RECENT TRENDS IN THE POLISH BANKING SECTOR JULY 2012

June 2011
Loose slides by Inteliace Research

THE GROWTH OF BANKING VOLUMES HAS DECELERATED SINCE EARLY 2012

Annual growth rate in outstanding loans / attracted deposits Jan.2011-Jul.2011
in %

BANKING VOLUMES

Deposits
18

Loans
Both retail and corporate volumes are slowing down since early 2012 A significant deceleration in retail lending can be observed as tighter lending rules combined with stagnating houdehold income prevent individuals from taking more bank loans Corporates keep investing, however, they are increasingly using the stockpiled deposits rather than taking new loans

18 15 12 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 -9 -12 Sep-10 Sep-11 May-10 May-11 May-12 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jan-10 Mar-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12

Retail

Corporate*
15 12 9 6 3

BANKING SECTOR IN POLAND 07.2012

Retail

Corporate*

0 -3 -6 -9 -12 Sep-10 May-10 May-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jan-10 Mar-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jul-12

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*Corporate subjects only. Excluded: non-monetary financial institutions and public sector Inteliace Research Source: NBP, Inteliace Research

AFTER A TEMPORARY STABILIZATION IN 2011, THE LEVEL OF NON-PERFORMING LOANS IS INCREASING AGAIN
Ratio of non performing bank loans in the total lending portfolio, by segment/product, Mar.2009-Jul.2012
in %
20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9

NON-PERFORMING BANK LOANS

Consumer loans

The quality of lending portfolios stabilized in 2011, but since then, the level of NPLs has been increasing again.
Corporate loans (in PLN)

BANKING SECTOR IN POLAND 07.2012

Mortgage loan NPLs are still relatively low but they are growing steadily. Falling residential real estate prices and stagnating real household income are likely to negatively affect the quality of mortgage loans in the future.

8
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

All client loans combined

Mortgage loans (retail)

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Source: NBP, Inteliace Research

POLAND HAS THE LARGEST BANKING MARKET IN THE CEE15* GROUP

CEE-15* banking markets - Size vs. growth matrix, 2009-2011
Contraction
Slovenia
28 26

Low growth

High growth

50

24 22 20 18

Czech Republic

Total banking assets, 2011 in billion EUR

BANKING SECTOR IN POLAND 07.2012

Banking assets per capita, 2011, `000 EUR

Estonia

Latvia
16

Croatia Slovakia

179

18 112
Lithuania Hungary

30

14 12 10 8

54 58
Bulgaria Romania

Poland
293
40
28
Serbia FYROM (Macedonia)

23
6 4

82 12
2 0

Albania

BiH

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Average annual assets growth (CAGR), 2009-2011, in EUR, %

* Major 15 CEE countries. Russia, Ukraine and Belarus not included Source: Central banks, IMF, Inteliace Research

Inteliace Research

About this report

This report has been prepared using Inteliace Research proprietary research and publicly available sources, including: financial reports, press publications, industry magazines, directories, financial databases and expert opinions. Views presented in this report reflect solely the independent and unbiased opinion of Inteliace Research and authors. All due care has been taken in the production of this report. However, Inteliace Research does not accept any responsibility or liability for any omissions or inaccuracies of the information contained in this publication. This report is copyrighted. Any distribution, storage, replication and usage is restricted to Inteliace Research clients only. In case of any doubt please contact us at: info@Inteliace.com

About Inteliace Research

Inteliace Research is an independent and privately owned research firm based in the heart of Eastern Europe in Warsaw / Poland. Our company specializes in value-added research services and tailored business intelligence solutions. Through our customized research services we help our clients to better understand their customers, competitors and overall market dynamics.

BANKING SECTOR IN POLAND 07.2012

The lead researcher and founder of Inteliace Research is Marcin Mazurek.

Our contact details: Inteliace Research Pod Lipa 6 02-798 Warszawa, Poland Tel. +48 22 408 66 20, Tel. +48 502 512 178 Fax. +48 22 349 21 40 mail: info@Inteliace.com http://www.inteliace.com/en/publications.php

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RECENT PUBLICATIONS BY INTELIACE RESEARCH

Documents:
2011 February - Mortgage Lending in Poland 11 April - Bank outlets database 11 April - Banking Market in Poland 11 June - Insurance Market in Poland 11 July - Investment Funds and Asset Mgmt. 11 September - Top 200 CEE banks 11 October - Banking Market in Poland Update 1H11 2012 February - Mortgage Lending in Poland 12 April - Banking Market in Poland 12 May - Bank outlets database 12 June - Insurance Market in Poland 12
and many other ...

BANKING SECTOR IN POLAND 07.2012

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