GeopoliticalshiftinEastAsia:

Mid
Midtermstrategyforforeignpolicy
term strategy for foreign policy
Purwokerto,9July2012
,
y
Dr.Siswo Pramono,LLM
Di t
DirectoroftheCenterofPolicyAnalysisandDevelopment
f th C t
f P li A l i
dD l
t
ofAsiaPacificandAfricaRegions
MinistryofForeignAffairs
Republic of Indonesia
RepublicofIndonesia
Thispresentationispersonalopinion

Economicstateofaffairs:worldincomepercapita

Source:Sindo,BPS,IMF

GeopoliticalShift:EastAsiaandAfrica

NewAfroAsiaAxis
P t R ki & C t i
PortRanking&ContainerShippingLine
Shi i Li
Industry

Energy

Geopolitics of East Asia:

Market and Resources
ASEAN+3
Trilateral summit/FTA?
New Energy Access
((SCO, Russ far east, OZ))
Food/water Security
Potential Hotspots:
Korea Peninsula
South China Sea
Indian Ocean
The Pacific
Local Developments:
India-Pakistan
rapprochement
North Korea
Myanmar
Darwin

TowardnewAfrica

Source:TheEconomist,
TheWorldin2012

TowardsanewAfrica
ThewayIndonesiashouldlookatAfrica

y FoodSecurity:Africahas60%
oftheworldstotalamountof
f h
ld
l
f
uncultivated,arableland.
y Investment:Improving
businessenvironmentand
aboveaverageeconomic
ggrowth(2012top10GDP
(
p
growthincluded5African
countries).AfricastotalGDP
aboveUS$1.5Trillion
y Trade:Growingmiddleclass
with52Africancitieshaving
more than 1 million people
morethan1millionpeople
each.
(Source:Mckinsey GlobalInstitute:June2010,Fadl
Naceroedin)

y
y

TheAfricanrenaissance:
Africanrenewal:sharpdrop
in interstate conflict and war
ininterstateconflictandwar.
Electionsandmovetowards
greaterdemocracy.
The African Agenda::
TheAfricanAgenda
Africandevelopment
initiatives(NEPAD,Inter
regionalfreetradeetc.).
C
Cooperativeprojectsrising
ti
j t ii
e.g infrastructure
PanAfricanism: Thevision
of African Unity
ofAfricanUnity.
Resistancetoneocolonialism
andoutsideinterference
(source:Fadl Naceroedin,2012)

HowreadyisIndonesia?:westeast infrastructurediscrepancy
TotalGDP:US$700billions
Total
GDP: US$ 700 billions
16th largesteconomy
89,6%

23,5%

10,4%

9,6%

57,6%

Pull
Factor
Needed?

Pull
Factor
Needed?

Pull
F t
Factor
Needed?

Pull
Factor
Needed?

HowreadyisIndonesia?:westeast HRDdiscrepancy

StrivingforTraditionalandnontraditionalmarket
TotaltradeinJanuaryMay2010and2011

Traditionalmarket
d
l
k

Nontraditionalmarket

Strategy:
Economicdiplomacytosupporteconomicdevelopment
BilateralStrategic partnership
Maineconomicandtrade
partners, andmainsourceof
capital inflow;
capitalinflow;
Mainsourceofcapacitybuilding
intherealmsofdefense,security,
goodgovernance,economic
institution, education, science
institution,education,science
andtechnology;
Partnersinthecooperation to
addressglobalissues

+
Regionalmarketaccess:

ASEAN(GMS)
TrilateralFTA
SCO
EU
NAFTA
SADC
Mercosur
SAARC

Strategy:
Bilateral strategic partnership + regional market access
Bilateralstrategicpartnership+regionalmarketaccess

Case study:
Casestudy:
PercentageofbudgetofRIsembassiesinAfricaallocatedformaintaskandfunction

No

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Mission

Aljazair/Alger
Kenya/Nairobi
Madagaskar/Antananarivo
Mozambik/Maputo
Namibia/Windhoek
Nigeria/Abuja
Sudan/Khartoum*
Tanzania/DarEsSalaam
Tunisia/Tunis
Zimbabwe/Harare

Total(%)

100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100

Economic
Diplomacy
(%)
70.37
39.05
61.86
61 86
73.54
21.45
46.15
44.30
52.04
33.25
43.20

Protectionof
Citizen(%)

Informationand
Culture(%)

Politicand
Security(%)

29.63
20.78
15.46
15 46
26.46
22.20
5.13
15.66
28.18
16.87
16.76

13.20
22.68
22 68

22.04
35.90
16.72
19.78
37.41
19.66

26.96

34.31
12.82
23.32

12.47
20.37

Dr.Siswo Pramono,LLM
DirectoroftheCenterofPolicyAnalysisandDevelopment
forAsiaPacificandAfricaRegions
MinistryofForeignAffairs
RepublicofIndonesia