Gaddafis Dead: Now the Hard Part for Libya Begins By Abou Amara, Jr.

12/8/2011 @AbouAmara - on twitter Many around the world celebrated the death of Libyas autocratic leader who was responsible for oppressing millions and killing tens of thousands. Moammar Gaddafis death was the culmination of a revolt that broke out against the Gaddafi regime in early 2011, inspired by the Arab Spring. The death of Gaddafi brought with it a great sense of liberation to the people of Libya and provided hope for the future. However, the prospect of a post-Gaddafi Libya presents several pressing challenges for the region and the rest of the international community. First, with over 140 tribes, Libya is one of the most tribal nations in the Arab world. Many of these tribes found themselves on opposite sides of the revolution, fighting and killing one another. Estimates put the death toll over 25,000 people in just six months of conflict. Although the revolution came to an end with Gaddafis death, the friends and family members of those killed have not forgotten. There are some on both sides of the conflict who are committing revenge killings throughout Libya. As was the case in Iraq in 2003, unstable nations that have ousted their leader often show themselves to be attractive grounds for terrorist networks. Libya is no different. In fact, an al-Qaeda affiliate, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), has previously gained influence in Algeria, Tunisia and now in Libya. AQIM has claimed to have acquired hundreds of weapons of mass destruction; possibly including stockpiles of mustard gas and surface to air missiles (MANPADS) as a result of the chaos in Libya. This proliferation of weapons could detract the significant progress that has been made in other neighboring Arab nations. For example, Egypt recently held free and fair elections for the first time since the fall of their former dictator Hosni Mubarak. This proliferation of weapons could stall or retard the development of democracy and increase the probability of continued violence, and deaths, in Egypt. Finally, the National Transitional Council (NTC), which is the interim government for Libya, has laid out a timeline for turning Libya into a constitutional democracy in the near future. However, the NTC does not currently have the capacity to secure Libya in the short to medium term and allow a secure, selfdeterminant, and prosperous nation to grow in Libya. If the NTC is unable to secure Libya and contain sectarian violence, Libya could see many more deaths in the near future. The fear of more deaths in Libya was the reason why the United Nations passed a resolution calling for international intervention and why NATO intervened in Libya in the first place. The international community could find itself in a similar position of having to reassert itself in Libya if the NTC cannot secure Libya in the short term. It is necessary for the international community to call for certain action by the NTC as well as provide the NTC with greater capacity in a few ways. First, the NTC must establish some form of group or national reconciliation commission for the people of Libya. With a plethora of different tribes, with different interests, and thousands of Libyans killing one another during the revolution, the Libyan people

must find a way to put those tough differences aside and establish some form of national unity or at the very leastnational tolerance from killing one another. That is essential to create a stable, democratic, and self-determinant Libya. Second, the international community must be willing and ready to assist Libya with securing the stockpiles of weapons that may have found their way into the hands of terrorists or terrorist networks. Proliferation of weapons in the region will destabilize Arab Spring nations and, may, be a serious threat to U.S. or international interests. This effort may require intelligence sharing, covert actions, and even military forces of some fashion. If so, the international community must be ready to meet this need. Finally, the UN must be ready to support peacekeeping forces in Libya during the time outlined by the NTC to transform Libya into a constitutional democracy. Providing Libya with the capacity to develop a democratic state is necessary to secure the concerns aforementioned. In short, removing Gaddafi took serious effort on the part of the United Nations, NATO forces, the Arab League, and the Libyan people. However, the hardest work for Libya rests in the future challenges it must address and the international community must be ready to step up and assist Libya in their efforts. _____________________________________________________________________________________ Abou Amara, Jr. is a second-year Master of Public Policy (M.P.P.) candidate at the University of Minnesotas Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs studying security policy.