Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| September 13, 2012

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narveker@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Associate anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| September 13, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Export policy on agri commodities to stay: Pawar
The Government is expected to continue with its export policy on agricultural commodities such as rice, wheat and sugar, the Union Minister for Agriculture Sharad Pawar, said here on Wednesday. We are against a switch-on, switch-off policy on exports. The current export policy will continue and I dont see any problem, Pawar told reporters. In a bid to help drought-affected States such as Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Gujarat to implement relief measures, the Empowered Group of Ministers have decided to increase the number of mandals under the National Rural Employment Guarantee scheme to 150 from the present 100. Also, the EGoM has decided to reduce interest rates on rescheduled crop loans to 7 per cent from 12 per cent for this fiscal, Pawar said. Besides, he said the Centre and State would provide interest subvention of Rs 261 crore under a Nabard scheme to save horticulture crops in drought-affected States. (Source: Business Line)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on Sept 12, 2012

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

18000 5431 55.21 97.01 1731

0.82 0.76 -0.07 -0.16 -0.07

3.97 3.93 -1.24 1.73 2.35

2.50 2.03 0.07 3.91 7.02

6.72 7.34 19.54 8.94 -6.68

Source: Reuters

Uniform subsidy policy will encourage hybrid rice

The Indian Council of Agriculture Research (ICAR) has called for a more robust procurement policy for hybrid rice so that benefits to farmers are not compromised. Addressing a panel discussion on Hybrid Rice Prospects and Challenges at the sixth International Hybrid Rice Symposium held here on Wednesday, Swapan K. Datta, Deputy DirectorGeneral (Crop Sciences), ICAR, said that the country needed a uniform subsidy policy for hybrid rice. Delegates from 32 countries, including China, Thailand and Vietnam, attended the symposium organised by the International Rice Research Institute, ICAR and the Directorate of Rice Research (DRR). Hybrid rice can help address Indias food security needs. In order to encourage farmers to grow hybrid rice, we need to develop a uniform subsidy module across rice-growing States, Datta said. B.C. Viraktamath, Project Director, DRR, N.K. Dadlani, Director, National Seed Association of India and experts from Bayer CropSciences seeds business participated in the discussion. (Source: Business Line)

Late surge in monsoon fails to improve drought situation in some parts

A late surge in monsoon has failed to improve the drought situation prevailing in some parts of the country. Agriculture minister Sharad Pawar said on Wednesday that around a third of the country has received deficient rains leaving states such as Maharashtra, Karnataka, Gujarat and Rajasthan in a crisis. "The overall rain deficiency in the country has reduced to 8%. The situation has improved but there are still areas which are severely hit by erratic rains. Sowing and crop condition have been affected badly which may lead to a drop in overall production," he said. Reviewing the condition in these parts of the country, the Empowered Group of Ministers ( EGoM) on drought headed by Pawar decided to increase man-days from 100 to 150 in the rural job guarantee scheme and provide a 5% interest rebate for crop loans that will be rescheduled in drought-affected areas of Rajasthan, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Gujarat. "Banks provide short-term crop loans at the interest rate of 7% per annum. We have decided to extend this to rescheduled loans instead of an interest rate of 12% per annum," he said. He said the overall grain production will be less due to erratic rains. The impact will be more visible in coarse cereals and pulses where the acreage has dropped. (Source: Financial Express)

Australian Chana Production Up by 71%:ABARES

According to the ABARES, Australian crop report (Sep,2012):- In Australia, chana production rise by 70.5 percent to 8.27 lakh tonnes from 4.85 lakh tonnes in previous years. Total Chana production durin 2012-13 in Queensland is likely to rise by more than 140 percent to a record 3.36 lakh tonnes from 1.39 lakh tonnes on record planted area and faourable seasonal conditions Total field pea production also surged by 13.5 percent to 3.88 lakh tonnes from 3.42 lakh tonnes in previous year. However, lentil production fell by 19 percent ro .34 lakh tonnes from 2.88 lakh tonnes in last year. (Source: Agriwatch)

Drought hurt world crops less than many had feared USDA
Searing droughts in the United States and Russia will deplete harvests of wheat, corn and soybeans, the U.S. government said on Wednesday, but global food supplies were not hurt as badly as many had feared. With the U.S. harvest off to a fast start, the Agriculture Department said the country's corn crop would be the smallest in six years and the soybean crop would be the smallest in nine years. But even though USDA lowered its crop estimates for the United States and Russia, they are bigger than expected. USDA's estimates of the corn and soybean stockpiles at the end of this marketing year were also larger than traders expected. One factor: high corn prices have prompted cutbacks in livestock production, reducing demand for feed and keeping more corn in stockpiles. The report eased worries about severe shortages and brought down prices of some U.S. agricultural futures. Corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell to a seven-week low and wheat fell too on the prospect of larger supplies. (Source: Reuters)

Monsoon deficiency declines to 8%, drought fears recede

With heavy rainfall occurring across most of the dry regions in northern, western and eastern India during the past one week, the monsoon deficiency this year has come down to 8% on Wednesday from 22% just a month back. The recent rains, according to an agricultural ministry official, in hugely deficit regions of north Gujarat, Saurashtra, Kutch, Punjab, Haryana and Karnataka is not only expected to boost ongoing Kharif sowing, but also help in transplantation of early rabi or winter crops. The rain in September, also helped retain soil moisture for the forthcoming winter or rabi crops. The recent rains also imply that 71% of the country has got normal or excess rains till now while rest of the areas had received deficient rains. The country as a whole has received an average 724 mili-meters (mm) of rains till Wednesday against normal rainfall of 788 mm. (Source: Indian Express)

Bearish Crude oil Fundamentals Could Weigh On CPO Prices James Fry
Crude palm oil prices may fall as low as MYR 2,450 per ton in the first quarter of 2013 due to the bearish fundamental outlook for Brent crudeoil prices which may fall to $80 a barrel in a 'worst-case scenario'. Higher crude oil production and a worsening European debt crisis could weigh on the Brent crude prices; this may also pressurize the CPO prices in medium term. CPO is also used as a key feedstock in biodiesel production. (Source: Agriwatch) . (Source: NCDEX, Reuters)

India's potash imports to be about 4 MT this yr

World's second largest potash producer Uralkali has pegged India's potash imports at 3.5 - 4 million tonne (MT) in 2012 due to cut in subsidy on phosphatic and potassic (P&K) fertilisers by the government. India imports 100% of its domestic requirement of muriate of potash (MoP), a key fertiliser. The government has slashed subsidy on MoP to Rs 14,440 per tonne for the 2012-13 fiscal, from Rs 16,054 per tonne in the 2011-12 fiscal. (Source: Business Standard

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| September 13, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana October futures bounced back sharply after correcting by more than 9% in the last 5-6 days as traders covered their short positions. The prices in the spot market are also stable. Buyers are said to have been buying at lower levels ahead of the festive season. However, improved rains in the Chana producing regions, making the soil favorable for Rabi sowing may cap sharp gains. The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.62% and 2.63% higher on Wednesday. India's monsoon rains were 8% below average as on 11 September, 2012. Monsoon has recovered across India, especially in Rajasthan, one of the major chana growing states, and may prove beneficial for the chana sowing. However, the overall fundamentals still remain supportive for the prices on account of supply tightness amid festive season demand. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approved the Minimum Support Prices (MSP) for Arhar (Tur) and Moong for 2012-13 season. The MSP for Arhar has been fixed at Rs.3850 per quintal and of Moong at Rs.4400 per quintal marking an increase of Rs.650 per quintal and Rs.900 per quintal respectively. Government released fourth advance estimates wherein it revised upward Chana output at 7.58 mn tn from 7.4 mn tonnes estimated in the third advance estimates and 8.22 mn tn in 2010-11.
th

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 4654 4636 Prev day 0.62 2.63

as on Sept 12, 2012 % change WoW MoM -3.65 -6.37 -2.54 -4.90 YoY 39.88 46.89

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi) Chana- NCDEX Sept '12 Futures

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX Oct contract

Sowing progress and demand supply fundamentals

According to the Ministry of Agriculture 98.2 Lakh hectare area has been planted under Kharif pulses as on 7th September, 2012 compared to 104.4 lakh hectare (ha) same period last year. Rajasthan Agriculture Department states that, planted area under Kharif Pulses is down at 19.42 lakh hectares ha compared to 25.55 lakh ha same st period last year. (Dated 31 August, 2012). Sowing which was down by more than 55% has gained momentum after improvement in rainfall in the last one week and is now down by 24%. According to the Fourth advance estimates, Pulses output is pegged at 17.21 mn tn in 2011-12 compared with 18.24 mn tn produced in the year 2010-11. While Chana output in 2011-12 is estimated at 7.58 million tones, Tur is estimated at 2.65 million tones, Urad is estimated at 1.83 million tones, Moong is estimated at 1.71 million tones. As per the latest release, Ministry of Commerce & Industry revealed that 20.23 lakh tones of peas, 2.03 lakh tons of Chana, 4.32 lakh tons of Urad & Moong, 1.12 lakh tons of Masoor and 4.26 lakh tons of Tur has been imported by India during April11-March 12. Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source: Agriwatch) India's consumption of pulses is on the rise, while the growth in output in not consistent amid vagaries of weather, which may lead to increase in imports this year. However, rupee weakness may turn import costlier.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Chana Oct Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Sept 13, 2012 Resistance 4625-4668

4490-4530

Outlook
Chana futures are expected to remain sideways as improved rains may cap the upside. However, festive demand couple with tight supplies may restrict the downside in the prices. In the medium term to long term, the trend remains positive as supplies may not be sufficient to meet the rising demand of the commodity. Also lower sowing of kharif pulses may support chana prices.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| September 13, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar futures settled marginally lower as improved rains have raised the yield prospects of cane which was earlier expected to be much lower. Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) has forecast sugar production for 2012-13 season at 24 mn tn. This is about 8 per cent lower than 26 mt produced in 2011-12 season and from its initial forecast of 25 mn tn for 2012-13 season. India's monsoon rains were 31 percent above average in the week to Sept. 5, the second straight week of heavier than normal rains, reducing the threat of a prolonged drought in the south Asian country. The Indian government has provided an additional 10 days to sugar mills to sell around 200,000 tonnes of unsold non-levy sugar stocks of August. In the international markets steady harvesting in the centre-south of Brazil, the world's main growing region, has weighed on sugar prices with more supplies expected from northern hemisphere harvests in coming months. However, , on Wednesday, Liffe as well as raw sugar futures settled 0.2% and 1.4% higher amid short coverings.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolkata) Sugar M- NCDEX Sept '12 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3650

as on Sept 12, 2012 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.00 -3.31 MoM -0.62 YoY 20.46

Rs/qtl

3450

-0.78

-0.95

-2.49

26.42

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeOct'12 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE Oct '12 Futures $/tonne $/tonne Last 557.9 438.22

as on Sept 12, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW 0.25 1.44 2.20 4.50 MoM -3.56 -4.92 YoY -25.27 #N/A

Domestic Production and Exports

The area under sugarcane is estimated at 52.88 lakh ha for 2012-13 crop season, up from 50.63 lakh ha on same period a year ago. Despite of higher acreage, the producers body has estimated next years output lower at 25mn tn, down by 1mn tn compared to the current year. Sugar production in India the worlds second-biggest producer touched 26 million tonne since October 1, 2011. Industry body ISMA has estimated 7 mn tn stocks for the new season beginning October 01, 2012 compared to 5.5 mn tn year ago. India may exports 2.5-3 mn tn sugar in 2012-13. India will likely produce 25 million tonne of sugar in 2012-13 factoring in dry spells in biggest producer Maharashtra as well as Karnataka. With the opening stocks of 7 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 32mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22.523 mln tn for 2012-13. Thus, no curbs on exports are seen as of now.

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX Oct contract

Global Sugar Updates

Brazilian cane mills produced 3 mn tn of sugar in the first half of August thanks to dry weather. Unica in its latest report stated said that total sugar output since the start of the crushing season is still down 12 percent from the same period a year ago. Brazil exported 2.06 mn tn raw sugar in August 2012, down from 2.08 mn tn exported in July. The International Sugar Organization said on Friday it expected a global sugar surplus of 5.86 million tonnes in the season running from October 2012 to September 2013, up from the prior season's surplus of 5.19 million tonnes. The wider surplus reflects expectations for a record global crop of 177.39 million tonnes, raw value, up 2.25 percent from the prior season as production in top grower Brazil rises. The ISO said the stocks/consumption ratio could rise to around 40 percent in 2012/13, from 37.6 percent in 2011/12. (Source: Reuters)
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Oct NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl

valid for Sept 13, 2012 Support 3510-3525 Resistance 3548-3560

Outlook
Sugar prices may remain sideways as improved rains have offset the firm market sentiments led by higher festive season demand. In the medium term, although sufficient supplies may keep the upside capped, sharp downside will also be restricted on the back of emergence of fresh demand at lower levels amid series of festivals ahead.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| September 13, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds Soybean: Soybean Futures remained in the negative due to good
monsoon conditions in the key soybean growing regions in MP. However the spot remained in the positive due to low stocks in the domestic markets. NCDEX futures settled 0.33% lower on Wednesday while spot settled 0.97% higher. CBOT settled higher on Wednesday after the release of USDA demand supply report which downgraded further the yield of soybean for 2012-13 crop. U.S. Department of Agriculture pegged the soybean harvest at 2.634 billion bushels, down from last month's 2.692 billion and below the analysts' average estimate of 2.657 billion. Ending stocks next summer were projected to be the lowest in nine years at 115 million, unchanged from Augusts estimate. In the domestic markets, as on 7 September, 2012, Oilseeds have been sown in 170 lakh hectares so far, compared with 175 lakh ha same period last year. Soybean area is higher at 106.9 lakh ha. In 2011-12 season, soybean was sown under 102.9 lakh hectares area and recorded 12.28 million tonne output, down from 12.73 mn tn in 2010-11 season. Soy meal exports fell to 10,005 tn in August, from 165,610 tn a year ago. (Source: Solvent Extractors' Association of India). Soybean exports from Brazil declined from 4.13 mn tn in July to 2.4 mn tn in the month of August. (Source: Reuters) Brazils grain Association expects the number 2 producers of soybean to produce record 81.3 mn tn in 2012-13. Planting in Brazil would commence from Sept. 15 & exports may soar to 37.5 mn tn, beating the 33.8-mn tn record in 2010/11 crop. USDA released its monthly crop report on 10 August wherein its cut U.S. 2012/13 soybean production forecast to 2.692 billion bushels, from 3.05 billion in July.
th th

Market Highlights
% Change Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Oct '12 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soyoil- NCDEX Aug '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 4497 3795 798 787.5 Prev day 0.97 -0.33 0.14 -0.59

as on Sept 12, 2012

WoW -1.58 -5.23 -0.58 -2.76

MoM -0.20 -15.83 2.47 1.29

YoY 115.68 82.54 26.73 31.25

Source: Reuters

as on Sept 12, 2012 International Prices Soybean- CBOTSept'12 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTSept '12 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1741 55.91 Prev day 2.61 1.08 WoW -0.41 -2.53 MoM 8.29 8.61
Source: Reuters

YoY 26.19 -2.43

Crude Palm Oil

% Change Unit
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Sept '12 Contract CPO-MCX- Aug '12 Futures

as on Sept 12, 2012

Last 2818 535.7

Prev day -0.49 -0.59

WoW -2.42 -3.69

MoM 0.25 -3.46

YoY -17.12 15.33

MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg

Source: Reuters

RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Sept '12 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 4200 4075 Prev day 2.44 1.09

as on Sept 12, 2012 WoW -2.78 -6.15 MoM -2.72 -6.88

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil: NCDEX Soy Oil and MCX CPO settled lower by on
account of higher stocks of palm oil. Malaysia's August palm oil stocks likely climbed to their highest in nine months as still-high production offset a strong rise in exports. Stocks in the world's second largest palm oil producer most probably climbed 4.5 percent to 2.09 million tonnes. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for September 1-10 jumped 30 percent to 460,939 tonnes from 354,614 tonnes shipped during August 1-10 Palm oil exports from Indonesia increased by 20 percent to 1.5 million tonnes in July compared to the previous month. Palm oil output is expected to be 23-25 million tonnes, and around 18 million tonnes is likely to be exported. India imported 112,611 tn of refined palm oil in July, down 9.28 percent from June. Total vegetable oil imports in July were 870,328 tn, up from 783,315 tn in the previous month (Source: Sea of India).

YoY 47.89 50.15

Technical Chart Soybean

NCDEX Oct contract

Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard seed spot as well as futures settled

higher on supply tightness in the short term. Mustard output was lower in 2011-12 season. However, on the back of higher returns and improved rains, next years output is expected to be better. Rainfall deficit in Rajasthan has come down sharply due to rainfall in last 4-5 days. It will ensure higher area under rapeseed as its prices are trading near record high level. Sowing of rapeseed starts from October and north-western Rajasthan is the top producing area in the country.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Oct NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Oct Futures CPO MCX Sept Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for Sept 13, 2012 Support 764-769 3670-3735 4000-4065 528-532 Resistance 780-785 3870-3915 4175-4230 540-543

Outlook
Edible oil complex may open higher initially taking cues from the USDA demand supply report. However, prices may witness downside correction on expectations of improved yield of domestic

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| September 13, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Black Pepper
Pepper prices bounced back sharply yesterday after correcting over the last 5 days. Low stocks in the domestic markets have supported prices at lower levels. The arrivals are also reported to be very thin. Traders are buying pepper directly from the farmers. However, the spot prices did not gain as much as the Futures due to lack of demand from the upcountry markets as well as lower demand for Indian pepper in the international markets. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 0.45% and 0.99% higher on Wednesday. th According to the circular released on June 13 2012 the existing Special margin of 10% (cash) on the long side stands withdrawn on all running contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Pepper from beginning of day Friday June 15, 2012. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $8,050/tonne(C&F) while Indonesia Austa is quoted at $6,750/tonne (FOB). Vietnam was offering 550GL at $6,900/tonne. As per circular dt. 29/06/2012 issued by NCDEX, Hassan will be available as an additional delivery centre for all the yet to be launched contracts. (not applicable to the currently available contracts-till Dec 2012 expiry).

Market Highlights
% Change Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX Sept '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 41225 41810 Prev day 0.45 0.99

as on Sept 12, 2012 WoW 0.20 -1.16 MoM -1.51 -1.96 YoY 18.60 16.12

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Black Pepper

NCDEX Oct contract

Exports
According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper in April 2012 fell by 47% and stood at 1,200 tonnes as compared to 2,266 tonnes in April 2011. India imported 1,848 tonnes of pepper till March 2012 and has become the third country to import such large quantity after UAE and Singapore. (Source: Agriwatch) According to Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) exports of black pepper in 2012 are forecasted at around 1,25,000 tonnes. Exports of Pepper from Vietnam during January till June 2012 is estimated around 73000 mt 73,000 mt, higher by 4.3% in volume and 31.7% in value compared to corresponding year last year. Exports of Pepper from Brazil during January till May 2012 are estimated around 13369 mt. (Source: Peppertradeboard). Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 14.8% in the first 2 months of the year (2012) to 8810 tn as compared to 10344 tn in the same period previous year. Imports of Pepper in the month of February declined by 16.8% to 3999 tn as compared to 4811 tn in the month of January 2012. Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. During May 2012 Brazil exported 1,705 tonnes of pepper as against 1600 tn in May 2011.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX Oct Futures Unit Rs/qtl

valid for Sept 13, 2012 Support 42500-42800 Resistance 43380-43610

Production and Arrivals

The arrivals in the spot market were reported at 6 tonnes while offtakes were 4 tonnes on Saturday. No arrivals have been reported this week. Global Pepper production in 2012 is expected to increase 7.2% to 3.20 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.98 lakh tonnes in 2011 with sharp rise of 24% in Indonesian pepper output and in Vietnam by 10%. According to latest report pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.35 lakh tonne as compared to 1.10 lakh tonne estimated early in the beginning of year (2012). Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) On the other hand production of pepper in India in 2011-12 is expected to decline further by 5% to 43 thousand tonnes as compared to 48 thousand tonnes in the last year. Production is lowest in a decade.

Outlook
Pepper prices are expected to trade sideways with a positive bias in the intraday. Low stocks and very thin arrivals may support prices. However, prices may correct due to lower demand at higher levels in the domestic as well as international markets. Also, demand from the upcountry markets is said to be weak.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| September 13, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera Futures traded on a positive note yesterday as buyers were said to be active at lower levels. The arrivals are also low as farmers are not selling their stocks at lower prices. Around 10 lakh bags of Jeera are reported across India. However prices corrected from higher levels towards the end on account of profit booking. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. The Spot as well as the Futures settled marginally higher by 0.04% and 0.07% on Wednesday. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,800-2,850 tn (c&f) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 7-8 lakh bags as compared to 4-5 lakh bags in the last year.

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera SpotNCDEX(Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Sept '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 14848 13890 Prev day 0.04 0.07

as on Sept 12, 2012 % Change WoW -1.58 -0.09 MoM -9.08 -12.68 YoY -3.27 -4.01

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Jeera

NCDEX Oct contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Unjha markets witnessed arrivals of 3,000 bags, while off-takes stood at 3,000 bags on Wednesday. Production of Jeera in 2011-12 is expected to be around 40 lakh bags as compared to 29 lakh bags in 2010-11 (each bag weighs 55 kgs). (Source: spot market traders). According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera in April 2012 stood at 2,500 tonnes as compared to 2,369 tonnes in April 2011, an increase of 6%.

Outlook
Jeera prices are expected to trade sideways. Prices may find support at lower levels. Good rains in Gujarat may cap any sharp gains. In the medium term (September-October 2012), prices are likely to witness a bounce back as there are limited stocks with Syria and Turkey and crop there is 30% short as compared to last year.

Source: Telequote

Market Highlights
Prev day 1.74 1.18

as on Sept 12, 2012 % Change

Unit Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Sept '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Last 5588 6020

WoW 2.12 0.27

MoM 2.58 #N/A

YoY 4.55 21.13

Turmeric
Turmeric Futures traded on a positive note yesterday as farmers are not selling stocks demanding higher floor price of Rs.9000/tn. However, there are sufficient stocks with the traders which have capped any sharp gains. Rainfall in Nizamabad is 15% lower than the normal as on 12/9/2012. Turmeric has been sown in 0.54 lakh th hectares in A.P as on 12 September 2012. Sowing is also reported 3035% lower during the sowing period. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 1.74% and 1.18% higher on Wednesday. No fresh positions will be allowed in respect of Turmeric September 20, 2012 expiry contract from September 08, 2012 till the expiry of the contract. Only squaring up of existing positions will be allowed.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX Oct contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi stood at 8,000 bags and 3,000 bags respectively on Wednesday. Turmeric production for the year 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 90 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs) compared to 69 lakh bags in 201011. Erode is expected to produce 55 lakh bags of turmeric a rise of 29% as compared to previous year. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012 increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011.

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Turmeric prices are expected to trade sideways taking cues from lower sowing figures and lower arrivals. The regulators decision to disallow creating of fresh positions in September contract has also created a fear in the minds of the traders. However, traders also expect fresh export orders in the coming days. Also, lower arrivals may support prices at lower levels. Demand for higher floor prices may also support prices. In the medium term (September) prices may take cues from the sowing figures.

Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX Oct Futures Turmeric NCDEX Oct Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

valid for Sept 13, 2012 Support 13580-13750 5530-5606 Resistance 14100-14300 5730-5780

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| September 13, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
In intraday NCDEX Kapas closed down by 0.88% taking cues from the international market. Also ongoing recovery in monsoon in the key cotton states is providing resistance to the prices. Cotton prices declined sharply in the last few weeks as cotton advisory board in its latest meeting has made and upward revision in the end stocks estimates. Further improved rains in August and higher imports of cheaper global cotton also supported the weak market sentiments. According to the latest report by IMD, India received 9% below normal rains during June 01- August 31. However, reports of above average rains in the past few days in Gujarat, the top producer of Cotton has provided some relief to the standing cotton crop. ICE cotton Futures settled 1.95%% lower on Wednesday as USDA raises its estimates for world ending stocks by 2mln bales in September demand supply report. According to the Weekly USDA report, Cotton crop condition is US is 41% good/excellent as compared to 42% a week ago and 28% a year ago. Also cotton harvesting has commenced in US, in all 4% is harvested as compared to 6% a year ago, versus 5% of 5-year average.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 1012 17410

as on Sept 12, 2012 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.98 -0.59 -0.80 -1.53 MoM -11.34 -3.22 YoY -

NCDEX Kapas Futures MCX Cotton Futures

Source: Reuters

International Prices
ICE Cotton Cotlook A Index Unit Usc/Lbs Last 72.83 81.35

as on Sept 12, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW -1.95 -3.65 0.00 0.00 MoM -0.10 0.00 YoY -34.16 -29.20

Source: Reuters

Domestic Production and Consumption

In India Cotton harvesting commences by mid September from the North Indian irrigated states like Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan. While, in rain fed areas its starts in October. th As on 7 August, 2012, Cotton is being planted on 113.46 lakh hectares; lower by 4.1% compared to the last years 119.13 lakh hectares. However, the acreage so far is at par with its normal area of 111.8 lakh hectares. According to the latest updates by Cotton Advisory Board (CAB), Cotton production for 2011-12 seasons is revised upward to 357 lakh bales compared with 347 lakh bales estimated earlier. Also, on account of cheaper cotton available in the global markets, imports have more than double from 5 lakh bales to 12 lakh bales. On the demand front, exports increased to around 127 lakh bales from the earlier estimates of 115 lakh bales taking total cotton consumption to around 382 lakh bales. Thus, the ending stocks figure for 2011-12 season, that would end in September, has been revised upward to 28 lakh bales from the previous estimates of 25 lakh bales. However, 28 lakh bales is the lowest since 2004-05 caused by robust exports.

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX Oct contract

Global Cotton Updates

Global cotton prices are mainly influenced by China, US and India. China is the largest producer, consumer, and importer of Cotton, While India is the second largest producer, consumer and exporter of Cotton. US is third largest producer and a largest exporter of Cotton in the world. USDA estimated US Cotton planting for the season 2012-13 at 12.64 mln acres as compared to 14.74 mln acres last season (2011-12). Ending stocks were at 4.8 mln bales (480 pounds/bales) with Production of 17 mln bales and exports of 12.1 mln bales were pegged for the season 2012-13. China's 2012 cotton output is estimated at 6.97 million tonnes, down 4.2 percent from last year. China's cotton imports in August rose 48 percent on the year to 305,600 tonnes. Total imports in the first eight months of the year were 3.77 million tonnes, up 123 percent from the same period last year, according to the report by the China National Cotton Reserves Corp.

Source: Telequote

Outlook
In intraday cotton futures may trade sideways with a downward bias as good monsoon in key growing states might put pressure on the prices. If Prices in international market fall further, imports might be cheaper which would lead to higher ending stocks, which might provide resistance to the prices in short term. However, reports of China stockpiling for new season might provide support to the prices in medium term.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April Kapas MCX April Cotton MCX October Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale

valid for Sept 13, 2012 Support 985-998 980-995 17200-17300 Resistance 1023-1030 1020-1030 17520-17610

www.angelcommodities.com