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Background

CARBON STOCK ANALYSIS IN PAPUA

By : Dr. Hendri Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC), Hiroshima University Faculty of Forestry, The State University of Papua (Unipa)

Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2010)

9.10.5 PgC y-1 5.00.2 PgC y-1

50%

0.90.7 PgC y-1

2.61.0 PgC y-1

26%
Calculated as the residual of all other flux components

24%
Workshop on Indonesia REDD+ Preparedness for Tropical Forest Management on September 17th 2012 at IPB, Bogor
Developing Countries

2.40.5 PgC y-1

Average of 5 models

Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Qur et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

Estimated Indonesian Emissions

International Scheme To Reduce GHGs Mitigation Option

CDM through Kyoto Protocol (2012) REDD+ (Post-Kyoto Protocol ~ )
the 13th Conference of the Parties (COP-13) in 2007, the Bali Action Plan, REDD Continue.COP 14th (Poznan, Poland) COP 15th (Copenhagen, Denmark) COP 16th (Cancun, Mexico) REDD+ COP 17th (Duban, South Africa) COP 18th (Qatar) .next At the September 2009 G-20 summit in Pittsburgh, Indonesia committed to reduce carbon emissions by 26 percent compared to BAU by 2020

Initiative (PES)

Histories

Pilot Project

source: Indonesia GHG Abatement Cost Curve, 2009

Phase 1, National REDD+ strategy development, capacity building, institutional strengthening (readiness) Phase 2, Implementation of National REDD+ included reference level setting as BAU, MRV, and participation of indigenous people or local communities. Phase 3, Quantified changes in GHG (emissions or removals) - > market

REDD+ Definition

Potential REDD+ in Papua

Papua Island is the third largest tropical rainforest in the world.
Amazon (958 million ha), Congo (181 million ha) and Papua Island (68.7 million ha) ------Papua (57%) and Papua New Guinea (43%) Mega-biodiversity

The island is subjected to high deforestation rate (0.6 million ha, 2000-2005). Save our rainforests !!! (to protect mega-biodiversity in the Sahul shelf, to prevent
erosion (upstream area), atmospheric circulation, and climate) policy --decentralization, regulation, capacity building, and funding (national & international ---Reduction Emission from Deforestation and Degradation, REDD+) Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) So far, lag study of data inventory (carbon stocks) has been conducted to improve knowledge of endemic and unique species in the Sahul shelf.

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Large and Consistent Global Forest Carbon Sink

Land Use Change in Papua (2000-2009)

Categories
Water Cloud Shrub Shrub (Peat Area) Primary Mangrove Forests Secondary Mangrove Forests Primary Forests Primary Peat Forests Secondary Peat Forest Secondary Dry Land Forests Plantation Mix Dry Land Agriculture Estate Sattlement Area Dry Land Agriculture Swamp Area Savana Paddy Field Fallow Area Fishpond Transmigration Area Minning Airport Total

2000
0.1231 1.0881 0.9145 1.0711 1.1965 0.0666 17.1614 4.1982 0.4607 3.6664 0.0029 0.7552 0.0526 0.0488 0.0596 0.4602 1.3186 0.0105 0.4517 0.0004 0.071 0.0079 0.0010 33.1870

2006
0.1262 0.8477 0.9155 1.0927 1.2650 0.0706 16.4254 4.0908 0.5238 4.5541 0.0029 0.7570 0.0606 0.0520 0.0601 0.4506 1.3030 0.0105 0.4982 0.0004 0.0711 0.0079 0.0009 33.1870

2009
0.5095 0.0205 0.9994 1.2199 0.7250 0.2624 14.6548 3.7325 0.9461 5.8015 0.0022 1.0757 0.0976 0.0495 0.0906 0.8366 1.5025 0.0154 0.5416 0.0005 0.0909 0.0112 0.0012 33.1870

Change(%)
75.8378 8.4947 12.1946 -65.0375 74.6201 -17.1044 -12.4758 51.3031 36.8021 -31.6514 29.7954 46.1289 1.3315 34.2030 44.9937 12.2418 31.7450 16.5920 20.7664 21.8971 29.4074 16.1129

Pan et al. 2011, Science

Source: Ministry of Forestry (MoF) Million Ha --- based on Landsat TM+ Enhancement How much carbon will still keep/storage if we Conservation reducing deforestation and degradation ?????

Climate

Leaves

Objective

Little Branches

Above-ground Biomass (AGB)

Branches

Stem
Necromass dead tree (N t) Necromass dead leaves (Nl) Litter (L), 5 cm

Under-storey Biomass (Bu)

Below-ground Biomass (BGB)

Roots

Roots

Soil (S), up to 1 m

First Step (Initialization)

To provide carbon stocks data in tree system carbon stocks (AGB, BGB, necromass, litter and soil) sampling using reference allometric equation. To improve the equations for AGB and BGB (new allometric equation) by destructive sampling in low disturbance areas of logged-over secondary forests. To develop carbon dynamic vegetation for long time simulation.

Second Step (Improvement)

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Study Area

Terms of Community Forests

Regency Fak-Fak Wondama Bintuni Bay Community Forests Monoculture Simple agroforest Monoculture Simple agroforest Monoculture Simple agroforest Monoculture Simple agroforest Monoculture Simple agroforest Monoculture Simple agroforest Monoculture Simple agroforest Species teak teak durian + pala merbau merbau duku + pinang + matoa merbau merbau durian + pinang + matoa merbau merbau durian + pinang + rambutan teak teak durian + rambutan teak teak hazelnut +durian + rambutan teak teak hazelnut + pinang + rambutan

Manokwari

Sorong South of Sorong

Sorong City

Merbau (endemic species) Vs Teak (introduced species)

Sampling sites in the lowland area in the Manokwari, West Papua, Indonesia
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Extent of the Study Area

Terms of Lifetime Plantation (years)

Land Use Types Lifetime Agriculture (paddy field) season Oil palm plantation 25 yr Shifting cultivation season+agroforestry (5 yr) Critical land in burned area season Traditional agroforestry-cacao 5 yr Ex. cacao plantation 20 yr Transmigration area season+agroforestry (5 yr) Succession area 10 yr Secondary logged-over forests 20 yr Natural mangrove forests > 100 yr Natural peat forests > 100 yr Natural low land forests > 100 yr Community forests 10 yr

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Methodology Non-destructive Sampling (Survey + Data) Destructive Sampling Laboratory Analysis Statistical Analysis
Permanent Demplot (Monitoring & Verification)

PROMOTE
Local Institution (FORDA + University)
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Methodology --- Non-destructive Sampling

Sampling site , 1 ha plot plot plot plot plot

Methodology --- Non-destructive Sampling

Only measure with using equipment and allometric equation based on the other regions of Indonesia (Sumatra. Kalimantan (Borneo), Sulawesi (Celebes)) AGB = exp (-2.557 + 0.940 ln (w. D2. H)), Chave et al. (2005) BGB = exp (-1.0587 + 0.8836 ln (AGB)), Cairns et al. (1997) TB = AGB.f.c + BGB.f.c TBcomplex = TB.cf + Bu + Nl + Nt where AGB (Above-ground Biomass, in kg/ tree) BGB (Below-ground Biomass, in kg/ tree) TB (Total Biomass, in t/ ha), TBcomplex (in tC/ha) f (population per unit area, trees/ ha) c (a non-dimensional conversion factor from kg to ton) cf (a non-dimensional conversion factor from carbon content) w (wood density, in g/ cm3) D (Diameter, DBH in cm) H (Total Height, in m) Bu (Under-storey Biomass, in tC/ ha) Nl (Necromass dead leaves, in tC/ ha) Nt (Necromass dead tree, in tC/ ha)

Relations of sampling site, five plots and three different sizes of sampling areas

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Methodology --- Destructive Sampling

To choice 1 of trees with large diameter for each position --- 5 tree (The logged-over secondary forest) To cut root To cut under-storey site To slice litter organic To cut dead tree (if available) To drill soil up to 1 meter for forest and 50 cm for agricultural

Methodology --- Destructive Sampling

Cutting of biomass organs of stem, branch, little branch, leaves and root Y = a Db. --- AGB , Brown et al.,(1997) B = cf. Y Bu = cf. Bu. A Nl = cf. Nl. A Nt = cf. Nt. A L or S = cf. s. depth.100 where B (Biomass carbon stocks, in tC) cf (non-dimensional conversion factor from carbon content in the lab. Analysis) s (density of soil, in t m-3)

Lab analysis

WII, 1997

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Methodology --- Statistical Analysis

1 IJ
J I

Result --- Carbon Stocks Data

Total Biomass
Low Disturbance Area

B Gerr

Pji
j 1 i 1 J I

O ij , O ij ,

(B (Gerr
i 2 j

0 indicates perfect) 0 indicates perfect)

1 IJ

Pji
j 1 i 1

Moderate Disturbance Area

IOA

1 IJ

Pji O Pji M0

j 1 i 1

Oij

M0

( IOA 1 indicates perfect)

High Disturbance Area

t C 0.5 x t B

where B is the bias, Gerr is the gross error, IOA is the index of agreement, is the predicted value, is the observed value, is the average of observed value (Tesche et al., 2001 and Emery et al., 2001). Minimum, average, and maximum TB based on wood density variations

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Result --- Carbon Stocks Data

Total Biomass
210.0 Average of TB

Carbon Stocks Data

Total Carbon Stocks
11.2% 11.0% 77.8% TBcomplex

Total Biomass (t ha-1 )

180.0 150.0 120.0 90.0

Carbon content of the under-storey biomass, necromass dead leaves and necromass dead tree is less than 4 t C ha-1

Secondary forest Agroforestry-cacao

cassava, yam, sweet potato
The average proportion of AGB/BGB and TB parts is 82.2% and 17.8%, respectively

60.0
30.0 0.0 low disturbance moderate disturbance Land Use Types high disturbance

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Total carbon stocks in tropical land use system in Papua

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Result --- Carbon Stocks Data

Total Biomass(All Land Use Types)
180 160

Logged-over Secondary Forest Mangrove area (West Kalimantan)

180 160 163.44 166.37 140 Tree Carbon stock (mg ha-1) 26.79 31.45 32.64 34.61 16.97 25.72 21.47 40 20 0 120 100 80 60

500.0

Total Biomass (tC/Ha)

400.0
350.0 300.0 250.0

Tree Carbon stock (Mg ha-1)

450.0

Average TB

140 120 100 80 60 40 20

200.0
150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0

Primary Mangrove Forests

Secondary Mangrove Forests

Primary Forests

Primary Peat Secondary Forests Peat Forest

Secondary Dry Land Forests

0 5 months 1 year after after logging logging 2 years after logging 3 years after logging 4 years after logging 6 years after logging 7 years after logging

Selat Sech Block

Bumbun Block

Land Use Types

Minimum (19.7%) Average (27.6%) Maximum (22.5%)

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The tree carbon in the logged-over areas decrease about 83% (Bagus, 2012)

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Carbon Stocks Data

Improvement of Allometric Equations

Next Development
Analysis Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) +

New allometric equations:

AGB

exp{ 2.364

0.946 ln(

D 2 H )}

Alos Palsar data

BGB exp{ 1.6603 0.9429 ln( AGB)}

After the correction of allometric equations, the total biomass increased by 26.4 % from the original allometric equations,

AGB = exp (-2.557 + 0.940 ln (w. D2. H)) BGB = exp (-1.0587 + 0.8836 ln (AGB))

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Thank You Very Much for Your Kind Attention TERIMA KASIH

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