1.

Introduction

Stock market in Malaysia was conducted by Bursa Malaysia. Bursa Malaysia used the indexes standard by FTSE or Financial Times Stock Exchanged. There are many company listed in Bursa Malaysia such as Maybank and Petronas. In this Assignment, our main purpose is to forecast the outlook for 4 months from now which are end of month of 2011, January, February and March. Our Forecasting is based on the Rational Expectation Theory and efficiency market hypothesis. There are many factors that influence our hypothesis such as economic stability, monetary policy, inflation, dividend, budget 2012 and others. 1.1 Background of stock market in Malaysia

The first formal securities business organization in Malaysia was the Singapore Stockbrokers' Association, established in 1930. It was re-registered as the Malayan Stockbrokers' Association in 1937. The Malayan Stock Exchange was established in 1960 and the public trading of shares commenced. The board system had trading rooms in Singapore and Kuala Lumpur, linked by direct telephone lines (Bursa Malaysia, n.d). In 1964, the Stock Exchange of Malaysia was established. With the secession of Singapore from Malaysia in 1965, the Stock Exchange of Malaysia became known as the Stock Exchange of Malaysia and Singapore. In 1973, currency interchangeability between Malaysia and Singapore ceased, and the Stock Exchange of Malaysia and Singapore was divided into the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange Berhad and the Stock Exchange of Singapore. The Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange which was incorporated on December 14, 1976 as a company limited by guarantee, took over the operations of the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange Berhad in the same year (Bursa Malaysia, n.d). On April 14, 2004, we changed our name to Bursa Malaysia Berhad, following our demutualization exercise, the purpose of which was to enhance our competitive position and to respond to global trends in the exchange sector by making us more customer-driven and market-oriented. Bursa Malaysia which had been the third largest stock exchange in the region after Tokyo and Hong Kong (Ali Abbas, 2004). 1.2 Definition

Short term refers to period or duration in one year or less such 30 days, 3 months and 6 months (Mishkin, 2009).

Stock market known as common stock represents a share of ownership in a corporation. It is security that is a claim on the earnings and assets of the corporation. Holders of common stock or stockholders own an interest in the corporation consistent with the percentage of outstanding shares owned. Stockholder receives whatever remains after all other claims against the firms assets have been satisfied. Stockholders are paid dividends as known payments made periodically, usually every quarter, to stockholder from the net earnings of the corporation (Mishkin, 2009). Two type of stocks which are Ordinary Stocks and Preferential Stocks. Ordinary Stocks you own a share of the company. This entitles you to receive profits from the operations of the company in the form of dividends. At the annual general meeting (also referred to as an AGM), you have voting rights. Ordinary stocks are what you will start to trade in and most traders never venture beyond this. Meanwhile, the preferential stocks are different because you will receive dividends before dividends on ordinary stocks are announced. If the company is wound up, preference stockholders rank above ordinary stockholders in the distribution of assets. Preference stocks can often have a fixed dividend rate (Bursa Malaysia, n.d). Bull Market is a stock market in which buyer dominates and where prices are on a rising trend. Bull markets are characterized by optimism, investor confidence and expectations that strong results will continue. It's difficult to predict consistently when the trends in the market will change. Part of the difficulty is that psychological effects and speculation may sometimes play a large role in the markets. Meanwhile, Bear Market is a market condition in which the prices of securities are falling, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment to be self-sustaining. As investors anticipate losses in a bear market and selling continues, pessimism only grows (Investopedia, n.d). Rally is a period of sustained increases in the prices of stocks, bonds or indexes. This type of price movement can happen during either a bull or a bear market, when it is known as either a bull market rally or a bear market rally, respectively. However, a rally will generally follow a period of flat or declining prices. A rally is caused by a large amount of money entering the market, bidding up the prices. The length or magnitude of a rally depends on the depth of buyers along with the amount of selling pressure they face. For example, if there is a large pool of buyers but few investors willing to sell, there is likely to be a large rally. If, however, the same large pool of buyers is matched by a similar amount of sellers, the rally is likely to be short and the price movement minimal (Investopedia, n.d).

2.0

Short Term prospects of Malaysias Stock Market Rally

Short term stock market rally in Malaysia influenced by many factors by past data history, current and forecasting analysis by the next 4 months from now which are December, January, February and March. Rational Expectation theory is the guideline to forecast the rally rather than adaptive expectations. Adaptive expectations only suggest that changes in expectations will occur slowly over time as past data change and past data history (Mishkin, 2009). Rational expectation theory was developed by John Muth an alternative theory of expectations, called rational expectation which is expectations will be identical to optimal forecasts using available information (Mishkin, 2009). Thus Efficiency market hypothesis is just an application of rational expectations to the pricing of stocks and also to the other securities. This hypothesis based on assumption that prices of securities in financial markets fully reflect all available information (Mishkin, 2009). This available information included three categories of information. First is past data history by using published data to forecast what will happen using the past history because history can be repeated. Second information about current information to forecast what will be happen such as the current issues going around that will effects the reaction to future. Lastly future outlook determines by forecast using the two information from past data history and current. So our hypothesis is based on the efficiency market hypothesis by refer the rational expectations theory to forecasting the indexes for the short term stock market indexes in Bursa Malaysia. 2.1 Indexes Hypotheses of short term stock market rally

Our Indexes Hypothesis based on previous history of recorded indexes on Bursa Malaysia (Table and graph 2.1). Based on the table and indexed chart below, there are average increased indexes started Month January until June. Next, decreasing indexes started from June to September. Then the indexes increased from September to October. Bear Market rally started from June to October. Based on 2.1 graph, future forecasting for December until March refers to efficiency market hypothesis. Based on table and graph 2.1, the overvalue recorded on June at 1579.07 points. The undervalue from the indexes is on May that recorded 1387.13 points. The average value between and 1472.10 points and 1579.07 points.

Months January February March April May June July August September Octobers November

KLCI INDEXES 1519.94 1491.25 1545.13 1534.95 1558. 29 1579.07 1548.81 1447.27 1387.13 1491.89 1472.10

Table 2.1 Resource: Bursa Malaysia Key Indicator

Indexes

Months Graph 2.1 KLCI Indexes (Source: Bursa Malaysia Key indicators)

2.2 Factors that influence future outlook 2.2.1: Economic stability Economic stability important in the stock market rally in short term prospect. If Malaysia had good economic stability, the stock market will rally. Its give the good sentiments for investor. Back to history when Malaysia had first experienced recession in 1985 and last in 1999. The history of financial crisis in 1999 starts in the mid may 1997 caused by the currency crisis that time. Even more drastic than the plunge in the exchange rate, was the collapse of the stock market. Between July and December 1997, the composite index of the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE CI) fell by 44.9 per cent. Following a slight recovery in the first quarter of 1999, the index again fell, this time to an eleven-year low of 262.70 points on September 1, 1998. On the whole, between July 1, 1997 and September 1, 1998, market capitalization in the KLSE fell by about 76 per cent to RM 181.5 billion. In fact, although it enjoyed the best precrisis economic fundamentals among countries that were hit by the crisis, Malaysia experienced the biggest stock market plunge in the region (Mohamed Ariff And Syarisa Yanti Abu Bakar, 1999). Our economic environment had influence by the international economic surrounding also. On 2008 economy crisis started in United State caused by subprime crisis. At that time, Malaysia also effected from this situation. Its lower export activity because the world demand fall. Thus the Foreign Direct Investment falls and unemployment rate increased. Obviously the stock market price in Bursa Malaysia that time decrease started from 2007 to 2008. Based on the graph below the stock market indexes at 1246.8 indexes decreases to 858.22 indexes.

Resource: treasury department (ministry of financial)

The current economic crisis occurs at EU and US because of debt crisis. It also effect on the Malaysia economic stability this year. But this situation only temporary because it will recover. According IMF, expected on growth economic rates will increase 4 %. Nevertheless, economic growth slow because the growth rates among advance country such as Japan slow, caused impact from tsunami disaster and earthquake. So, outlook for Malaysia economy is in good condition at 2012. Then, future outlook for stock market indexes will increase moderate cause by slow economic growth and expected stock market will rally. 2.2.2: Monetary policy Monetary policy can affect stock process in 2 ways by using the interest rate as medium. First, when fed lowers interest rates, the return on bonds which is an alternative asset to stocks declines, an investors are likely to accept a lower required rate of return on an investment in equity. Decline in ke is the required return on an investment in equity, using the Gordon growth model lead to a higher value of P0 and raise stock prices. Furthermore, a lowering of interest rates is likely to stimulate the economy, so that the growth rate in dividends, g is the expected constant growth rate in dividends is likely to be somewhat higher. The rise in g leads the higher P0 and rise in Stock Prices ( Mishkin, 2009). According to Sunny Tan (1989), interest rates are used to stabilize the economy. A rise of the interest rates can staunch on outflow of capital strengthens the dollar and dampens the risk of high inflation. But the irony is that high interest rates discourage business activity involving. When the interest rates falling, shares prices will be nudged up accordingly. Given a choice, an investor would prefer to place his money in shares which will earn him better returns in terms of dividend and capital appreciation. The improvement liquidity position of the stock market is the result of low interest rates offered by the interest- bearing deposits. Investors will also be encouraged to borrow more to buy stocks and shares when interest rates are low. Thus prices of stocks and shares are pushed up even higher. Monetary policy determined the stock prices. It can impact the as asymmetries in bull and bear markets. Obviously it gives big effects to Bear market rather than bull market. Monetary policy can give impact to asset prices and stock return (Jansen, 2010). The impact of a surprise policy action in a bear market for most industries is significantly greater than the impact of surprise monetary policy in a bull market. Controlling for the capacity for external finance, stock returns of firms in bear states respond more than firms in bull states. Capacity for

external finance is more important in a bear market, as it partially mitigates the larger impact of monetary policy in a bear market. Monetary influences the interest rate. Hence, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM, the central bank) is expected to continue to make incremental changes to its main interest rate, the overnight policy rate (OPR), during the early part of the forecast period as it proceeds with the normalization of monetary policy. The interest rate of the OPR is influenced by the central bank, where it is a good predictor for the movement of short-term interest rates. BNM has raised the OPR three times since March 2010, by a total of 75 basis points, bringing the rate up to 2.75%, after having cut it to a record low in response to the dramatic downturn in the Malaysian economy that occurred in 2009. However, the recent sharp appreciation of the local currency, the ringgit, and signs of slower economic growth suggest that further rises in official interest rates in the next few months are unlikely. BMN does not expect inflation to rise to problematic levels, believing that it will remain moderate in 2011 as strengthening domestic demand is accompanied by only a gradual acceleration in the rate of price increases. In 2011 we do not expect the OPR to exceed the high of 3.5% at which it stood during 2007 and much of 2008. But a quickening in the pace of domestic demand growth from 2012 will prompt BNM to raise the OPR above this level during the remainder of the forecast period to contain inflationary pressures. Based on the expected increase the interest rate, the short term stock market will effect and it will effects rally on Bursa Malaysia. 2.2.3: Inflation Inflation rate is one of factor that manipulate stock market rally. Based on study case Monetary Policy Analysis Towards Inflation and Capital Market Performance, the analysis show that there have some significant effects between interest rate and the important things is inflation rate give indirect and direct influence of macroeconomics variable towards return market. Besides that, case study from Robert S. Pindyck (1983) inflation rate can causes a large part of the market decline because the variance of firms real gross marginal return on capital has increased significantly, increasing the relative riskiness of investors return on equity. Study case from Spanish by Antonio, et al (2008), about the effects of inflation to stock market prices was there are the short run responses of daily stock prices on the Spanish market to the

announcements of inflation news at an industrial level. The result was negative to stock prices. It means that, the investor fall their investment to the stock market. The current inflation rate for November was last reported at 3.4 percent. So, our forecasting is inflation rate have negative relationship with stock rally market because it will discourages investors decrease their investment and it will effect the stock market indexes and rally will effect. 2.2.4: Dividend Dividend is one factor that influences stock market rally in Malaysia. According to Bursa Saham website Malaysia dividend refers to the payment or income that person receives as a shareholder from the company or by a corporation. It is the portion of corporate profits paid out to stockholders. Tan. S (1989) the original objective in investing in stocks and share is the expectation on getting dividend at a fixed period. As situation change so does the investors expectation. The dividend pay-out is not guaranteed and where it exists at all, the amount youll be given will be different from company to company and year to year. For example, high-growth companies seldom offer dividend because all of their profits are reinvested to help maintain higher-than-average growth. Conversely, larger companies have less potential for quick capital growth but are more probable to pay healthy dividends which are steadily rising as the years go by. Companys Board of Directors has an authority to approved declaration of any dividend before it is being paid to stockholder. The day that the Broad of Directors announces its intention to pay a dividend is called as declaration date. On the declaration date, the Board will also announce a date of records and payment date. They are three types of declaration date of dividend which are interim, first and final and final dividend. Firstly, interim dividend refer to a dividend is paid out by the corporation when the directors have received the half year financial result. Secondly, the first and final dividend is the only dividend paid out for that financial year. Lastly is the final dividend is paid when the final profits are shown in the final accounts. On our studied, expected declaration date dividend for stock by companies in Malaysia will be on March 2012. Based on previous studied Dividend policy and stock price volatility in Pakistan by Muhammad Nishad et al (2002) mention that they are relationship between the

dividend policy and stock price, if the dividend policy is stable high dividend stock will have shorter duration. On our hypothesis, before the dividend announcement stock market will be increase until the time of announcement, after the announcement the stock market expected to be stable than falls. Once the dividend has been declared, a listed corporation must not make any subsequent alteration to dividend entitlement. A listed corporation must ensure that all dividends are paid not later than 3 months from the date of assertion or the date on which approval is obtained in general meeting, whichever is appropriate. 2.2.5: 2012 Budget From the evidence that we have found, 2012 budget that have been read out by prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak as a minister of finance on October 2011 it is also the factors that influence the stock market rally in Malaysia. Berita harian news by Kaladher Govindan mention that the stock market will be increase because 2012 budget gives all benefit to all resident of Malaysia whereas to government servants, students, driver taxi and so on. After the announcement 2012 budget, bursa Malaysia FTSE increase 12.92 more point or 0.93 percent and close on 1400.05 point with Axiata (+19 cent), Maybank (+18 cent), IOI Corp (+17 cent) and tenaga (+1 cent) it represent almost the index total rising. Same goes to Utusan Malaysia news on 9 October 2011, price of stock at bursa Malaysia will expected to increase after the Malaysian friendly budget or people centric budget announcement by government. 2012 Budged also gave impact to the stocks of United Malaya Land Bhd, Malaysian resources Corp Bhd and Gamuda Bhd and to education stocks such as Seg International Bhd and help International Corp have a benefit from the announcement of budget 2012. Before the announcement 2012 budget there is stock market rally happen in bursa Malaysia mention by Dr Nazri Chief research in Affin Investment bank (Bernama, October 2011) On our expectation to stock market rally on 2012 budget will raise because of the benefit that resident and nation will accept on next year. On budged 2012 stated they are many developments on economy Malaysia will occur on 2012 such as development on infrastructures, development project and so on. On the other hand, lowers charges income tax give a very impact to investors encourage them to buy more stocks on along 2012 with outlook our

economic condition is good. So, our forecast on four month future outlook is the stock market will rally. 2.2.6: Election and political Election and political factor also manipulate the short-term stock market rally in Malaysian. The past data from journal it proven that political and election have give impact to the short-term stock market. Case study from Stock Market Volatility Around National Elections by (Jedrej Bialkowski et al. 2007). The findings from the journal is that Country-specific component of index return variance can easily double during the week around an election, which shows that investors are surprised by the election outcome. The magnitude of the election shock also was contribute by factors of a narrow margin of victory, lack of compulsory voting laws, change in the political orientation of the government, or the failure to form a government with parliamentary majority significantly. Besides that, some evidence is found that markets with short trading history exhibit stronger reaction. Instead of that, same result goes to case study from Taiwan (Cameron A. Shelton, 2008). On election campaign, the investors will courage to bought stock market because they have confident to the party that will give incentive to the economy. So, it has proven that election and political have positive relationship. In Malaysia, our current political is stable although there have demonstration from opponent party such as demonstration Bersih but the government still can control this situation. Then, our general General election (GE) speculated to be held within the next few months. GE could cause a spike in the market risk premium (MRP) again like the last GE that leading to a weaker market (Liz Lee, 2011). Nomura Research in its Malaysian Outlook 2012 report said that GE is the most important event for the market for 2012. It is because MRP rose by 232 basis points between December 2007 and March 2008. The market also plummeted 10% in the first day of trading after the March 8 election. Although there are good sentiment for investor from other country but in Malaysia, election and political gave bad to stock market in Bursa Malaysia. In nut shell, our forecasting for four month outlook on short-term stock market index at Bursa Malaysia will not rally because of the election factor. It is because, it not give sentiment for investor to invest and it will effect stock market index. Maybe, it caused by the uncertainty of investor to invest because of their political view.

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2.2.7: Festival Festivals also persuade the rally of stock market in Bursa Malaysia. Within in four month, our country will celebrate two main festival which are Christmas on 25th December and Chinese New Year on 24th January. Chinese New Year (CNY) can causes highest return in March and April (Lei Gao and Gerhard Kling, 2005). The situations happen in China because Chinese investors are amateur speculator who often embezzles business fund for private trading. It means that these funds are used for short-term speculations before they are paid back prior to weekends. Correspondently, the Chinese stock market reaches its peaks shortly before the money is withdrawn. It means that the money is withdraws close to CNY in February and afterwards additional money flows into the market. Researcher of this journal also conclude that the Efficient Market Hypothesis can be confirmed for current period as long they are focus solely on calendar anomalies. However, Sunny (1989), the Chinese New Year and the Rally are two distinct subjects which do not come together to make a Chinese New Year Rally. The Chinese investors are too busy preparing for their once- a year big celebration and have little or no time to get themselves involved in the stock market. Moreover liquidity at this time of the year is tight. They prefer to be free from tension and anxiety of monitoring the market during this period of the year which is considered most significant to them. Based on the contrast result of Chinese New Year, we had decided that there are average increasing in the stock market during Chinese New Year. Even though there good and bad information, we still forecasting the indexes will increased a little. Although their busy to do their preparations but prosperity is important. They psychology also influence their reaction to gain more money during festival One more celebration on December 2011 is Christmas. According to The Star (2009), at the end of the year, the market will be a bullish market. It is because November through January tends to be the best three-month span for stocks (The Star,2009). On 2010 the stock Market in the Bull Market. Moreover, based on US stock market, the end of year is most reliable rallies of the year because probability is very high. The investor who might normally sell stocks for tax purposes late in the year could be more likely to hold off this time around. So, Christmas is not one of major factor of stock market but people may say opposite with this statement. The true is Christmas is in month of the end of years.

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3.0

Conclusion

As a conclusion, our forecasting for 4 months is average increase but not achieve the highest value of the indexes on June with had been recorded the over value of indexes at 1579.07 points. Thus, our hypothesis the indexes will not decrease below the undervalue that recorded on September at 1387.13 points. Our forecasting for December, January, February and March is on average value between 1472.10 points and 1500 points. We conclude that based on factors such as monetary policy, economy stability, dividend, 2012 budget, election and political, festival and interest rate that influence stock market is averages rally. From the graph, our prediction starting on December until March, the graph indexes increases start December to March. Even though interest rate and inflation rate effects the rally but we confident that this situation not give big impact to rally. The sentiment from factor such as economy stability, dividend, election and political, festival and more 2012 budget will give impact to the investor to invest.

Index Pasaran Saham di KLCI

1600

Outlook forecasting
1550

1500

1450 indexes

1400

1350

1300

1250

Graph 2.1 KLCI Indexes (Source: Bursa Malaysia Key indicator 12

4.0 References

Ahmad Rodoni. (2006). Monetary Policy Analysis Towards Inflation and Capital Market. Journal

of economics 40: 27-46.

Antonio Diaz and Francisco Jareno. (2008). Explanatory factors of the inflation news impact

on stock returns by sector: The Spanish case. Research in International Business and
Finance 23 (2009) 349368 Bajet 2012 Tumpukan Kepada Mengurangkan Kos Kehidupan. Online on www.1Malaysia.blogsport.com Retrieved on 28 December 2011. Bursa Malaysia site. (n.d). Retrieved on www.klse.com.my/. Online on 7th November 2011. CIA's Outlook on Malaysia 2011- 2015. Retrieved at http://www.malaysia today.net/mtcolumns/from-around-the-blogs/37236-cias-outlook-on-malaysia-20112015. online on 7 November, 2011. Interestrate. Retrieved at http://www.min.com.my/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=126&lang=b m. Retrieved at 7 November, 2011. Investopedia.com. n.d. online at Invhttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bullmarket.asp#axzz1dapD2cti Jansen, Dennis W. and Chun- Li. (2010). Monetary policy and stock returns: Financing

constraints and asymmetries in bull and bear markets. Journal of Empirical Finance.
Journal of Empirical Finance 17 (2010) 981990. Texas A&M University, United States National Cheng Kung University, Taiwan. Jedrej Bialkowski et al. (2007). Stock Market Volatility Around National Elections. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=MiamiImageURL&_cid=271679&_user=540 662&_pii=S0378426607004219&_check=y&_origin=&_coverDate=30-Sep2008&view=c&wchp=dGLzVlB-zSkzV&md5=d0a88239a65e63f619aa104d332ea936/1s2.0-S0378426607004219-main.pdf. Retrieved at 3 Disember 2011. 13

Kaladher Govindan. (2011). Bursa Mingguan: Bursa tempatan melonjak. Retrieved at 28 December 2011. Lei Gao and Gerhard Kling (2005). Calender Effects In Stock Market. Diperolehi daripada laman web http://www.aeconf.net/Articles/May2005/aef060105.pdf and Retrieved at 3 Disember 2011. Liz Lee (2011). Genaral Election The Main For Malaysian Market In 2012. Thestar.com.my. Diperolehi daripada laman web http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2011/11/30/business/9999984&sec=bus iness dan Retrieved at 3 Disember 2011. Mishkin, Frederic S. (2009). The economics of Money, Banking, and financial Markets, 9th. United States: Pearson. Mohamed Ariff And Syarisa Yanti Abubakar. (1999). The Malaysian Financial Crisis: Economic

Impact And Recovery Prospects. The Developing Economies, Xxxvii-4 (December 1999):
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