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- NIMETS Contribution in Mitigating the Challenges and Consequences of the Climate Odds in Nigeria

Paper presented at the Nigerian Medical Students Association (NiMSA) Standing Committee on Environment and Population Activities (SCOEPA) at
University of Abuja Teaching Hospital, Gwagwalada, Abuja

A CLIMATE AT ODDS WITH ITSELF

6 7 September 2012

Dr. Anthony C. Anuforom


Director General / Chief Executive Officer & Permanent Representative of Nigeria with World Meteorological Organisation Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) 33 Pope Paul II Street Maitama District, ABUJA

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable development and safety of life and property

Outline of Presentation Background Information and Definitions


Evidences of Climate Change in Nigeria

Challenges of Climate Change


Consequences of Climate Change Role of NIMET in support of the Transformation Agenda of Government on Climate Change Concluding Remarks

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable development and safety of life and property

Background Information and Definitions


Climate plays an important role in human affairs, especially in

socio-economic planning and development in Nigeria.

Climate anomalies (odds) lead to extreme climate events such as floods and droughts, desertification, soil erosion, etc

These extreme climate events have now led to the issues of sustainable development and sustainability of the environment and resources and become scientific discussion in the country.
Climate change has impact on the environment and especially on agriculture and food production, water resources and energy systems, health, forestry, marine resources development, transportation, tourism, etc Nigeria is vulnerable to climate change and there is need to be concerned with, and examine the consequences on socioeconomic and socio-cultural activities of the country

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable development and safety of life and property

Background Information and Definitions

Global warming along with associated variability and changes in the earths climate has gradually emerged as one of the greatest challenges of our time as related to natural hazards such heat wave, hurricane, flood and drought continue to occur in alarming frequency and intensity, with severe consequences on key sectors like health, agriculture and water resources. Notable among these are the 9.5 billion USD losses from the Pakistani flood disaster and the Russian heat-wave and air pollution disasters that led to the death of 56,000 people in 2010. In Nigeria, 20 billion naira was lost to flood in year 2007 alone. Havocs from such climate change hazards have continued in the country as can be seen during the last two years (2011 and 2012). Health related impact of these include increased incidences of epidemics such as cholera, measles and cerebrospinal meningitis.

Background Information and Definitions


Global Warming is often interchangeably used by many as Climate Change; The differences is that while global warming is an overall warming of the Earths surface, based on average temperature over the entire surface, Climate Change on the other hand refers to changes with time in regional climate characteristics, including other weather parameters beside temperature, (e.g. Rainfall) Global warming is described as the rising average temperature of earths atmosphere and oceans and its projected continuation. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about 0.8C (1.4F) with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades. This warming trend is unequivocal and it is being caused by increasing concentrations of Green House Gases (GHGs) produced by human activities such as deforestation and burning of fossil fuel.

Background Information and Definitions


The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere warm the planets lower atmosphere and surface.Carbon dioxide (CO2) like the other greenhouse gases (methane (CH4), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and nitrous oxide (N2O) performs this temperature-regulatory role, i.e. preventing some of the heat energy received from the sun from escaping to space thereby keeping the surface of the earth some 3oC warmer than it would otherwise be in order to allow life-forms to exist. This present extra-heating of the atmosphere arose from drastic increase in the proportion of the GHGs in the atmosphere, through non-eco friendly human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels; coal, oil and gas especially since industrialization, deforestation, landfill, etc.

Background Information and Definitions


Beginning with the industrial revolution in the 19th century, the human consumption of fossil fuels has elevated CO2 levels with concentrations increasing at a rate of about 2-3 ppm/year. An increase from about 280 parts per millions in 1950 to about 345 parts per millions in 1985 was recorded. These increasing concentrations are projected to reach a range of between 535 to 983 ppm by the end of the 21st century. Some GHGs occur naturally, e.g. water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone, while others such as hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) result exclusively from human industrial processes.

Background Information and Definitions


Climate Change Concepts
Climate change is defined as a difference over a period of time (with respect to a baseline or a reference period) and corresponds to a statistical significant trend of mean climate or its variability, persistent over a long period of time (e.g. decades or more). Climate change may be due to both natural (i.e. internal or external processes of the climate system) as well as anthropogenic forcings (ex. increase in concentrations of greenhouse gases);

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable development and safety of life and property

Evidences of Climate Change in Nigeria


(a) Rainfall Rainfall is highly variable in Nigeria in both time and space The interannual variability is shown evident in the Figure below.
Mean Rainfall Over Nig eria

150

140

130

Mean Rainfall (mm)

120

y = -0.0502x + 123.05

110

100

90

RR mean Linear (RR)

80

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable development and safety of life and property

1973

1975

YEARS

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Late onsets of rains in a few places


14
SOK BRK GUS KAT NGU

Late Onset now spreading to many parts of the country


14
SOK BRK KAT NGU

12
ZAR YEL KON KAD

KAN DUT POT DAM

MAI

GUS

12
ZAR YEL

KAN DUT POT DAM

MAI

Latitude (degrees N)

BAU JOS MIN

10
JEB SHK ISY IBA ABE IJB IKE BEN ILO OSB AKU OND BID

Latitude (degrees N)

GOM

KON

KAD BAU JOS MIN GOM

10
JEB SHK ISY IBA ABE IJB IKE BEN ILO OSB AKU OND BID

ABU LAF IBI LOK

YOL JLG

ABU LAF IBI LOK

YOL JLG

MKD OTU OGJ ENU

MKD OTU OGJ ENU

ONT

ABK IKM

ONT

ABK IKM

WAR YEN

UMU OWE PHC CAL

WAR YEN

UMU OWE PHC CAL

10

12

14

10

12

14

Longitude (degrees E)

Longitude (degrees E)

Deviation of 1941 70 Mean onset date of rainy season from the 1911 40 onset dates

Deviation of 1971 2000 Mean onset date of rainy season from the 1911 40 onset dates

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable development and safety of life and property

Early cessation of rains in and around Ondo/Ilorin


14
SOK BRK GUS KAT NGU

Early cessation of the rains now affect many parts of the country
14
SOK BRK GUS KAT NGU

12
ZAR YEL KON KAD

KAN DUT POT DAM

MAI

12
ZAR YEL KON KAD

KAN DUT POT DAM

MAI

Latitude (degrees N)

GOM

Latitude (degrees N)

BAU JOS MIN

BAU JOS MIN

GOM

10
JEB SHK ISY IBA ABE IJB IKE BEN ILO OSB AKU OND BID

10
JEB SHK ISY IBA ABE IJB ILO OSB AKU OND BEN BID

ABU LAF IBI LOK

YOL JLG

ABU LAF IBI LOK

YOL JLG

MKD OTU OGJ ENU

MKD OTU OGJ ENU

IKE ONT

ONT

ABK IKM

ABK IKM

WAR YEN

UMU OWE PHC CAL

WAR YEN

UMU OWE PHC CAL

10

12

14

10

12

14

Longitude (degrees E)

Longitude (degrees E)

Deviation of 1941 70 Mean cessation date of rainy season from the 1911 40 cessation dates

Deviation of 1971-2000 Mean cessation dates from 1911-40

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable development and safety of life and property

SEQUENCE OF EVENTS FROM THE ANALYSES


Rainfall Changes Rainfall Amount decreases by 15 - 20% but rainfall intensity increases by about 10 15% leading to floods Late onset of the rainy season spreading to many areas in the country since 1911 Early cessation of the rains Shorter length of rainy season

Shorter period available for farming


Desertification conditions spreading, etc
Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable development and safety of life and property

(b) Temperature
Without natural greenhouse effect, the mean temperature of the planet would be around 180C (Source of the diagram : UNDP, Samoa, 2009)

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable development and safety of life and property

Industrial development as a major factor in the recent rapid increase in GHG concentrations and in Nigeria the largest contribution is from Gas flaring

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable development and safety of life and property

NON-ECO FRIENDLY HUMAN ACTIVITIES

Burning carbon-containing fossil fuels produces carbon dioxide (Kehinde Ogunjobi 2009)

Climate Change Concept


. Carbon dioxide (CO2) like the other greenhouse gases (methane (CH4), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and nitrous oxide (N2O) performs temperature-regulatory role; preventing some of the heat energy received from the sun from escaping to space thereby keeping the surface of the earth some 3oC warmer than it would otherwise be in order to allow life-forms to exist. Extra-heating of the atmosphere arose from drastic increase in the proportion of the GHGs in the atmosphere, through non-eco friendly human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels; coal, oil and gas especially since industrialization, deforestation, landfill, etc.

Changes in the concentration of GHGs in the last 2000 years

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable development and safety of life and property

Variations of the Earths surface temperature in the last 1000 years

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable development and safety of life and property

Mean Surface Temperature over Nigeria


28

27.5
MEAN TEMPERATURE

27

dT dt year

26.5

26

25.5
1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

YEARS

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable development and safety of life and property

Decadal Changes in Surface Temperature(degrees Celsius) over Nigeria

Changes in Mean Surface Temperature


27.2 27.1 27 26.9
Mean Surface Temperature

26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.1


1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

1951 - 1981 1961 - 1990 1971 - 2000 1976 - 2005

Years

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable development and safety of life and property

Observed Temperature Changes Present day surface air temperature ~27.2oC ~ 2% increase from the baseline period Warming of ~ 1oC is projected during the decade 2020 2030 (BAU) reaching ~28.2oC ~ 3.7% increase from present day value Average surface temperature has increased by approx. 0.5 0.6oC

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable development and safety of life and property

(c) Water Resources

(c) Water Resources


Lake Chad: 1972 and 1987. Lake Chad, which supplies water to Chad, Cameroon, Niger and Nigeria, was once one of the largest lakes in Africa. But extensive irrigation projects, the encroaching desert and an increasingly dry climate have caused it to shrink to 5% its former size

Picture showing the areal view (upper panel) of the fast eroding Bar Beach in Lagos and picture (lower panel) devastation of major road and threat buildings fronting the beach.(Awosika et. al., 2002).

Flooding of Aiyetoro community along the Mahin Mud coast. Flooding results from multiple of causes: erosion (note the shoreline on the top side of picture), low lying topography, sea level rise etc (Awosika et. al, 2000)

Flooding of Ahmadu-Bello Way of Victoria Island on the 4TH of Sept 2008 as a Result of Storm Surge

Lagos under threat

(d) Vegetation Changes in Nigeria.

IMPACTS AND CHALLENGES TO THE HEALTH SECTOR

Already, 1.8 million people, mostly children die every year from diarrheal diseases caused by contaminated water. This is expected to worsen as the climate gets warmer. Death rates are also expected to rise as the warming causes more deaths in summer.
Deaths due to temperature related diseases such as malaria, meningitis, measles have increased over the years in the country due to rising temperatures. Water borne diseases such as cholera have also been on the increase as a result of dirtier air and water. Increases in the risk of illness and death related to extreme heat and heat waves are very likely. Some reduction in the risk of death related to extreme cold is expected. Warming is likely to make it more challenging to meet air quality standards necessary to protect public health, while extreme weather events cause physical and mental health problems. Some of these events are projected to increase. Some diseases transmitted by food, water, and insects are likely to increase. Rising temperature and carbon dioxide concentration increase pollen production and prolong the pollen season in a number of plants with highly allergenic pollen, presenting a health risk. Certain groups, including children, the elderly, and the poor, are most vulnerable to a range of climaterelated health effects.

Pathways by which Climate Change affects Human Health


Modulating influences Health effects
Temperature-related illness and death Extreme weatherrelated health effects Air pollution-related health effects Water and foodborne diseases Vector-borne and rodent-borne diseases Effects of food and Water shortages Mental, nutritional, infectious and other health effects

Human exposures
Regional Weather Changes Heatwaves Extreme weather Temperature Precipitation Contamination pathways Transmission dynamics

CLIMATE CHANGE

Changes in agro-ecosystems, hydrology Socio-economic and demographic disruptions

BAR CHART SHOWING THE NUMBER OF PERSONS WHO VISITED THE HOSPITAL BASED ON MALARIA DUE TO CHANGES IN CLIMATE BETWEEN 1987-2007.

BAR CHART SHOWING THE NUMBER OF PERSONS WHO VISITED THE HOSPITAL BASED ON MENINGITIS DUE TO CHANGES IN CLIMATE BETWEEN 1987-2007.

BAR CHART SHOWING THE NUMBER OF PERSONS WHO VISITED THE HOSPITAL BASED ON CHOLERA DUE TO CHANGES IN CLIMATE BETWEEN 1987-2007.

BAR CHART SHOWING THE NUMBER OF PERSONS WHO VISITED THE HOSPITAL BASED ON DIARHOEA DUE TO CHANGES IN CLIMATE BETWEEN 1987-2007.

BAR CHART SHOWING THE NUMBER OF PERSONS WHO VISITED THE HOSPITAL BASED ON TYPHOID DUE TO CHANGES IN CLIMATE BETWEEN 1987-2007.

COMPONENT BAR CHART SHOWING THE NUMBERS OF


PERSON WHO VISITED THE HOSPITAL BASED ON SOME DISEASES DUE TO CHANGES IN CLIMATE BETWEEN 1987-

2007.

Challenges of Climate Change in Nigeria


Lack of efficient technologies and legislative will in the country to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (gas flaring, emission from vehicles and industries). This has led to shifts in dates for the enforcement of certain environmental laws in the country Inadequate vulnerability assessment of the country from climate variability/change Global economic downturn leading to inadequate financial resources to mitigate the impacts of the changing climate

Low level of education


Communicating scientific information to the public and policy communities is always a challenge to scientists. Existing gap in science-policy linkage in the use of climate information in long-term policy planning process at local and national levels to address responses to future change with focus on minimising climate risks

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable development and safety of life and property

Consequences of Climate Change in Nigeria


DROUGHT & DESERTIFICATION : DESERT NOW COVERS OVER 35% OF NATIONS LANDMASS. FLOODS, STORM SURGES, & GULLY EROSIONS (WASHING AWAY THE COASTAL ZONE): E.G. LAGOS BAR BEACH (1,500m in 1964, 200m in 1976 AND NOW OVER THE ROAD) CLAIMS 20-30m LAND ANNUALLY. COLLAPSE OF ECO ZONE FROM 9 TO 5, AS THE SAVANNA (INTERFACE OF DESERT & FOREST) IS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH. DISPLACEMENT OR MIGRATION OF LARGE NUMBER OF PEOPLE/ANIMALS CONFLICTS OVER DWINDLING NATURAL RESOURCES

Consequences of Climate Change in Nigeria


FAMINE , FOOD CRISIS & WATER SCARCITY LOSS OF MASSIVE LANDMASS AFFECTING AGRIC, TOURISM INDUSTRY

LOSS OF BIODIVERSITY, E.G. WETLANDS AFFECTING MARINE LIVES , FISHING, ETC.


MORE INTENSE STORMS & TIDAL WAVES FOLLOWING INCREASED WARMING
MORE EPIDEMICS SUCH AS MEASLES, CEREBROSPINAL

MENINGITIS (DUE TO HEAT WAVE) AND CHOLERA AND OTHER WATERBORNE DISEASES (FOLLOWING WATER POLLUTION AS A RESULT OF FLOODS)

Consequences of Climate Change in Nigeria


The kinds of consequences that scientists and leaders have been increasingly worried about include:
Coastal Flooding and Erosion: Our 850km coastline is threatened by ocean surges, saline intrusion and erosion. A sea level rise of 2metres will inundate the coast and sack coastal communities.

Extreme Weather and Climate Events: Many scientists believe that the increase in heat waves, episodes of extreme rainfall, and the intensity of storms are largely related to climate changes caused by global warming, and that we can expect harsher weather if the warming trend is allowed to continue.

Droughts and Desertification: Rising temperatures may increase the number of droughts, which will in turn affect food crops and water availability across the country. Many scientists are warning that we may already be seeing agricultural problems as a result of the countrys changing climate. Poverty: Low agricultural productivity and income.
Human Health: Increasing frequencies of heatwaves and more variable precipitation patterns are compromise to the supply of freshwater and increasing risks of water-borne disease
Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable development and safety of life and property

Consequences of Climate Change


(source: UNDP Samoa)
Variability in water supply , quality and distribution. More competition and cross-border conflicts over water resources WATER RESOURCES

Changes in forest composition, extent, health & productiv ity

Erosion, inundation, salinisation, stress on mangroves, marshes, wetlands COASTAL SYSTEMS ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

HEALTH AGRICULTURE FORESTRY AGRICULTURE

Increasing incidents of infectious, water-borne and vector-borne diseases, heat stress & mortality, additional public health costs

Less predictability in crop yield, changing irrigation demand, growing risk of pest infestations

Loss of habitat, species and protectiv e ecosystems, migratory shif ts

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable development and safety of life and property

NIMETS CLIMATE INFORMATION SERVICE (CIS) IN RESPONSE TO THE CHALLENGES Prior knowledge of changes and trends in temperature and other weather and climate parameters therefore constitutes vital Early Warning Services (EWS) for the socio-economic sectors. NIMETs Climate Information Services (CIS)products provides these necessary advisories to operators in all sectors. For example, in the health sector, Temperature Alerts provides guidance on need for the necessary vaccines in the event of outbreak of meningitis. Other CIS products like the Seasonal Rainfall prediction and the Agromet Decadal Bulletin provide guidance on choice of crop species in the event of drought and so reduce health implications of famine and food insecurity. Others products include: The Drought Monitoring Bulletin The Hydromet Bulletin, The Farmers Guide The Annual Climate and the Quarterly Weather Reviews and The Daily weather forecasts

Role of NIMET towards achieving Govt Policies


Poverty Eradication:
The Agency provides forecasts and early warning on impending weather. Such information assists farmers to plan their planting, weeding, application of fertilizers and pesticides, etc. The information also helps the farmer to take necessary steps to reduce risks of losses while at the same time taking maximum benefits of favourable weather conditions to improve their outputs.

Food Security: With seasonal rainfall forecasts and advisories

provided by NIMET, farmers select crops types and species that are most suitable to impending weather. The Agency also monitors the developmental stages of crops to determine the vulnerability of these crops and proffers further advice where necessary

Improved Health conditions:

NIMET provides extreme weather and climate data and in collaboration with our Health Institutions, mitigate the impact of health-related ailments like Meningitis, Malaria, Dengue Fever, Conjectivitis, etc. Also, provides advisory services to manufacturers of confectioneries & beauty products in aid of distribution according to need based on expected weather Conditions for the season of interest
Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable development and safety of life and property

Role of NIMET towards achieving Govt Policies


Sustainable infrastructural and environmental development: NIMET advocates the use of an alternative source of
energy for most domestic activities. The Agency is also involved in research studies that will foster Clean Development Mechanism that will reduce carbon dioxide and other pollutants in the environment. It provides information on the extent of climate change in the country

Better standards of living through sustainable economic development: NIMET is involved in safety in the air,
land and sea transportation through the provision of timely weather forecasts for aircraft operations, ship navigation over our territorial waters and vehicular movements.

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable development and safety of life and property

Concluding Statements
Climate change impact is very rapid over the country and
thus makes adaptability very difficult considering also the fragile economy of the nation. The records of socio-economic losses incurred as a result of extreme weather and climate conditions show increasing trend in the financial losses.

Climate sits at the nexus of the two principal development


concerns namely; poverty and sustainability development

Efforts to better understand the role of the climate on

society and to develop ways to manage climate impact especially through improving climate prediction techniques must therefore contribute to key development objectives.

The country needs further assistance from the developed


countries on appropriate technologies in energy efficiency programmes especially in the area of gas utilisation

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable development and safety of life and property

HEED THE WARNING STOP THE WARMING REDUCE THE ODDS