NY-01 Siena (Sept. 2012)

SI ENA RESE ARCH I NSTI TUT E
SIENA COLLEGE, LOUDONVILLE, NY

www.siena.edu/sri

For Immediate Release: Thursday, September 13, 2012
Contact: Steven Greenberg (518) 469-9858
PDF version; crosstabs; website: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY

Siena College 1
st
Congressional District Poll:
Bishop Leads Altschuler by 13 Points With 8 Weeks to Go
Voters See Bishop as Better Representing them on Most Issues
Bishop Leads By Comparable Margins in Brookhaven & East End Towns
Romney & Obama, Each Viewed Unfavorably by 48%, Are Tied at 47%-47%

Loudonville, NY. After winning by three-tenths of one percent in 2010, Democratic Representative Tim
Bishop has an early 13-point lead over Republican challenger Randy Altschuler in a rematch of two years ago.
Bishop has a 52-39 percent lead over Altschuler, with eight percent undecided, according to a Siena College
Research Institute poll of likely 1
st
C.D. voters released today.

Likely voters say Bishop will do a better job than Altschuler representing them on a series of six issues, by
margins of one to 19 points in the district that has a six point Republican enrollment edge. While a plurality of
voters want to see Obamacare repealed, and President Obama and Governor Mitt Romney are locked in a dead
even race, more voters side with Obama than Romney on women`s reproductive health issues, eliminating tax
cuts for those earning more than $250,000, Medicare, and Social Security.

'After squeaking out a tight victory two years ago,
Bishop has an early 13-point lead over Altschuler.
Coming within 600 votes of winning in 2010, this
year Altschuler has the Independence Party line,
which last time provided Bishop with more than
7,000 votes, said Siena College pollster Steven
Greenberg. 'Bishop has the support oI 87 percent of Democrats, one-quarter of Republicans and an eight-point
lead among independents. Bishop has 52 percent support both in Brookhaven and the East End towns.

'Bishop`s 52-39 percent lead in the horserace is virtually identical to his favorability rating and is better than
his showing in the generic re-elect` question where 48 percent oI voters say they are prepared to re-elect
Bishop and 41 percent say they would preIer someone else.` Altchuler`s 39 percent support in the horserace
matches the percentage oI voters who view him Iavorably, Greenberg said.

more
If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Tim
Bishop
Randy
Altschuler
Don't Know/
Not Voting
1
st
CD 52% 39% 9%
Democrats 87% 8% 5%
Republicans 25% 67% 9%
Independents 49% 41% 10%
Town of Brookhaven 52% 39% 9%
Rest of District 52% 40% 8%
Siena College Poll - September 13, 2012
Siena College 1
st
C. D. Poll September 13, 2012 Page 2

'A plurality of independent voters has a favorable view
of Bishop and a plurality of independents view
Altschuler unIavorably, Greenberg said. 'FiIty-eight
percent of Republicans view their candidate favorably
while more than three-quarters of Democrats have a
favorable view of Bishop.

'Jobs is the most important issue to voters and by seven
points they say Bishop will do a better job on jobs. Voters
also rate Bishop ahead of Altschuler by margins of six to 19
points, on health care, education, taxes, and Afghanistan.
On the Federal budget deficit voters rate the two candidates
virtually equally, Greenberg said. 'A majority say Bishop
will better represent their interests in Washington.

Voters with Obama on Taxing :HDOWK\:RPHQVReproductive Health; Want Obamacare Repealed
'By a 49-44 percent margin, including a majority of independents, voters want Obamacare repealed. On most
other issues, however, voters side with the President over Romney, Greenberg said. 'By a two-to-one margin,
voters say their views on women`s reproductive health are closer to Obama`s and by small margins they say
their views on Medicare and Social Security are closer to the President`s.

Obama and Romney Locked in Dead Heat
'While voters tend to side with Obama on more key issues, there are more Republicans than Democrats in the
district. Those facts taken together, along with Obama and Romney having nearly identical favorability ratings,
result in the two Presidential candidates being tied at 47 percent each, Greenberg said.

'The final weeks of the Bishop v. Altschuler race two years ago saw the race tighten from a double digit
Bishop lead to a fight over every vote to determine the winner. Will the race tighten dramatically again this
year? Will Altschuler be able to win back the 15 percent of Romney voters who are currently supporting
Bishop? Will Bishop be able to maintain his lead with the higher turnout of a Presidential election, which for
the moment is tied? In one of the most closely watched races nationally, voters in the 1
st
C.D. can expect a hot
and heavy campaign and millions oI dollars spent on commercials and mail to woo them, Greenberg said.

# # #

This Siena College 1
st
C. D. survey was conducted September 5-10, 2012 by telephone calls to 624 li kely voters. A li kely voter screen was
applied to the sample of registered voters that had been statistically adj usted to reflect party registration, gender and age. It has a margin
of er ror of + 3.9 percentage poi nts. The Siena College Research I nstitute, di rected by Donald Levy, Ph. D., conducts political, economic,
social and cultural research pri marily in New Yor k State. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American
Associ ation of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more infor mation, please call Steven Greenberg at
518-469-9858. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable RSLQLRQRI"
Favorable Unfavorable
Don't Know/
No Opinion
Tim Bishop 50% 39% 11%
Randy Altschuler 39% 41% 19%

Andrew Cuomo 73% 20% 6%
Barack Obama 49% 48% 3%
Mitt Romney 46% 48% 6%
Joe Biden 45% 50% 5%
Paul Ryan 43% 42% 14%
Which candidate would do a better job
representing you in the US Congress on . . .
Issue Bishop Altschuler
Jobs (Most important: 43%) 46% 39%
Federal budget deficit (21%) 42% 41%
Health Care (11%) 47% 36%
Education (8%) 50% 31%
Taxes (8%) 45% 39%
War in Afghanistan (6%) 44% 28%
Representing the interests of
our community in Washington
51% 35%
Slena College 8esearch lnsLlLuLe
SepLember 3-6, 9-10, 2012
624 Llkely voLers Congresslonal ulsLrlcL 01
MCL +/- 3.9
1ota| Dem kep
Ind]
Cther M I 8|shop A|tschu|er 8rookhaven A|| other
Under
SS
SS and
o|der Cath rot Cther
k|ght track 40 71 20 34 38 42 67 10 40 39 36 43 31 40 62
Wrong d|rect|on 32 19 76 36 33 30 24 87 31 34 36 49 62 32 28
Don't know]No op|n|on 8 10 3 10 7 8 9 3 8 7 8 8 7 8 11
1ota| Dem kep
Ind]
Under
SS
SS and
Iavorab|e 30 77 30 48 48 32 86 10 31 49 30 31 43 32 63
Unfavorab|e 39 13 63 40 44 33 6 84 40 37 39 39 43 40 23
1ota| Dem kep
Ind]
Under
SS
SS and
Iavorab|e 39 17 38 39 40 38 12 80 38 41 41 38 47 41 19
Unfavorab|e 41 39 23 43 43 40 69 8 42 41 38 44 34 42 39
1ota| Dem kep
Ind]
Under
SS
SS and
Iavorab|e 49 84 19 48 46 31 82 8 49 47 47 49 38 47 77
Unfavorab|e 48 14 78 49 32 43 13 90 48 48 30 47 39 48 21
I'm go|ng to read the names of severa| peop|e |n pub||c ||fe and I'd ||ke for you to te|| me whether you have a favorab|e op|n|on or an unfavorab|e op|n|on of each of the
peop|e I name.
4. 8arack Cbama
arty Gender Vote Cho|ce keg|on Age ke||g|on
3. kandy A|tschu|er
2. 1|m 8|shop
1. Is the Un|ted States on the r|ght track, or |s |t headed |n the wrong d|rect|on?
Cu01 SepLember 2012 CrossLabs 1 of 10
SepLember 3-6, 9-10, 2012
MCL +/- 3.9
1ota| Dem kep
Ind]
Under
SS
SS and
Iavorab|e 46 13 76 47 30 43 16 87 46 47 47 46 37 33 18
Unfavorab|e 48 82 19 47 43 30 79 9 49 44 47 47 36 44 78
1ota| Dem kep
Ind]
Under
SS
SS and
Iavorab|e 43 81 21 37 41 48 76 9 43 43 39 49 36 44 69
Unfavorab|e 30 17 74 37 37 43 18 91 30 30 33 47 39 32 28
1ota| Dem kep
Ind]
Under
SS
SS and
Iavorab|e 43 12 71 43 30 38 14 83 44 43 42 44 32 31 16
Unfavorab|e 42 74 18 39 41 43 71 6 43 41 39 43 32 34 74
1ota| Dem kep
Ind]
Under
SS
SS and
Iavorab|e 73 86 71 68 73 74 82 63 73 74 70 76 72 73 80
Unfavorab|e 20 12 24 23 21 19 13 30 21 18 23 18 22 21 12
8. Andrew Cuomo
7. au| kyan
6. Ioe 8|den
S. M|tt komney
SepLember 3-6, 9-10, 2012
MCL +/- 3.9
1ota| Dem kep
Ind]
Under
SS
SS and
8arack Cbama on the Democrat|c ||ne 47 84 19 42 43 48 82 3 48 44 44 48 33 46 74
M|tt komney on the kepub||can ||ne 47 12 78 49 30 43 14 92 46 49 49 46 38 30 18
Vo|: Someone e|se 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 2
1ota| Dem kep
Ind]
Under
SS
SS and
ke-e|ect 8|shop 48 77 26 43 43 32 88 3 48 49 43 30 43 47 62
refer someone e|se 41 13 63 43 46 36 3 89 41 40 43 39 46 48 21
1ota| Dem kep
Ind]
Cther M I 8rookhaven A|| other
Under
SS
SS and
1|m 8|shop on the Democrat|c ||ne 32 87 23 49 48 36 32 32 31 33 46 49 71
kandy A|tschu|er on the kepub||can ||ne 39 8 67 41 43 34 39 40 39 40 47 44 18
Vo|: Not vot|ng 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1
Don't know]No op|n|on 8 4 8 10 6 9 8 8 10 6 7 7 11
11. If the e|ect|on for Member of Congress from the 1st Congress|ona| D|str|ct was he|d today, who wou|d you vote for |f the cand|dates were:
arty Gender keg|on Age ke||g|on
10. 1|m 8|shop |s runn|ng for re-e|ect|on to be a Member of Congress. As th|ngs stand now, wou|d you vote to re-e|ect h|m or wou|d you prefer someone e|se?
9. If the 2012 e|ect|on for res|dent were he|d today, who wou|d you vote for |f the cand|dates were:
SepLember 3-6, 9-10, 2012
MCL +/- 3.9
1ota| Dem kep
Ind]
Under
SS
SS and
Abso|ute|y certa|n, there's no chance I w|||
change my m|nd
60 67 36 38 67 33 61 60 60 61 30 69 34 66 70
Ia|r|y certa|n, |t's un||ke|y I w||| change my
m|nd
30 23 32 34 26 33 30 31 32 27 38 24 36 23 21
Not very certa|n, I very we|| may change my
m|nd
6 6 9 4 6 7 7 3 3 9 9 4 7 3 6
Not certa|n at a||, there's a good chance I
w||| change my m|nd
3 2 3 3 1 3 2 4 3 3 3 3 2 4 3
1ota| Dem kep
Ind]
Under
SS
SS and
A|though |t may not go far enough, I'd ||ke
to see the hea|th care reform |eg|s|at|on
fu||y |mp|emented as soon as poss|b|e
44 79 18 42 42 46 78 6 46 42 41 47 36 41 69
I'm |n favor of repea||ng the hea|th care
reform |eg|s|at|on
49 13 73 32 33 43 16 89 48 31 33 46 36 34 26
1ota| Dem kep
Ind]
Under
SS
SS and
L||m|nated 33 76 32 33 33 33 82 19 33 33 32 34 43 31 77
keep 41 19 62 40 44 39 13 73 42 40 42 40 31 39 19
14. res|dent Cbama has proposed e||m|nat|ng the |ncome tax cuts passed dur|ng the 8ush Adm|n|strat|on for taxpayers earn|ng more than 52S0,000. Wou|d you ||ke to
see those tax cuts e||m|nated or are you |n favor of keep|ng those tax cuts |n p|ace?
13. Look|ng at the |ssue of hea|th care and the Iedera| hea|th care |eg|s|at|on enacted two years ago, wh|ch of the fo||ow|ng two cho|ces |s c|osest to your po|nt of v|ew:
12. now ||ke|y wou|d you say you are to vote for [CANDIDA1L NAML]? Are you...
SepLember 3-6, 9-10, 2012
MCL +/- 3.9
1ota| Dem kep
Ind]
Under
SS
SS and
C|oser to res|dent Cbama's pos|t|on 43 79 18 39 41 43 76 7 43 40 40 46 33 39 69
C|oser to Governor komney's pos|t|on 38 6 63 39 38 37 10 73 37 40 37 38 47 39 14
Ne|ther cand|date represents your pos|t|on 14 10 14 18 17 12 12 13 13 14 19 11 13 18 14
Don't know]kefused 4 3 2 4 3 3 3 4 3 6 4 3 3 4 3
1ota| Dem kep
Ind]
Under
SS
SS and
1ota| Dem kep
Ind]
Under
SS
SS and
17. Imp|ement|ng comprehens|ve |mm|grat|on po||cy
16. Insur|ng the |ong-term so|vency of the Soc|a| Secur|ty System
1S. Safeguard|ng Med|care for current and future sen|ors
Ior each of the fo||ow|ng other po||t|ca| |ssues that have been |n the news |ate|y, te|| me whether your pos|t|on |s c|oser to that of res|dent Cbama's pos|t|on or that of
Governor komney or |f ne|ther cand|date tru|y represents your pos|t|on on th|s |ssue.
SepLember 3-6, 9-10, 2012
MCL +/- 3.9
1ota| Dem kep
Ind]
Under
SS
SS and
1ota| Dem kep
Ind]
Under
SS
SS and
Seen or heard 8|shop commerc|a| 33 27 38 31 38 28 29 39 34 31 30 33 31 38 33
8een contacted by the 8|shop campa|gn 12 14 12 12 14 11 13 12 12 14 12 13 13 9 13
8oth 31 31 27 33 26 33 32 28 29 33 29 32 29 32 31
Ne|ther 24 27 23 22 22 26 26 21 23 21 29 20 26 21 22
1ota| Dem kep
Ind]
Under
SS
SS and
Seen or heard A|tschu|er commerc|a| 37 40 39 34 41 34 33 42 39 33 33 41 33 39 42
8een contacted by the A|tschu|er campa|gn 10 10 8 12 11 8 11 9 10 9 10 9 9 10 11
8oth 23 14 28 33 21 29 23 27 23 26 24 26 26 27 21
Ne|ther 27 36 23 20 23 29 31 21 26 29 32 23 29 23 24
20. nave you seen or heard any commerc|a|s for kandy A|tschu|er or been contacted by the A|tschu|er campa|gn?
19. nave you seen or heard any commerc|a|s for 1|m 8|shop or been contacted by the 8|shop campa|gn?
18. Address|ng women's reproduct|ve hea|th
SepLember 3-6, 9-10, 2012
MCL +/- 3.9
1ota| Dem kep
Ind]
Under
SS
SS and
nea|th care 11 16 6 11 8 14 14 6 12 10 9 13 10 11 13
Lducat|on 8 13 6 6 3 10 11 2 7 9 11 6 8 8 10
Iobs 43 43 43 40 44 42 49 39 42 43 44 42 43 41 46
1axes 8 6 9 8 9 7 3 12 9 3 8 8 8 9 7
1he federa| budget def|c|t 21 11 26 23 23 17 10 33 21 20 21 21 23 23 12
1he war |n Afghan|stan 6 7 3 7 3 7 8 3 6 6 6 6 7 6 3
Cther 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1ota| Dem kep
Ind]
Under
SS
SS and
1|m 8|shop 47 82 23 43 47 47 86 4 48 43 43 49 39 47 68
kandy A|tschu|er 36 9 60 37 41 31 3 84 36 36 33 37 44 36 18
1ota| Dem kep
Ind]
Under
SS
SS and
1|m 8|shop 30 81 29 43 31 30 87 9 31 48 48 32 43 48 66
kandy A|tschu|er 31 8 31 33 36 26 2 73 31 31 29 33 39 32 12
23. Lducat|on
22. nea|th Care
Cn each of the fo||ow|ng |ssues, I'd ||ke you to te|| me who you th|nk wou|d do a better [ob represent|ng you |n the Un|ted States Congress.
21. Cf the fo||ow|ng |ssues, wh|ch s|ng|e |ssue |s the most |mportant one you want your Member of Congress to be work|ng on |n Wash|ngton:
SepLember 3-6, 9-10, 2012
MCL +/- 3.9
1ota| Dem kep
Ind]
Under
SS
SS and
1|m 8|shop 46 80 22 42 43 47 84 4 47 43 43 48 40 41 66
kandy A|tschu|er 39 10 64 41 44 33 4 89 38 40 40 38 46 47 17
1ota| Dem kep
Ind]
Under
SS
SS and
1|m 8|shop 43 81 21 40 44 46 81 6 47 42 43 47 38 42 66
kandy A|tschu|er 39 9 64 42 46 33 7 84 38 40 40 38 46 44 18
1ota| Dem kep
Ind]
Under
SS
SS and
1|m 8|shop 42 76 20 36 39 43 79 2 42 42 40 44 33 38 63
kandy A|tschu|er 41 10 63 43 48 33 6 90 41 41 41 41 48 47 20
1ota| Dem kep
Ind]
Under
SS
SS and
1|m 8|shop 44 73 22 41 43 42 73 8 43 41 44 43 36 43 64
kandy A|tschu|er 28 6 30 27 32 24 3 63 27 30 23 31 33 29 10
27. 1he war |n Afghan|stan
26. Iedera| budget def|c|t
2S. 1axes
24. Iobs
SepLember 3-6, 9-10, 2012
MCL +/- 3.9
1ota| Dem kep
Ind]
Under
SS
SS and
1|m 8|shop 31 84 27 47 48 33 90 7 30 32 49 32 43 30 70
kandy A|tschu|er 33 7 39 36 39 31 2 83 33 33 34 36 42 39 16
1ota| Dem kep
Ind]
Under
SS
SS and
kepub||cans 48 11 79 49 31 43 13 91 48 47 30 46 36 49 24
Democrats 47 83 18 44 43 49 83 6 47 47 44 49 38 43 71
29. Current|y the kepub||cans have a ma[or|ty |n the U.S. nouse of kepresentat|ves. Lvery seat |s up for e|ect|on |n November. Wou|d you ||ke to see the kepub||cans
reta|n contro| of the nouse or wou|d you prefer to see the Democrats take contro| of the house?
28. kepresent|ng the |nterests of our commun|ty |n Wash|ngton
SepLember 3-6, 9-10, 2012
MCL +/- 3.9
arty
Democrat 29
kepub||can 34
Independent]Cther 34
keg|on
8rookhaven 66
A|| other 34
ke||g|on
Catho||c 34
rotestant 20
Cther 24
Age
Under SS 43
SS and o|der 33
Gender
Ma|e 47
Iema|e 33
Nature of the Samp|e
New ork State L|ke|y Voters
Congress|ona| D|str|ct 01

NY-01 Siena (Sept. 2012)

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SI ENA RESE ARCH I NSTI TUT E

SIENA COLLEGE, LOUDONVILLE, NY

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