Innovation Watch Newsletter - Issue 11.

18 - September 8, 2012

ISSN: 1712-9834

Highlights from the last two weeks...

scientists create a computer model of interacting genes... researchers speed up DNA analysis, getting closer to instantaneous testing at point-of-care... DIY homemade satellites will be launched into space... US airspace will soon be open to civilian drones... extraordinary connectivity is creating a global talent pool and upping the stakes for what it takes to succeed... a new California company is extending outsourcing services to small businesses... Sweden leads the world in making the most of the Internet... hacker spaces create a grassroots high-tech do-ityourself movement... India is on the path to superpower status... the flight of capital from Spain is more than 50 percent of its economic output... Oxfam predicts doubling food prices in the next two decades due to climate change... power generation in the US uses half of the country's water and is vulnerable to drought... an American academic explores the moral responsibilities of robots, and the right of robots to receive moral treatment... Singularity University reinvents itself -- moving from offering classes to being an innovation pipeline...

David Forrest is a Canadian writer and strategy consultant. His Integral Strategy process has been widely used to increase collaboration in communities, build social capital, deepen commitment to action, and develop creative strategies to deal with complex challenges. David advises organizations on emerging trends. He uses the term Enterprise Ecology to describe how ecological principles can be applied to competition, innovation, and strategy in business. David is a member of the Professional Writers Association of Canada, the World Future Society, and other futures organizations.

More resources ...

a book by Dambiso Moyo -- Winner Take All: China's Race for Resources and What It Means for the Rest of the World... a link to the Stockholm Resilience Centre website, advancing research on the governance of socio-ecological systems...a TED talk by Juan Enriquez on human evolution -- Will Our Kids be a Different Species?... a blog post by Bob Herbert on the economic plight of the middle class and a blueprint for turning things around... David Forrest Innovation Watch

He is a member of the Advisory Committee of the Institute for Science, Society and Policy at the University of Ottawa.

SCIENCE TRENDS
Top Stories: A Model for Development: Biologists Create First Predictive Computational Model of Gene Networks (PhysOrg) - As an animal develops from an embryo, its cells take diverse paths, eventually forming different body parts --muscles, bones, heart. In order for each cell to know what to do during development, it follows a genetic blueprint, which consists of complex webs of interacting genes called gene regulatory networks. Biologists at the California Institute of Technology have spent the last decade or so detailing how these gene networks control development in sea-urchin embryos. Now, for the first time, they have built a computational model of one of these networks. This model, the scientists say, does a remarkably good job of calculating what these networks do to control the fates of different cells in the early stages of sea-urchin development -- confirming that the interactions among a few dozen genes suffice to tell an embryo how to start the development of different body parts in their respective spatial locations. The model is also a powerful tool for understanding gene regulatory networks in a way not previously possible, allowing scientists to better study the genetic bases of both development and evolution. Advance Makes Possible Near-Instantaneous DNA Analysis (PhysOrg) - Thanks to work by Reginald Beer and his team of scientists and engineers at DOEs Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, sub-three-minute amplification of nucleic acids (DNA and RNA) via polymerase chain reaction (PCR) is now possible. PCR is an indispensible technique in medical and biological research laboratories around the world. It allows researchers and clinicians to produce millions of copies from a single piece of DNA or RNA for use in genome sequencing, gene analysis, inheritable disease diagnosis, paternity testing, forensic identification, and the detection of infectious diseases. The standard approach to PCR typically takes about an hour, which is a vast improvement over pre-PCR techniques that required days. However, PCR for pointof-care, emergency-response or widespread monitoring applications needs to be faster still -- on the order of a few minutes. More science trends...

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Newsletter Archive

Previous issues

TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
Top Stories: Why Yes, It Is Time for Homemade Satellites (Businessweek) - Here's a fun fact: Over the next year a dozen or so tiny, homemade satellites will be launched into space. They will travel in low Earth orbit -- 140 to 600 miles up, roughly as high as the International Space Station -- conducting a variety of experiments. With time they will drift toward earth until they reenter the atmosphere and incinerate into memories. Sandy Antunes, a former NASA employee-turned professor, has documented the rise of these so-called pico satellites in a pair of books: DIY Satellite Platforms and Surviving Orbit the DIY Way. Antunes also runs a website called Project Calliope, which follows his quest to build a satellite. Antunes has paid $10,000 for a spot on a rocket that will carry his homemade satellite to space next year. The Skies Open Up for Large Civilian Drones (BBC) Unmanned aircraft, known as drones, are the eyes and ears of the US military, providing troops with an "eye in the sky" in situations where manned flight is considered too dangerous or difficult. A decade ago less than five per cent of US military aircraft were unmanned, now 40 per cent have no pilot on board -- from small surveillance craft light enough to be launched by hand, to medium-sized armed drones and large spy planes. But the role of the drone is now changing. Millions of pounds are being sunk into civilian projects -- everything from border security to police surveillance and even transporting goods. This year the US Congress passed legislation giving US airspace regulator the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) until September 2015 to open up its airspace to drones, and Britain is expected to follow suit. More technology trends...

BUSINESS TRENDS
Top Stories: The Globalisation of Work And People (BBC) - What is fundamentally transforming work is extraordinary connectivity. In the near future, at least five billion people around the world will use some form of mobile device to download information, access knowledge and coach and teach each other. Some will have the

intellectual capacity and motivation to really make something of this opportunity, wherever they happen to be born. These people will want to join the global talent pool and, if possible, migrate to creative and vibrant cities. By doing so, this vast crowd of talented people will increasingly compete with each other, continuously upping the stakes for what it takes to succeed. Offshoring: Coming to a Small Business Near You (Washington Times) - Large corporations have been reaping the harvest of profits and efficiency gains from automation and outsourcing for years, but many small businesses, which do not enjoy the same economies of scale, have missed out. That may soon change, thanks to a recently established California company, oDesk. Billing itself as the "world's largest online workplace," the company aims to provide the same kind of outsourcing services to small businesses that big businesses with overseas operations now have, through an online recruiting network linking workers in Jakarta or Mumbai with small businesses in Chicago or Berlin. Because small businesses have been the most important engine of job growth in the U.S. economy for years, that may be an unwelcome development for many workers. More business trends...

SOCIAL TRENDS
Top Stories: Sweden is Tops in Making Most of Internet, Report Finds (PhysOrg) - Leave it to the country that brought us Ikea to make the most of the Internet. According to a new report from the World Wide Web Foundation, the people and government of Sweden are the best in the world at optimizing the Web. The United States ranked second in the index, followed by the United Kingdom, Canada and Finland. Tunisia and Russia were smack in the middle of the list that ranks 61 countries, taking the 30 and 31st spots respectively. At the bottom of the list were Zimbabwe and Yemen. The Web Index is the first to compare Internet usage, access and impact across 61 countries throughout the world Hacker Spaces Offer Havens for Quirky Ingenuity (PhysOrg) - There are several hacker spaces in North Philadelphia, and many dozens of such places have popped up across the country in recent years. This month, students at the University of Pennsylvania will host a competition called PennApps, billed as the largest student-run hack-athon in the country. All this activity has been spurred, in part, by the advent of low-cost tools such as programmable circuit boards and 3-D printers -- devices that can spit out any three-dimensional object by "printing" layer after layer of plastic. Another key driver is the free exchange of ideas and plans on the Internet.

More social trends...

GLOBAL TRENDS
Top Stories: India at Crossroads on Path to Superpower Status (Der Spiegel) - There is no doubt that India feels that it has arrived. Some of its politicians and business leaders believe it has reached a status as a third superpower, alongside the United States and China. On August 15, the country celebrated the 65th anniversary of its independence from British rule with elaborate parades. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, 79, promised: "No power in the world can stop our country from achieving new heights of progress and development." Reasons for the growing pride are not hard to find. Based on purchasing power parity, the economy is the world's third-largest. High-tech centers, such as Bangalore and Hyderabad, have given rise to IT companies like Infosys and Wipro, which are among the international elite in their industry and are now bringing back the computer experts who once left Indian for California to chase higher salaries. The Money Drain in Spain (Businessweek) - Spain's economic crisis has passed another scary milestone, as new central-bank data show that capital flight from the country now far exceeds levels reached in Asia during the worst of that region's financial crisis in the 1990s. Bank of Spain figures show that net capital outflows -- including bank withdrawals and selloffs of Spanish stocks and bonds -- equaled more than 50 percent of the country's economic output over the year ended July 31. That compares with a 23 percent outflow from Indonesia, the country hardest hit by capital flight during the Asian crisis in 1997 and 1998, says Jens Nordvig, director of currency research at Nomura Securities International in New York. "Ive never seen anything this big," he says. "Spain is in a category by itself." More global trends...

ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS
Top Stories: Oxfam Warns Food Prices to Soar Due to Climate Change (PhysOrg) - Staple food prices may double within the next two decades due to climate change and an increase in extreme weather including droughts and hurricanes, the anti-poverty group Oxfam said. Oxfam warned current climate change research isn't

taking into account extreme weather events, which it warned could also temporarily send up prices by a similar amount. "While prices could double by 2030, the modelling suggests that one or more extreme events in a single year could bring about price spikes of comparable magnitude to two decades of projected longrun price increases," said Oxfam. The Drought Could Plunge the US into Darkness (Business Insider) - Virtually all power plants, whether they are nuclear, coal, or natural gas-fired, are completely dependent on water for cooling. Hydroelectric plants require continuous water flow to operate their turbines. Given the drought, many facilities are overheating and utilities are shutting them down or running their plants at lower capacity. Few Americans know (or up to this point have cared) that the country's power plants account for about half of all the water used in the United States. For every gallon of residential water used in the average U.S. household, five times more is used to provide that home with electricity via hydropower turbines and fossil fuel power plants. More environmental trends...

FUTURE TRENDS
Top Stories: Morality for Robots? (PhysOrg) - On the topic of computers, artificial intelligence and robots, Northern Illinois University Professor David Gunkel says science fiction is fast becoming "science fact." Fictional depictions of artificial intelligence have run the gamut from the loyal Robot in Lost in Space to the killer computer HAL in 2001: A Space Odyssey and the endearing C-3PO and R2-D2 of Star Wars fame. While those robotic personifications are still the stuff of fiction, the issues they raised have never been more relevant than today, says Gunkel, a professor of communication technology. In his new book, The Machine Question: Critical Perspectives on AI, Robots, and Ethics (The MIT Press), Gunkel ratchets up the debate over whether and to what extent intelligent and autonomous machines of our own making can be considered to have legitimate moral responsibilities and any legitimate claim to moral treatment. Singularity University Plans Massive Upgrade (Kurzweil Accelerating Intelligence) - Singularity University is planning to exponentially advance itself, transforming from a provider of short supplemental classes into a sort of innovation pipeline, with a rich website and conference series on one end, an expanding array of classes in the middle, and at the other end incubation labs for startups and corporate skunkworks teams, as well as a strong global alumni network, Wired Business reports. The ongoing expansion is meant not only to make the university a bigger

player in the world of business, but also to influence elected leaders and other policymakers, to spread ideas and values from the university to dozens of foreign countries, and to change the way humans are educated at a time of rapid technological progress. More future trends...

Just in from the publisher...

Winner Take All: China's Race for Resources and What It Means for the Rest of the World
By Dambisa Moyo Read more...

A Web Resource... Stockholm Resilience Centre - The Stockholm Resilience Centre advances research on the governance of social-ecological systems with a special emphasis on resilience -- the ability to deal with change and continue to develop. Multimedia... Juan Enriquez: Will Our Kids be a Different Species? (TED) Throughout human evolution, multiple versions of humans co-existed. Could we be midupgrade now? At TEDxSummit, Juan Enriquez sweeps across time and space to bring us to the present moment --and shows how technology is revealing evidence that suggests rapid evolution may be under way. (16m 49s) The Blogosphere... How We Can Bring Millions of Americans to the Middle Class (Huffington Post) - Bob Herbert "What were experiencing is nothing less than an historic generational decline in living standards. Weve obviously been doing something very wrong. My colleagues at Demos, a nonpartisan think tank, have been researching and analyzing the economic plight of the middle class and poorer Americans for many years and have come up with a compelling blueprint for turning this disastrous situation around. It is a program that would require a tremendously heavy lift politically, a great deal of shared sacrifice among America's citizens, and a substantial financial investment in our human capital and other resources."

Email: future@innovationwatch.com