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//CHARTS
//CHARTS
//CHARTS
//CHARTS
Identify quantitative (relative) unit of measure Identify categorical streams Identify temporal scale, and critical moments Identify inputs, exchanges, and qualitative transformations (eg: phase/material shifts, singularities) Construct organizational / branching system first, add quantitative / scalar information second
Lawrence Livermore Lab: US Energy Use, 2008 (top) Charles Joseph Minard: Napoleons 1812 invasion of Russia (bottom)
//SANKEY DIAGRAMS
//STRATEGIC/TACTICAL PLANNING
EVENTS
SEVERITY ORIGIN
EVENTS
EVENTS
1. Catalogue EVENTS/PIVOT POINTS -- Like scenarios, based on Focal Issue -- Take into account frequency, repetitiveness 2. Calibrate LIKELIHOOD -- Take into account frequency, repetitiveness 3. Calibrate SEVERITY OF EFFECT -- Eg: duration, amplitude -- Are there secondary or chain effects? 4. Map onto axes -- Identify current state/Origin 5. Connect CAUSE-EFFECT NODES -- Are events linked?
LIKELIHOOD
EVENTS
//VULNERABILITY MAPPING
SCENARIO 2
2. Identify DRIVING FORCES/SYSTEMS BOXES -- eg: social dynamics, economic issues, political, technological, logistical 3. Calibrate SYSTEM UNCERTAINTIES -- how do systems vary? -- what do data show? 4. Map uncertainties: KEY DIMENSIONS -- horizontal: internal agents -- vertical: external/environmental agents -- indicate areas of impossibility 5. Create a NARRATIVE THREAD for each quadrant
SCENARIO 3
SCENARIO 4
//SCENARIO PLANNING
Identify morphogenetic mechanisms or catalytic triggers Identify equilibrium where it exists Identify self-stabilizing circuits (distinct from static equilibrium) Track valence (positive or negative feedback)
//CAUSAL LOOPS
Track motion Idenfity therbligs Comparitive diagrams with therbligs, singularities in process Identify constraints, limits to range of motion, bottlenecks, etc.
//MANIFOLD/CHRONOCYCLOGRAPHS
//MANIFOLD/CHRONOCYCLOGRAPHS
//EPIGENESIS, MORPHOGENESIS
Identify marker features Define relational benchmarks (eg: xentith, cartesian coodinates, axes) Track over time Identify qualitative transformations/conversions
//FATE MAPS
EVENTS
SEVERITY ORIGIN
EVENTS
ST
LIKELIHOOD
EVENTS
//VARIABILITY MAPPING
AB Y IT IL
Identify morphogenetic mechanisms or catalytic triggers Identify bifurcations, cusps Model as folds
//TRIZ
Categorize variables Identify agents / triggers Connect fields Create conditional expressions
//sht_hppnz.exe
Define performance criteria & constraining pressures (eg: damage) Run simulation serially with differenct constraint parameters Any selection sets? (eg: are outputs fed back in as inputs, or does system reset with each generation?) Identify any optimization fronts or basins of attraction Characterize sensitivity of the system
Label axes Map relative intensities Take snapshots & explore alternative outcomes Where do singularities occur internally/locally? What thresholds exist, if any, for global characteristics?
identify features such as skewness (assymmetry of probability distribution) and kurtosis (measure of peakedness) locate event triggers within those 3D matrices