Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| September 13, 2012

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Overview:

Research Team
Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Associate anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| September 13, 2012

International Commodities
Overview
Indian Industrial Production increased by 0.1 percent in July. UK's Claimant Count Change declined by 15,000 in August. LME Copper inventories increase by 0.5 percent in yesterdays trade. European Industrial Production increased by 0.6 percent in July. US crude oil inventories rose by 0.2 mn bbl for w/e 7 Sept - EIA.
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Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 55.21 Prev day 0.1

as on 12 September, 2012

w-o-w 1.2

m-o-m 0.6

y-o-y -13.8

Asian markets are trading on mixed note, anticipating further stimulus measures to be announced by the US Federal Reserve in the meeting to be held in the later part of the evening today. German constitutional court yesterday approved the new rescue fund with conditions there by causing positive market sentiments US Import Prices increased 0.7 percent in August as against a decline of 0.7 percent in July. Wholesale Inventories rose by 0.7 percent in July from previous decline of 0.2 percent a month ago. Indian Industrial Production increased by 0.1 percent in July as against a decline of 1.8 percent a month ago. Manufacturing Output declined by 0.2 percent in July from previous decline of 3.2 percent in the month of June. The US Dollar Index (DX) continued to decline for the second consecutive day on the back of rise in the rise in risk appetite in the global markets which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. The currency declined 0.1 percent anticipating that US Federal Reserve in its policy meeting today might hint for further stimulus measures and keep the interest rates near to zero till 2015. US equities also ended on an upbeat note which added downside pressure on the currency. It touched an intra-day low of 79.50 in yesterdays trading session and closed at 79.72 on Wednesday. The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.1 percent in the yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated taking cues from German court ruling agreeing for the bailout fund but with certain conditions. Additionally, expectations of stimulus measures from US and China also supported upside in the currency. Further, weakness in the DX along with favorable economic data from the country also acted as a positive factor for the currency. It touched an intra-day high of 55.075 in yesterdays trade and closed at 55.21 on Wednesday. For the current month, FII inflows totaled at Rs 1,897.10 crores till 12 September 2012. While year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs 64,966.70 crores till 12th September 2012.
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$/Euro (Spot)

1.2899

0.4

2.4

5.0

-5.7

Dollar Index

79.72

-0.1

-1.9

-3.6

3.5

NIFTY

5431.0

0.8

3.9

0.0

9.9

SENSEX

18000.0

0.8

4.0

0.0

9.3

DJIA

13333.4

0.1

2.2

1.3

20.1

S&P

1436.56

0.2

2.4

2.2

23.6

Source: Reuters

The Euro increased 0.4 percent in yesterday session on the back of positive outcome from the German constitutional court ruling which approved the Euro zone the new rescue fund thereby helping in containing the Euro zone debt crisis. Additionally, weakness in the DX along with favorable economic data from the region is also supported an upside in the currency. It touched a high of 1.2936 and closed at 1.2899 on Monday. French Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.7 percent in August as against a decline of 0.4 percent in July. German Final CPI rose by 0.4 percent in August from previous rise of 0.3 percent a month ago. Italian Industrial Production declined by 0.2 percent in July as compared to previous decline of 1.3 percent a month ago. European Industrial Production increased by 0.6 percent in July with respect to decline of 0.6 percent in June. UK's Claimant Count Change declined by 15,000 in August from previous decline of 5,900 in July. Unemployment Rate increased to 8.1 percent in July as against previous rise of 8 percent a month ago. Average Earnings Index increased by 1.5 percent in July as compared to rise of 1.6 percent in June.

UKs The Conference Board (CB) Leading Index increased by 0.1 percent in July with respect to decline of 0.4 percent in prior month.

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| September 13, 2012

Bullion Gold

International Commodities

Market Highlights - Gold (% change) Spot gold prices swung between gains and losses and finally settled on a flat note on Wednesday. German constitutional court ruling which approved the bailout fund with conditions led to positive market sentiments. This caused prices to gain in most part of the trade but witnessed long liquidation ahead of the decision by the US Federal Reserve policy makers on September 13, 2012. The yellow metal touched a high of $1,746.20/oz and closed at $1,731/oz on Wednesday. On the MCX, Gold October contract also settled on a flat note tracking spot gold prices. However, appreciation in the Indian rupee capped sharp gain in the gold prices. Gold prices on the MCX closed at Rs.31,870/10 gms on Wednesday after touching a historical high of Rs.32,105/10 gms.
Gold Gold (Spot) Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMAPM Fix) Comex Gold (Dec12) MCX Gold (Oct12) Unit $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Last 1731.0 32090.0 Prev day 0.0 0.6

as on 12 September, 2012 WoW 2.2 1.9 MoM 8.0 7.0 YoY -5.6 14.8

1737.0

0.0

2.8

8.4

-4.6

$/oz Rs /10 gms

1730.6

-0.1

2.4

7.9

-5.3

31870.0

0.0

1.3

6.2

12.9

Source: Reuters

Silver
Market Highlights - Silver (% change) Spot silver prices declined 0.3 percent in yesterdays session tracking bearishness in the base metals pack. Weakness in the DX however cushioned sharp fall in the silver prices. Initially gains were witnessed taking cues from firmness in gold prices. The white metal touched an intra-day low of $32.45/oz and closed at $33.27/oz on Wednesday. In the Indian markets, MCX silver prices fell 0.8 percent taking cues from weakness in the spot prices and appreciation in the Indian rupee and closed at Rs. 63,280/kg after touching a low of Rs.61,912/kg in yesterdays session.
Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot -Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (Dec12) MCX Silver (Dec12) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg $/oz $/ oz Rs / kg Last 33.3 62900.0 3395.0 3323.3 63280.0 Prev day -0.7 -0.3 1.3 -0.8 -0.8 as on 12 September, 2012 WoW 3.2 2.5 5.8 3.0 4.4 MoM 19.7 16.1 22.8 19.5 18.4 YoY -18.9 -2.3 -15.2 -19.2 -3.5

Outlook
In todays session, we expect precious metals to trade with positive bias due to upbeat global market sentiments and weakness in the DX. Expectation that US policy makers might hint stimulus measures today and keep interest rates near to zero till 2015. In the Indian markets appreciation in the Rupee will cap sharp gains in the MCX prices. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Oct12 Spot Silver MCX Silver Dec12 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for September 13, 2012 Support 1725/1720 31760/31660 32.95/32.70 62800/62400 Resistance 1736/1740 31960/32040 33.30/33.55 63500/63900

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| September 13, 2012

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices declined around 0.2 percent yesterday taking cues from unexpected rise in US crude oil inventories. However, weakness in the DX cushioned sharp fall in the prices. However, expectations of stimulus measures from US also restricted sharp downside in the prices. Crude oil prices touched an intra-day low of $96.31/bbl and closed at $97.0/bbl in yesterdays trading session. On the domestic bourses, prices declined by 0.1 percent on account of appreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.5,353/bbl after touching an intra-day low of Rs.5,330/bbl on Wednesday. Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
Crude Oil WTI (Spot) Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (Oct12) ICE Brent Crude (Oct12) MCX Crude (Sept12) Unit $/bbl $/bbl Last 97.0 115.3 Prev. day 0.0 0.6 WoW 1.7 1.6 as on 12 September, 2012 MoM 2.8 -0.8 YoY 7.5 -0.6

$/bbl

97.0

-0.2

1.7

2.8

7.5

$/bbl

116.0

0.5

2.5

-0.2

3.6

Rs/bbl

5353.0

-0.1

0.5

2.7

24.8

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas

(% change)

as on 12 September, 2012

EIA Inventories Data

As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report last night, US crude oil inventories increased unexpectedly by 0.2 million barrels to 359.0 million barrels for the week ending on 7th September 2012. Gasoline stocks fell by 4.2 million barrels to 197.70 million barrels and whereas distillate stockpiles gained by 2.5 million barrels to 128.90 million barrels for the last week.
Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (Sept12) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 3.059 168.8 Prev. day 1.76 1.81 WoW 9.21 7.52 MoM 9.92 9.33 YoY -21.66 -8.86

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Nymex Crude Oil

Natural Gas
EIA Inventories Forecast US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories and US natural gas inventory are expected to increase by 26 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending on 7th September 2012.
Source: Telequote

Outlook In todays trade, we expect crude oil prices to trade on a sideways note on the back of expectations of stimulus measures from US along with weakness in the DX. While on the other hand, unexpected rise in US crude oil inventories yesterday will add downside pressure on the prices. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee will add downside pressure in the crude oil prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude Sept12 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for September 13, 2012 Support 96.45/95.55 5320/5270 Resistance 97.72/98.26 5390/5420

Technical Chart Nymex Natural Gas

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| September 13, 2012

International Commodities
Base Metals
The base metals pack traded on a mixed note in the yesterdays trading session on the back of mixed LME inventories. However, sharp downside was cushioned on account of rise in risk appetite in the global markets along with weakness in the DX. In the Indian markets appreciation in the Rupee added downside pressure on the prices. Copper Copper, the leader of the base metals complex declined 0.1 percent on the back of rise in the LME copper inventories by 0.5 percent which stood at 215,775 tonnes. However sharp fall in the copper prices were cushioned due to upbeat global market sentiments and weakness in the DX. The red metal touched a low of $8,027/tonne and closed at $8,076.50/tonne in yesterdays session. On the domestic front, prices declined 0.1 percent taking cues from LME and closed at Rs.452.3/kg on Wednesday after touching a low of Rs.448.8/kg in the last week. Outlook In todays session, we expect base metal prices to trade on bullish note on the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Additionally expectation of stimulus measures from the US Federal Reserve to support an upside in the base metals pack. Appreciation in the Rupee will cap sharp gains in the base metal prices in the Indian markets. Technical Outlook
Unit valid for September 13, 2012 Support Resistance

Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)

Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (Nov12) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (Sept12) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (Sept12) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (Sept12) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (Sept12) Rs /kg 110.3 $/tonne 2014.0 Rs /kg 116.5 $/tonne 2119.3 Rs /kg 920.4 $/tonne 16650.0 Rs /kg 113.9 $/tonne 2080.0 Rs/kg 452.3 $/tonne Last 8076.5

as on 12 September, 2012 WoW 4.4 MoM 9.2 YoY -8.2

Prev. day -0.1

-0.1

3.4

9.1

7.7

0.3

5.9

13.1

-12.2

0.2

4.3

11.0

2.2

-0.8

3.6

8.8

-22.0

-0.7

2.1

6.1

-9.5

-0.4

4.5

15.8

-11.2

-0.2

3.3

11.9

1.4

0.1

6.7

11.5

-8.5

0.1

5.0

8.6

6.3

Source: Reuters

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 12 September 215,775 4,854,325 120,816 930,050 298,400
th

11 September 214,600 4,862,825 120,810 933,100 300,650

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Actual Change 1,175 -8,500 6 -3,050 -2,250

(%) Change 0.5 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.7

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

MCX Copper Nov12

Rs /kg

450/447

454/457

MCX Zinc Sept12

Rs /kg

109.80/109.0

110.90/111.50

MCX Lead Sept12

Rs /kg

115.70/115.0

117.40/118.20

MCX Aluminum Sept12

Rs /kg

113.30/112.70

114.40/115.0

MCX Nickel Sept12

Rs /kg

912/904

927/936

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| September 13, 2012

International Commodities
Important Events for Today

Indicator ECB Monthly Bulletin 10-y Bond Auction PPI m/m Unemployment Claims Core PPI m/m FOMC Statement Federal Funds Rate FOMC Economic Projections Federal Budget Balance FOMC Press Conference

Country Euro UK US US US US US US US US

Time (IST) 1:30pm Tentative 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 10:00pm 10:00pm 11:30pm 11:30pm 11:45pm

Actual -

Forecast 1.2% 370K 0.2% -<0.25% -157.1B -

Previous 1.72/2.2 0.3% 365K 0.4% <0.25% -69.6B -

Impact Medium Medium High High Medium High Medium High Medium High

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