Agenda setting in political news 1 Running Head: AGENDA SETTING IN THE 2012 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RACE

Agenda Setting in the 2012 Republican Primary Race Charlotte E. Davis April 3, 2012 Queens University of Charlotte

Agenda setting in political news 2 Topic Politics is a huge part of the news that Americans view on television everyday. This is especially true every four years, when a presidential election is coming up. In November of 2012 the people of the United States will decide whether to keep the current president, Barack Obama, in office for another four years or vote in a new candidate to take his place. Before this can happen the Republican Party must narrow down its presidential hopefuls to one person. This process is collectively known as the presidential primary system. In the primaries Republican candidates debate and discuss the issues that they feel strongly about. The coverage of these issues by television news is how most people receive information about the candidates. This research study will look at the use of agenda setting by television news with relevance to the ongoing 2012 Republican primaries. Literature Review Agenda Setting Theory The concept of agenda setting in news has been widely discussed and studied by communication scholars. Scholars Wu and Coleman (2009) define agenda setting as mass medias decision to cover some issues while ignoring others. This system then shows viewers that issues being covered are more important and should be thought about more than issues that are not valued by the makers of mass media. McCombs and Shaw (1972) were two of the first communication scholars to use agenda setting theory to study how the media covers political campaigns and how that effects which issues voters deem important. Since, their study was one of the first of its kind, they did not prove agenda setting was indeed telling candidates what to think about, but that the correct conditions were shown in this study for that to be true (McCombs & Shaw, 1972). Wu and Coleman (2009) also

Agenda setting in political news 3 state that in the last 30 years most agenda setting research has concentrated on the amount of coverage given to and issue and how people then perceive the issues importance. This is called the first level of agenda setting theory. In further study of agenda setting theory, researchers found that a second level of agenda setting was present in mass media. This second level is defined by Wu and Coleman (2009) as agenda setting that examines the influence of attribute salience, or the properties, qualities, and characteristics that describe objects or people in the news and the tone of those attributes (pg. 776). The attributes used to define second level agenda setting can be placed into two categories. The first is substantiative, or the attributes that deal with actual issues in the story being covered. The second is affective, which asks how the tone of the story affects how people feel about an issue. This could be positive, negative or neutral (Wu & Coleman, 2009). Agenda setting theory is relevant to political primaries because these events are widely covered by news and the issues discussed during the primaries carry over into the general election which decides who gets elected to run the United States. The issues that receive the most news coverage are more known to the general public and therefore become important to candidates who need public support. Politics and Agenda Setting Agenda setting theory has been used many times to interpret the way political news and issues are portrayed to American viewers. John Tedesco (2005) found that not only does agenda setting affect what viewers think about issues in political elections, but it may also affect what other candidates choose to think about and discuss. Tedesco (2005) found that during the 2004 election coverage of issues that G. W. Bush was discussing changed

Agenda setting in political news 4 what Kerry talked about. The agenda setting nature of the news picked up the issue that Bush was interested in, making it more valuable to viewers, so Kerry had to begin discussing the issue as well to keep up with the race. Peake and Eshbaugh-Sohan (2008) used agenda setting to research whether televised addresses by the president have any meaningful effect on news and policy agenda. They found a slight positive correlation between issues noted in presidential addresses and new coverage of these issues. They also found that presidents with higher approval rating have a better chance of affecting media agenda through televised addresses (Peake & Eshbaugh-Soha, 2008). Attention to political issues by the news media often has some correlation to policy implementation (Mortensen, 2010). This is important to note for several reasons. Often, the public wants to know what a candidate would do as far as policy on a certain issue. If this issue is set high on the agenda by television news, the candidate will have to discuss it to appease voters. This is why some issues that are not hugely important or deserving of immediate action end up at the forefront of campaigning strategies or taking up the majority of time in a presidential primary debate. In Oliver Boyd-Barretts (2011) review of the book The Nightly News Nightmare: US Media Coverage of Presidential Elections 1988-2008, he agrees with the books claim that most news coverage of elections is more about the horse race aspect of campaigns than actual issues. He also feels the book is correct in its assessment that political comedy on late night television says more about the issues than the news does. This alleged agenda setting failure by the news media is noted in this literature review in order to show the

Agenda setting in political news 5 many discrepancies between what is often explained on the campaign by candidates as important and what the television news decides is important. Why use television news? Television and radio are two of the oldest mass media tools that are still used widely today. Television is especially pervasive in America. It is one of the only two media platforms to experience growth in recent years, with online news as a close second (Maier, 2010). Maier (2010) also found that online news reporting follows that of television news. Due to televisions popularity and the finding that most news follows television news, in conjunction with the massive amount of agenda setting research done on television news it is the best choice for this study. The 2012 Republican Primary The Republican Party has had a very intense primary season thus far in the race to the White House. Although the primary did not technically start until January 3 of this year, debates among the contenders have been going on since summer of 2011. This is due to several factors. First, the party had quite a few candidates running, nine in total. This called for some early trimming of hopefuls so the party would not be split nine ways in January. Next, the weak economy has caused some doubt in the current president causing his ratings to drop, which gave the Republican Party an opportunity to share its opinions on a viable solution for our countrys economic struggles (Cohen, 2011). Of the many candidates who started the race, only four remain not to say that is not a relatively high number considering we are eight months from Election Day. While all running under the Republican Party platform of conservatism and free market growth, all

Agenda setting in political news 6 four have set out to get the Republican nomination, meaning they must show the party faithful, or those who vote in the primaries, their differences from one another. Mitt Romney, at first the apparent choice for the nomination, is now having trouble keeping his momentum. He has been standing on the fact that is his a businessman who knows how to balance a budget. For him, the main talking point has been the economy and how to minimize the deficit (Romney, 2012). His critics have stated that he is too liberal of a candidate when talking about issues such as contraception for women (Romney flipflops, 2012). Rick Santorum is the candidate that has really upset Romneys easy ride into the nomination. After the former senator won the first primary race, the Iowa caucus, in January, he has been right on Romneys tail. Santorum presents himself as the true conservative candidate, boasting his Christian values and protection of the Constitution on his website (Santorum, 2012). He has been criticized mostly for his past record in Congress that seem to defy what he has been campaigning for, including steel industry subsidies (Farley, 2012). He has also been criticized for some brash statements about notable figures in U.S. history, like John F. Kennedy (Schoenbur, 2012). Newt Gingrich has been a notable figure in U.S. politics for over a decade. His website boasts a candidate that will bring jobs to America and get the national government back on track (Gingrich, 2012). He has been criticized several intense statements, one being about African Americans being satisfied with food stamps (Caiola, 2012). Finally, Ron Paul is still hanging on in the primaries as of March, 1st. Paul is a congressman from Texas, who believes in restoring small government, low taxes and the free market to American government (Paul, 2012). He is most widely criticized for his

Agenda setting in political news 7 stance on National Security, especially when it comes to the defense budget and the wars in the Middle East (Sonmez, 2012). Although Romney and Santorum seem to be the main players in the primary season thus far, it is important to note that both Gingrich and Paul have the ability to set the political agenda and the news agenda by continuing to bring the issues they deem important to the forefront of debates, advertisements, and discussions. The Issues The Republican primary has had quite a bit of news coverage this year, which makes it easier to discern what issues have arisen and what issues are staying at the forefront of most of the debates between candidates and discussion of candidates. This section will look at the debates and what issues came up in them as a way of explaining what seems to be the main issues the Republican candidates are focused on. Although, the New Hampshire debates were lackluster by modern standards, some issues were notable during this debate. The issue of gay marriage and faith was briefly brought up, well as past records of the candidates of earmarks, tenures and voting (Hall, 2012). The candidates also spent a fair amount of time criticizing Obamas policies and discussing foreign policy with regards to China (Askar, 2012). There was on question about contraception, which seemed quite out of place at the time. Finally, the issues like the economy and jobs were almost non-existent until the last few minutes of the debate (Hall, 2012). The South Carolina debates had some repetition with those in New Hampshire. They both heavily criticized Obama on a number of issues and attacked almost every candidate on some aspect of his past political life. Second to those two issues, healthcare was a large

Agenda setting in political news 8 part of this debate, with all of the candidates sharing their opinion on the best way to repeal Obamacare. The debate touched on unemployment, tax cuts, federal budget cuts and outsourcing but these, again, did not take up the majority of the debate time. The debate ended with a brief discussion of abortion and immigration (Astor, 2012). The debate in Tampa, Florida has been one of the most subdued races thus far, but it did give some information as to what issues were important. This debate showed that the overwhelming issue for Republican candidates is what the other candidates have done wrong in their political careers and what about their character makes them inept at being a good president. Issues that also arose in between all of the back and forth between candidates were the economy, which finally got some much needed air time, jobs, immigration, foreign policy with Iran and taxes. This debate, like the ones in the two previous states, included criticism of Obama and his policies (Wall Street Journal, 2012). The most recent debate, in Arizona, was much more informative than the previous one in Tampa. The candidates focused much of their energy on giving scathing reports of their opponents past political history and whether or not they lived up to the conservative stump speeches each of them have been giving on a daily basis. The next widely debate issue was birth control and other social issues such as abortion and women participating in the front lines of war. Naturally, criticism of Obama and his policies was a large part of this debate, as it has been in all the previous ones. Another important issue during the debate was oil and gas prices and how foreign policy in the Middle East is affecting them. To a lesser extent immigration, the federal budget and the candidates characters were all discussed during the airing of the debate (Wall Street Journal, 2012).

Agenda setting in political news 9 These debates showcase what issues are important to the candidates, the news television news media, and to constituents. Candidates past history (or reputation for conservativeness), their character, the economy and jobs creation, as well as social issues (such as abortion and contraception for women) all seem to be hot topics judging by the debates during the 2012 primaries. Hypotheses and Research Question H1: The more people watch televised news the more likely they are to view candidates past history as an important issue in the 2012 Republican Primary. H2: The more people watch televised news the more likely they are to view candidates character as an important issue in the 2012 Republican Primary. H3: People who watch televised news are more likely to view the economy and jobs creation as important issues in the 2012 Republican Primary. H4: The more people watch televised news the more likely they are to view social issues as important issues in the 2012 Republican Primary. H5: The amount of perceived coverage a candidate receives affects whether people who watch televised news often would vote for that candidate. RQ 1: Is there a correlation between the frequency of watching a particular news network and the perception of which issues are important? Definition: Who people would vote for: How likely a person who watches television news would be to vote for a certain candidate in the 2012 Republican Primary. News Network: Television news networks who report on American political happenings.

Agenda setting in political news 10 People who watch televised news often: This will include people who watch news channel coverage of the 2012 Republican primaries more than once a week on average. Past history: This includes a candidates political history, such as voting records, bill introductions, endorsements and what lobbyists or organizations they have taken monies from. For Republican candidates it is used as way to test if a candidate is truly conservative or just talking about being conservative during their campaign. Character: During the debates each of the candidates had to defend certain non-political aspects of their past. For this study, those things will be considered questions of character. For example: Newt Gingrichs multiple marriages could be seen as a character flaw that goes against conservative family values. Economy and Jobs creation: This includes all things economical. This may be the deficit, the federal budget, tax reform, or any number of small issues that make up the larger of issue of how to create jobs while boosting the economy. Social Issues: These are issues that the candidates have a stance on that may change peoples lives in a personal way. This could be gay marriage, abortion, or womens role in the armed forces as well as a number of other things. Important issues: Issues that candidates talk about and are covered by the news and are then deemed important by people who watch televised news. 2012 Republican Primary: Although there were a considerable number of debates and coverage of the Republican candidates before the primary started, the actual primary does not start until January 3, 2012. For the purpose of this study we will be using that date as the start of the 2012 Republican Primary season.

Agenda setting in political news 11 Perceived Coverage: This is how much people who watch televised news feel that a candidate is being shown on television news. The actual amount of time on the news the candidate receives is not as important as how much time the viewer thinks that candidate is getting. Methodology For this study, a convenience sample was used to gather information on the population of traditional undergraduate students at Queens University of Charlotte. Wimmer and Dominick (2011) define a convenience sample as a collection of readily available subjects (p. 92). This type of sample was the most advantageous for this study because it is cost and time effective. Although the sample is a good fit for this study, it still has several disadvantages. Most importantly, no mathematical formula is used to select the participants in the study. This means that sampling error cannot be established and representativeness is difficult, if not impossible, to ensure. To collect the data a face-to-face, paper survey was used. This survey was thirteen questions long and included multiple-choice questions, as well as several likert scales, which measured information at the interval level. The likert scales will make the information gathered more useful because it can be used to systematically weigh questions. All of the survey questions were close-ended to ensure uniformity among answers and to make quantifying the studys results simpler. In accordance with the rules for order in surveys the questions were set up in a logical order and were consistent in order to avoid confusion among participants (Wimmer & Dominick, 2011). Thirty-five Queens University of Charlotte undergraduate students were given and survey and completed it. Although, they did the survey on their own with out help from the

Agenda setting in political news 12 researcher, they were allowed to ask for clarification or more information if necessary. Prior to being the given the survey, students were asked if they were following the 2012 Republican primary on television in order to ensure that they would have the knowledge needed to complete the survey. Pilot Study Five participants out of the population being studied took the survey prior to the data collection as part of a pilot study. The participants of the pilot study were asked to take the survey and were allowed to ask for clarification if questions were confusing or misleading. It took each of the five participants between seven and twelve minutes to complete the survey. None of them asked for any type of clarification during the survey, which shows that the questions are clearly stated and reasonable for the study. The pilot study did show some trends between the news network watched and the issues the participants found important. It also showed a correlation between what issues the participants felt were important and what the news felt were important issues. These factors lead me to believe that the survey was a useful tool for this study and prompted me to proceed without changes to the questionnaire or the study itself. Findings H1. This hypothesis stated that the more people watch televised news, the more likely they are to think candidates past history is an important issue in the 2012 Republican Primary. The hypothesis was tested by asking participants to rate how often they watch television news and by asking them to rate how important of an issue they thought a candidates past history was in this election. The survey found that 15 people (43%) watch television twice a week or more and that 24 (69%) people signified that

Agenda setting in political news 13 candidates past history was an important issue by rating it a 4 or 5 on the likert scale. This shows a positive correlation between watching television news often and thinking that past history is important. Although there is a positive correlation, this hypothesis showed the least significance out of the four hypotheses pertaining to the importance of certain issues. This hypothesis was supported. H2. The second hypothesis stated that the more people watch televised news the more likely they are to think candidates character is an important issue in the 2012 Republican Primary. This was tested by asking participants how much televised news they watched and asking them to rate how important the issue of character was to them on a likert scale. The survey found that 15 (43%) people watched televised news at least twice a week and that 29 (83%) people indicated that candidates character was an important issue by rating it a 4 or 5 on the likert scale. This shows a positive correlation between the two variables. H2 was supported by the research. H3. H3 suggested that the more people watch televised news the more likely they were to view the economy and jobs creation as an important issue in the 2012 Republican Primary. This was tested by asking participants how much televised news they watched and asking them to rate how important the issue of the economy and jobs creation was to them on a likert scale. The survey showed that 15 (43%) people watched television news at least two times a week and that 31 (89%) people suggested that the economy and jobs creation was an important issue to them by rating them a 4 or 5 on the likert scale. This shows a positive correlation between the two variables. This hypothesis was supported by the data. Also, H3 had the most significant positive correlation of all of the four hypotheses pertaining to which issues are important to voters.

Agenda setting in political news 14 H4. This hypothesis suggested that the more people watch televised news the more likely they were to view social issues as an important issue in the 2012 Republican Primary. This was tested by asking participants how much televised news they watched and asking them to rate how important the issue of social issues was to them on a likert scale. The survey showed that 15 (43%) people watched television news at least two times a week and that 27 (77%) people indicated that this issue was important to them by rating the issue as a 4 or 5 on the likert scale. This shows a positive correlation between the two variables, which supports the hypothesis. H5. H5 stated that the amount of perceived coverage of a candidate receives affects how likely someone who watches television news often would be to vote for that candidate. The survey asked participants to rate how often they hear about each candidate in the news on a likert scale and then asked them to rate how likely they would be to vote for the same candidates on a likert scale. 32 people noted that they see Mitt Romney on televised news often (4 or 5 rating on the likert scale) while 9 people said they would be likely to vote for him (4 or 5 on the likert scale). Out of the 24 people who said they saw Rick Santorum often on televised news, five of them said they would be likely to vote for him. 16 people said that they saw Newt Gingrich often, but only one person said they were likely to vote for him. Finally 12 people said that they saw or heard about Ron Paul often and 3 people said they were likely to vote for him. The trend in this set of data is that the correlation between the two variables (perceived news coverage and likeness of voting for a candidate), but there is one outlier: Newt Gingrich. Due to this, there is not a significant enough correlation to support this hypothesis. H5 was not supported by the research.

Agenda setting in political news 15 RQ1. The research question for this study asked whether or not there is a correlation between the news station people watch and which issues people perceive as important. In order to operationalize these variables participants were asked to rate how often they watched news stations on a likert scale and rate how important several issues were to them on a likert scale. Of the 6 participants who said they watched Fox news often (4 or 5 on the likert scale), the most important issues were candidates past history, the economy and jobs creation, and foreign policy. Out of the 13 participants who indicated they watched CNN often, the most important issues were candidates character, the economy and jobs creation, and environmental issues. Of the 10 participants who stated that MSNBC was the network they watched most often, the most important issues were candidates character, the economy and jobs creation, and social issues. Of the 10 participants who indicated that they watched other news stations often the most important issues were the economy and jobs creation, foreign policy, and environmental issues. As the data shows there are many over laps in the findings, which lead to the conclusion that there are no correlations between the variables and that this research question cannot be supported. Discussion The first four hypotheses showed positive correlations that are in line with the agenda setting theory. They were all supported by the research, which shows that agenda setting is prevalent in television news coverage of political primaries. This coincides with the past literature on the subject of agenda setting in political news coverage, including that of McCombs and Shaw (1972).

Agenda setting in political news 16 Although the fifth hypothesis was not supported by the research, it does show that in some cases agenda setting may make political candidates that are shown often on television more likely to be elected. The inconsistencies in the data in this research may be due to other factors and the idea that agenda setting affects which candidates people vote for should be studied with more depth before it is ruled out completely. The studies research question was not supported, which asserts that agenda setting is part of the media as a whole and not something that is related to certain stations. This fits with most of the literature used as review for this study. Although this research question was not supported further research on the subject is needed for a firm conclusion. Conclusion This study found that agenda setting is apparent in news coverage of the 2012 Republican Primary. It also found that the more television news a person watches the more likely they are to be affected by agenda setting in political news. Finally, this study shows that agenda setting may have its limits and that there may be other factors at play that effect how people perceive which issues are important. Limitations Although this study did find that agenda setting is part of television news coverage of political primaries, it does have some limitations that are noteworthy. First, the sample in this study was a non-probability sample, which means that the sample is not random and that representativeness cannot be ensured. Due to this the study cannot be generalized across the entire population. Furthermore, the sample size was very small, which also hinders representativeness.

Agenda setting in political news 17 Another limitation of this study is that many of the participants may not have been extremely knowledgeable on the subject of the 2012 political primary. Although all the participants said they knew something about the primary race, it is difficult to judge exactly how much each person knew, which may have skewed the results. Finally, there is a good chance that other factors may have affected the results of this study. Not all participants were members of the Republican Party, which means they may have rated the candidates more harshly or said that they would not vote for any of them. Also, the population that this research studied was undergraduate students who most likely get their news from a variety of sources, so the information they have received about the primary was not purely from television news. Recommendations For future researchers on the topic of agenda setting in a political primary, I have two recommendations. First, make sure that political affiliation is a variable in your study, or at least a screening question, so that you do have conflicting values to compete with during your research. Next, a more professional age group may be more suited for this study. Collegiate students do not use television news for the majority of their information gathering, which makes them difficult subjects for a study such as this one.

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