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AreYouAPessimistorOptimist?

Haveyouevermetahappypessimist?

Theresawidespreadperceptionthatcongenitalpessimistsweallknowafewarerealists,imbued withsuperiorintellect,historicalinsight,andprescience.Conversely,optimistsareoftenperceivedas Pollyannaish,naive,ignorantofthefacts,indulginginwishfulthinking,ortryingtosellyousomething.

Inarecentarticletitled"17ReasonsToBeCheerful,"authorMattRidleybelievestheworldhasnever beenbetter,andwillgetevenbetter.Herearesomeofhisthoughtsforyoutothinkabout:

Povertyisnosediving.Therichgetricher,butthepoordoevenbetter.Between1980and 2000,thepoordoubledtheirconsumption.TheChineseare10timesricherandliveabout25 yearslongerthantheydid50yearsago.Nigeriansaretwiceasrichandliveninemoreyearson average.Thepercentageoftheworld'speoplelivinginabsolutepovertyhasdroppedbyover half.TheUnitedNationsestimatespovertywasreducedmoreinthepast50yearsthaninthe previous500years. Theenvironmentisbetterthanyouthink.IntheUnitedStates,rivers,lakes,seas,andairare gettingcleanerallthetime.Acartodayemitslesspollutiontravelingatfullspeedthanaparked cardidfromleaksin1970. Globaltradeenrichesourlives.By9a.m.,IhaveshavedwithanAmericanrazor,eatenbread madewithFrenchwheatandspreadwithNewZealandbutterandSpanishmarmalade,brewed teafromSriLanka,dressedinclothesmadefromIndiancottonandAustralianwool,puton shoesofChineseleatherandMalaysianrubber,andreadanewspaperprintedonFinnishpaper withChineseink.Ihaveconsumedminisculefractionsofthelaborofhundredsofpeople.This isthemagicoftradeandspecialization.Selfsufficiencyispoverty. Greatideaskeepcoming.Themoreweprosper,themorewecanprosper.Themorewe invent,themoreinventionsbecomepossible.Theworldofthingsisoftensubjectto diminishingreturns.Theworldofideasisnot.Theeverchangingexchangeofideascausesthe everincreasingrateofinnovationinthemodernworld.Thereisn'tevenatheoreticalpossibility ofexhaustingoursuppliesofideas,discoveries,andinventions. Optimistsareright.For200years,pessimistshavehadalltheheadlineseventhoughoptimists havebeenrightfarmoreoften.Thereisimmensevestedinterestinpessimism.Nocharityever raisedmoneybysayingthingsaregettingbetter.Nojournalistevergotthefrontpagewritinga storyabouthowdisasterwasnowlesslikely.Pressuregroupsandtheircustomersinthemedia searcheventhemostcheerfulstatisticsforglimmersofdoom.Dontbebrowbeatendareto beanoptimist!

Youwillhaveyourownperceptionsastowhetheritisthemarketpessimistsoroptimistswhohave beenmorerightthanwrong.Ifyoulookbackatthestockmarketoverthelast50years,theoptimists win. Areyouanoptimistorapessimist? TheabovematerialwaspreparedbyPeakAdvisorAlliance.


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