US/NATO forces. Right now, the Afghan resistance does not perceive Pakistan as a hostile entity but is monitoring Pakistans Afghan policy suspiciously. The prevailing situation can lead to hostile relations between Afghan resistance and Pakistan. This will be suicidal, keeping in mind the fact that Northern Alliance elements are already antagonistic towards Pakistan. Continuation of the current Afghan policy would encourage the US/NATO forces to step up the ethnic cleansing of Pushtun population inside Afghanistan. This would create violent exasperation among the Pakistani Pushtuns and the Pakistani state and nation will become victims of more violence from within. Pakistans current Afghan policy has not only devastated the national security profile but its catastrophic impact has torn apart the social cohesion within the country as well. Continuation of this policy is the gravest
national security threat as it is the reason behind the vicious cycle of terrorism and chaos. It must be revamped radically and that too in the shortest possible time.
2. Pakistan can declare impartiality in Afghan conflict

This approach is also impractical and would not warranty any stability in the current chaotic situation prevailing in the Pakistani society. It is time to take sides decisively and promptly.
3.Pakistan must decide to play a decisive role in Afghanistan and bring the American war on
terror to its end and force a withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan. Pakistan will have to renegotiate its terms of engagement with the US on all the regional issues particularly Pakistans role in the Afghan peace process.
Pakistan must go for a complete overhaul of its national security and foreign policy vis--vis Afghanistan. But this strategic paradigm shift demands a radical change in the strategic thinking of Pakistani political and military establishment regarding the whole Afghan conflict, the various dynamics of this conflict and post withdrawal scenario in Afghanistan and its regional implications as well. To bring about this change in Islamabads approach towards Afghanistan, Pakistan will have to send a strong and clear signal to the Afghan resistance that Pakistan is not an ally of the US in this war on terror. The following can be effective points to start with in this regard: Putting a break to drone war has become the most critical imperative right now for military estab-
lishment. It is not only provoking tribesmen to pick arm against the state but recent drone attacks after the drop scene of Ryamand Davis episode have put a big question mark on the credibility of Pakistan army among Pakistanis who are now looking towards GHQ to take some decisive step. But GHQ is in complete catch-22 desprately finding a way to Islamabad must ask the US to announce a decisive cutoff date of WOT and the beginning of its withdrawal from Afghanistan. Apart from that, Pakistan can force the US to act on this option by announcing its own date of shutting off the NATO supply line going through Pakistani lands. Activate old channels and links in order to bring all warring factions in Afghanistan on a single point agenda of forming national cohesion and stabilization. Eliminating Indias intimidating role towards Pakistan is also very critical. Indian support to TTP and BLA has been proved in recent counterinsurgency operation in FATA. It can only be achieved if Pakistan ends the Indian role and presence in Afghanistan. Apart from India, Iran is another country having stakes in Afghanistan. A close collaboration between Pakistan and Iran is necessary in order to forge a common front against US presence in Afghanistan and to bring about sectarian stability in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistan FO must take the initiative to engage Iran for a collaborative political solution to the Afghas bnistan situation. This will also help Pakistan to have a friendly/ non-hostile government in Kabul, an indispensable choice for Pakistan in order to keep its Western border secure and safe. Pakistan will not get a friendly government in Kabul if it does not help create one. Pakistan is at the crossroads over the Afghan conflict and its own policy adopted a decade ago after 9/11. Pakistan has an open border with Afghanistan which automatically demands for an assertive role in Afghanistan to ensure regional stability. Stabilizing Afghanistan is critically imperative for bringing the ongoing wave of terror and anarchy in the country to an absolute end. But unfortunately, right now, Pakistans political and military establishment is in complete confusion in this regard and frustration among the masses is rising particularly in FATA. It is crucial time to bring about a radical transformation in Islamabads foreign policy and to reassess the strategic importance of Pak-US relations in the 21st century at a time when alternate global power centers, with converging interests are emerging in the region i.e China.
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NOTE: This article was originally published in Brasstacks Monthly Security Review (Feb 2011) Vol. 1 No. 9
3 CIAs Drug War
The Death Traders Of The Golden Crescent
Farzana Shah
Our government is so corrupt that citizens no longer become incensed when they learn that the CIA is running drugs into the US
(-Terry Reed, Ex USAF Intelligence operative) While Pakistan struggles to develop responses to the Af-Pak strategy and various shreds of 4th GW, fighting a high intensity asymmetrical urban war within its own borders against multiple insurgencies, there is a rather secretive aspect of the 21st century war which remains hidden under the faade of war on terror and that is the drug wars. It is time for Pakistan to expose this sinister aspect of regional geopolitics which is haunting Pakistan. Pakistan has to develop extreme counter measures to neutralize this threat which is now also bankrolling terrorism against the State. Global opium and cocaine production has grown by a factor of 6 (cocaine) and 7 (opium) during the last three decades. The global drug market, expanding at an alarming rate, has reached US$300 billion per year in volume. Millions of people across the world are falling under the spell of opiates and coca bond drugs. The question remains that how this business is thriving despite the efforts by the governments around the world, the UN and the international NGOs? The answer lies in the conniving and covert manipulations of the CIA to carry out its black ops around the globe in order to protect democracy and the US interests. Albeit, the US covert intelligence drug syndicate to flourish, certainly duced drugs as a strategic weapon in the drug trade in the Indochina region as establishment did help the global it was not the Americans who introthe world. The British had established a strategic weapon for the first time in the

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colonial era in the 19th century. This trade played a key role in the expansion of the British Empire. Ties between Washington and Sicilian drug cartel were established even before the birth of the CIA, who inherited the legacy of drug trade from its predecessor OSS (Office of Strategic Services) just as the US inherited the role of global super power from the British. The US took the whole game to the next level by waging wars against communism during the Cold War era. A perusal of the historical role of opium trade in the world presents a very captivating account and helps in comprehending the present geopolitics of the region.
Historical role of drug trade by Colonial Powers

Drug production, trade and trafficking have remained a strategic weapon for every major colonial power in history. The Spaniards, French, British and the Americans, all have used it in order to fulfill not only their budgetary constrains but also to expand their empires by using the wealth gained from this business. Apart from that, drugs have served as the most successful biochemical weapon throughout the history to incapacitate the masses in rival nations. The Spaniards established their drug business in their colony in Philippines in 1840s, the British East India Company stretched its reign across the entire Indian subcontinent with the help of this illicit business, French and the Americans were involved in drug wars in Laos and Burma during the 20th century. The Cold War era gave a tremendous boom to global drug trade and the CIA and the US forces played a central role in the rise of this illicit business.
1. Drugs and the role of East India Company

History of drug trade in Europe can be traced back to the 1600s when the Portuguese merchants used to trade Indian opium into China through Macao. The British joined the trade competition soon afterwards and in 1606 Queen Elizabeth I chartered ships to purchase the finest Indian opium and cargo it back to England. Indian opium was one of the major inducements for the British to capture India as this land, especially its North Eastern provinces bordering with China in particular, were a potential treasure trove for the British crown. But the Portuguese and British were not the only colonial empires inspired by Indian opium, by the end of the 17th century, the Dutch were also among those competing for opium trade to China. By the end of the first quarter of the 18th century, almost the entire Chinese population had become opium smokers. In order to control the worsening situation, the Chinese emperor Yung Cheng, in 1729, put a strict ban on opium smoking and trading. Any kind of drug trading was subject to the Emperors prior consent after the ban was placed. On the other hand, in the Indian subcontinent, East India Company, after the battle of Plassey, started to establish their garrisons in Bengal and other adjacent states along the coastline. By 1773, the East India Company had monopolized their control over the opium trade and had assumed control of Bengal and Bihar, the opium-growing districts of India. After establishing its fortresses in Bengal, the East India Company ensured that no competing company got any share in the Indian opium crop. British shipping dominated the opium trade out of Calcutta to China. After capturing Bengal and Bihar, the British expanded their production and for the next 130 years the East India Company continued its export to China defying the rules and laws implemented by the Chinese Empire. This confrontation led to two armed conflicts, known as the Opium Wars, between China and the British colonial forces.
2. Opium Wars in China

Chinese opium wars were fought in 1839-1842 and in 1856-1860. The British smugglers in the garb of merchants used to smuggle opium into China where the Qing dynasty had introduced strict laws to punish illegal drug trade. Using all its technological superiority, the British Colonialists defeated the Chinese in both the opium wars and forced it to allow an unrestricted opium trade to China, after signing the treaties of Nanking and Tianjin. For the Chinese masses these treaties were perceived as humiliating and expressed their anger and resentment through rebellions in the 1850s and 1890s, which eventually led to the downfall of Qing dynasty, bringing the dynastic Chinese history to its ultimate end. These treaties enabled the British to convert China into the largest drug market of the time. By the 1900s, there were 13.5 million addicts in China.
China lost Hong Kong after the first opium war
The Opium Wars proved to be extra advantageous for the British as not only did they bring the Chinese drug market under their sway but also captured the strategically important territory of Hong Kong, which remained under the British control till 1997.
CIA Drug Wars in Modern times

The American involvement in global drug trade dates back to 1816 when an industrialist, John Jacob Astor of New York City, joined the opium smuggling trade. His American Fur Company used to purchase about ten tons of Turkish opium in order to ship the contraband item to Canton on the Macedonian. Astor later left the China opium trade and sold solely to England. Within a century, heroin addiction had reached alarming levels and in 1905 the US Congress had to ban the import of opiates by the US.
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After World War II, the world was divided into two opposing camps, the imperialist and the communist. The US took over the role of the British after the war. During the post World War II era, even before the birth of the CIA, the US intelligence organizations had established links with drug dealers and traffickers. The CIA gave rise to the global drug trade to fight against communism. During that time, the US was twice engaged against the Soviets in covert wars, in Vietnam in the 1960s and Afghanistan in the 1980s. These two regions known as the Golden Triangle and Golden Crescent are the primary opiate dens supplying drugs the world over. The US congressional archives and historic records have a plethora of information and evidence about the complicity and involvement in illicit drug trade. A Tangled Web: A History of CIA Complicity in Drug International Trafficking, by Congressman John Conyers, is one such document which reveals the dark side of the American intelligence setup with its ties to the global drug mafia.
1. The US and the Drug ops

After becoming one of the two global superpowers, the US perceived communism as the biggest threat to its hegemony. According to congressional archives, after WWII, the US premier intelligence agencies The Office of Strategic Services (OSS) and the Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI), the CIA's parent and sister organizations established links with the Italian Mafia bosses in Sicily, recruiting heavily from the New York and Chicago underworld, whose members, including Charles 'Lucky' Luciano, Meyer Lansky, Joe Adonis, and Frank Costello, helped the agencies keep in touch with the Sicilian Mafia leaders, exiled by the Italian dictator Benito Mussolini. Domestically, the aim was to prevent the sabotage of East Coast ports by allowing illicit drug and weapons trade on these ports, while in Italy it was the Italian Communist Party whose destruction was set as a goal to be achieved through mafia links. Convicted criminal and drug dealer, Luciano was pardoned and then deported to Italy, where he proceeded to build his heroin empire, by diverting supplies from the legal market and developing connections in Lebanon and Turkey that supplied morphine based drugs to labs in Sicily. Furthermore, it has been confirmed by same documents that the OSS and ONI worked closely with the Chinese gangsters as well who at that time used to control the vast supply lines of opium, morphine and heroin, helping to establish the third pillar of the post-world War II heroin trade in the Golden Triangle, the border region of Thailand, Burma, Laos and China's Yunnan Province.
2. CIA and the Drug Mafia

After coming into existence in 1947, the CIA took over the anti-communist drive around the world as well as the illicit drug trade to finance and support the CIA covert ops during the entire Cold War era. Though Communism was defeated in 1988 but the lucrative trade and the CIAs patronage of global heroin syndicate is still around and flourishing. The agency, through its operatives and political connections in Italy, helped the Mafia to establish total control in Sicily. Marseille (France) became the next hub of the Mafia and it sends money to the heroin-smuggling Corsican mobsters in Marseille to assist in their battle with the Communist unions for control of the city's docks. Within just 4 years, by 1951, the CIA backed drug network became so strong in France that it gave rise to the notorious Marseille heroin industry also known as the 'French Connection', which dominated the world heroin trade until the early 1970s when it was eventually destroyed by the French authorities in 1972. President Richard Nixon inadvertently created a new market for the South Asian heroin producers by declaring a war
on drugs in Europe. The destruction of the French Connection paradoxically helped the global drug mafia to strengthen itself in drug trafficking across the five continents. Apart from Europe, the CIA also introduced illicit drug trade in Asia. Following its successful strategy in Europe, the CIA recruited gangsters and mobsters in Japan as well to ensure that the country stays in the noncommunist world. This anti-communist drive gave birth to a strong Japanese drug syndicate. Several years later, the Japanese Yakuza emerged as a major source of methamphetamine in Hawaii. Surely, the Americans were about to get a taste of their own medicine. But this was just the beginning of the CIAs long and dirty drug wars, which not only harmed its enemies but later on also exposed her own citizens to the curse of drugs.
3. The Golden Triangle:

Communism was expanding its political and military footprint in Southeast Asia during the 1950s and 1960s. For the US this expansion was worrisome as the previously addicted Chinese generation was breaking its habit of opium smoking. In the presence of communist Soviet Union, reawakening of another communist nation was indeed not a very pleasant scenario for the US. In this backdrop, the CIA devised a native strategy in order to forge alliances with tribes and warlords in the opium cultivating areas, which consist of a wide expanse of mountainous areas shared by Vietnam, Laos, Thailand and Burma. This region is known as the Golden Triangle and it shares its border with communist China. Today, the Golden Triangle comprises of 950,000 km2 of landmass, more than the entire volume of Pakistan. Though not the entire area is under cultivation for producing opium but it has remained the largest opium-producing region in the world since 1920 to 2001, later Afghanistan became the largest opium producing country after the US invasion.
Golden Triangle and Golden Crescent, CIAs hidden treasure troves
The CIAs first covert war against communism began with their funding of the nationalist Kuomintang (KMT) party against the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). It created a conflict within China after Japan had surrendered to the Chinese nationalist forces, under Chiang Kai-Sheks KMT in 1945. Chinese communists were enraged by the nationalist leaders decision to let the Japanese keep control of the mainland until the KMT regime could equip itself properly to take complete control. This sparked a civil war in China and led to the end of the KMT regime in 1949. It provided the CIA with an opportunity to support the nationalist KMT against Chinas Communist Party (CCP). The Soviets were supporting the communist party which pushed the KMT to Taiwan where it formed Republic of China (ROC) while in the mainland CCP, under the leadership
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of Mao, took control of the country. KMT expanded its footprint in Eastern Burma as well during that time. KMT was about to be crushed in Burma as well by the Burmese army when the CIA entered into the game and dramatically changed the complexion of the war. The CIA got access to the Southeast Chinese border regions and the protection of its assets by the warlords in that region. In return, the CIA and French secret service provided these warlords and opium producers with ammunition and air transport for the sale and trade of opium. It is ironic but not unfathomable that the immediate victim of CIAs drug trade was the United States herself. Soon, an explosion in the availability of illegal drugs was witnessed on the streets in various states of America. KMT used areas under its control in Burma to produce opium and the CIA established its frontal business through Air America, by purchasing Commercial Air Transport (CAT), in order to help KMT smuggle opium from China and Burma to Bangkok, from where it was exported to international markets. Mules were replaced with the latest cargo planes of the time. Air America planes used to carry weapons and arms for the KMT troops and on their return they used to pick opium from Burma to be delivered in Bangkok. The CIA promoted KMTs relations with Gen. Phao Siyanan in Thailand, who himself was a CIA client in the drug trade. This provided KMT with a rear area to launch its war against mainland China. KMT was pushed out of Burma in 1961 but opium cultivation continued and KMT warlords expanded their footprint in Laos and Thailand. This resulted in the expansion of opium cultivation as well. By 1973, the KMT warlords were controlling one third of the global heroin trade. Air America played a key role in the Vietnam war as well. The US military personnel were transferred to the airline in order to fly military cargo planes with civilian markings on them. By 1970, the airline had expanded its operations in Burma, Cambodia, Thailand and Laos. Weapons, military personnel and drugs were the main cargo transported through Air America during the war. During the Vietnam War, Air America used its planes to smuggle opium and heroin into the US via Hawaii
US supply helicopters during Vietnam War A continent drug transportation mean
An interesting fact to note here is that the CIA never got involved in the heroin trade directly but rather facilitated its allied drug lords with transportation, weapons, political protection and money laundering services. The US military and the CIA left Vietnam when the Thieu regime collapsed and Saigon fell to North Vietnamese forces in April 1975. Many US military personnel were directly involved in drug trafficking during the Vietnam War and were convicted by the US Department of Justice but at that time they were fighting against the evil of communism and for the protection of democracy, so no one really cared!
Unmarked CIA planes played a key role in drug trafficking in Golden Triangle
The CIAs involvement in the Korean War, Chinese Civil War and Vietnam War were part of the US plan to stop the southward expansion of communism in Asia. This plan was devised at the end of 1949 after the communist China announced its independence. The US left the region without any gain but the monster created by the CIA in the form of drug syndicate in the Golden Triangle is still around and haunting the world. The Golden Triangle is still the worlds second largest opium producing region after Afghanistan, where despite many anti-opium cultivation campaigns, the production of opium and export of opiates is on the rise. In 2007, an increase of 27% in the opium cultivation area was witnessed. This increase has undermined all the previous opium eradication efforts in the region.
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from Laos. Former Air America pilots have now confessed to this smuggling. Most of the time, ammunition boxes in C-47s and C-130s were used for drug transportation. Former USAF intelligence operative, Terry Reed confessed to this transportation. This trade later on haunted not only the US citizens but also the US forces deployed in Vietnam, who became the victims the of heroin epidemic. Vietnam-based GIs became the most lucrative market for the morphine and opium traffickers. By 1971, the situation had become so delicate that Pentagon had to order special tests for every GI leaving Vietnam and returning home.

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4. Central America
In Asia, the demand for heroin is more than any other drug but this is not the case world over. Cocaine is the favourite drug, which is consumed the most in the Americas. Cocaine was nothing new in the South American countries but it was only during the Nicaraguan Contra movement against the then dictator when its trade gained momentum. It was again the CIAs regime change operation to bring democracy in Nicaragua. An unprecedented surge in cocaine trafficking in the region was witnessed in 1980. This was later investigated by none other than the CIA Inspector General, Frederick Hitz himself. It is amazing that not only was the CIA aiding these cocaine traffickers and money-launderers but Ronald Reagons National Security Council also turned a blind eye to these drug traders despite the fact that these very drug traffickers also brought cocaine to the mainland US. According to the CIA Inspector Generals report, published in the online magazine The Consortium, Oct. 15th, 1998, it was Reagans National Security Council, which cleared the proven drug traffickers and the NSCs covert airline was the main means of transportation used for this trade in the safest possible way. The most stunning aspects regarding the Contra Movement and the CIA involvement are the methods these movements used to dismantle the then Nicaraguan government, including bombing and killing of civilians. The CIA withheld all the evidence of Contra crimes from the Justice Department, the Congress and even from its own Analytical Division in order to conceal its connection with the drug traffickers. Findings about these operations in Nicaragua were released only in 1989, the Senate Subcommittee on Terrorism, Narcotics, and International Operations (also known as the Kerry committee) concluded a three-year investigation by stating:
"There was substantial evidence of drug smuggling through the war zones on the part of individual Contras, Contra suppliers, Contra pilots, mercenaries who worked with the Contras, and Contra supporters throughout the region.... U.S. officials involved in Central America failed to address the drug issue for fear of jeopardizing the war efforts against Nicaragua.... In each case, one or another agency of the U.S. government had information regarding the involvement either while it was occurring, or immediately thereafter.... Senior U.S. policy makers were not immune to the idea that drug money was a perfect solution to the Contras' funding problems."
Later on, Senetor John F. Kerry revealed the involvement of US personnel and the CIA in the following words:
"The Subcommittee found that the Contra drug links included: Involvement in narcotics trafficking by individuals associated with the Contra movement. Participation of narcotics traffickers in Contra supply operations through business relationships with Contra organizations.
Provision of assistance to the Contras by narcotics traffickers, including cash, weapons, planes, pilots, air supply services and other materials, on a voluntary basis by the traffickers. Payments to drug traffickers by the U.S. State Department of funds authorized by the Congress for humanitarian assistance to the Contras, in some cases after the traffickers had been indicted by federal law enforcement agencies on drug charges, in others while traffickers were under active investigation by these same agencies." 5. The Golden Crescent
Afghanistan and Pakistan emerged on the US foreign and military policy horizon in late 1979 when the Soviets invaded Afghanistan. At that point in history, Central Asian opium trade was a self-contained phenomenon with no foreign export of opiates. But this trend changed dramatically when the communist Soviet Union started its expansion towards the Arabian Sea.
In 1980, the US administration under President Carter, devised a plan to stop the Soviet onslaught. Pakistan at that time was already helping the Afghan resistance against the Soviets. Pakistans decision was more in line with its own security concerns due to the threat that once the Soviets occupied Afghanistan, Pakistan would be their next target and India could easily take advantage of this potential scenario. The role of the CIA in the first Afghan war was not overt as it could provoke the Russians and lead to a more direct confrontation, similar to the Cuban missile crisis of the 1960s. Therefore it was more suitable for the CIA to have silent links with the Afghan warlords and provide them with sources to grow poppy. At the end of the war, the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) reported:
US invasion turned Afghanistan into the worlds largest opium den
By the end of the Russian invasion in 1989 Afghanistan was the second largest opium production spot with 1350 Metric ton, after the notorious Golden Triangle including countries like Laos, Thailand, Burma and Vietnam, which was producing 2645
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Metric ton at that time leaving Latin America way behind with just 112 Metric ton.
In 1994 unrest and lawlessness in Afghanistan gave rise to the Taliban. Motivated by their strict religious background and education they put a ban on all kinds of drugs in the territory under their control but this was not the cure for the chronically infected Afghan economy and society. Non-availability of any job market and a stronghold of the Northern Alliance over the northern part of the country remained the biggest challenge to the efforts of cutting down poppy cultivation in Afghanistan. But despite all the challenges the Taliban were able to put a serious cut on opium production in Afghanistan by 2001. But the post 9/11 scenario not only changed the political dynamics of the whole world, but also destroyed Talibans efforts to eradicate the opium production in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is leading the opium production in the world today and after the US invasion in 2002, Afghanistan has also become the worlds largest heroin producer as well. Without active support from the Pentagon and the CIA it is not possible for Afghanistan to export drugs prepared with more than 8000 metric tons of opium. The US relations with the corrupt Afghan government in Afghanistan have given a free hand to the drug producers and traffickers. The CIA and Pentagon both have their links with these criminals in order to export the drugs in US Army planes. It has been reported that the CIA used US Army planes leaving Afghanistan carrying coffins containing drugs instead of dead bodies. To ensure an undisturbed drug trade, the US had all the Northern Alliance drug lords appointed at key posts in Afghanistan and the most prominent appointment was none other than that of President Hamid Karzai. Karzais brother, head of Kandahar Provincial Council is a proven drug trafficker facilitating the transportation of heroin from Kandahar eastward through Helmand and out across the Iranian border.
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In the year 2001, just before the US/NATO invasion of Afghanistan, the Taliban were able to cut down the opium production by a decisive margin.
There is no reason to believe that the CIA is not aware of this but as it is all one big enterprise in which Karzai is also a partner, so naturally there is no danger to his brother.
The Taliban have been blamed for using drug money to fight the NATO and US forces. On the contrary, it was the Taliban who banned poppy cultivation during their reign in Kabul. Afghanistan was suffering the worst economic crisis at that time but the Taliban never built their economy on opiates trade. Now it is just ridiculous to blame the Taliban for having vast fields of poppy with enough peace and time to grow and process it into heroin and then trade it in Pakistan and Iran in order to transport it to destinations in Eastern Europe. It was only after the US invasion of Afghanistan that there was a 4400% increase in opium production. American role in the Afghan social debacle will go Ahmed Wali Karzai, appointed by his brother, Presidown in history as described in The Huffington Post, dent Hamid Karzai, to represent Kandahar province in Kabul. He is the main player in exporting heroin and on October 15, 2008:
opium to European countries through Turkmenistan.
When the history of US involvement in Afghanistan is written, Washingtons sordid involvement in the heroin trade and its alliance with drug lords and war criminals of the Afghan Communist Party will be one of the most shameful chapters.
The UN Drug report 2010, maintains the following about the poppy cultivation trend in Afghanistan:
Data on illicit opiates supply, arguably the most problematic drug category and always a core preoccupation of the international drug control regime, show that global opium production increased by close to 80% between 1998 and 2009. Increases in Afghanistan more than offset remarkable declines in South-East Asia during that period. There were encouraging declines in the last three years, but Afghan production was still more than 150% higher in 2009 than in 1998. With strong increases after 2005, production seems to have well exceeded world demand and led to the creation of large stockpiles, but it is clear that the global opiate market has not been eliminated, or significantly reduced, since 1998.
According to the same report Afghanistan's opium production dropped by nearly half from 2009 levels but this decrease was not the result of any campaign by the US/NATO for the poppy eradication rather spread of a disease in opium filed of Kahdahar and Helmand was the primary reason for this drop of cultivation.
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The Bush administration pushed the poppy cultivation to the next level in Afghanistan in order to keep Wall Street alive during the crisis in 2007. Many top Bush administration officials were worried about the growing influence of countries in the Golden Triangle (Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, Burma) in the Russian and Chinese drug markets. Just like oil in Iraq, this was just another opportunity for the Bush administration to get their hands on some quick bucks.
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A very interesting aspect of this opium boom in Afghanistan, under the very nose of the CIA, is the propaganda being waged against the Taliban and the Afghan resistance for using opium sales for purchasing weapons. This is perhaps the most ridiculous claim by the same media that considers Taliban as religious fanatics but often forgets that it was only in the era of these religious fanatics when a sharp decline in opium cultivation was recorded in Afghanistan. This fact has been accepted by the UNODC as well in its reports. Unraveling the links between drug trafficking and wars, Gordon Duff wrote the following, which explains and summarizes why a war is necessary to cover up illicit drug trade:
Narcotics provide cover for the war by making the US claims of opium eradication ing it impossible for Afghanistan to ever have a stable government. Drug lords are never going to become responsible tribal leaders. However, they also cant fly tons of heroin around the world nor can they bank billions of dollars. They need help. This is what the war supplies, thousands of experts have flooded into the region to train Afghanis to live as free people in a democratic society. Many of these outsiders, some from India, some from Israel traveling under false passports and hired as US contractors, many Americans with security contracting companies and, perhaps government agencies themselves, are involved. Why we are keeping quiet is the fact that so much money is flowing out of the region into so many pockets, journalists included, that nothing is reported, nothing is done and training and arming terrorists has become an integral part of maintaining the war. If the war ends, the Taliban might take over and end drug trafficking like they did before!
There exists a clear friction between the US and NATO on war against drugs in Afghanistan where the coalition is spending US$ 1 billion per year in campaigns against the poppy harvest. But due to massive embezzlement and corruption in the Afghan government, its all going to waste. The US war on drugs just like her military campaigns, has proved to be a failure on every axis due to the fact that the CIA is backing large drug trafficking cartels in order to generate finances for its protracted wars and covert ops.
US troops in the opium fields bely-
Global Drug Markets

According to the latest statistics released by UNODC, of the estimated 380 mt of heroin produced in Afghanistan, approximately 5 mt stays in the country for local consumption or is seized by the local law enforcement agencies. The remaining 375 mt is exported to the world via routes flowing into and through the neighbor-
1. West Europe, the largest heroin market
Asia, North America and Oceania. In addition to heroin, Afghanistan also exports some 1,000 mt of opium annually to its immediate neighbours (the Islamic Republic of Iran, Pakistan and Central Asia) and further to a global market of some 4 million opium consumers - most of which are in Asia. With the exception of South and Central America, Afghan opiates are now trafficked and sold in virtually every corner of the globe.
The worlds largest heroin market is West Europe, and about half of this market is contained in just three countries: the United Kingdom, Italy and France. The harms associated with usage of heroin seem to be increasing, as reflected in heroin-induced deaths. The French police destroyed the Marseille heroin industry in 1972. The French authorities seized 5 laboratories during the first 7 months of that year. But this success at home increased the demand of imported (smuggled) heroin in that country turning it into one of the most lucrative markets for the international drug mafia. Now there exist multiple routes for drug trafficking from Afghanistan to the European markets.
2. The Russian Federation, second largest heroin market

Some 25% of all Afghan heroin (95 mt) is trafficked each year from Afghanistan into Central Asia to meet a demand of some 70 mt in the Russian Federation along the Northern Route. The number of opiate users in
Worldwide consumption of the Opiates
CIAs Drug War 38
ing countries of Pakistan (150 mt), the Islamic Republic of Iran (105 mt) and the Central Asian countries of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan (95 mt) towards their final destinations in Europe, the Russian Federation and Asia. About a third of the heroin produced in Afghanistan travels to Europe (110 mt) while a quarter goes north to Central Asia and the Russian Federation. Afghan heroin is also increasingly meeting a rapidly growing share of Asian, mainly Chinese, demand. Approximately 15-20 mt is trafficked into China while another 35 mt to other South and South-East Asian countries. 31 to 35 mt shipped to Africa, while the remainder supplies markets in other parts of

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the Russian Federation is estimated to be between 1.6 and 1.8 Million people. To exit Afghanistan, on the way to the Russian Federation, traffickers can choose between three countries: Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Most of the flow appears to proceed through Tajikistan to Osh in Kyrgyzstan, before transiting Kazakhstan to the Russian Federation. Trafficking is conducted mostly in private and commercial vehicles, often in relatively small amounts.
3. Drug Trade Corridors of the Golden Crescent

According to the World Drug Report 2010 released by UNODC (United Nation Office on Drugs and Crime) there are three main drug trade corridors connecting the Golden Crescent to global opiates markets. These are: Northern route from Afghanistan to the Russian Federation. The Balkan route from Afghanistan to West and Central Europe. The Southern route from Afghanistan via Pakistan to the world. The Balkan route is the most active as it leads to the worlds largest drug market in Europe. The region comprising of Pakistan, Iran and Turkey is exposed to this peril directly. All these countries are fighting against the menace of drug trafficking but the sheer volume of drugs and covert links with international mafia make it impossible to seize all the drugs being transported across the continents. UNODCs latest report confirms that Pakistan, Iran and Turkey are on the forefront in the fight against drug trafficking. In this regard the report states:
The global increase in heroin seizures over the 2006- 2008 period was driven mainly by continued burgeoning seizures in the Islamic Republic of Iran and Turkey. In 2008, these two countries accounted for more than half of global heroin seizures, and registered, for the third consecutive year, the highest and second highest seizures worldwide, respectively.
Some 150 million tons (40%) of Afghan heroin/morphine is trafficked to or through Pakistan, particularly via Baluchistan province and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, with both sharing long borders with Afghanistan. While some of the drugs are consumed or seized in Pakistan, most are trafficked to other countries. Major destinations for heroin trafficked through Pakistan include the Islamic Republic of Iran, various countries in Central Asia , Africa and the United Arab Emirates . Pakistani traffickers also operate through numerous air (and sea) trafficking routes to Europe, mostly to the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, shipping an estimated 5 mt annually via their direct connections. Countries like Pakistan are paying a very high price for US/CIA drug trade, as there is a constant increase in drug addiction in Pakistan. Iran is another country which happens to be in the route of the international drug traffickers so it is also facing the problem of heroin and morphine being smuggled from Afghanistan and Pakistan to Turkey and Europe.
Intercontinental drug trade routes emerging from the CIA controlled Golden Crescent drug trade.
The effects of this trade are not limited to drug usage but it destroys the social fabric and gives rise to street crimes in order to get some cash to buy drugs from the street market. A more horrible outcome is the spread of HIV/AIDS and Hepatitis C viruses among addicted persons when they share infected needles and syringes. This threat is increasing with each passing day as the number of HIV positive patients is increasing. According to UNODCs annual report of 2010, 60-70% HIV cases in Russia are linked with drug injecting habits. Another disastrous effect that this trade has brought to Pakistan and other neighboring countries is the serious law and order situation in each countrys bordering area with Afghanistan. Combating this evil trade is not possible until a holistic effort is made by the international community in this regard, but the chances are bleak as this trade is needed by global imperialism now more than ever before, in order to give some support to their dying economies.
Drug injecting syringes the most lethal contributor to rise of HIV/AIDS
Economy of Drug Trade

Understanding the economy of the drug trade is a fundamental imperative to gauge the attraction associated with it for the governments and the financial institutes. As mentioned in the beginning, almost all the Western colonial powers used the drug trade for supporting their economies and expanding their empires and fighting
CIAs Drug War 40

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wars with each other over certain colonies. The British fought with the Portuguese and the French for India. Supporting wars through drug trade is as old as the trade itself. During the 1880s, the British used to get 56% of their total revenue from opium trade from their Malayan strait settlements and by 1904 this revenue had reached 59%. Evidently, rather than massive industrialization, the opium trade proved to be the largest financial source for the British Empire. In modern times, only the origin of control has changed, the trend, pattern and the trade, remain essentially the same rather each dimension of this trade has become even more systematic. The British have been replaced by the Americans. East India Companys role has been assumed by the CIA. Not only the income from the illicit drug trade, but the expenditure for sustaining this trade and carrying out clandestine ops have also increased. Now the financial transactions have become manifold of what they used to be in the earlier drug wars and thats why now the global banking system has been involved in this illicit business as well. For wholesale purchases, payments are made through banks. These banks not only provide money-laundering services for the dealers but in many cases also reap the benefits from this business. The drug trade is not only financing the CIA covert wars, there are also other deficiencies, which are compensated for with this money, like the financial institutes and banks facing the current financial crisis. UNODC Executive Director Antonio Maria Costa, based in Vienna has revealed that drug money often became the only available capital when the crisis spiraled out of control in 2008. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime had found evidence that Interbank loans were funded by the money that originated from drug trade and other illegal activities, Costa was quoted as saying. There were signs that some banks were rescued in that way. Nugan Hand Ltd. was founded in Sydney in 1973. The banks founding members, Frank Nugan from Australia and Michael Jon Hand had links with the international mafia and the CIA. Micheal Jon Hand had served in the US military during the Vietnam War and was appointed by the CIA as an instructor to train Hmong guerillas in Northern Laos under the CIA aegis. The bank was involved in tax fraud, money-laundering and drug money.
Frank Nugan, Micheal Hand meeting CIAs Paul Helliwell
The Nugan Hand Bank attracted investors with promises of up to 16% interest rates on their deposits and assurances of anonymity, tax-free accounts, specialist investment assistance, along with more surreptitious services such as money-laundering on a nominal fee. It is noticeable that the bank was joined by many retired, senior US military and intelligence personnel, including the CIA head, William Colby.
Solutions
Defining solutions for drug eradication is not an easy enterprise in current geo-political milieu. Pakistan is already on a head on collision course with CIA over their covert war inside Pakistan through drone strikes and tacit support to TTP insurgents against Pakistani State and the army. Drugs are another cause which would pitch Pakistani law enforcement forces against the global drug mafia, private mercenaries and rogue western State secret services. It cannot get more deadly or dirty than it already is. Presence of the CIA and the foreign forces in the region is part of the problem of the drug war and the illicit trade in the region. As long as the extra regional forces exist in this theatre, no reliable solution of drug trafficking problem can be found in the Golden Crescent. The reliance of the US military on drug lords sitting in the Afghan government is one of the major hurdles in opium eradication from Afghanistan. Other factors include the presence of private western mercenary forces like DynaCorp and Xe in Pak-Afghan border region and their direct links with opium dealers and terrorist insurgent groups. It is now even getting more important that Pakistan takes daring initiative to take charge of the Afghan imbroglio. Foreign forces must leave Afghanistan. Taliban had successfully brought down the drug supply and production during their tenure. They can do that again if given a political clout and authority in the regions of their influence. For the global peace and eradication of drugs, Afghan Taliban are natural allies not a threat.
CIAs Drug War 42

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Pakistan will have to enforce its anti-drug laws harshly and swiftly. In Iran, it takes just a few weeks to try and hang a drug trafficker. In Saudi Arabia, similar beheading treatment is given to the drug mafia members. China also executes drug traffickers mercilessly. But unfortunately, in Pakistan, it is not considered a serious crime hence there is no question of severe punishment. On this axis also, army act will have to invoke and enforced to treat the drug smugglers at par with the insurgent and terrorist forces as drug money is the most critical funding line of the anti-Pakistan insurgents and their sponsors. Pakistan will also have to restructure its Anti-Narcotics Force (ANF). Right now this force is only professional watchdog in Pakistan keeping a close eye on drug trafficking across the entire swath of Durand Line. Its current strength of 1500 personnel must be increased and it must be equipped adequately to discharge its duties. It is a critical axis because Pakistan-Iran-Turkey corridor is the busiest one used for international illicit drug trade. A joint anti-narcotics drive with Iran and Turkey can enhance the anti-drug ops of ANF. The bottom line is Drug cartels should also be treated as a serious threat at par with the insurgent, separatists and terrorist groups. All judicial, political and military means should be brought about to eliminate this threat on war footings. The drug mafias are providing the resources to anti-Pakistan forces against the state and people of Pakistan and should be dealt with without mercy through military courts. The terrorists must be terrorized by all means and forces available. That is the only language they understand. *************************
NOTE: This article was originally published in Brasstacks Monthly Security Review (Jan 2011) Vol. 1 No. 8
4 Battleground Afghanistan
Pakistan and the Future Dynamics of the US War on Terror
Zaid hamid , Shahzad Masood Roomi
Asia is a body built of clay and water Afghanistan is the heart in this body! If Afghanistan is in turmoil, the whole of Asia would be in Turmoil If Afghanistan is in peace, the whole of Asia would be in peace. Paradox within a Paradox
Allama Iqbal
The above stunning, almost prophetic, geo-political vision of Iqbal is starkly visible today as the entire region, especially Pakistan is faced with an existential threat from the Afghan theatre. While the rapid and violent reshaping of the Muslim Middle East is being orchestrated by the Neo-Cons in the mainland Arab world, the occupation of Afghanistan by the western forces is directly threatening the Muslim heartland in West Asia, greater Khurasan and the Central Asian regions.
The new world war for 21st century began in Afghanistan!
Despite facing a massive high intensity, decentralized, imposed asymmetric 4th generation war within its own borders, Pakistans Afghan policy remains fatally confused, disoriented and without any strategic vision. This strategic confusion within the political government has created an unprecedented threat environment in which the differentiation between friend and foe has been deliberately confused through an orchestrated information war and psy-ops by the extra regional forces. The irony is overwhelmingly stark, the contradictions paradoxical: Pakistan army is fighting a bloody and ruthless insurgency backed by the US/NATO/India, simultaneously Pakistan is also an ally of the western forces. Pakistan had agreed to help the US in the war against Afghan Taliban and Al-Qaeda inside Afghanistan but the US has pushed the war inside Pakistan under the Af-Pak doctrine. Weapons, explosives and supplies to the insurgents against Pakistan are being provided by the western forces from Afghanistan, while their own supply lines pass through Pakistan which also carry the logistics for the insurgencies. Afghan Taliban and other resistance groups are fighting a war against the foreign occupation forces but are not considered allies by Pakistan. Karzai regime is a hostile enemy government but treated as an ally by Islamabad. TTP is an insurgent group fighting against Pakistan but the US insists that Pakistan should only fight the Afghan resistance instead. Afghan resistance does not fight Pakistan and considers the TTP as a terrorist asset but does not fight the TTP as Pakistan does not recognize the Afghan resistance. Drones kill more pro-Pakistan Afghan resistance and Pakistani tribal civilians than terrorists, causing serious damage to Pakistans interests but still Islamabad allows the attacks as a matter of policy. The ISI and CIA are supposed to be allies but CIA is working systematically to decapitate the premier Pakistani secret service and a violent war rages between the two spy agencies under the faade of cooperation! India wages a ruthless war, supporting multiple insurgencies in FATA and Baluchistan through Afghanistan but Pakistan continues to engage India in peace process. India also continues to block Pakistani waters and also supports urban terrorists of MQM and ANP in Karachi. Under this most bizarre, complex, dangerous and confused geopolitical threat scenario, Pakistan is led by the most corrupt, compromised and dysfunctional regime in its history, further creating a leadership crisis in times of war. In the last 4 years of this regime, not a single debate has been initiated on the Afghan policy which addresses the above core issues. The policies of the Musharraf era are being pursued, which had brought this brutal war upon Pakistan in the first place. Still, the leadership cannot decide how to extricate Pakistan from
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Af-Pak reaches Pakistan -- The urban war in Pakistani cities
A decisive solution to the Afghan crisis has to be found NOW! As the crisis has almost metastasized beyond control, the treatment would also be radical, harsh, and even ruthless but for the sake of regional peace and national security, it will have to be deployed with cut throat lethality. Three critical factors must be understood clearly before any analysis and solution of the Afghan crisis is given: The Extra Regional forces are part of the problem and NOT the solution of it. There can be no peace as long as the foreign forces are occupying Afghanistan. The solution to the Afghan crisis does not lie within the Afghan theatre of war but within the region in the hands of the countries surrounding the Afghan theatre. The US and NATO do not have the military and economic capability to open any other high intensity, Iraq-styled theatre of war against Pakistan. Pakistan controls the jugular of the extra regional forces!
The Geo-Politics
Almost 18 months ago, at West Point Military Academy, US president Barack Obama stated, It must be clear that Afghans will have to take responsibility for their security, and that America has no interest in fighting an endless war in Afghanistan. Obama seemed to be stating that the US really wanted to bring this 10 year long vindictive WoT to an end and wanted to leave handing over the fate of the country to its indigenous owners. But what came along with this
Battleground Afghanistan 46
this war despite over 50,000 dead and wounded, both from the armed forces and the civil society, in the last 4 years alone. The entire country has been turned into a battle ground but still the regime does not plan any policy analysis on the Afghan theatre and the threats emerging from it. The strategic blindness of the leadership has created an existential threat environment for the state and the nation.

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announcement was a more aggressive doctrine of Af-Pak which not only has devastated Afghanistan but has also pushed the war deeper into Pakistan. During his address, president Obama also announced a surge of 33,000 more troops for Afghanistan.
NeoCons plan to re-shape the greater Middle East including Pakistan!
Although, US has announced a limited withdrawal of its forces from Afghanistan, but what does this withdrawal actually mean in the long term regional security perspective? What were the stated goals of the US war in Afghanistan? How far was the Af-Pak doctrine successful in achieving its stated goals? Where does the war stand after 10 years? And what are the future dynamics of this war from Pakistans security point of view? The search of objective answers to these questions invites us to dissect this decade long war in Afghanistan and examine it both at strategic and political vortexes along with its long term regional and global ramifications. To start with it is essential to understand that the stated US goals in the region are entirely different from her real objectives. The detailed comparison between the two is critical to understand and predict the future course of war on Pakistans western borders. Disrupting, dismantling and deteriorating the ability of Al-Qaeda and their allies (Taliban) to launch any further attack on US was stated as the primary mission objective by the US government after 9/11. But this stated aim was a mere smoke screen to veil the real long term strategic plans of the US for the region. The Grand strategic Objectives of the US for the 21st century are: 1. Defense and Security of Israel for which Pakistan must be de-nuclearized and dismembered and Iran must be prevented from becoming a nuclear power. 2. Control of global energy corridors, energy resources, pipelines and trade routes. 3. Containment of Political Islam as an ideology. 4. Control of global water ways and Oceans. 5. Containment of Russia.
All these unstated grand strategic objectives make it critical for the US and the Western powers to occupy, control and dominate Afghanistan and then to push the war into Pakistan for a Yugoslavia solution. Balkanization of Pakistan is a critical part of this entire scheme. The imposed 4th generation war along with its entire spectrum of threat axis on political, economic, media and military is designed to create this state failure in Pakistan to muster a global justification for securing Pakistans nuclear assets by an international coalition led by the UN or US.
Pipelineistan The geopolitics of oil, energy and resources in the central Asia!
In this new great game, Pakistan is also in the middle of what many analysts call Pipelineistan wars". Pepe Escobar from Asia Times writes, Pakistan is an energy-poor, desperate customer of the grid. Becoming an energy transit country is Pakistan's once-in-a-lifetime chance to transition from a near-failed state into an energy corridor to Asia and, why not, global markets. After nearly one and half years of Af-Pak announcement, it has become clear that the real purpose of this doctrine was not to stabilize Afghanistan but to destabilize the entire region by pushing the conflict into Pakistan. This doctrine is just a means for the US to meet its aforesaid strategic objectives particularly the one related to fixing Pakistan. Lately, there is a realization among Pakistans military establishment regarding the devastating impact of the Af-Pak. Pakistan army and intelligence apparatus have been pushed into an endless fight against a obscure and ruthless enemy who has been attacking Pakistan from Afghanistan since years now. On the other hand, the CIA and JSOC (Joint Special Operations Command) covert operators, under the diplomatic cover, are working to frame Pakistan in the next 9/11-like scenario. Consequently, not only the diplomatic relations between Islamabad and Washington are getting worse but also the intelligence ties between the ISI and CIA have hit rock bottom as well. What used to be termed as merely a conspiracy theory is now being proved as a real conspiracy! The US and NATO forces have also been paying a harsh price for this failed and flawed doctrine since the last two years. Official death toll of foreign occupying forces has risen to 2600 and the US forces have suffered
6. Containment of China.

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most of these fatalities. The fatalities within the private contractors of Blackwater and Xe Services are not included in these official figures. Also, the number of the wounded and mentally wrecked troops rendered unfit for military service is never given by the US and NATO army.
Another Vietnam in the making!
But all this is just the tip of the iceberg! All the major US forces operations in Southern and central Afghanistan have met with complete failure. The tactics of prolonged guerilla warfare employed by the resistance have out maneuvered the occupation forces in Afghanistan. The entire country, including Kabul, is under the threat or control of the Taliban and other resistance groups or criminal warlords. The Taliban are also in control of all critical routes as well. The situation is so desperate that in some provinces even the coalition forces are forced to pay the warlords and Taliban commanders for a safe passage of their supplies, almost to the tune of $400 million per year, flooding the resistance with cash to carry on the resistance! The American fatalities in Helmand province present an eye-opening account of how catastrophically the US operations have suffered there. During the first 7 years, till 2008, the total number of US troops killed in Helmand was 177, while in last two and half years, this number has gone up to 543; almost 3 times more casualties in 1/3rd of the time. The Americans had bet on the wrong horse in the political arena as well. Despite the acknowledgement of Karzais corruption by the US president in 2009, he is still enjoying the fake power in Kabul under the US umbrella as there is no other willing puppet available to the US to replace him; just another reason to make the Americans desperate for any kind of military achievement! During the recent weeks, there have been some critical changes which are reshaping the Afghan war environment. The Pak-US relations are in the woods on the entire axis as both the countries are desperate to protect their own interests. For Pakistan, a very challenging environment is in the making on the western theatre!
The Af-Pak Theatre Environment

1. In a desperate bid to push the war into Pakistan, the US and NATO are pushing hundreds of militants into Pakistan in regular cross border raids from the Kunar province. Fierce clashes are taking place in Mohmand and Bajaur regions of the tribal areas. The militants are supplied with massive ammuni-
tion, weapons and logistics from the Afghan side. NATO has removed their own security posts from the region to the west side of Kunar River and has allowed free movement to the militants to carry out raids into Pakistan. The Pakistan army has captured truck loads of millions of rounds of brand new ammunition of AK-47, 12.7mm, 14.5mm, 82mm Mortars, 75mm recoilless rifles and RPG-7s. The massive supply line of TTP insurgency runs uninterrupted from the Afghan side, fully backed by the CIA/ RAW/RAMA. Pakistan continues to fight a high intensity war within its own borders across the entire region in FATA. Pakistan army has not yet crossed the border into Afghanistan in hot pursuit of the militants. Artillery fire has been sent across the border occasionally but ironically often responded by the US and NATO forces against the Pakistani positions. The TTP militants continue to have safe havens on the Afghan side close to the Pakistani border, under the protection of US and NATO forces. No drone strike or fire has ever been brought upon the TTP positions by the US/NATO forces in Kunar or elsewhere. The treachery and betrayal of the US is most nauseatingly vivid in this theatre. 2. Pakistan has expelled some of the US military personnel from the country after the US Special forces made an incursion into Pakistan on May 2nd. In response, Washington has cut Pakistani military aid. This move has failed to serve its purpose and is going to backfire for the US. To add insult to injury, China has completely blown away the American psy-ops by openly coming forward and announcing all the required cooperation with Pakistan. The US is now re-considering its decision to cut military aid to the Pakistan army. 3. With the deteriorating Pak-US relations, the American desire of making Pakistan take the ownership of WoT is also frizzling out ignominiously. As Pakistan has decided to fight the war with its own resources, now the operational strategy will be Pakistans own as well. This is yet another challenge for the US as their entire exit strategy revolves around putting blame of their failure in Afghanistan on Pakistan. Now Obama administration is desperately trying to sell the idea that Pakistan has taken the ownership of WoT during the Pak-US strategic dialogue. The CIA is equally desperate to get its feet back in Pakistan. Their latest policy is to placate Pakistan by providing a little more information about the on ground CIA operators in Pakistan. Previously, these operators were working under diplomatic cover; a failed policy which created serious diplomatic and PR crisis for the US. 4. As the war continues to go wrong on all axes in the
JSOC terrorist caught CIA special operations to destabilize Pakistan
Af-Pak theatre, panic is rising in the ranks of the US decision makers. Mixed signals are being given by the Obama administration regarding the future plans in Afghanistan. Some circles are eying the 2014 as the final cut-off date while others are hinting about a longer delay. Right now, the US is not in the position to prolong the war anymore and thats why Pakistan is being framed as the core reason for the failure of WoT. Recent announcement of withdrawal is compulsion. NATO allies are also drawing down their troops. Canada and France have already announced the pull out.
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Troops withdrawal? Not really!
5. Within the US, the sinking economy is a serious concern for the Obama administration. Economic managers are asking for 25% cut in the US defense budget for the next year but two active wars, thousands of miles away from home, are demanding vast economic resources with no success on ground. 6. We cant simply lop off 25 percent off the defense budget overnight, President Obama said recently while replying to his economic advisors. We have to think about all the obligations we have to our troops who are in the field, and making sure theyre properly equipped and safe. According to Asia Society for Social Improvement and Sustainable Transformation, the US war spending can increase to more than $4
trillion. 7. Political measures taken by the US in Afghanistan are also in tatters. The US efforts to form a broad
based allied regime in Kabul have not paid any dividend so far as the Taliban have not abandoned their demand of complete and unconditional withdrawal of all foreign forces. Now the Americans are eyeing the Afghan National Army (ANA)s strength to help sustain an allied regime in Kabul but this plan is already a disaster. ANA has an on paper strength of nearly quarter of a million troops but in reality, their training as well as their loyalties remain suspect and unreliable. They have never been able to hold their ground against the Taliban without the support of the foreign forces. ANA ranks are heavily penetrated by the Taliban and there is reported pilferage of thousands of weapons and millions of rounds of ammunition from the force, mostly ending up in the hands of the Taliban. 8. The US military commanders are also completely confused over the situation. The disagreements between the military commanders and political leadership are in the open now. The firing of General McChrystal is a case to note. The US commanders have hinted at a condi- Afghan national army Incomtional withdrawal followed by the hope of a smooth transition whereas petent allies of the Americans! all the odds are against the allied forces in Afghanistan. According to General Rodriguez, ISAF commander since 2007, As we move forward with the plan, the transition will continue to be condition-based. He also said that he believes that the transition is on track, and that the coalition and Afghan forces can achieve the 2014 goal of complete Afghan security responsibility along with the planned US troop drawdown. 9. The propaganda about the intervention in Afghan areas from North Waziristan Agency (NWA) is an-
other psy-ops by the US. The US officials have been mounting pressure on the Pakistan army to launch a full scale military offensive in NWA to dismantle the Haqqani network and other groups with whom the Pakistan army had signed peace agreements in order to cut down their intervention in Afghanistan. But the statistics of the ISAF fatalities in Afghanistan point in a different direction. ISAF forces have suffered
more casualties in the Southern provinces of Afghanistan than in the North-Eastern provinces bordering Pakistans NWA region.
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Helmand and Kandahar border Baluchistan not NWA, still death toll there is more than the North Eastern province bordering NWA.
10. Afghanistan is an extremely complex country in its pure social and political incarnation. Creating a supportive government is the biggest challenge for the US and there is not even a remote chance of success in sight in this regard. Even the US forces commanders are well aware of the situation. The most critical task facing the coalition, according to Rodriguez is to support good Afghan leaders and encourage them to build depth within their ranks, and inspire other leaders to join in helping create a hopeful future. The tribal system of Afghanistan has its own complex dynamics and the ISAF forces have failed to understand them. The US wants to westernize the Afghan society through western political system but this move will always be faced with stiff resistance both physically and intellectually. The US objective to encircle China and Russia revolves around establishing a nuclear missile defense shield in Eastern Europe so that the US is able to intercept any ballistic missile on its way to the American coasts. There is clear friction between NATO and SCO on the US missile defense program as the deployment of this missile defense shield would be in a very close proximity of the Russian border. Under the Russian pressure, in 2009, President Barack Obama shelved a Bush administration proposal to station 10 missile interceptors in Poland and a radar facility in the Czech Republic. The Americans are now moving towards a newer plan of completing the task by deploying the system on the Aegis destroyers and cruisers. But still the US would require some installations in Romania and Poland which would again annoy the Russians. Six member states of the SCO have already expressed their concern over this ambitious American plan. It could harm the strategic stability and international security, they maintained after a collective stance on the issue. Now Russia and China have signed an alliance to oppose the US ballistic missile defense program BMD. For China this system can serve the US interest as a strategic model which, if successful in Europe, would be replicated anywhere in the world against the Chinese strategic weapons. This Chinese threat perception includes India as well.
SCO the counter balance to Extra regional forces in Asia!
11. The Iranians are also averse to the American presence in the region. The Iranian security situation has remained restive particularly in the Eastern provinces as the American trained and funded Jundullah carried out multiple suicide attacks in the region. Now Iran has openly warned Pakistan against the US intentions of harming Pakistans nuclear program. The CIA suffered a major setback when Pakistan and Iran joined hands against Jundullah and dismembered the organization. 12. India remains the only regional player who desperately wants the Americans to stay in Afghanistan. But this insistence is not for the WoT but to protect the Indian investment in Afghanistan through which RAW is waging multiple wars inside Pakistan. India has also established a well organized spy network in Afghanistan behind Pakistans back, working through the Indian trained Afghan secret service RAMA and the Karzai regime. The Indians are extremely nervous about the possibility of an American withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Pakistan and the Future dynamics of WoT

The fate of the Afghan war is in the hands of Pakistan. But at the moment, Pakistan stands on very thin ice due to the staggering strategic confusion which the leadership has towards this threat and the theatre of war. Pakistan does not have a single friend in Afghanistan today. The relations with the Americans are extremely tense and even hostile. The Karzai regime is the extension of Delhi as per hostility and betrayals. The Afghan Taliban and other resistance groups are not hostile towards Pakistan but are not willing to support or defend Pakistan at this stage. The TTP are based in Afghanistan and continue to use their US protected base areas to wage a war against the Pakistani state. NATO supplies continue to pass through Pakistan. Drone strikes also continue with impunity. CIA continues to run JSOC operations inside Pakistan penetrating all organs of the state, media and political parties. Only the ISI and the army are resisting the CIA as well as the TTP but their capacity to resist remains extremely incapacitated in the absence of organizational support from the government, judiciary and the media. This is not just a staggering policy failure but also reeks of betrayals within the highest levels of the government and society. Despite being in a state of urban decentralized war, the matter is not being treated as an existential

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crisis but as a local law and order issue to be dealt with local police officers and corrupt judiciary.
Pakistan destroyed USSR in Afghanistan. Todays US fate is also in Pakistans hands.
The pressure continues to rise on the Pakistan army as the TTP adopts even more aggressive and ruthless ways to wage their war against the state. Now the enemy combatants are attacking en masse from across the border and trying to control villages and territories within Pakistan. The recent surge of attacks in Dir and the military operations in Mohmad and Kurram regions are a manifestation of this newly deployed strategy.
Frequent cross border raids into Pakistani villages by TTP are backed by NATO/Afghan army!
The Pakistan army has to fight at two hostile fronts simultaneously: The Militants on ground are waging a high intensity war within the mainland. The CIA/US army, which are waging a covert war under the faade of alliance and military cooperation. The CIA/JSOC teams are actually running a parallel intelligence and covert operations network within Pakistan working on a collision course with the Pakistan army and ISI and undermining Pakistans
national security and nuclear program.
Hostile allies ? The CIA-ISI war rages on!
In the presence of a corrupt and compromised regime, hostile media and an incapacitated judiciary, the odds are heavily against the army and the ISI. The present reactive response strategy deployed by the army can only stabilize the situation temporarily and buy some more time for the State and delay the strategy of the enemies but it cannot win the war or change the strategic profile of the regional theatre. Pakistan will continue to take losses and the army and ISI would always be taking hits as the initiative of surprise would always remain with the urban insurgents.
Asking the Right Questions

In order to win this war, to crush the insurgencies within Pakistan and to stabilize Afghanistan in Pakistans favor, Pakistan will have to deploy an aggressive and comprehensive response strategy. Before we give our recommendations for such a response strategy, we would like to answer some fundamental questions which are always raised whenever the Afghan solution is discussed. These questions and their correct answers would form the basis of Pakistans response strategy towards this theatre of war. Question: Is it possible to have peaceful and stable Afghanistan in the presence of Extra Regional forces in that country? Answer: Impossible! Foreign forces are the root cause of the crisis and not the solution for it. The entire region and Pakistan is in a state of war because of foreign forces in Afghanistan. All strategies and options which are sincere and serious about peace in Afghanistan demand an immediate and unconditional withdrawal of all foreign forces. Question: Given the present political and economic conditions in the country, how can Pakistan negotiate favorable terms with the US and NATO and seek a withdrawal of ERF? Answer: Pakistan can make life difficult for the US and NATO at present but cannot negotiate decisively in the presence of this corrupt government in Islamabad. The regime in Islamabad is the reason for the states multiple organ failures and catastrophic debacles in this war. The regime change in Islamabad is as critical as

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fighting the insurgency and CIA on ground. Question: Even if Pakistan has a patriotic government in Islamabad, how can Pakistan force the exit of ERF from Afghanistan and bring about a favorable solution? Answer: The solution to the Afghan crisis lies not within Afghanistan but in the region. Pakistan will have to make a solid stand along with China, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey on the crisis. The US and NATO cannot resist such a regional, political and diplomatic alliance on Afghanistan. The Chinese and Iranian stand is identical to that of Pakistan. Saudi Arabia does not have its own Afghan policy and would support Islamabad under all circumstances for a broad based government in Afghanistan. The Russians can also be asked to join the regional group in order to evict the foreign forces. The question of Muslim peacekeeping forces can also be agreed upon within the regional Muslim countries. Pakistan can achieve this seemingly impossible diplomatic mission through aggressive diplomacy. Regional powers and the SCO group are countries that are not happy with the ERF presence in Afghanistan. Question: Can Pakistan use the NATO supplies as leverage in negotiations and even block them permanently? Answer: Sure Pakistan can. This is the most strategic stranglehold which Pakistan has on the NATOs jugular. NATO has not found any reliable alternate to its supplies from central Asia or Iran. The staggering cost of transportation from central Asia makes it a mission impossible. Almost 82% supplies and 65% fuel for NATO goes from Pakistan. A strong government in Islamabad can create enough diplomatic pressure, through the allies in the region, to use the NATO supplies as a leverage to demand a timeline and an exit plan of the ERF from Afghanistan. NATO supplies are also the biggest source of logistical support for the insurgencies against Pakistan. Thousands of lost containers inside Pakistan are delivered to insurgents and terrorist groups by NATO contractors. There are serious and critical reasons for Pakistan to block the NATO supplies.
Question: Can the US and NATO attack Pakistan if Islamabad blocks their supplies or becomes totally hostile on Afghanistan? Can we fight them?
Pakistans strategic leverage against US!
The US lifeline - If NATO supplies are blocked by Pakistan, US war effort in Afghanistan would collapse!
Question: What kind of a government can we have in Afghanistan? Should we bring back the Taliban? How would we assure peace in the country? What will be the fate of Northern alliance, Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras? Answer: All regional countries and Pakistan agree that there should be a broad based government in Afghanistan. The Taliban had made the strategic blunder of waging a war against all other non-Pashtun ethnic communities in the country. This catastrophic political blunder later invited Western forces into the country. Pakistan has strong influence over the Pashtun groups. Iran has influence over Tajiks and Hazaras. Turkey is also closer to Taliban as well as the Northern Alliance groups. These Muslim countries can bring the Afghans to a table and convince them to forge unity within their ranks. Once the foreign forces are out and the Muslim nations and regional countries take responsibility for rebuilding Afghanistan under a broad based and peaceful government, this seemingly impossible task would be achievable. The Afghan Taliban are more moderate now and seem to have learnt their lesson but they will not come to negotiations as long as ERF are present in the country. Even if there are difficulties in bringing Afghans together politically once the ERF are gone, still the war which is flowing into Pakistan and destabilizing the nation would stop. All base areas and support infrastructure of the TTP and insurgencies would be eliminated once the ERF and India are ousted from the country. Historically the post 1992 Afghan civil war tells us that even when the Afghans were fighting amongst themselves, they were not destabilizing Pakistan, Iran or the region. The Taliban era in Afghanistan was the most peaceful one from Pakistans perspective as there were no drugs, insurgencies or weapons flowing into
Answer: The US and NATO do not have the capacity, the will, the economic strength or the military muscle to attack Pakistan! The war is going horribly wrong for them in Afghanistan. Their domestic economies are crashing under the burden of major wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. They have opened new fronts in the Middle East. Their supplies pass through Pakistan. Almost 150,000 US, NATO soldiers and private contractors would starve to death or would be totally immobile sitting ducks without fuel within a week if their supplies are blocked from Pakistan in case of a war against Pakistan. They simply do not have the man power and reserve troops to wage another Iraq or Afghanistan or even Libya styled war against Pakistan. Pakistan can be harsh with them on all axes and control their jugular. This is not post 9/11 scenario. Now we can be harsh on them and we must.

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Pakistan from there. The presence of the ERF and Indians in Afghanistan has turned that country and the region into a cesspool of wars, drugs and insurgencies. The ERF and the Indians must be thrown out urgently by all possible means; the rest is manageable. Question: Should we not try to stabilize Pakistan first before we attempt to intervene and stabilize Afghanistan? Pakistan is fragmenting and is under attack. Can we afford to get involved in Afghanistan diplomatically, economically and even militarily? Answer: Pakistan is destabilized and under attack because Afghanistan is in turmoil. Afghanistan is in turmoil because there are ERF in that country. The solution lies in removing the ERF and getting involved with the help of regional friendly nations to bring peace in that country. Peace in Afghanistan will stop all support to insurgencies, terrorism and militancy in Afghanistan. Pakistan cannot be stabilized as long as terrorists have safe havens in Afghanistan and are backed by CIA/RAW. Question: If the Americans leave now, there would be instability in Afghanistan. Isnt it necessary that the Americans must stay in Afghanistan till the country is stabilized and only then they should exit? Answer: Afghanistan is destabilized because of the Americans and foreign forces in that country. The ERF can never stabilize the country as the experience of the last 10 years has proved. The war is going against the occupation forces and they must leave immediately in order to calm the resistance. The Taliban and Afghan resistance are willing to accept an international and Muslim mediation for peace talks and power sharing but their pre-condition remains that the foreign forces must leave Afghanistan first. The results of war so far prove that the foreign forces are part of the chaos and not the solution of it. Question: Can Pakistan army fight and defend the country alone against insurgencies and CIA under the present political, economic and media environment? Answer: Pakistan army and ISI can stabilize the situation temporarily and win many battles but cannot fight and win the war without diplomatic maneuvering, political support, media psy-ops or the regional support of the friendly nations. The war strategy presently deployed by the Pakistan army is reactive in nature not proactive or aggressive in order to take the war to the enemy. Pakistan has not even entered Afghanistan in hot pursuit of the terrorists nor cultivated any assets inside to neutralize the threat across the border. The presence of the US/NATO forces in Afghanistan, their operations inside Pakistan under Af-Pak and state organ failure in Pakistan, all are creating a state dysfunction rapidly within Pakistan. The situation is getting untenable by the day. The strategy of the CIA and JSOC is to create maximum state failure in Pakistan in the coming days before they are forced to leave the region. Their covert grand strategic objective was to create security crisis in Pakistan in order to justify the de-nuclearization of Pakistan. This is their most critical mission objective but they have not achieved it yet. In the coming days, more and more ruthless and high profile attacks would be launched against the ISI, Army, nuclear installations and the critical state infrastructure to achieve this objective of state failure. The US is desperate to achieve its covert objectives and would be very ruthless against the state of Pakistan and its armed forces in the coming days.
Pakistan army is defeating the insurgents but for final victory war must be fought inside Afghanistan now!
The final word of caution and advice

When the Geneva accord was signed in 1988 between the Pakistan government and the Kabul regime, the entire Afghan resistance was kept out of it and was abandoned. Despite having fought for 10 years and sacrificing over a million Afghans, the entire resistance was betrayed and left in the lurch. The result was a bloody civil war in Afghanistan for the next decade. The Geneva accord was a blunder of historic proportions which completely compromised Pakistans entire stakes and interests in Afghanistan. Despite supporting the resistance for 10 years, Pakistan could never have a friendly government in Kabul while Afghanistan remained in a catastrophic condition of state failure. It was only during the Taliban era, from 1996 to 2001, that Pakistan had some form of a friendly government in Afghanistan. There were no insurgencies in Pakistan during that period and the Taliban had ousted all Indian assets from the regions under their control. Now Pakistan must NOT repeat the blunder of the Geneva accord and the post Afghan war era. In future, the Americans and NATO would not be our allies but Pashtun resistance and people of Afghanistan would be. Our present allies would change but our neighbors are permanent. Pakistan must never forget this. Pakistan cannot abandon the Afghan resistance now under any form of exit plan of the foreign forces and must make sure that a friendly and cooperative government is placed in a stable Afghanistan. The Afghans themselves do not have the capacity to resolve their differences. They need help of friendly and Muslim nations from within the region. This is where Pakistan has to take the lead role. India is already planning a strategic role in Afghanistan. They are aggressive, pro-active and already present on ground. Pakistan must snatch Afghanistan from them. While Pakistan fights multiple insurgencies within its borders, it also has two mammoth challenges at hand now for which the entire strength of politics, diplomacy and military must be deployed with full force and wisdom:
Force the foreign forces to leave Afghanistan within the shortest possible time. Make sure that Afghanistan gets a stable friendly broad based government with peace in the country. Americans do not want to leave Afghanistan. They are simply buying time. Pakistan will have to force them to exit and also make sure that they do not leave a mess behind them. This is the real challenge. This is NOT post 9/11 scenario. The Americans have been defeated in Afghanistan. Their economy at home is in shambles. Their military humiliated and in no position to wage another war. Pakistan can now fully stand up to the Americans and ask Are you with us or against us? If they are with us, they will have to do what we tell them to do. Else, we must do with them what we did to the Soviets. We have done it before. We can do it again.
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With love from the graveyard of empires ! A US soldier walks past dead comrades! ************************* NOTE: This article was originally published in Brasstacks Monthly Security Review (Jul 2011) Vol. 2 No. 2
5 Missing Persons of Baluchistan

Looking Beyond the Obvious!
Baluchistan has been in the limelight, both in national and international media, since last many months due to whole range of different reasons. For international media, Baluchistan has become a burning issue due to alleged Taliban hideouts, mysterious Quetta Shura and the growing US interest in the province. For the local media, the prosecution of missing persons case by Supreme Court of Pakistan is the most significant issue in the province. War on Terror, the sudden US interest in human rights issues of Baluchistan and the missing persons case in Supreme Court of Pakistan; all are interconnected issues as the dynamics operating behind these issues are well amalgamated and have far reaching implications for national security. In a serious development, Supreme Court of Pakistan; in its interim order; has put the entire responsibility of the lawlessness and missing persons on FC and has directed the intelligence agencies to produce the missing persons in the court1. Supreme Court summoned IGFC Baluchistan to appear in front of the court to explain his inability to produce the missing persons. The Supreme Court ordered to speed up the recovery of 138 missing persons in the court2 which Supreme Court believes are held by agencies and FC. Meanwhile according to defence secretary, 93 people are missing and no one is in the custody of ISI or other agencies. For the security circles,this verdict by the Supreme Court was discomforting after the findings of a judicial commission, working under former Supreme Court judge Justice (r) Javed Iqbal, to investigate the missing persons issue. The commissions report revealed the involvement of foreign agencies in ensuing unrest in the Baluchistan province and showed proofs of their involvement. On missing persons case, the facts are dramatically opposite to what is being projected by the media.The number of missing persons in Baluchistsan, according to the commissions findings, is less than that of the other three provinces. Opposite to the propaganda, the commission established that only 460 persons are missing nationwide and according to breakup, concluded by the commission, 18 missing persons are listed missing from Islamabad, 117 from Punjab, 174 from Sindh, 170 from NWFP, 57 from Baluchistan and 12 each from Azad Kashmir and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata)3. Even without taking the findings of the judicial commission into consideration, the most fundamental question remains that why would Pakistans own army, FC or any agency,kidnap the peaceful and patriotic

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Baluch people? No government instituation, including Supreme Court knows the exact number of missing persons,which leads to another basic question that how the Supreme Court of Pakistan established the exact number of missing persons? And a related and equally critical question arises on the criteria of Supreme Court, as well, to declare a particular individual as missing. The quest to answer these queries leads us to analyze, along with other developments, the performence, efficiency and competancy of provincial and federal governments of PPP. The issue of missing persons would never get resolved by focusing on the apparent developments alone. Supreme Court will have to look beyond the obvious. There are multiple internal and external dynamics that have shaped-up current strife-ridden environment in Baluchistan and understanding these aspects would help us to analyze the possible implications of the interim order of the Supreme Court in overall national security perspective.
The Environment
1. Insurgencies: The province is in the grip of low level conflicts, linguistic violence and sabotage due
to foreign funded terrorist and separatist movements like BLA and BRA. These terrorists outfits have training and logistical bases in Afghanistan supported by Indian RAW and CIAs drug network. IGFC Baluchistan has also highlighted the role of foreign agencies in Baluchistan unrest and this was endorsed by the judicial commission. According to IGFC Baluchistan, more than 100 training camps were actively training the Baluch militants out of which almost 30 camps were located inside Afghanistan.4 Baluch separatists are now active in Karachi as well; supplying weapons and ammunition to the criminal gangs of Layari. In May 2012, the authorities apprehended 3 BLA activists from Sher Shah Colony of Karachi while they were proliferating weapons from Baluchistan into the city.5
BLA has put a ban on Pakistans National Anthem in the schools of the province and have killed many patriotic Pakistanis on raising the National Flag and reading National Anthem in the schools.
University Students? 3 captured BLA activists in Karachi
2. Ethnic Strife: The Provincial government does not have a clue as to how to overcome the daily law
and order situation. Ethnic target killings, kidnapping, coercion and intimidation of non-Baluch settlers, including Pushtun, Punjabi and Kashmiri, are common law and order incidents. The frequency of these incidents is ever increasing. About 100,000 people (mostly non-Baluch) have migrated to other provinces due to non-stop violence6. The Blame of missing persons that is put on FC might also be linked to the fact that most of the FC personnel are of Pushtun ethnicity. Resultantly, FC becomes victim of media and Baluch separatists propaganda in missing persons and kidnapping issues.
3. Sectarian Violence: The sectarian violence has compounded the situation further particularly the
killing of Hazara Shia settlers in and around Quetta city. It has been proven now that foreign secret services like CIA and Mossad are actively involved in sowing sectarian violence in order to recruit foot soldiers for international sectarian terrorist organization like Jundullah to operate in Iran. It is a noteworthy fact that after Jundullah leadership was executed; due to joint efforts of Pakistani and Iranian intelligence agencies last year; the sectarian violence within Baluchistan, particularly against Hazara Shia, has compounded. 4. Governance issue: Today there is literally no government in Baluchistan. The FC was put under the
Sectarian violence A serious challenge
Chief Minister Baluchistan but most of the time, he remains absent from the province. Most of the ministers in the province have been involved in filing cases against each other for kidnapping and sabotage. Former Interior Minister hinted during the missing persons case prosecution that the government would withdraw all the cases against the BLA founder Brahamdagh Bugti and the Baluchistan Liberation Army leader Nawabzada Harbayar Marri.7,8 This strengthened the perception that Islamabad is victimizing the local Baluch leaders. Certainly, the political situation in the province is nothing short of a comical circus
Testimony of good governance in the province
Missing Persons of Baluchistan 64
where all the actors remain completely oblivious to the gravity of the ensuing chaos in the province. and corruption since independence. Our country is losing Rs. 6 to 8 billion per day due to this corrupt government.9,10 But the situation in Baluchistan has gone beyond precarious now but the PPP provincial ministers not only consider it harmless but also encourage it; as stated by the Communication Minister of Baluchistan Ali Madad Jatak11. This corruption has capsized the entire administrative machinery in the province while a scattered population is in need of radical steps in development of the poverty stricken province.
5. Corruption: The Current PPP regime has been declared as the worst in terms of financial management
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Recently every minister in Baluchistan, (where every member of Baluchistan assembly is a minister with one or two exceptions) was allocated Rs. 300 million for development works. This trend has been prevailing since last five years and till now Baluchistan government has wasted Rs. 410 billion in embezzlement and mismanagement.
Ali Madad Jatak Minister and Corruption promoter!
reasons behind the socio-economic plight of the locals. Corruption and lack of long-term planning along with power politics by the local politicians has played critical role in keeping the locals on the lowest economic ladder. As per the Constitution, resource allocation among the provinces is done on the basis of population but it is not feasible for Baluchistan because here only 4% of the total population of the country is scattered over 45% of its total area. A situation with very low persons per square kilometer that would require more resources than those allocated presently under NFC Award. Jirga system is the biggest hurdle in ensuring social justice in the complex Baluch tribal society. The presence of this system implies that there are vast areas where government and judiciary has no writ or jurisdiction and has made compromise for political gains.
6. Social Issues: Scattered population, inadequate infrastructure and low literacy rate are the major
7. Sardari System: The tribal structure of Baluch society is the biggest challenge in provision of social and economic uplift of common Baluchis. All the major tribes hold centuries old grudges against each other and this social dynamic plays a central role in the abuse of power against other tribes especially when a politician from a certain tribe joins the provincial or federal government. This feudal Sardari system has literally stalled the development in many parts of the province particularly in the restive districts while the Army is trying desperately for the social uplift of common man through building schools and hospitals. Every federal government in the history of Pakistan has used this tribal system for its own political gains.
It was in the 19th century when the British introduced this system to divide and rule the brave tribes by pitching them against each other. In 1972, the Baluchistan Provincial Assembly passed a resolution and asked the federal government of Zulifiqar Ali Bhutto (PPP) to abolish the Sardari and Jirga systems but the PPP government brushed aside the resolution and dragged Pakistan Army into political quagmire of Baluchistan and the military was used against the very people who were asking to abolish the rotten system of British era. This
operation created a gulf between the armed forces and the Baluch masses. This Sardari and Jirga system has defied the Constitutions provisions for the security of common man by the state, more than once, but higher judiciary never took any notice. Now few influential sardars (mainly Bugti, Marri and Mengal), with Indian help, are actively launching a separatist movement on political and diplomatic front. Alarming aspect of these sinister developments is that their opinions are given immense attention by international media and thus the foreign powers are exploiting their demands to keep Islamabad under pressure for geo-strategic reasons. It remains the most throbbing tragedy that despite being in a war since the last 10 years, Pakistan has failed to adopt a cohesive and comprehensive national security policy to proivde guidelines for defining terrorism and making amendments in the constitution to translate that policy into anti-terror laws. This is the most fundamental flaw in Pakistans national security doctrine in the 21st century. The Pakistan Army and LEAs have been fighting a complex covert war within the urban centers across the state since the last decade and there is no end in sight due to continuation of this flawed policy. No judicial and media support exists for the men continue giving the ultimate sacrifices to secure the homeland. Almost all the terrorist apprehended by the Army and LEAs have either been released or have not been punished severely to set a precedent for their cadres who are planning to launch more attacks on Pak Sarzameen. Results have thus been catastrophical!
Private militias An open challenge to law
Internally, three out of four provincial capitals are faced with ethnic, sectarian and religious militancy; all buoyed by foreign elements as sheer ineptitude of both the provincial and federal governments has created opportunities for hostile elements to work in Pakistan with impunity. Regionally, desperate efforts are underway to isolate Pakistan from the Region. Pakistans relations with Iran and China are the main target. This explains the killing of Chinese and Shia in Baluchistan. Internationally, Pakistan is being made a scapegot to concede the US/NATO failure in their socalled war on terror in Afghanistan. Intense media psy-ops explain this and now the US is openly threatening Pakistan. Due to this policy level failure, not BLA terrorists how many of these are in missing persons list? only the internal security profile is presenting a bleak picture but external threats are also mounting on the Western front of Pakistan which is constituted by 1800 km open border with US-occupied Afghanistan; from where CIA, Mosssad and other foreign agencies are actively working in alliance to separate Baluchistan. Indians have their own obvious agenda against Pakistan. But the question arises as to why the US wants to separate Baluchistan from Pakistan? We must understand that this is part of the big-
ger Great Game which was and is being played in the region to assert control over the geography, natural resources, trade corridors and in cementing the political clout from Central Asia to the Indian Ocean. Afghainstan and Baluchistan are two most important regions in this strategic game plan.
Baluchistan and the Global Geopolitical Great Game

Baluchistan has remained a great geographical attention of the global player for its strategic location on the map and vast untapped mineral resources which include gold, copper, natural gas, oil, marble and coal. All major trade and energy routes from South East Asia to Middle East and from Central Asia to Indian Ocean pass through this region. Baluchistan remained center stage of the 19th centurys Great Game between Russian and British Empires. American interest in the region can be traced back to 1942, when a map of Indian subcontinent emerged under the title Outline of Post-War New World Map created by Maurice Gomberg of Philadelphia PA. Interestingly, it includes a manifesto describing a "New World Moral Order", along with quotes from Roosevelt's Four Freedoms speech12.The proposed strategy about Indian subcontinent was outlined in following words, The areas known as India, including Afghanistan, Baluchistan, Nepal, Bhutan and Burma shall be unified as a demilitarized federated Republics of India. Interestingly, both the map and the stated policy recognized Baluchistan as a separate state13. Certainly the aftermath of the World War II and the creation of Pakistan in 1947 as the largest independent Muslim state in the world altered this grand geopolitical plan. British Empire lost her influence due to destruction caused by the later years of the war. The Second World War brought colonial era to its end. But despite these changes on worlds political landscape, the Great Game of global control continues, rather it has become more ruthless now. So, how much of this grand strategic plan of the US has changed in the post 9/11 world? Not much. Strategic goals remain the same i.e. to have complete control over all major trade and energy corridors of the world. To rule over all sea lines of communications in and out of the Strait of Hurmoz, over the countries of Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and last but not the least, over the strategic port of Gawader in order to prevent the Chinese access to the base. This port has been regarded as part of Chinese Naval strategy, String of Pearls by some Indian and Western analysts. Thus, Baluchistan lies in the middle of this grand US plan.
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Pakistani port of Gawadar Bone of contention for the US
We, the U.S.A., in cooperation with our allies, for reasons of our national safety and in the interests of international morality, are determined to crush and completely destroy the military power of the Axis aggressors, and their satellites regardless of cost, effort and time necessary to accomplish this task. This statement in above map explains why the US has been fighting wars across the world since the last half century irrespective of cost of these wars.
This grand plan must not be misinterpreted and mis-
understood by Pakistani security managers as an ancient idea or a conspiracy theory. Events in the last 10 years alone must be enough to prove that it is a real conspiracy and not just a theory albeit unlike colonial era, now
New plan for old dream of control
the methodology has been changed to implode the states from within and dividing them into smaller states on ethnic and sectarian lines through multipronged 4GW. Apart from containing China, the US would never like an economic block comprising Pakistan, Iran and Turkey to be connected through rail and road links, once again, making Baluchistan the most important region in South East Asia. Any such plan would go against the US strategic interests due to the following reasons; 1. Pak-Iran relations would be bolstered and the entire US investment on Jundullah would be wasted. 2. Iranian isolation would end in the region. 3. China, through Pakistan and Iran, would be able to have access to Middle East and Europe, using Turkish land bridge. 4. Turkey would expand her clout beyond Middle East. Recent outreach to China for alternate Silk Route through Central Asia to Europe is part of this Turkish strategy. 5. The US dream of having a base in Baluchistan in order to keep an eye on Iran, Afghanistan and China would be withered away. The US had deployed a well worked out strategy to prevent the above mentioned developments. War on terror has provided CIA and Mossad the opportunities to launch multiple low level conflicts, terrorism, sabotage, psy-ops and espionage operations and insurgencies both in Pakistan and Iran. CIA ran a clandestine operation to attack Iran using sectarian Baluch elements. The idea was to create ethnic and sectarian unrest in Iran and sabotage Pak-Iran relations. Drone bases and intelligence gathering stations were established in Baluchistan behind the faade of combat-

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Trans-Eurasian Rail Link via Turkish Land Bridge Challenge for the US Strategy in 21st century!
ing terrorism. CIA is using stealth drones against Iran and Pakistan. But post-Salala Pakistani response forced the US to remove these bases and intelligence gathering stations. Washington has been pushing for having permanent intelligence bases in the province since many years, but refusal by Islamabad is among the main reasons of diplomatic strain between the two capitals. Pakistani security establishment believes that the recent US diplomatic, political and media maneuvering on Baluchistan Congressional hearings, resolutions by the US senators for independent Baluchistan, cancellation of seminar on the Baluchistan crisis and threats to Pakistan from Panettaare all part of pressure tactics to tame Pakistan in allowing CIA to establish its covert network and intelligence stations in the province14. The US and CIA involvement in Baluchistan has been proven in case of Jundullah and covert espionage operations of CIA but a frequently asked question is why the Indian government is getting involved in the Baluchistan issue? From a pure strategic and security point of view the answer is straight forward one. The military dominance in any region depends on the capabilities to out maneuver and out do the enemy in rapidity and gaining control
Lets give Baluchistan the right of self-determination to fix Pakistan,Dana Rohrabacher.
of terrain. After securing these objectives, the entire discussion about the actual conflict becomes futile unless these earlier advantages are maintained through military and other means. It is a fact that Pakistan does not enjoy any strategic depth when it comes to military threat from India under her Cold Start Doctrine (CSD) except few districts of Baluchistan from where Pakistan would be able to launch a counter-offensive to beat back Indian Independent Battle Groups (IBGs). Flanking attacks against Indian IBGs, from Punjab and Sindh, wouldnt be effective as CSD seeks the capability to make multiple ingresses in Pakistan across the international border simultaneously. An independent Baluchistan, indeed, would take away any kind of strategic depth that Pakistan has today, from the east of the Iranian and the Afghan border to the west of Indus. Indian thinkers believe that after planned secession of Baluchistan, they would have the capability to cut Pakistan into two by attacking the soft belly of Pakistan (Rahim Yar Khan-Sakkur axis). To achieve this, Indians have been working on a similar strategy similar to the one they deployed in East Pakistan against West Pakistan in 1971 since their arrival in Afghanistan after 9/11. Lastly, post-Salala geopolitical scenario has put India in a position to intensify her anti-Pakistan strategic moves in diplomacy and media warfare axis. The timing of fresh Indian allegations against Pakistan for protecting the perpetrators of 26/11 is a well contemplated move to undermine the Pakistani efforts and sacrifices in combat against terrorism. In the backdrop of all these ominous developments in and around Pakistan, the missing persons case must be examined in a security perspective to guess if the Supreme Court interim order would ensure the law and order in the province.
Revisiting the missing persons issue

It is a thumb rule in every COIN strategy to secure as much local support as possible to take advantage away from the insurgents. Then why would FC kidnap or kill innocent Baluchis? Above analysis proves beyond doubt that under current situation losing public support of Baluch people will be the last thing Pakistn Army, FC or LEAs would even think of. Then there were other aspects of the petition which the Supreme Court has not addressed in the interim order. Missing persons is one of the problems but it is not the only problem in the province. There are multiple questions on the legal and judicial level which must be answered by the judiciary and government. 1. Why did the Supreme Court focus on only a single aspect of the petition? Issues like killing of nonBaluch settlers and sabotage were sidelined. 2. How was it determined that it was actually FC who did all these kidnappings and not the BLA terrrorists in FC uniforms? Even GHQ was attacked by TTP terrorists wearing army uniforms. 3. Why did not the Supreme Court ever ask the government about the national anti-terrorism and counterinsurgency policy? 4. If FC is killing Baluchs, then who is killings people of other ethnicities incluing FC personnel? 5. If the Supreme Court did not have any reservation on in-camera briefings about the law and order situation in Karachi then why are ISI and MI not allowed to do the same in Baluchistan?
6. How woul the exact number of missing people be astertained? Governemt, NGOs, media and commission under Justice Javed Iqbal all have come-up with different numbers. 7. If the terrorists can come to media to spread their venom then why the IGFC cannot present his position to the nation on a subtle issue in order to end confusions? 8. Why has the judiciary failed to punish a single terrorist through judicial process in the last 10 years? Certainly, no one can be punished unless proven guilty in court of law. The Pakistani Constitution guarantees this right but what it doesnt guarantee, in its present form, is the way to pursue the proxies and punish the terrorists. These issues cannot be overcome by the normal administrative laws during a war. As a globally accpeted principle, emergency or wartime laws are instigated in an eventuality like existential war. In any constitutional democracy, the judiciary follows the constitutional framework and existing laws to prosecute the criminals. The impact and effectiveness of these laws depends squarally on the efficiency of the law making institutions and the federal government. Since 2008, all the major constitutional amendments were focused entirely on power politics and no debate on threats like; 4GW, Af-Pak and CSD was ever initiated at any policy level forum. After 18th, 19th and 20th amendments,the federation has been weakened as these amendments endowed the corrupt and sepratists elements within the Pakistani political circles. The uproar in political circles for new provinces on ethnic and sectarin lines has been increased as well after these amendments. Resultantly, the entire judicial framework has failed to bring the terrorists of 21st century to juctice as underlying laws are of 19th century which now have become obsolete in contemporary world. The US introduced PATRIOT ACT and established Department of Homeland Security to combat terror. Similarly India, UK and Yet another attack on gas installation, yet another other countries made amendments in their legal damage assessment - Outcomes of reactive response strategy! frameworks to help their intelligence and LEAs. But in Pakistan, despite being in state of war for last 10 years, no such legislation has been done; not even after 100,000 casualties, both dead and wounded. Under the current legal framwork in the state, no secret service or LEA can perform its duty to protect the citizens while ensuring the sanctity of constitutional confines. Unless new legislation is passed by the legislators, a compromise is inevitable. Either the santity of the Constitution or the security of Pakistan only one of these two can be ensured at one time. This is exactly what is happening in Baluchistan. An institutional disconnect has been created in order to confuse the people over the missing persons issue. This dangerous disconnect between the judiciary and LEAs must be eradicated through a massive clean-up in the political system. After the revelations of Memogate scandal investigations, the current regime itself has become a security threat for the country and must be ousted ASAP. Current political lot has failed to solve the
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issue of terrorism at policy level and entire responsibility has been put on the Pakistan Army and intelligence agencies. The Supreme Courts decision on Karachi failed to bring any improvement in law and order situation there and if Supreme Court issued another order or even declared emergency in Baluchistan; there would be no change on ground just like Karachi. There must be no doubt in our minds that problem lies not with enforcement of laws but with the laws and lawmakers.
Way Forward and Conclusion

In the end, it would be prudent to revisit 1971 political turmoil when East Pakistan (A province at that time like Baluchistan) was under similar attacks. Pakistan intelligence agencies unearthed the conspiracy of political traitors in time but the judicial process and military leadership failed to punish them to make an example and result was the secession of East Pakistan. Pakistani media and diplomacy remained criminally feeble against ruthless Indian propaganda. Same is the case today; rather it has gone worse as now Indian backed elements like SAFMA are openly maligning Pakistani security forces over the Baluchistan issue. Private media has also been compromised and government controlled media on the other hand is being run by incompetent elements. Political settlement was tried in 1971 as well but it failed Pakistan because the system remained unable to punish the traitors. On the contrary; it provided time to the Indian backed Mukti Bahini to slaughter more Pakistanis in disguise of Pakistan Army. BLA is modern day Mukti Bahini and there must be no doubt about it. Politically; the PPP government is as inept as Yahya Khans regime was; back then. The enemy and his strategy are not similar- they are exactly identical. Did Pakistani institutions learn any lesson from 1971 debacle? Unfortunately, the answer is No. The Pakistan Army is fighting against all odds, just like it did in 1971, but it has no clue as to how to manage the media matters and perception management crisis all over Pakistan in general and in Baluchistan in particular, where every hostile asset is working obstinately to demolish the image of Pakistan Armed Forces. Judiciary is not punishing the terrorists and passing the blame to LEAs and Pakistan Army who are losing lives daily in the line of duty. PPP government is usurping Baluchistan rights and not making the changes in laws which it approved two months ago in a high level meeting15. The resumption of NATO supplies by this treacherous PPP regime has opened yet another axis for internal security. As per our reports, a civil disobedience movement is building with more intensity among the tribes
Propaganda Warfare Weakest link in Pakistani defense strategy
in Baluchistan, FATA and Khyber who have vowed to block and burn the trucks carrying the supplies. The religious parties are also planning blockade of Peshawar and the road to Khyber Pass. Certainly, the regime has gravely miscalculated the national anger and rage over this sell off. Everyone was expecting that NATO supplies would remain closed especially after threats by Panetta and the Pentagons planned covert strikes inside Pakistan. PPP government is lying to the nation and trying to mislead the masses through media that only non-lethal supplies are going inside Afghanistan but in reality NATOs missing containers were the biggest supply source of all lethal weapons being used against Pakistan both by TTP and BLA operatives and CIA including Hellfire missiles for the US drones. But after resumption of supplies CIA drone attacks have resumed as well with renewed vengeance and Pakistan is once again standing where it was on 26/11 after Salala attack and threat of complete civil war is lurking around the corner. Keeping all these developments in sight, it would be prudent to assume that the security situation in Baluchistan is going to become more volatile and complex. The most unfortunate aspect of the current security profile is that almost all Pakistani security, judicial and political institutions are on a collision course while the enemy has advanced its agenda. A ruthless surgery of existing system is required. Administrative measures alone would not work now. Normal processes work only in the ambient of normalcy. Extraordinary times demands extraordinary measures. The following measure must be taken to handle the situation. A policy level decision is needed more urgently than ever before. Pakistans failure in devising a comprehensive strategy comprising on strong legal, judicial and administrative anti-terror laws under a decisive anti-terrorism policy is showing existential symptoms. The cure is still available but a decisive iron hand at highest level is required. Military courts and war rules must be provoked in Baluchistan till appropriate amendments are made in constitution to empower particular offices, both civilian and military, to combat the menace of terrorism and foreign funded insurgencies. All BLA, BRA and Jundullah terrorists must be tried in military courts. Although the law and order situation in Karachi is much worse than any other part of the country but through hostile media propaganda an impression is being created that Baluchistan is about to fall. Media is presenting a monster image of the Army and intelligence agencies in Baluchistan. ISPR will have to play pro-active role to trash anti-army propaganda. Pakistan has suffered in information and propaganda warfare and it is time to rethink and redraw a radical proactive media strategy. No TV channel must be allowed to air interviews of any element which does not believe in the integrity of Pakistan or is involved in terrorism and sabotage. PEMRA must act against those channels that broadcast these interviews. Baluchistans border with Afghanistan is gateway of weapons, drugs and terrorists. It must be properly mined and fenced leaving selected entry points like border with India. Helmend province of Afghanistan is the main hub of CIAs drug labs and has turned into biggest source of narcotics supplies in the world. Open border is an open invitation for invasion under Af-Pak as well. Recent maneuvering of US aircraft carrier and growing chatter in international media about covert raids inside Pakistan by US Special Forces must not be ignored.

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A Word of Caution and Advice

Baluchistan is still a manageable crisis. It has only been mishandled and mismanaged gravely, allowing the enemies to exploit the stupidity and the treachery of the regime and the naivety and inaction of the judiciary. A strong federal government is pre-requisite for any solid response strategy as no operational, tactical or
strategic plan can be chalked out or deployed in the presence of this regime. So, it is clear now that in order to address the Baluchistan crisis and all other crises in the country, a regime change in Islamabad is the most necessary pre-requisite step and must be taken urgently by the Army and the Supreme Court else the collective responsibility for the national meltdown would rest on these two last standing institutions. Needless to say a demolition of the state would also bring down the army and the judiciary as well. A salvage operation can be done now. Tomorrow, the initiative will be with the enemies!
End Notes
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1 Agencies told to produce Balochistans ,missing in next hearing, Daily Dawn, 20th June 2012. http://dawn.com/2012/06/20/balochistan-case-sc-resumes-hearing/ 2 Balochistan missing persons case FC involved in disappearances: SC, Daily Pakistan Observer, 21st June 2012 http://pakobserver.net/detailnews.asp?id=161104 3 Balochistan unrest: Judicial panel faults foreign spy agencies, Daily Express Tribune, 10th June 2012 http://tribune.com.pk/story/391539/balochistan-unrest-judicial-panel-faults-foreign-spy-agencies/ 4 IGFCs Balochistan story, Daily The Nation, 4th June 2012 http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaperdailyenglish-online/editorials/04-Jun-2012/igfc-s-balochistan-story 5 3 alleged BLA activists arrested from Karachi, Duniya TV, 7th May 2012 http://dunyanews.tv/index.php?key=Q2F0SUQ9OC NOaWQ9NzkwNjY= 6 Ibid 7 Balochistan killings: SC asks ISI, MI again to submit reports, Daily Dawn, 25th February 2012 http://dawn.com/2012/02/25/ balochistan-killings-sc-asks-isi-mi-again-to-submit-reports/ 8 Reconciliation efforts: Political cases against Marri, Brahamdagh withdrawn, Daily Express Tribune, 27th February 2012 http://tribune.com.pk/story/342298/reconciliation-efforts-political-cases-against-marri-brahamdaghwithdrawn/ 9 Gilanis term was worst ever in Pakistan: TIP, Daily The News, 21st June 2012 http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News13-15503-Gilanis-term-was-worst-ever-in-Pakistan-TIP 10NAB chief exceeds Transparency claims on corruption figures, Daily The News, July 01, 2012 http://www.thenews.com.pk/ Todays-News-13-15732-NAB-chief-exceeds-Transparency-claims-oncorruption- figures 11 There is corruption in Balochistan, there is no harm in it: Ali MadadJatak, Daily Express Tribune, 11th May 2012 http://tribune.com.pk/story/377403/there-is-corruption-in-balochistan-there-is-no-harm-in-it-ali-madad-jatak/ 12 Outline of the Post-War New World Maphttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outline_of_the_Post-War_New_World_Map 13 The Post War II New World Order Map: A Proposal to Re-arrange the World after an Allied Victory (Revealed By Irish Historian Thomas Moriarty) by Maurice Gomberg, Global Research, June 13, 2010 http://www.globalresearch.ca/index. php?context=va&aid=19706 14 US pushing Pak for bases in Balochistan: Report, Asia Age, 20th February 2012 http://www.asianage.com/international/uspushing-pak-bases-balochistan-report-259
15 Balochistan CM given powers to deploy FC, Daily Dawn, 30th May 2012,http://dawn.com/2012/05/30/balochistan-cm-givenpowers-to-deploy-fc/ *************************
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6 The Master Stroke to Victory

Seizing NATO Supplies!
Pakistans Threat Environment

Pakistan is effectively surrounded by enemies in a Triple Pincer from East, West and from within right now! The simultaneous deployment of American Af-Pak, Indian Cold Start and the insurgent 4GW have created an existential security crisis for Pakistan on an unprecedented threat axis which is rapidly closing the strategic encirclement. The US doctrine of Af-Pak is designed to launch an invasion into Pakistan from Afghanistan after declaring it part of the battlefield in global WOT. The final phase of Af-Pak is now being deployed. The revelations of the infamous memo and the subsequent disclosures of US plans to attack and decapitate Pakistan army and its Command and Control systems should serve as the final wakeup call. The internally deployed 4GW is already keeping Pakistan army engaged in multiple low and high intensity conflicts which are decentralized, urban and asymmetric being fought within its own borders. 4GW is also causing the collapse of the national economy, governance and social fabric through a massively corrupt and compromised regime of PPP and a sold out media which acts as the fifth column in the information war. The Eastern flank is covered by the Indian Cold Start which is being aggressively developed and deployed by the Indians despite the farce of the peace talks, CBMs. These security challenges are unprecedented and can only be compared with the stratagem deployed in former East Pakistan by the Indians in 1971 where a similar triple Pincer had surrounded the Pakistan army. In 1971, the two Eastern and Western pincers were by the Indian army themselves while the internal rebellion was through the proxy militia of Mukti Bahini. Pakistan army has so far been fighting the insurgency aspect of the 4GW only, while the economic, political,

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diplomatic and information warfare axis of this ruthless war have not been countered as the current regime is treacherously corrupt and compromised. Resultantly, in a catastrophic failure of the state organs, critical infrastructure and the national governance, the hostile forces have been allowed to continue their solid grip on national politics, economy and media creating more intimidating crisis for the country when its armed forces are already embroiled in a series of HICs and LICs. The American direct support to deployed 4GW against Pakistan reveals that the US wants more political and diplomatic concessions from Islamabad by bringing Pakistan Army under pressure through psychological tactics, coercive diplomacy, direct threats and covert support to hostile elements. Major areas where the US wants Pakistan to make compromise includes unquestionable access to any part of Pakistan, access within the core HQs of Pakistan Army, inclusion of Pakistan in NPT and FMCT nuclear control regimes, acceptance of Indian hegemony in the region, reduction in military and economic cooperation with China and Iran and most importantly compromising Kashmir. All these US objectives are intrinsically in conflict with Pakistans national security interests. This also indicates the current ominous security threat matrix for Pakistan Army where internal threats of indirect and sub-conventional nature are as lethal as the high intensity external conventional threats. Primarily, this threat matrix is manifestation of Pakistans weak and submissive foreign policy and presence of corrupt and incompetent governments in Islamabad since the beginning of WoT. The security crisis Pakistan faces today are not mere law and order problems, as the government and the courts perceive them to be, but in reality are inter-connected and systematically executed covert war plans of the 21st century warfare to reshape the greater Middle East with Pakistan being the prime target under the Af-Pak/4GW/cold start doctrines to balkanize the country on Yugoslavia model. The triple pincer which is now already deployed in an advanced stage is designed to achieve exactly this catastrophic end for the Pakistani state. NATO supplies, through Pakistan, remained the most efficient and functional covert source of weapons and arms for the NSVAs, political gangs and sub-nationalists. These actors pose the biggest threat to the national security on the internal axis and NATO containers have contributed significantly in aggravating this internal security threat. As per media reports, some 11,000 containers are missing overall containing NATO standard weapons, ammunitions and military equipment. These containers were emptied inside Pakistan and weapons and arms from these containers were sold or distributed among various militant groups across the country. An investigation in this regard has been set into motion but only after when Pakistan has suffered near 100,000 (both dead and injured) fatalities in so-called war on terror. According to FAS (Federation of American Scientists), the militant elements within Pakistan are getting every kind of sophisticated weapons across the country through some corrupt and treacherous elements in Pakistan customs under the ministry of interior, a ministry with epically failed performance. It has been estimated that on the average, 1000 containers and 1500 oil tankers have been passing through Pakistani roads every month before entering into Afghanistan since the US invasion. Pakistans road infrastructure has been damaged severely due to excessively loaded containers and oil tankers. Even according to the modest estimate, Pakistan could have earned US$ 30 billion by taxing NATO containers at US$ 10,000 each. Pakistan has lost approximately US$ 70 billion in American war on terror apart from losing 37,000 lives.
Enemy NSVAs (TTP and other religiously motivated militant groups) Sub-Nationalists / Separatists (BLA/BRA) Sectarian Groups Political Militant Wings Economic Meltdown Local Media
Threat Perceived Insurgency, LICs, Suicide Bombing, Subversion, Attacks on defence installations, kidnapping
Category
INTERNAL THREATS
Nature of Threat Political, Military
Impact on Pak Army Direct
SubConventional
Political and ideological sedition, ability to sabotage the rail and road infrastructure at critical points in Baluchistan Violent fragmentation of civil society on sectarian lines, penetration of extremist ideology in lower ranks of Armed forces. Serious law and order situation in major urban cities Would impact Pakistan Armys ongoing anti-terrorism operations and future preparations. Can lead to a serious cut in funds for R&D and procurements. Media outlets with foreign funding and involvement presenting a hostile view of Pakistan Armys COIN operations.
SubConventional Terrorism, Serious Law & Order issue Urban Terrorism Non-Kinetic
Political, Military
Direct/ Indirect
Governance, Indirect Administrative Administrative Indirect Governance, Direct Administrative Administrative Direct
Psychologcal Warfare
Extra Regional Forces (ERFs) in Afghanistan
Economic and Military Sanctions International Media India
Military buildup in Afghanistan, Direct invasion/Surgical Strike inside Pakistan, Drone attacks, Destabilizing internal security by providing NSVAs with an excuse for their anti-state war behind the faade of Jihad, Psy-ops, US/NATO can impose sanctions under the pretext that Pakistan Army is accomplice in protecting terrorists hideouts. Massive Psy-ops against Pakistan army to destroy the credibility as a professional defense force. Execution of Cold Start, Coercive diplomacy, media ops, supporting NSVAs against Pakistan Army,
EXTERNAL THREATS
Conventional, SubConventional
Military, Diplomatic
Direct , Indirect
Non-Kinetic Non-Kinetic, Psychological Conventional, SubConventional, Non-Kinetic
Diplomatic Diplomatic Military, Political, Diplomatic
Direct Direct Direct, Indirect
2012 Threat Matrix for Pakistan National Security

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Roughly 3 million containers and tankers passed through Pakistan in last 10 years without paying any excise duty or tax. There exists no legal or international document, signed by Pakistan, to give this unprecedented facility to the US and NATO for indefinite time period. Corrupt politicians are fooling the nation that Pakistan is bound to provide this suicidal logistical supply route to the UN/NATO under the UN resolutions but always fail to mention that particular resolution and clause which they keep referring in their media debate on this issue.
NDN: A Feasible Alternate of Pakistan?

Pakistans decision to block the NATO supplies after gratuitous and devastating attack on Salala check post has halted most of the US/NATO operations in Afghanistan and has dented their covert operations inside Pakistan under Af-Pak as well. The US/NATO forces are suffering due to severe shortage of fuel and spares. Ammunition stock pile is also receding fast as the blockade has entered in the second month. The US planners were desperately weighing the other routes through the various road and rail links across Russia and Central Asian states. Commonly known as Northern Distribution Network (NDN), these routes are irksome for the sustainable logistical support due to multiple political, geographical and economical factors. Neither these routes can become a long term alternative of Pakistani routes nor the US would abandon Pakistani routes for other strategic reasons. Economy of the NDN routes is the most challenging aspect. US debt crisis and collapse of Euro-zone has forced many NATO countries to shelve their previously planned military programs just to sustain this expensive war in Afghanistan. Ever before February 2011, when Russian parliament allowed the military supplies through NDN, 100% military supplies would go through Pakistani roads or air corridor. South NDN: It is the smallest route starting from Georgias all weather port of Poti but it is also the most expensive one due to on and off loading of supplies on ships to get them across the Caspian Sea. Northern NDN: Starts from Estonia, passes through Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan before entering into Afghanistan. It is safer but is too long and expensive. It cannot be used in all weathers.
Main NDN: A small portion of northern NDN which only involves Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Major problem is poor road infrastructure in Uzbekistan. Presence of Uzbek militant groups in the region is also a threatening factor. Eastern NDN: Cannot be used as it connects Russia and China with Afghanistan. Apart from being 10 times more expensive in terms of the financial cost and time involved to get the supplies in Afghanistan, all NDN routes connect central Asian Stans with Northern Afghanistan and from there Salang Highway is the only road inside Afghanistan connecting to the Eastern and Southern parts of the country. This highway often gets chocked in winters due to heavy snow falling. Political challenges are also there to put a big question mark on sustainability of these routes as the Russians are getting upset with the US over Missile Defense Shield program for Europe. Implementation of START agreement, signed in 2008, is also a bone of contention between the two. Though the Russians have allowed the NDN routes for now but certainly this willingness is not unconditional. Despite shifting one third of their supplies on NDN in last two years, the state of the US/NATO forces is precarious in Afghanistan and their supply lines are still blocked inside Pakistan. There are almost 3000 military vehicles, trucks, armored cars and heavy equipment stranded inside Pakistan. Additionally, around 5000 NATO containers with ammunition, small arms, sensitive communication and C4I
The Master Stroke to Victory 82

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military equipment and non-military goods have been stuck inside Pakistan. This equipment is enough to support at least 5 armored infantry divisions of the US/NATO forces in Afghanistan. This is just one lot of supplies which is stranded. More were in the pipeline and have been held back as supply route is still choked. The US is building an invasion army in Afghanistan. Target is not within Afghan theatre but on the east inside Pakistan. The US/NATO are claiming that Al-Qaeda is finished in Afghanistan. US is also engaging Afghan Taliban for peace talks. Then why would they need these threatening levels of military buildup in Afghanistan when they plan to leave by 2014?
M1A1 Abram heavy duty Main Battle Tanks (MBTs) are being transported through C-17 cargo planes using Pakistani air space!
Pakistan army is now in the most commanding position against the US/NATO and has the opportunity to destroy the entire Af-Pak doctrine without even firing a shot by seizing the stranded NATO supplies. Pakistan army can seize the military hardware as compensation for last 11 years of free transit without taxes, death and destruction caused to Pakistan. This seizure of military hardware would stop the entire war against Pakistan into its tracks as without the required military hardware, the US army is in no position to roll into Pakistan. The equipment is stuck in Pakistan and now the entire Af-Pak is in tatters and a major supply route for foreign funded VNSAs has also been choked. Needless to say, if Pakistan allows this stuck up armored infantry divisions to enter Afghanistan, this equipment would be deployed against Pakistan and Pak army will find itself on the receiving end of these weapons, along with the resurgent insurgency of the TTP and the threat of Indian Cold start from the east. That would be a fatal war of annihilation completing the triple pincer against Pakistan. The stakes and the risks of such a folly are simply unimaginable. According to Shoshana Bryen of Cutting Edge Magazine, the US will wage a war inside Pakistan from Afghanistan and drones operations would be carried out from the bases inside Afghanistan. The Af-Pak strategy would remain effective until ERFs are ousted from the region. Other factors like the strategic shift in the US policy after ongoing dialogue with Taliban would also contribute in extension of the US presence in Afghanistan but Islamabads decision to resume the NATO supplies would be the primary reason for ERFs extended stay in the region. Pakistan must eject the ERF from Afghanistan now. All military, diplomatic, political and media resources should be mobilized to achieve this grand strategic objective.
Recent Development and Future Dynamics

Though, the US has agreed to create a Taliban office in Qatar (opposing the Pak/Turk offer for Taliban office in Turkey) as a confidence building measure but the real motives of the US for a prolonged stay in the region is a major hurdle in success of these talks. Taliban have a strong precondition for the success of peace talks i.e. removal of all occupying forces. This should be now be the Pakistani demand also. It has been established now that TTP enjoys complete support and protection of ERFs within Afghanistan from where TTP insurgents carry out attacks on Pakistan army positions. On the other hand, Afghan Taliban and other resistance groups are fighting the ERFs. CIA created the bogey of TTP in 2007 to push the Afghan war into Pakistan after desterilizing the major urban centers of Pakistan. TTP always claim that they are Pakistani chapter of Afghan Taliban but latter party always denied any association of TTP with them. In 2009, President Obama announced Af-Pak doctrine which formally declared Pakistan part of the battlefield in global WoT. TTP is following a violent anarchic ideology of Takfir and according to Islamic law are called
Obama is pledging to reduce the US military engagement in Afghanistan but why still there is a military buildup which includes raising armored strike units equipped with Tank battalions in the provinces of Helmand and Kandahar with M1A1 Abram tanks?

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Kharjee heretics whereas Afghan Taliban, on the contrary, are fighting a genuine war of freedom against western occupation ERFs. A deliberate campaign to prove ISI a rouge intelligence agency, a threat for world peace, is already being run in global media. ISI is accused of helping the militant groups who attack inside Afghanistan against the ERF. Sanctions are being proposed against Pakistan for not preventing IED attacks on the ERF!! Certainly, the implications of these media onslaught would be worrisome for the security managers in absence of an aggressive media policy and strategy but if Pakistan does allow NATO supplies again, the result would be a complete security nightmare as not only it would ensure the prolonged stay of ERFs in Afghanistan but the destabilization of Pakistans urban center would also continue, TTP would launch their fresh attack after getting regrouped and reorganized in Afghanistan under the protection of the US/NATO. Indians would also continue their support to BLA and Baluch sub-nationalists. The Pressure on Pakistan army for conducting military operations in NWA and other parts would also prevail and current meddling into Pakistans internal affairs by the Americans would also continue. Under the current threat matrix, only way forward for Pakistan is to bring the US war on terror to its logical end to secure all the legitimate security interests including ousting the Indian military and intelligence setup from Afghanistan. Blockade of NATO supply lines has dented the Af-Pak strategy and 4GW affectively but the danger is still there and would remain so until Pakistan seize the NATO supplies and then demand a clear withdrawal time table of the US forces. Pakistan holds the key in the entire Great Game and this moment has come after the sacrifices of finest citizen and armed forces personnel and must not be wasted under any circumstances. US is desperate to get back its stuck up equipment and is willing to bend backwards in unprecedented moves to convince Pakistan army that it was a mistake which led to the attack on the Pak army post. So far, Pakistan army is firm in blocking the supplies but must also start to seize the NATO equipment. This US desperation is a clear sign of the panic which is now haunting the US military strategists. Now Pakistan can not just destroy the Af-Pak but also the 4GW completely and thus neutralize the cutting edge of the Indian Cold start as well by focusing on this single historical foe in the region after securing the Western front. In one master stroke, Pakistan can break the pincer encirclement which was rapidly closing the loop. When the Geneva accord was signed in 1988 between the Pakistan government and the Kabul regime, the entire Afghan resistance was kept out of it and was abandoned. Despite having fought for 10 years and sacrificing over a million Afghans, the entire resistance was betrayed and left in the lurch. The result was a bloody civil war in Afghanistan for the next decade. The Geneva accord was a blunder of historic proportions which completely compromised Pakistans entire stakes and interests in Afghanistan. Despite supporting the resistance for 10 years, Pakistan could never have a friendly government in Kabul while Afghanistan remained in a catastrophic condition of state failure. It was only during the Taliban era, from 1996 to 2001, that Pakistan had some form of a friendly government in Afghanistan despite the civil war inside Afghanistan. There were no insurgencies in Pakistan during that period and the Taliban had ousted all Indian assets from the regions under their control. But the civil war that raged in Afghanistan was later exploited by the western forces and the United States to invade Afghanistan once again.
We emphasize again that the Americans and the NATO have already become hostile to Pakistan and would be posing direct and existential threat to Pakistan as long as they are based in Afghanistan. Despite the grievances and betrayals, our Afghan neighbors, with whom we share our faith, history and destiny, are our permanent allies. Pakistan must never forget this. While Pakistan fights multiple insurgencies within its borders which are all being sponsored by CIA and RAW from Afghanistan, it also has two mammoth challenges at hand now for which the entire strength of politics, diplomacy and military must be deployed with full force and wisdom: Force the foreign forces to leave Afghanistan within the shortest possible time. Make sure that Afghanistan gets a stable friendly broad based government having representations of all Afghans from all ethnic segments. Only a stable and peaceful Afghanistan can assure stability in Pakistan and in entire Asia. Americans do not want to leave Afghanistan. They are simply buying time. In fact, they are planning an invasion of Pakistan now. Pakistan will have to force them to destroy their plans and to force them to exit and also make sure that they do not leave a mess behind them. This is the real challenge. Pakistan cannot abandon the Afghan resistance now under any form of exit plan of the foreign forces and must make sure that a friendly and cooperative government is placed in a stable Afghanistan. The Afghans themselves do not have the capacity to resolve their differences. They need help of friendly and Muslim nations from within the region. This is where Pakistan has to take the lead role. The fate of Afghanistan is in the hands of regional countries which are neighbors of Afghanistan. Pakistan, Iran and China hold the key to Afghanistan. These three nations must act in unison and with firm resolve. This immediate block can be expanded to include Russia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey as well. The mission would be to bring peace in Afghanistan and to bring all Afghans on board, even forming a Muslim peacekeeping force to replace the western crusaders till the time situation stabilizes in Afghanistan. Bringing the Pashtuns, Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras together would be a great challenge but can be done by
Now Pakistan must NOT repeat the blunder of the Geneva accord and the post Soviet war era. The Bonn Conference is the Geneva accord of the 21st century where the US is trying to win the war diplomatically which it has lost on the battle field.

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the regional countries. Pakistan has no other option. Another civil war in Afghanistan would be catastrophic especially for Iran and Pakistan. India is planning a strategic role in Afghanistan. They are aggressive, pro-active and already present on ground. Pakistan must snatch Afghanistan from them. India has no business to be in Afghanistan and Pakistan must powerfully deploy all means to make sure that Indian presence is totally eliminated from there. There cannot be any compromise on this. This is NOT post 9/11 scenario. The Americans have been defeated in Afghanistan. Their economy at home is in shambles. Their military is humiliated and is in no position to wage another war. Pakistan can now fully stand up to the Americans and ask them to leave. If the American leadership has any sense, they should read the writings on the wall and learn from the Soviet humiliation and leave this land while they can. Pakistan and Iran must not let the Americans destroy our lands, people and faith. Else, we must do with them what we did to the Soviets. We have done it before. We can do it again. To start with, Pakistan must start raising its own armored infantry divisions from the God sent NATO Maal-e-Ghaneemat we have in our custody! Failure to do so would be a catastrophic mistake which will not be forgiven by the Providence, history and the nation. The window of opportunity is open now, within our grasp but would not remain open for long. The moment to seize the glory has now arrived. Pakistan Zindabaad. ******************
7 Killing the Af-Pak

Strategy Options for Pakistan
Zaid Hamid , Shahzad Masood Roomi
Asia is a body built of clay and water Afghanistan is the heart in this body! If Afghanistan is in turmoil, the whole of Asia would be in Turmoil If Afghanistan is in peace, the whole of Asia would be in peace.
Allama Iqbal
If you know the enemy and know yourself you need not fear the results of a hundred battles. 1
Sun Tzu Pakistan has gravely miscalculated the threats, aims and objectives of Af-Pak. If Af-Pak is not killed by Pakistan, then Pakistan would be killed by it. The first quote mentioned above is a stunning, almost prophetic, geo-political vision of Iqbal is starkly visible today as the entire region; especially Pakistan is faced with an existential threat from the Afghan theatre. While the rapid and violent reshaping of the Muslim Middle East is being orchestrated by the Neo-Cons in the mainland Arab world, the occupation of Afghanistan by the western forces is directly threatening the Muslim heartland in West Asia, greater Khurasan and the Central Asian regions. The second quote of the master Chinese strategist of 500BC defines the basic principle unveiling the secret of decision making about fighting a war. Its relativity to Iqbals quote and to the current situation stems from the prevailing strategic confusion in Pakistani policymakers, both in the civilian and the military spheres, about the future discourse of the so-called war on terror, on critical issue of NATO supplies, on the role of Pakistan in sustaining the Af-Pak, which is primarily a hostile war doctrine against Pakistan itself, and the capabilities and capacity of the Pakistani nation and the armed forces in dealing with any expected threat of a high intensity war against a coalition of US/NATO and India. Pakistan does not know the weakness of its enemy nor
know its own lethal potential to protect its interests in this explosive environment, hence the fatal sequence of blunders by the policy makers in Islamabad. Pakistan has so far suffered 100,000 casualties in this aimless war, both dead and wounded, from every walk of life. Pakistani casualties are many times more than that of suffered by the US, NATO and the Afghan forces combined. Economy has suffered over $ 70 billion in losses, both men and material and the social fabric of the society has been violently torn apart. The entire country has been turned into a battle ground but still the regime in Islamabad does not plan any policy analysis on the Afghan theatre and the fatal threats emerging from it. The strategic blindness of the leadership has created an abysmal existential threat environment for the state and the nation. ********************
89 What is Af-Pak?
In March 2009, the Obama administration came up with a radical Af-Pak strategy under the name of A New Strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan to bring stability in Afghanistan by declaring Pakistan as a partactive battlefield.
Obama announcing Af-Pak, February 2009
Af-Pak policy defined the following points as its main vertices. These are basically the propaganda points to justify the doctrine. 1. Al-Qaeda and its allies have moved to Pakistan. 2. Pakistan is an active military combat zone along with Afghanistan. 3. A high profile attack anywhere in the world in the future will be launched from Pakistan. 4. Al-Qaedas safe havens in Pakistan are a danger not only for the US, but for the entire world.
5. Pakistans performance against Al-Qaeda and its allies would be monitored by the US otherwise Pakistan will not get any military aid from Washington. Killing the Af-Pak 90 6. The Policy proposed a multilateral solution involving nations with conflicting interests, like inviting India, for stabilization efforts in Afghanistan. The undeclared facets of Af-Pak policy which have devastated Pakistan: 1. Af-Pak was deployed at a time when the already deployed 4th Generation War (4GW) had softened up Pakistan enough, through a collapse of economy, judiciary, executive and law and order, for a physical high intensity invasion to be launched in tandem with Indian Cold Start. The government of Pervez Musharraf was forced out earlier and the corrupt and compromised regime of Zardari was in power, army was heavy involved in putting down rebellions in various parts of the country and the media was well and truly on board with the hostile forces to wage a massive, ruthless and vicious information and psy-war on the state, army, ISI and the people. Af-Pak by US/NATO was meant to take the war against Pakistan to new levels of annihilation by actively getting involved militarily to act as force multiplier to the existing 4GW. 2. The support to insurgencies of TTP and BLA were increased to wage a massive war of terrorism, sabotage, subversion and anarchy within Pakistan helping the CIA/RAW to not just inflict heaviest of losses on Pakistan army but also to create the perception that Pakistans nuclear weapons are not safe and may fall into the hands of the terrorists as Pakistan was rapidly turning into a failed state. 3. In addition to supporting the insurgencies, CIA also launched a ruthless drone strikes strategy inside Pakistan to eliminate Al-Qaeda with no legal mandate. Thousands of Pakistanis have lost their lives in these strikes. 4. Drone strategy ignited Pakistani tribes against the Pakistan Army for being an ally with their killers. The emotions were then quickly exploited by the CIA/RAW created TTP to further mobilize local tribes against Pakistan army and the Pakistani state. 5. Serious doubts were created by this strategic and bloody drone strikes campaign on the capabilities of Pakistan armed forces to protect its citizen from any external aggression. 6. There was a dangerous surge in suicide bombing and attacks on the armed forces and security agencies after the Af-Pak was deployed fully. 7. Pakistan Army had to shift extra troops to its Western borders from Eastern border where India is preparing Cold Start doctrine against Pakistan. 8. Pakistan was maligned for supporting terrorism in neighboring countries as a policy. A ruthless campaign was launched in international media against Pakistan Army and ISI. 9. The US made a troops surge inside Afghanistan, in 2009, to combat insurgency but also began a military buildup in provinces bordering Baluchistan.

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10. India launched their Cold Start in tandem with Af-Pak to exploit the geo-strategic opportunity created under 4GW and Af-Pak. Pakistan is well and truly encircled by 3 hostile military doctrines, which are fully deployed, operational and causing maximum damage to the state, army and the people of Pakistan.
Pakistan-Afghanistan: Af-Pak battlefield
In the early winters of 2011, Pakistan army had gained significant victories against the TTP and had pushed the insurgent group into the Kunar province of Afghanistan where a freezing winter awaited the dislocated and beaten terrorists. Though the US army and Afghan government had created a safe haven for the terrorists in the region, the harsh weather and the blockade of the border by Pakistan army had created a serious crisis for the TTP. CIA/RAW wanted to push them back into Pakistan. But there was one problem Pakistan army had sealed the borders. TTP lacked the military muscle to attack and dislocate the Pak army. There was only one option NATO and US had to do get involved. US launched Operation Sayaqa on two Pakistan Army check posts in Mohmand Agency of FATA on the night of 25th November 2011. Even US investigations have vindicated the Pakistani version of the incident that the US forces were well aware of the locations of two Pakistani check posts where 24 Pakistani soldiers were killed by the US special forces and US air force one by one[2]in an unprovoked attack which continued even after US officials were informed about the incident. Pakistans Director General Military Operations did not mince words to say that the Salala attack by NATO was meant to give passage to the TTP terrorists to enter back into Pakistan. Pakistani response was fierce and an unexpected one for the Americans. The US/NATO supply routes were blocked and US was forced to vacate the Shamsi Base. Since then, the American operations in Afghanistan have been practically halted and expenditures have sky rocketed due to relying on expensive Northern Distribution Network (NDN) for limited non-military supplies. The US forces are under tremendous logistical pressure as US war supplies to Afghanistan through Pakistan remain blocked for the last 6 months while Taliban have launched their devastating spring offensive against a crippled NATO and US army.
NATO Supply lines stuck in Pakistan
Within Pakistan, the scenario is much more complex and violently divided over the issue of NATO supplies. Pakistani government is ready to open the blocked NATO supplies despite the fact that parliament has passed a resolution after the US attack on Salala check post defining new terms of engagement with the US, few of which include: No weapons to pass through Pakistani land or air space. No drone would be launched against Pakistan. An apology over the NATO attack. But the U.S. has refused all major demands of the Pakistani parliament. Drone strikes have continued and the US has openly refused to apologize. NATO wants their weapons and fuel transported to them as well. The mood within the nation and in the rank and file of the armed forces is hostile against opening up the supplies and the government is extremely nervous about the possibility of violent fallouts within the country if a hasty judgment is enforced against the national will. On this issue, the military leadership is also in the spotlight and the nation is expecting them to side with the popular sentiments. The respect, integrity, credibility and dignity of the armed forces leadership is now at stake. Never before the nation and its leadership has differed so violently on any issue before. It is no more a simple question of drawing up of terms and conditions of opening up of NATO supplies alone. The entire social, moral, emotional, political and religious authority of the national political and military leadership is on trial here and the entire fabric of the nation is now violently polarized over this emotional and sensitive issue of siding with the crusaders for killing the Afghan Muslims and on supporting the Af-Pak for a war of annihilation against Pakistan itself.
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US Position in Afghanistan Today:

US is facing a military and political disaster in Afghanistan. This is the biggest US vulnerability. Following points are immediately to be noted: US cannot win the war against Taliban. US need Pakistan for any military or political solution of the Afghan theatre. US remain desperately dependent upon Pakistan for its supplies. There is no alternate to Pakistan. US is not in a position to wage another high intensity war against Pakistan especially without the military hardware stuck in Pakistan. Almost 3500 armored cars, trucks and heavy transport equipment as well as 5000 containers full of weapons, ammo and supplies constitute that invasion hardware. Military The entire US military strategy to suppress the insurgency and resistance in Afghanistan through excessive brutal force and troops surge has failed completely. US officials in Washington have been issuing the statement of improving situation in Afghanistan since last 3 years but situation on ground is entirely opposite. The on ground tactical situation of US/NATO forces in Afghanistan today is a replica of what Soviet forces confronted in the 1980s. Even some American military analysts believe that the situation has gone from bad to abysmal.[3] An acute increase in death toll of the US/NATO forces was witnessed after the announcement of Af-Pak which proves beyond doubt that Af-Pak has destroyed the initial successes against Afghan resistance. Year US UK Other Total 2001 12 0 0 12 2002 49 3 18 70 2003 48 0 10 58 2004 52 1 7 60 2005 99 1 31 131 2006 98 39 54 191 2007 117 42 73 232 2008 155 51 89 295 2009 317 108 96 521 2010 499 103 109 711 2011 418 46 102 566 2012 104 18 31 153 Total 1968 412 620 3000
Death toll of US/NATO forces in Afghanistan.4
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This April Taliban launched the biggest attack on Kabul city hitting multiple targets in an coordinated assault. This attack has exposed the weaknesses and vulnerabilities of the US/NATO forces in the safest city of Kabul.6 Public The US failure in Afghanistan is not limited to the military strategy but the war of winning hearts and minds of Afghan locals have been lost too and the public perception of the US/NATO as the saviors has eroded completely even among non-Pushtun factions of Afghan society. If the military brutalities of the US/NATO forces against the common Afghans were not enough to destroy the credibility and acceptability of the ERFs by the Afghans, the recent incidents like urinating on Taliban fighters dead bodies, burning of copies of Quran, killing of Afghan civilians by American soldiers has done this for sure. No society would ever approve such atrocities particularly the Afghan society where religion and strong tribal values have profound impact on collective thought process and social bearings. 7 Recent revelation of existence of anti-Islam military training courses of Pentagon, like "Understanding the Threat to America", has infuriated not only Muslim around the world but the US troops also think this trend is completely Un-American.8
The failed Petreaus solution -- A Pashtun village -- Before and after
There was no incident of releasing of any Taliban fighter from US/NATO jails before Af-Pak but now it has become a normal trend. During the last two years 20 prisoners, declared bad guys by the US officials, have been released secretly from military prison to cut deals with Taliban. 5
Political On political axis, the entire US scheme to bring a halt in ever expanding Taliban influence and military assaults through political maneuvering is in tatters as situation has gone out of control and new dynamics are indicative that country is going to be divided into multiple ethnic zones as the American forces did in Iraq before leaving it. US desire to bring Taliban on the negotiation table has resented the National Front of Afghanistan (NFA) that was created by Ahmad Zia Massoud, Abdul Rashid Dostum and Haji Mohammad Mohaqiq. It is basically the military wing of the United Front (Northern Alliance) to oppose a return of the Taliban. These developments took place when Americans tried to enter in negotiation with the Taliban bypassing the Afghan government last year. Uzbik and Tajik elements in Afghan government feel threatened by the US desire to bring Taliban in the government. The recent assassinations of pro-peace negotiators, Professor Rabbani and Maulvi Arsala Rehmani, are an indication that powerful players in the Kabul regime do not want any peace deals with Taliban. Taliban are firm on their stance of keep resisting the occupied forces until their complete withdrawal. Karzai is the only hope for the US but he is incompetent and corrupt. Some of the Congressmen are also afraid of the Talibans return and are opposing any deal between the US and the Taliban. U.S. Congressman Louie Gohmert wrote, "These leaders who fought with embed-
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ded Special Forces to initially defeat the Taliban represent over 60-percent of the Afghan people, yet are being entirely disregarded by the Obama and Karzai Administrations in negotiations."9
After these paradoxical complexities, a new scheme is under deliberation in the US to give control of some the selected provinces to the Taliban and keep the Northern Alliance limited to non-Pushtun provinces. This scheme is starkly similar to what Patreas did to Iraq in order to overcome the resistance and now Iraq has been virtually divided into 3 countries; Shia Iraq, Suni Iraq and Kurd Iraq.
Pak US Relations
Right now, the bilateral relations between the two allies are at an all times low. After the Salala incident both the political and military leaderships came under tremendous pressure from the masses and the Jawans to react firmly against the US aggression. Pak-US relations have now turned into complete diplomatic crisis. The US is in panic and once again has decided to use proven carrot and stick policy to force Pakistan in reopening the supplies. With no military muscle or national will available to launch another war against a nuclear armed nation, Psy-ops and bluffs are major tactics being deployed by US at the present. With a corrupt and hungry government in Islamabad, US through it would be able to maneuver its way through but the resistance from the Pakistani nation has stunned both the US and the Pakistani governments.
The US secretary of state Hillary Clinton, while standing in India, accused Pakistan for sheltering Al-Zawahiri, Al-Qaedas current chief. The US initially did not invite Pakistan to attend the Chicago conference on Afghanistan. Though nothing substantive will come out of this conference as the US has already brokered a deal with Karzai government to extend the presence of the American forces on Afghan soil to an unspecified time period after 2014.10 So it will be immaterial what will be promised or said during the Chicago summit regarding Afghanistan and future of US/NATO forces withdrawal. Recently a bill has been moved in House Armed Services Committee of the US Congress which seeks a 90% cut in US aid to Pakistan along with ban on trade.11 Additionally another bill has been presented seeking deduction The most dysfunctional relationof $50 million from US aid to Pakistan on death of every US troop ship between two nations in Afghanistan. Pakistan Terrorism Accountability Act of 2012, if approved by the US congress, would enable the US officials sitting in Washington to decide if a US soldier killed in Afghanistan on the other side of the globe met his fate at the hands of terrorists sponsored by ISI or not. 12 Despite all the pressure and the bluff, the fact is that the US remains hopelessly dependent upon Pakistans help and support for its survival, supplies, withdrawal or peace negotiations. Right now, Pakistans only vulnerability is the presence of the PPP government in Islamabad which is in ugly haste to resume the supplies than protecting Pakistans honor, dignity and freedom. Killing the Af-Pak 96
NATO supply resumption would also have serious implications for the Pakistan Army
Strengthening internal cohesion within Pakistan Army and also between the masses and the armed forces is the most critical need of the hour. And the most audacious aspect of this dirty American war is the creation of a dangerous divide within Pakistani military between the top brass and the junior officers who are giving the ultimate sacrifices in a war to defend Pakistan which cannot be won by military means alone in the absence of political, diplomatic, media and judicial backing and support. Lets consider the following facts also: 1. Pakistan is fighting internal insurgencies in Baluchistan and FATA. 2. In mid to long term, Indian Cold Start doctrine is a clear and present threat on Eastern border. 3. The US is going to stay in Afghanistan for unspecified time period. This means Kabul will be ruled by a pro-Indian and anti-Pakistan government for long period of time. 4. Western analysts are creating the hype and waging a info-war that that security of London Olympics depends entirely on the elements in Afghanistan and Pakistan.[13] 5. Thousands of NATO containers full of deadly weapons have already vanished in Pakistan and those weapons have ended up in the hands of insurgents in Karachi, Baluchistan and FATA. 6.Concealed behind the diplomatic cover, CIA and JSOC are running a parallel intelligence network inside Pakistan, even conducting their own operations of assassinations, sabotage, subversions and terrorism.
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JSOC presence in Pakistan confirmed
7. Afghan resistance does not fight Pakistan and considers the TTP as terrorists but does not fight the TTP as Pakistan does not recognize the Afghan resistance. 8. There is a realization within the top military brass of Pakistan Army about the dual standards and games being played by the Americans in Afghanistan. It is known that US is shifting blame of her failures in Afghanistan to Pakistan.
9. It has been also realized that the US wants Pakistan Army to get engaged in military operations against Afghan Taliban.[14] But despite these revelations there is no change in policy to conduct WoT. Killing the Af-Pak 98 10. Washington and Delhis Do-More mantra continue to put more pressure on Pakistan in order to secure more concession from Islamabad. Under the current threat environment and security challenges Pakistan Army must contemplate on the long term fatal implications of resuming the NATO supply lines without seeking iron clad guarantees over the withdrawal date of US forces from Afghanistan. Resumption of NATO supplies would not only enhance the physical threats to the country under combined 4GWCSD-Af-Pak threat matrix but would also challenge the credibility of the armed forces to protect the honor and the dignity of the nation as well as its own. Apart from that a very demoralizing message would be conveyed within the rank and file of the armed forces which may turn mutinous under the present levels of anger in the forces against NATO and US.
Friends or Foes?
But if Pakistan decides to follow the public sentiments on this critical issue and keep the supplies blocked wouldnt the US/NATO put Pakistan under sanctions and may enter Pakistan again to hunt other Al-Qaeda leaders as they did on May 2nd 2012? Yes, they can. But the issue must be seen in larger context. Pakistan suffers more by being part of this campaign than being away from it. With losses of over $70 billion dollars in material and losing over a 100,000 dead and wounded for being part of this illegal war, no amount of US aid can compensate for the pains of the Pakistani nation. It would be pertinent here to revisit a statement by former US President Richard Nixon. Nixon talked of a statement by Ayub Khan in his memoirs In the Arena, when the Shah of Iran was murdered and died alone in Syria, being abandoned by his American friends, in his funeral not one American came, Nixon recalled the words of Ayub Khan, that the enmity of America is bad, but her friendship is suicide. It would be useful if the present political leadership of Pakistan learn from the experiences of the former Pakistani military President.
Politico-Economic Environment for US/ NATO in Afghanistan

At home, US and NATO governments and their militaries are also in a desperate situation. This is also critical to understand as this economic collapse directly affects the military capability and war making capacity of the US and NATO against Taliban and Pakistan and gives incredible leverage to Pakistan to hard bargain with these ERF. 1. US economy was one trillion surpluses at the beginning of WoT and now it is in more than 14 trillion deficits.
2. US military budget is under pressure and more cuts in spending have been introduced. The 2011 Budget Control Act requires the Department of Defense to reduce its expenditures by about $487 billion over the next decade, $259 billion of which must be cut over the next five years.15 3. Euro crisis has blown out of control due to multiple economic collapses. There is total and complete meltdown in NATO countries. The economic managers across the Europe (NATO countries) are searching for the silver bullet the magic policy pill to salvage them from an imminent economic disaster. Even a country like Germany failed to protect itself from the impact of the Euro-zone crisis.16
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Victims of Eurozone Falling one by one!
4. Britain has announced a military budget cut resulting 5000 sailors of British Navy losing their jobs in first phase of downsizing.17 In presence of these economic indicators from the US and Europe, it will be nearly impossible for them to launch a military aggression against a nuclear armed Pakistan. Furthermore, any such eventuality will destroy the US missions in Afghanistan as well. NATO US are not on the same page as far as withdrawal of forces is concerned. While US has signed a long term strategic agreement with Afghan government to stay in the country beyond 2014, NATO, on the other hand, has decided to hand over the security to the Afghan nationals and plans to begin a withdrawal process by mid of next year and complete it till end of 2014.18 European economies are desperate to disengage from the war as soon as possible. Another war, especially against Pakistan, is not an option for the NATO economies!
Regional Dynamics
Russia and China are not happy with NATO withdrawal in 2014 but their uneasiness stems from the threat perceived by Moscow and Bejing about Islamic insurgencies in Chechnya and Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. Both countries are happy at getting the Americans bleed in Afghanistan while also containing the Islamic militancy through it. But on the other hand, they both do not want to see too much US influence in the region. Russian foreign ministry is not satisfied with the US presence in Afghanistan after 2014 and is seeking explanation of this planned extended stay of US forces in Afghanistan. Russia is also yet to decide if she must attend the Chicago conference or not. 19 Above economic, geopolitical and strategic developments explain that why Americans would not able to attack Pakistan in the absence of the stuck up military hardware and would continue to rely on the 4GW and the Indian elements to keep Pakistan Army busy in protracted asymmetric irregular wars within its own borders stretching it thinner across the entire swathe of the country amid ensuing political, economic and judicial chaos. It is the American desire to cut a supply corridor through Baluchistan to Afghanistan and that is achievable only if: The 4GW reaches its critical stage to create urban anarchy in Pakistan. NATO supplies, weapons and fuel are restored. Indians launch their Cold start to distract and engage the thinned out Pakistan army. Here again, the critical question of restoration of NATO supplies take an added and urgent dimension where a mistake would be too deadly to comprehend. Indian Factor The future dynamics US-India strategic partnership must not be ignored. The long term interests of a nuclear armed Pakistan and the US cannot have any convergence particularly when the Americans are strategic partners of the Indians in the 21st century. Washington is looking towards Delhi playing a larger role in Asia and South Asia to counter weight China. Americans also want India to play a key role in Afghanistan. To achieve both of these objectives, Pakistan must be decapitated (read denuclearized). The US is selling high-tech offensive weapon systems to India to build Indian capacity of CSD on a fast track. The US has hinted to support India in the UN Security Council along with accepting her in the nuclear club.

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India Worlds largest buyer of arms for Cold Start
The US and Indian interests on Pak-China relations converge as well. The recent Gilgat-Batistan unrest must be analyzed with this fact in mind. Despite being tangled in a complex 4th generation war within its own borders, Pakistans Afghan confusion within the political government and military leadership has created an unprecedented threat environment in which the differentiation between friend and foe has been lost due to the persistence with the failed policies adopted by the Musharraf regime which landed Pakistan into the current chaotic situation.
Critical Analysis of Pakistans existing response strategy

1. Pakistan has been unable to stop the drone strikes. Now these drone attacks are igniting hatred against Pakistan among the most patriotic tribes of FATA. Wikileaks have exposed the complicity of Islamabad in these attacks. If Iran can bring down the US drones there must be no reason why Pakistan cannot do the same. 2. Indian presence in Afghanistan is dominating and overwhelming. This is the culmination of epic failure of Pakistani diplomacy with the US over protecting vital national security interests. Appeasement policies towards Washington and Delhi have put Islamabad in compromising position both on Kashmir and Afghanistan. Pakistan offered the assistance to the US in 2001 just to keep Indians out of Afghanistan but after 10 years it is the Pakistan who has no role in Afghanistan while Indian Army is training Afghan National Army. Indians and Americans are dealing with the Afghan factions while Pakistani diplomacy remains inactive, reactive, disoriented and directionless. 3.Army is still fighting a reactive war within Pakistans own borders and taking causalities. It has not been able to dismantle the bases of TTP or choke their supply lines in and from Afghanistan. Islamabads current COIN and counter terrorism strategies are devoid of any realization of facets of 4GW waged by hostile intelligence agencies using Afghanistan as the base area. It is not a military war. It is war strategy to exploit the political, judicial, media, economic, ethnic, linguistic, sectarian, tribal and ideological divides
Final outcome of Pakistans existing anti-terrorism policy
within the target country to create environment of urban civil war and social anarchy where minimal external force is required to mop up the failed state. Controlling the executive, economy, media and judiciary of the target nation is more important than sending in the armies. The insurgents and rebels engage and bog down the army of the target nation while its own government brings about a controlled demolition of the state and the army because of inaction, treason, corruption and failed governance. Yugoslavia and former Soviet Union are classic examples. Armies cant fight 4GW. Only strong government and nations can! Crux of the matter is that installing a weak government in Islamabad was the prerequisite for the success of 4GW and this is exactly what happened as result of the infamous NRO. Pakistan is not in the present political and legal abyss due to the conflict between the TTP and the Pakistan Army rather it is the presence of the most corrupt and dishonest government in Islamabad which is responsible for the ensuing crisis and chaos on every level, collapsing all state organs. 4. As a declared policy, Pakistan has not been able to initiate any direct dialogue or talks with the Afghan Taliban, while the entire world is engaging them directly. Pakistan should have initiated the Islamabad peace process and taken lead in bringing the warring Afghan sides together as it used to do in the 80s. By only following the western and foreign initiatives on Afghanistan, Pakistan has deliberately left the void which is being rapidly filled by the hostile countries like India or US. 5. Pakistan has also not been able to isolate the Afghan Taliban from the TTP due to point number 4. TTP is not facing any pressure from the Afghan Taliban despite the fact that Afghan Taliban do not approve of TTPs war against Pakistan. Pakistan Army presented itself as a nationalist force in the tribal areas where TTP used religion and Pakistans alliance with the Kuffar as pretext to recruit and train fighters and suicide bombers. For the Pakistan army, taking the moral, religious and spiritual high ground was most critical in this war against the religious fanatics and thus taking the help of the Afghan Taliban would have been invaluable in defeating the TTP insurgency.

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6. Pakistan went into the global war on terror without demanding a global definition of terrorism or even defining the phenomenon at national level. Consequently, the difference between the terrorist and the freedom fighter was severely blurred. This diplomatic and political blunder not just haunted the Kashmir struggle; it still prevents Pakistan from separating Afghan Taliban from Al-Qaeda or the TTP at official levels. Till 2005, Pakistan was not able to see through the plans of CIA/RAW but even after the realization it took too long to accept the fact that TTP is an ideologically, politically and logistically separate entity from Afghan Taliban. 7. There is no neighbor of Afghanistan in NATO while SCO has almost all the neighbor of Afghanistan in it except Pakistan. Still Islamabad, during the last 10 years, never tried to approach SCO for playing active role in Afghanistan. Pakistans single axis foreign policy has been haunting Pakistan since its creation but inexplicably there are no signs of any change in this imbalanced foreign policy which literally has turned Pakistan into a US client state. 8. No high level diplomatic engagement with Uzbek and Tajik elements in Afghanistan. It seems like the ghosts of 1990s are still haunting Pakistans public diplomacy approach to Afghanistan which since then remained completely focused on Pushtun faction of Afghan populace only. Afghan Mujahideen groups of 1980s were fragmented on the ethnic lines and since then there have been no real effort to bring Uzbek and Tajik factions under Pakistans diplomatic fold. 9. The critical and core question of what to do with the presence of ERFs is still unanswered. Pakistan is still not debating or demanding the ERF withdrawal from Afghanistan. Before the arrival of US and foreign forces in Afghanistan, there was a civil war in the country but no war had spilled into Pakistan nor there any insurgencies in FATA or Baluchistan. It is the presence of foreign forces in Afghanistan which is hurting Pakistan. Before 2001, there was no Pakistan Army on the western border. No conflict should be protracted to indefinite time without any clear purpose. Despite death and destruction of economy, law and order and internal cohesion Pakistan never mobilized the diplomatic and political means to seek a withdrawal date from Washington. There can be no peace in the region or in Pakistan as long as ERF remain in Afghanistan. This is the core issue which most unfortunately Pakistan is still not addressing. The current discussion in Islamabad and FO is on the fate of the NATO supplies but there is no talk about
The crux of the above facts is that Pakistan has landed into this critically delicate position due to Islamabads inability to review and revise the terms of engagements with US in WoT despite full awareness that Musharaff era policies have brought the country to an abyss. Below is given the current threat matrix which starkly explains what Pakistan did gain through aforementioned strategic blunders during the last 11 years. Enemy NSVAs (TTP and other religiously motivated militant groups) Sub-Nationalists / Separatists (BLA/BRA) Sectarian Groups Political Militant Wings Economic Meltdown Local Media Threat Perceived Insurgency, LICs, Suicide Bombing, Subversion, Attacks on defence installations, kidnapping Category Nature of Threat Political, Military Impact on Pak Army Direct
INTERNAL THREATS
SubConventional
Political and ideological sedition, ability to sabotage the rail and road infrastructure at critical points in Baluchistan Violent fragmentation of civil society on sectarian lines, penetration of extremist ideology in lower ranks of Armed forces. Serious law and order situation in major urban cities Would impact Pakistan Armys ongoing anti-terrorism operations and future preparations. Can lead to a serious cut in funds for R&D and procurements. Media outlets with foreign funding and involvement presenting a hostile view of Pakistan Armys COIN operations. Military buildup in Afghanistan, Direct invasion/Surgical Strike inside Pakistan, Drone attacks, Destabilizing internal security by providing NSVAs with an excuse for their anti-state war behind the faade of Jihad, Psy-ops,
SubConventional Terrorism, Serious Law & Order issue Urban Terrorism Non-Kinetic
Political, Military
Direct/ Indirect
Governance, Indirect Administrative Administrative Indirect Governance, Direct Administrative Administrative Direct
Psychologcal Warfare
Extra Regional Forces (ERFs) in Afghanistan
EXTERNAL THREATS
Conventional, SubConventional
Military, Diplomatic
Direct , Indirect
the legality and morality of presence of NATO in Afghanistan and its implications for Pakistan. Even the terms and conditions set in the new parliamentary resolution are extremely low level and cheap without taking into account the payment of almost $20 billion dollars of arrears in Taxes and unpaid land and air usage charges by the NATO and compensation for over $70 billion in material and economic losses not to mention the 100,000 killed and wounded in the imposed war.
Enemy Economic and Military Sanctions International Media India
Threat Perceived US/NATO can impose sanctions under the pretext that Pakistan Army is accomplice in protecting terrorists hideouts. Massive Psy-ops against Pakistan army to destroy the credibility as a professional defense force. Execution of Cold Start, Coercive diplomacy, media ops, supporting NSVAs against Pakistan Army,
Category Non-Kinetic Non-Kinetic, Psychological Conventional, SubConventional, Non-Kinetic
Nature of Threat Diplomatic Diplomatic Military, Political, Diplomatic
Impact on Pak Army Direct Direct Direct, Indirect
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2012 Threat Matrix for Pakistan National Security
Future Dynamics with Existing Strategy

It is easy to predict the strategic implications of the continuation of current disastrous policies. Not only that the continuation of the current confused and disoriented Afghan policy would intensify the 4GW but it will also strengthen the Indian presence in Afghanistan and her Cold Start Doctrine will advance very rapidly to the operational readiness level. If Af-Pak is allowed to prevail and consolidate itself and NATO supplies are released, there is a clear and present danger of attack on Pakistan from the Western front also by the US/NATO forces in pursuit of Al-Zawahiri this time. This would allow India to launch the CSD even without getting full operational status. India would keep Pakistan Army busy on the Eastern front while the US/NATO would be launching raids and air strikes from the Western front with an additional objective of cutting a strategic corridor through Baluchistan. With existing crisis of 4GW, this realistic situation will truly be a security nightmare for Pakistan army. Factually speaking, Pakistan is on the verge of it already.
The way forward

But despite this precarious situation, Pakistan holds some key cards which if played wisely can turn the tide. No doubt the solution would be radical, harsh, aggressive and rapid and only a strong and patriotic government in Islamabad along with Pakistan army would be able to implement these proposed solutions which, under current threat matrix, are the only way out of this strategic quagmire. So, bringing in a strong, patriotic and dedicated government remains the prerequisite of any way forward. Current regime is a security threat and must be ousted without any further delay. 1. Pakistan will have to demand for exit date of US/NATO forces from Afghanistan and must mobilize all political, diplomatic channels to achieve that. That is a MUST do task and a critical one as well. Killing Af-Pak will not only secure Pakistans western front but would also halt the Indian Cold Start as well. Indians would never dare to initiate a conflict with Pakistan unless US/NATO launches an assault on Pakistan as well or the 4GW crosses a critical threshold and Pakistan Army collapses under the burden of
2. Pakistan will have to aggressively involve in Afghanistan to engage both Taliban and the Northern Alliance and bring them in Islamabad for a peace initiative. Once brought on board by Islamabad Afghan Taliban can be deployed and engaged to neutralize the TTP and Indian assets in Afghanistan as well. Afghan peace process must be led by Pakistan on our terms. Iran and Turkey as well as China would be more than willing to join, making the initiative a solid start for Pakistan and allies. 3. Pakistan Army will have to hit the TTP bases inside Afghanistan in hot pursuit in pre-emptive strikes. War will have to be taken to the enemy. No country in contemporary world tolerates terrorists bases in neighboring countries. Turkey, in August 2011, carried out strikes and raids in Iraq against bases, hideouts, command and control centers, training camps and logistical facilities after PKK took responsibility of a bomb blast and threatened Turk government to carry out more such attacks. [20]It is time for Pakistan to adopt this zero-tolerance policy towards TTP and its infrastructure on Afghan soil next to Pakistani border. 4. NATO supply restoration must be out of the equation. In fact, this military hardware must be seized as compensation for the losses suffered by the nation. Pak army can then raise 9 new armored infantry divisions. Resumption of NATO supply would mean suicide for Pakistan. 5. Indian presence in Afghanistan and their covert war and encirclement must be retaliated both in Afghanistan and in the mainland India. This is the only way to prevent the Indians from pursuing their own version of death by thousand cuts policy against Pakistan through Afghanistan.
Conclusion
AP-Pak must be killed once and for all which would automatically halt CSD which is supposed to be launched in tandem with the Af-Pak after a critical threshold of 4GW is achieved. Last 4 years have been a complete disaster for Pakistans foreign policy which now needs a major paradigm shift in line with the changing geopolitical landscape in Eurasia. Russia and China have become two most important nations for Islamabad to bring about a balance in Pakistans 65 years old Washington-oriented foreign policy. The present scenario is indicative that the critical threshold of 4GW has already been crossed as all the state organs have collapsed under corruption, bad governance or sabotage. Pakistan Army is the only hope left but it is also under tremendous pressure due to the state organs failure. The sequence of steps and strategy which needs to be deployed must keep in mind that no solution or re-
situation. This is what Indians are counting on but once Af-Pak is dead and US/NATO ousted, the entire edifice of 4GW would collapse as well allowing the Pakistan Army to fully focus on the Eastern front. Pakistan is in a position to win this war without fighting it in the actual battlefield as master strategist Sun Tzu said, For to win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill. In case of failure of evicting the ERF or not killing the Af-Pak, Pakistan Army will have to fight hundred battles against impossible odds. If the NATO supplies are released, this narrow window to kill the Af-Pak would be closed. This is the last chance Pakistan has and there is no margin of error!

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sponse can be built without bringing in a patriotic government in Islamabad urgently. Af-Pak must be killed. Army alone cannot kill the Af-Pak. But Army can bring in a patriotic government which can mobilize the nation and support the army to achieve what is considered impossible today. Together it can be done. Must be done. Else, prepare for a meltdown, civil war, anarchy, failed state, invasion and dismemberment. Either the Pak army follow the response sequel we have recommended or be prepared for the fatal sequence prepared by the enemy. It is not difficult to decide if the choice is between a difficult decision and a fatal one. Pakistan Zindabaad. *************************
NOTE: This article was originally published on 19th May 2012.
References
(1) Art of War. Sun Tzu Quotes on Binary quoteshttp://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/s/sun_tzu. html#KW5bbqxihKXrEBVl.99 (2) U.S. Probe of Border Attack Hardened Pakistani Suspicions by GARETH PORTER, Counterpunch, January 26th 2012 http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/01/26/u-s-probe-of-border-attack-hardened-pakistani-suspicions/ (3) Truth, lies and Afghanistan: How military leaders have let us down http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2012/02/8904030 (4) http://icasualties.org/oef/ (5) US secretly releasing Taliban prisoners from Bagram prison, The Telegraph, published May 7th 2012http:// www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/9250475/US-secretly-releasing-Taliban-prisonersfrom-Bagram-prison.html (6) Talibanlaunches largest attackon Kabul in 11 years , Guardian , published on April 12th 2012. http://www. guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/15/taliban-largest-attack-kabul (7) US coalition forces admit Afghan civilian deaths, AFP via Yahoo News, Published May 11th 2012. http:// news.yahoo.com/us-coalition-forces-admit-afghan-civilian-deaths-175053596.html (8) The US military's 'anti-Islam classes' , Al-Jazeera website, Published May 12th 2012 http://www.aljazeera.
com/programmes/insidestoryamericas/2012/05/2012512105527585215.html (9) Afghan Northern Alliance Allies Betrayed by Obama Administration; Meet with U.S. Congressmen in Berlin , January 9, 2012 http://gohmert.house.gov/News/DocumentSingle.aspx?DocumentID=274224 (10) Enduring Strategic Partnership Agreement between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. http://photos.state.gov/libraries/afghanistan/231771/PDFs/2012-05-01-scan-of-spa-english.pdf (11) Reopening of NATO supply routes included in long list of demands: US bills seek ban on trade; 90pc aid cut, Daily Dawn, Published 10th May 2012 (12) Pak 'terrorism accountability' bill introduced in US Congress, The Indian Express, published May 12th ,2012 http://www.indianexpress.com/news/pak-terrorism-accountability-bill-introduced-in-us-congress/948546/ (13) A frontier far away holds the key to our Olympics security , The Telegraph, By Con Coughlin, Published on May 7th, 2012 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/pakistan/9250307/A-frontier-far-away-holds-the-keyto-our-Olympics-security.html (14) Pakistan being made a scapegoat: army officer,Daily Dawn, published May 9th 2012. (15) Budget Control Act of 2011, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BILLS-112s365eah/pdf/BILLS112s365eah.pdf (16) Germanys Economy Is Badly Exposed Analysis by J.D. Foster of The Heritage Foundation, May 10th 2012. http://www.eurasiareview.com/10052012-germanys-economy-is-badly-exposedanalysis/ (17) Minister warns military cuts will go ahead despite spare 8billion, published May 15th 2012.http://www. thisisplymouth.co.uk/Minister-warns-military-cuts-ahead-despite-spare/story-16086456-detail/story.html (18) Russia attacks Nato Afghanistan withdrawal plan, The Guardian, April 19th 2012. http://www.guardian. co.uk/world/2012/apr/19/russia-criticises-nato-afghanistan-withdrawal (19) Post-2014 U.S. Military Presence in Afghanistan Needs Clarification, April 26th, 2012. http://en.rian. ru/russia/20120426/173072042.html (20) Turkey strikes Kurd rebels in Iraq for third night, published August 20th,2011.http://in.reuters.com/ article/2011/08/20/idINIndia-58881520110820 Killing the Af-Pak 108

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All is not Well on the

2012 Brasstacks - All rights reserved

Email: zaidhamid@zaidhamid.pk www.pringit.com/zaidzamanhamid/

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