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Executive Summary Sector Overview Road Rail Air Cargo Shipping EXIM Logistics Warehousing 3PL IT in Supply Chain and Logistics Company Profiles Listed and Un-listed

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This information is confidential and was prepared by Four-S solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Four-Ss prior written consent.

Executive Summary
A decade of opportunities lies ahead
Logistics and supply chain is a close to US$ XXXbn business (US$ XXXbn in 2010-11), amounting to XXX% of Indias nominal GDP. The references stating the sector is XXX% of Indias GDP are incorrect. The sector will grow in line with the GDP to reach a size of around US$ XXXbn by 2014-15, and US$ XXXbn by 2019-20. The sector will need, directly or indirectly, investment of around US$ XXXbn per annum in the 2011-20 period. We believe this indicates scope of greater PE investment in this sector. Amongst modes of transport, road is the biggest segment, with revenues of around US$ 56bn in 2010-11. While commodity trucking is not very attractive, profitable niches exist like express, containerised cargo, and less than truck load. Private sector has struggled in rail, given difficult operating environment. However, given the strong growth potential of container transport, the sector is attractive over the long term. Air cargo and shipping maybe less attractive given the inability of Indian companies to compete with MNC majors here. Amongst business sectors, EXIM logistics, with a size of US$ XXXbn, and XXX% growth, the segment offers is the most attractive segment in logistics. Agri logistics has fast emerged as an area with attractive business economics. With the government intent of increasing private sector participation in agri value chain, this segment will attract new players. We find Indian manufacturing is ready for outsourcing logistics requirements, and demand for contract/3PL kind of logistics services should increase strongly. Leading logistics services are keenly targeting such business.
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This information is confidential and was prepared by Four-S solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Four-Ss prior written consent.

Sector Overview
Sector Size
Exhibit 1: Size of Indian logistics and supply chain sector

A bottom up calculation of various segments within logistics indicates that the sector had a size of around US$ XXXbn for 2010-11. Road transport at US$ XXX bn forms the biggest individual chunk. EXIM services is a large segment as well.

Sector Growth Potential


The sector will grow at a rate around XXX% over the next few years. Applying XXX% growth in 2015, and XXX% for the next 5 years, we get a size of US$ XXXbn for 2015 and US$ XXXbn for 2020.

2010-11

2014-15P

2019-20P 4

This information is confidential and was prepared by Four-S solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Four-Ss prior written consent.

Sector Overview
PE Investments in Logistics in 2011
Date
Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Mar-11

Fund
India Equity Partners Infrastructure India Plc Infrastructure India Holdings Fund LLC Mayfield India and Nexus Venture Partners Warburg Pincus Fidelity Growth Partners Mumbai Angels India Agro Business Fund (IABF), IFC consortium IL&FS PE Rajasthan VC Fund Standard Exhibitered PE

Company
Company 1 Company 2 Company 3 Company 4

(%) XX XX XX XX

($ mn) XX XX XX XX

Apr-11
Apr-11 May-11 May-11

Company 5
Company 6 Company 7 Company 8

XX
XX XX XX

XX
XX XX XX

There were 11 Private Equity investments in logistics space in 2011. The disclosed investment amount was US$ XXX mn, with average disclosed deal size of US$ XXX mn. The biggest disclosed deal size was US$ XXX mn. The logistics funding was XXX% of funding done in services sector and XXX% of total funding done in 2011. Five deals happened in growth stage companies and the rest were equally divided between the PIPE, early, and late Stages. Most of the deals happened in the first half of the year.

Jun-11 Jul-11 Jul-11

Company 9 Company 10 Company 11

XX XX XX

XX XX XX

Company

Buyer

Seller

Invested since 2007 NA NA

Source: Four-S Research Company 1 Infra. India Warburg Pincus Warburg Pincus Guggenheim IL&FS Aureos Capital

Original Investmet $mn XX XX XX

Retur ns(X) XX XX XX

2011 saw three successful exits equally divided between strategic sale and through the open market.

Company 2 Company 3

Source: Four-S Research

This information is confidential and was prepared by Four-S solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Four-Ss prior written consent.

Road Transport
The dominant form of transportation business in India

Freight movement by road in India

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2011-12P

In terms of absolute numbers, the Planning Commission projected that freight movement by road would reach a size of about XXX billion ton-kilometres (BTKM) by 201112. This is assuming an average GDP growth rate of 8% between 200708 and 201112. The Planning Commission has used a multiplier of XX between the GDP and freight movement growth rates.

Unit: Billion ton kilometres (BTKM) Source: Planning Commission, Four-S Research

Size of Road Transport Sector


Express General

We expect road sector revenues to cross $XXXbn by 2020. We have projected the express segment to grow at XXX%, and the general cargo to grow at XXX%.

2011-12 2019-20 Unit: $bn, Source: Four-S Research, Industry

This information is confidential and was prepared by Four-S solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Four-Ss prior written consent.

Road Transport
Growth Drivers
The higher growth rate is for express is based on industry feedback, and the fact that the sectors express caters to, like consumer goods, computers, auto, pharmaceuticals are all high growth segments of the economy. Increasing penetration of modern trade, and changing supply chain practices among users is expected to drive higher growth for express compared to overall transport sector. In the Box: Case study of Express Transport Operator

Competitive scenario
The organized sector is a miniscule portion of the road transport sector. None of the large companies operating including XXX, XXX, XXX etc account for even 1% of sector revenues. Road transportation is a low entry barrier-business. There is a vast population of owner-driven trucks in Indiadrivers who have turned truckers.

Investment Potential

Value added road business has high potential to attract investments In the Box: Case study of investments in road transport companies Revenue Mix Growth Margins Investment Details
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This information is confidential and was prepared by Four-S solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Four-Ss prior written consent.

Key Companies in the sector


Top 20 Listed Logistics Companies
Key Performance Metrics and Ratios
Company Market Cap Revenue PAT Gross Fixed Assets Total Assets

EBITDA Margin (%)


XXX XXX

PAT Margin (%)


XXX XXX

Asset turnover (x)


XXX XXX

ROCE (%)

ROE (%)

Company 1 Company 2 ....


Company 19 Company 20

XXX XXX

XXX XXX

XXX XXX

XXX XXX

XXX XXX

XXX XXX

XXX XXX

.
XXX XXX

.
XXX XXX

.
XXX XXX

.
XXX XXX

.
XXX XXX

.
XXX XXX

.
XXX XXX

.
XXX XXX

.
XXX XXX

.
XXX XXX

Units: INR mn, data for latest financial year, Source: Ace Equity Analyser, Four-S Research

Top 10 Global Logistics Companies


Company Company 1 Company 2 Home Country Germany USA Employees XXX XXX Countries XXX XXX

Key Un-listed Companies in India About the company Leadership Business Lines Investment, M&A Activity Financials Growth Plans

Company 3
Company 4 Company 5 Company 6 Company 7 Company 8 Company 9 Company 10
Source: Four-S Research

USA
Germany Switzerland Japan China France USA Netherlands

XXX
XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX

XXX
XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX

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This information is confidential and was prepared by Four-S solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Four-Ss prior written consent.

Companies Covered
Listed
CONCOR Shipping Corp. of India Allcargo Logistics Great Eastern Shipping Transport Corporation of India Essar Shipping Blue Dart Express Great Offshore

Un-Listes
Safexpress DARCL Future Supply Chain Solutions Radhakrishna Foodland Pvt Ltd Sohan Lal Commodity Management Pvt. Ltd Flywheel Logistics Total Logistics (India) Pvt. Ltd JICS Logistics

Global
Deutsche Post DHL UPS Supply Chain Fedex Corp DB Shenker Kunhe+Nagel Nippon Express Geodis CEVA

and more

Source: Four-S Research

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This information is confidential and was prepared by Four-S solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Four-Ss prior written consent.

Thanks!
The report presents current industry trends and snapshot of all key segments in Logistics & Supply Chain Industry along with profiles of interesting listed and unlisted players in the space. The report is useful for Board members & Senior Management of Logistics companies, PE Fund Managers and other investors. To book your copy, please write to Devendra Deole at devendra.deole@four-s.com or call +91-22-4215 3659
About Four-S Services Four-S Services provides customised business and financial research to organizations across the globe. The company also provides Investor Relations consulting to corporates based on in-depth sectoral and company research. The company has an impressive client profile and a team of analysts covering the key sectors including Finance & Banking, IT & Telecom, Retail, Media & Entertainment, Pharmaceuticals, Infrastructure and Manufacturing amongst others. For further information on the company please visit www.four-s.com
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