Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
EV/EBITDA (x) 23.5 18.8 ROCE 17.7 23.3 23.7 23.8 10.4
Shareholding Pattern (%) We expect the company’s revenues to post a CAGR of 32% during FY06-09E due
Promoters 75 to favourable demographic factors, increasing expenditure on personal consumption
and deregulation in the northern markets driving strong volume growth.
FIs/MFs 2
The merger of its group companies and the acquisition of Karnataka Breweries
FIIs 15
will see an increase in owned capacity which will increase operational efficiencies
Public & Others 8 and meet the volume growth in the industry. We expect operating margins to
improve from 17.3% in FY06 to 19.4% in FY07.
Relative Performance
We have valued the company at 30x FY08E EPS of Rs. 6.5 which gives us a
250
200
target price of Rs. 196. At the current price of Rs. 209, we feel the stock is richly
150 valued and fully captures the future growth prospects. We initiate coverage with
100 a Market Performer rating. However, we feel the company has a strong growth
50
potential and will continue to enjoy a significant premium due to its market
0
leadership and rich brand equity in the domestic market.
Dec-04
Jun-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-05
Apr-06
© B&K Securities 2007 Analyst Declaration: I, Ashit Desai, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my
personal views about the subject securities and issuers I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or
All Rights Reserved
will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation or view expressed in this report.
Attention is drawn to the disclaimer and
other information on Page 2 B&K Research is also available on Bloomberg <BNKI>, Thomson First Call & Investext.
B&K RESEARCH JANUARY 2007
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UNITED BREWERIES 2
B&K RESEARCH JANUARY 2007
Investment arguments
Dominant player in the industry
United Breweries, a market leader in the 104 mn cases domestic beer market commands 40%
market share and its 50:50 joint venture with Scottish and Newcastle (S&N), known as
Millennium Alcobev commands another 10% market share. The company has the largest
network of breweries across India which helps it to increases its presence in the highly regulated
domestic alcohol market. We believe the company with its leadership position in the domestic
market and the strong presence of its Kingfisher brand will be the largest beneficiary of the
current boom in the domestic beer market which saw a growth of 14% in FY06.
6%
(Rs. Bn)
8%
15000 15,000
4% 6%
10000
2% 10,000
5000 4%
0 0% 5,000 2%
Mar-01
Mar-02
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
0 0%
(E)
Per-Capita Income (Rs.) Growth % Personal disposable income (Rs. bn) Growth %
Source: CMIE
UNITED BREWERIES 3
B&K RESEARCH JANUARY 2007
500,000
(%)
400,000 59
300,000
58
200,000
57
100,000
0 56
2000 2005 2010 2015
Source: UNPD
UNITED BREWERIES 4
B&K RESEARCH JANUARY 2007
Investment concerns
High tax incidence
The average tax incidence on beer in the domestic market which is imposed at state level is
extremely high at 42% compared to other international markets. Since the taxes on alcohol are
one of the largest contributors to state revenue the segment continues to remain highly taxed
by the state governments.
UNITED BREWERIES 5
B&K RESEARCH JANUARY 2007
Valuations
The beer industry in India is expected to benefit from favourable demographic factors, rise in
per capita income leading to an increase in expenditure on personal consumption and western
influences bringing about a change in lifestyle. The per capita consumption of beer in India
which currently is extremely low at 0.7 litres per annum is expected to see rapid growth due to
these favourable factors.
United Breweries, the largest player in domestic beer market with a 50% market share (including
MAPL) continues to remain the prime beneficiary of the strong consumption growth in the
domestic beer industry. With further capacity expansions across India, acquisition of a key
contract brewery in Karnataka (KBDL) and the expected turnaround of MAPL we see
significant growth in the companies’ revenues and profits.
Sep-05
Jun-04
Sep-04
Nov-04
Feb-05
Jul-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
May-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-05
Aug-06
0
Mar-04
Sep-04
Jun-04
Nov-04
Feb-05
Jul-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
May-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-05
Aug-06
We expect the company to register a CAGR of 32% in net sales and 61% in adjusted net profit
during FY06-09E. The company has been re-rated post FY04 and currently enjoys a significant
premium due to its leadership position in the domestic market which promises strong growth
prospects. We have valued the company at 30x FY08E EPS of Rs. 6.5 which gives us a target price
of Rs. 196. At the current price of Rs. 209, we feel that the stock is richly valued and fully captures
the future growth prospects. We initiate coverage with a Market Performer rating on the stock.
However, we feel that the company with a 50% market share in the domestic market where
entry barriers are high and per capita consumption is extremely low at 0.7 litres per annum has
a strong growth potential and will continue to enjoy a significant premium due to its market
leadership and rich brand equity in the domestic market.
Peer comparison
Company EPS (US$) PE (x) Mcap Mcap/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE (%)
CY05/FY06 CY06/FY07 CY07/FY08 CY05/FY06 CY06/FY07 CY07/FY08 US$ mn CY05/FY06 CY06/FY07 CY07/FY08 CY05/FY06
United Breweries 0.04 0.12 0.15 110.2 38.1 32.2 1,018 6.6 23.5 18.8 10.7
SAB Miller 1.0 1.2 1.3 21.9 19.6 17.2 34,824 2.3 10.5 9.4 13.6
Inbev 1.9 3.1 3.6 33.8 20.1 17.4 38,124 2.6 8.7 7.9 9.1
Anheuser Busch 2.4 2.5 2.8 20.8 19.3 17.2 39,082 2.6 11.9 11.3 61.2
S&N 0.5 0.7 0.7 21.5 15.6 14.7 9,867 1.7 12.6 12.0 8.3
Source: Bloomberg, Company Reports
UNITED BREWERIES 6
B&K RESEARCH JANUARY 2007
UNITED BREWERIES 7
B&K RESEARCH JANUARY 2007
Industry outlook
The potable alcohol market in India is segmented into beer, Indian Made Foreign Liquor (IMFL)
and country liquor. The country has the existence of a large unorganised sector i.e. the country
liquor market which is estimated to be more than 60% of the total alcohol market in India. Currently,
India has one of the lowest per capita consumption of alcohol in the world with beer at an abysmal
low level compared to other countries at 0.7 litres per annum and IMFL at 0.82 litres per annum.
Per capita beer consumption per annum Total size of beer market
80 600000
70 500000
60
400000
50
(hl 000)
(Litres)
40 300000
30 200000
20
100000
10
0 0
India China South Russia North Europe India China South Russia North Europe
Africa America Africa America
The 104 mn cases Indian beer market which saw a CAGR of 8% since FY01 recorded a strong
growth of 14% in FY06. Beer sales have picked up post FY04 with a rapid growth in the Indian
economy resulting in higher disposable incomes among the youth, western influences resulting
in a change in perception of alcohol, and favourable demographics in the domestic market
which have improved the prospects of this industry promising strong growth in future. Beer
which is considered to be the preferred entry level drink among the youth is expected to
benefit the most from these favourable factors.
60 8.0%
6.0%
40
4.0%
20
2.0%
0 0.0%
FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06
The domestic beer market is largely dominated by United Breweries which holds almost 50%
market share along with MAPL and SAB Miller with close to 33% after the acquisition of
Fosters brand in India.
UNITED BREWERIES 8
B&K RESEARCH JANUARY 2007
Regional break-up
South
South continues to lead the The southern region records the highest consumption of beer in India where the extremely hot
market with a 47% market climate is favourable for the consumption of beer. The region consisting of Andhra Pradesh,
share
Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala constitute 47% of the total beer sales in the country. Andhra
Pradesh records the highest consumption followed by Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala.
West
The west which constitutes 27% of the total sales records high consumption in Maharashtra.
While Gujarat continues to remain a dry area where alcohol consumption is prohibited, Madhya
Pradesh and Goa contribute very little to the volumes in the region. However, the per capita
consumption in Goa is among the highest in India.
North
The northern region which faces extremely cold weather during the winter season traditionally
prefers spirits to beer with the demand for beer coming mainly during the summer months. The
region which currently constitutes around 20% of the volume sales is expected to grow rapidly
due to change in reforms in Punjab, Haryana and Chandigarh which are seeing growth in excess
of 300%. Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh remain the largest consumers in the northern region.
East
The eastern region currently constitutes only 6-7% of the total beer sales and is expected to
see moderate growth in future mainly due to the poor socio-economic condition of the states.
While other cheap spirits are the preferred drink in the region, the strong beer leads the beer
segment with more than 80% of the total demand for beer in the region.
20%
27%
35%
65% 6%
47%
UNITED BREWERIES 9
B&K RESEARCH JANUARY 2007
Regulatory environment
Alcohol – a state subject with The Indian alcohol market is highly regulated and highly taxed by state governments. Alcohol
high restrictions policy in India remains a state subject with each state having full control of alcohol legislation,
state excise rates and the organisation of production and sale of alcohol. There are restrictions
on inter-state movement of alcohol which has resulted in the presence of small inefficient units
in each state reducing operational efficiencies. In fact, the restriction on movement of alcohol
between states has resulted in the domestic alcohol industry to function like 28 different countries.
There are also restrictions on brand entry, advertising, pricing and acquiring licences for
greenfield breweries which result into further entry barriers for players planning to enter the
Indian beer market. These restrictions help the existing players as these entry barriers make it
extremely difficult for new players to establish their presence and compete with the current
well established brands in the domestic market.
Distribution structure
The distribution of alcohol in the country is also a matter of state policy and follows one of the
three models listed below.
Majority of states follow the Government distribution – In this market the state government undertakes the pricing and
government distribution model distribution under its territory. Around 65% of the domestic alcohol market (in volume terms)
follows this model of distribution. In this model a representative body of the state government
(e.g. TASMAC in Tamil Nadu) purchases alcohol from the manufacturer and distributes it
through its own retail network.
The states of Delhi, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala follow the government
distribution model.
Auction market system – Under this system, the state government auctions licences for the
sale of alcohol in a particular geographical territory. The highest bidder (contractor) then
becomes the sole distributor of alcohol in that territory and distributes the products through
its own retail network. Around 15% of the domestic alcohol market (in volume terms) follows
this model of distribution.
Auction markets are present in Rajasthan, Bihar and Himachal Pradesh. These auctions however
lead to monopolies and cartels which results in high prices of beer driving down its consumption.
Free market system – This system is beneficial for both the alcohol companies and the end
consumers as the pricing is market determined. Under this system the government sells licenses
to applicants for a fee which entitles them to sell beer in the market. It represents more than
20% of the domestic alcohol market (in volume terms). The states of Maharashtra, Uttar
Pradesh, Goa and Madhya Pradesh follow this distribution model. Recently, the change in
policy in Punjab and Haryana has seen the government changing the licencing system from
auction system to the free market system driving strong demand for beer in these regions.
UNITED BREWERIES 10
B&K RESEARCH JANUARY 2007
10.6%
5.4%
UB Group
3.6%
SAB Miller
47.5% Mt. Shivalik
Mohan Meakin
Others
32.9%
Source: Company
United Breweries and SAB The Indian beer market is highly dominated by United Breweries controlling close to 50%
Miller control 80% of the market share (including MAPL) and SAB Miller with around 33% market share after the
domestic market
takeover of Shaw Wallace brewing business and Fosters India operations. These two players
dominate the domestic market with more than 80% of the market share.
United Breweries currently owns 14 breweries across India with a brewing capacity of close to
3.5 mn hectolitres compared o SAB Millers 11 breweries (including Fosters Aurangabad facility)
with a total capacity of ~2.6 mn hectolitres. The other players such as Mohan Meakins and
Mt. Shivalik have regional presence in the domestic market.
Key brands
UB SAB Miller Mohan Meakins Mt. Shivalik
Kingfisher Mild Castle Lager Golden Eagle Thunderbolt
Kingfisher Strong Haywards 2000 Golden Peacock
UB Export Haywards 5000
Kalyani Black Label Knock Out
Sandpiper* Royal Challenge
Zingaro* Fosters
*Brands of MAPL – joint venture of UB and S&N
United Breweries with its flagship brand Kingfisher holds 67% market share in the mild beer
segment and 27% in the strong beer segment. The company has managed to garner a 27%
market share in the strong beer segment within just five years of the launch of its strong beer
“Kingfisher Strong”. On the other hand, SAB Miller the company’s closest competitor enjoys
a significant presence in the strong beer segment with its Haywards and Knock Out brands.
UNITED BREWERIES 11
B&K RESEARCH JANUARY 2007
the brewing business of Shaw Wallace and its recent acquisition of the Indian operations of
Fosters has led to the beer market being dominated by these two players. The recent acquisitions
in the domestic market have been at a significant premium which indicates the underlying
potential of the domestic market. We expect this consolidation to benefit the big players in
terms of improved bargaining power with the distributors and bottle manufacturers.
Recent acquisition details
Year Mergers Equity Amount Market Key Brands
and Acquisitions Stake (%) (Rs. mn) Share (%)
August 2006 SAB Miller – Fosters 100 5,400 2.3 Fosters, Amberro
May 2005 SAB Miller – 50 1,580 ~30 Haywards 2000, Haywards 5000,
Shaw Wallace Knock Out, Royal Challenge Premium
May 2005 S&N – 17.5 2,173 40 Kingfisher Premium, Kingfisher Strong,
United Breweries UB Export
210
('000 tonnes)
1600 800
1500 600 200
190
(x)
1400 400
1300 200 180
1200 0 170
1990-91
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
160
150
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Apr-03
Jul-03
Oct-03
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Jul-06
Production (in '000 tonnes)
Area under cultivation (in '000 hectares)
Glass bottles, another important raw material for the company constitutes more than 40% of
its operating expenses. Since the process used to manufacture glass bottles is highly energy
consuming an increase in crude prices could result in an increase in the bottle prices. We
believe the industry would continue to face margin pressure due increasing raw material
prices. However, large players which enjoy flexible sourcing arrangements and bargaining
power over distributors and raw material suppliers would continue to maintain their margins.
UNITED BREWERIES 12
B&K RESEARCH JANUARY 2007
UNITED BREWERIES 13
B&K RESEARCH JANUARY 2007
Company background
Kingfisher – the largest selling United Breweries came into existence upon de-merger of the beer business from the erstwhile
beer in India United Breweries Ltd. The resulting United Breweries became the main brewing company of
the UB Group while the latter was renamed as United Breweries (Holdings) Limited. The
company has been associated with brewing for over five decades and commands a market
share of around 40% in the domestic market. Its flagship brand Kingfisher continues to
remain the largest selling beer in the mild and strong segments.
The company is a part of the US$ 2 bn UB Group which is the leader in the domestic alcohol
market through its flagship companies “United Breweries” in the beer segment and “United
Spirits” in the IMFL segment. The group headed by Mr. Vijay Mallya has diversified interests
in aviation, pharmaceuticals, fertilisers, media and infrastructure. With aggressive acquisitions
and expansions in the domestic market, the UB Group currently holds the largest number of
breweries in India.
Stake: 37.5%
UB Group
UNITED BREWERIES 14
B&K RESEARCH JANUARY 2007
Business analysis
Break-up of revenue (FY06) – Rs. 9,246 mn
11% 2%
Sales
Other Income
87%
Source: Company
A network of 14 owned and The company recorded a 33% increase in net sales to Rs. 6.87 bn in FY06 on the back of
11 contract breweries across strong growth of Kingfisher Strong which registered a 36% growth in FY06. The company
India
receives 87% of its revenues from the sale of beer from its owned breweries whereas close to
11% of its revenue is received from contract breweries which manufactures and sell beer in
the name of UB brands in regions where UB does not have a brewery or adequate capacity.
The company has 14 owned breweries and has another 11 contract breweries which account
for more than 20% of its volume sales.
Source: Company
UNITED BREWERIES 15
B&K RESEARCH JANUARY 2007
The company will continue to The company has clearly outperformed the industry in the last five years with volumes growing
outperform industry at a CAGR of 14% since FY02 against the industry average of 8%. The last year has seen a
pick-up in the consumption of beer due to increasing disposable income resulting from a
growing economy making beer more affordable and due to some policy changes in the north
resulting in low price of beer driving such growth. The company recorded strong growth in
volumes at 19.2% in FY06, whereas the domestic beer industry grew at 13%. We expect the
company to outpace the industry growth in the coming years mainly due to the strong growth
expected in the strong beer segment through its Kingfisher Strong brand.
Growth in UB vs. Industry
120 25%
100 20%
80
15%
mn cases
60
10%
40
20 5%
0 0%
FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06
Brand portfolio
Key brands Category Alcohol content (%)
UB
Kingfisher Premium Mild <6
Kingfisher Strong Strong 6-8
UB Export Lager Mild <6
London Pilsner Strong 6-8
Kalyani Black Label Mild <6
UB Premium Ice Mild <6
Millennium Alcobev
Sandpiper Mild <6
Zingaro Strong 6-8
Kalyani Black Label Strong Strong 6-8
UNITED BREWERIES 16
B&K RESEARCH JANUARY 2007
25 50%
20 40%
30%
(mn cases) 15
20%
10
10%
5 0%
0 -10%
FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06
KF Mild KF Strong
Growth % - KF Mild Growth % - KF Strong
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06
UNITED BREWERIES 17
B&K RESEARCH JANUARY 2007
Other brands
Other brands of UB The company’s other brands include UB Export Lager, London Pilsner, Kalyani Black Label
Brands Mn cases (FY06) Premium and UB Premium Ice which have regional presence and sell about 5 mn cases.
UB Export 2 Among these only Kalyani Black Label and UB Export have significant volumes with each
selling around 2 mn cases. Due to its regional presence and low brand recognition we expect
Kalyani Black Label 2
these brands to grow in line with the growth in the respective states.
Others 1
Millennium Alcobev Pvt. Ltd.
Millennium Alcobev Pvt. Ltd. (MAPL) is a 50:50 joint venture between United Breweries and
Scottish and Newcastle which operates 4 breweries, 1 each in Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra,
Haryana and Andhra Pradesh. The company’s brands include Sandpiper, Zingaro and Kalyani
Black Label Strong which enjoy a 10% market share in the domestic beer market. The company’s
products have regional preference and are priced lower compared to other brands resulting
into lower margins. It has been in losses since it was formed in FY04 and has a very high
proportion of debt. Though, the company has a negative net worth it accounts for a 10%
market share in the domestic market and meet almost 33% of the capacity requirements of
United Breweries. It has also recently undergone a debt restructuring and savings from this are
expected to accrue from 2HFY07. Though, the company is expected to turnaround by next
year, we do not see it contributing significantly to the bottomline of United Breweries.
UNITED BREWERIES 18
B&K RESEARCH JANUARY 2007
Financials
Growth in net sales
Net sales to increase The company, a major beneficiary of the increasing consumption of beer in the domestic
significantly due to market is expected to post a CAGR of 32% in net sales during FY06-09E. We expect realisations
acquisitions and capacity
to increase by 3% each year due to price increases across key states. The Indian beer market
expansions
where per capita beer consumption is extremely low at 0.7 litres per annum is set to benefit
from a growing economy and favourable demographic factors. Further, the company’s recent
acquisition of KBDL and the expansion of capacities across India will contribute significantly
to the growth in net sales.
Growth in net sales
18,000 60%
16,000 Net Sales (Rs. mn)
Growth % 50%
14,000
12,000 40%
(Rs. mn)
10,000
30%
8,000
6,000 20%
4,000
10%
2,000
0 0%
FY05 FY06 FY07E FY08E FY09E
3,500 25%
EBITDA
3,000 EBITDA margins %
20%
2,500
2,000 15%
(Rs. mn)
(%)
1,500 10%
1,000
5%
500
0 0%
FY05 FY06 FY07E FY08E FY09E
UNITED BREWERIES 19
B&K RESEARCH JANUARY 2007
1,800 8
Adjusted Net Profit (Rs. mn)
1,600 7
Adjusted EPS (Rs.)
1,400 6
1,200
5
(Rs. mn) 1,000
(Rs.)
4
800
3
600
400 2
200 1
0 0
FY05 FY06 FY07E FY08E FY09E
20.0
15.0
(x)
10.0
5.0
ROE % ROCE %
0.0
FY05 FY06 FY07E FY08E FY09E
UNITED BREWERIES 20
B&K RESEARCH JANUARY 2007
Detailed financials
Income Statement
Yr. ending 31st Mar (Rs. mn) FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07E FY08E FY09E
Selling & Distribution expenses (882) (1,102) (1,569) (2,390) (2,979) (3,541)
UNITED BREWERIES 21
B&K RESEARCH JANUARY 2007
Balance Sheet
Yr. ending 31st Mar (Rs. mn) FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07E FY08E FY09E
Fixed assets (Net block) 1,110 1,138 2,104 3,187 4,156 4,348
Other provisions 47 51 42 42 42 42
Total equity & liabilities 6,124 6,893 9,304 11,452 13,784 15,845
UNITED BREWERIES 22
B&K RESEARCH JANUARY 2007
Chg in loans & advances (1,562) (63) (646) (1,086) (709) (952)
Cash flow from operations (a) (1,741) (286) (669) (310) 807 917
Cash flow from investing (b) (568) (505) (413) (1,336) (1,325) (620)
Free cash flow (a+b) (2,309) (791) (1,082) (1,645) (518) 297
Cash flow from financing (c) 2,351 807 2,196 559 467 (108)
UNITED BREWERIES 23
B&K RESEARCH JANUARY 2007
Net sales 6,873 10,559 13,242 15,738 Pre-tax profit 619 1,738 2,134 2,542
Growth (%) 33.4 53.6 25.4 18.9 Depreciation 321 254 356 428
Operating expenses (5,686) (8,508) (10,644) (12,648) Chg in working capital (1,182) (1,831) (1,042) (1,290)
Operating profit 1,187 2,051 2,597 3,090 Total tax paid (427) (471) (640) (763)
EBITDA 1,187 2,051 2,597 3,090 Cash flow from oper. (a) (669) (310) 807 917
Growth (%) 271.7 72.8 26.6 19.0 Capital expenditure (1,287) (1,337) (1,325) (620)
Depreciation (209) (254) (356) (428) Chg in investments 874 1 0 0
Other income 185 203 223 246 Cash flow from inv. (b) (413) (1,336) (1,325) (620)
EBIT 1,163 2,000 2,465 2,908 Free cash flow (a+b) (1,082) (1,645) (518) 297
Interest paid (239) (262) (331) (366) Equity raised/(repaid) 2,506 0 0 0
Pre-tax profit 924 1,738 2,134 2,542 Debt raised/(repaid) (252) 650 650 100
(before non-recurring items) Dividend (incl. tax) (57) (91) (183) (208)
Non-recurring items (305) 0 0 0 Cash flow from fin. (c) 2,196 559 467 (108)
Pre-tax profit 619 1,738 2,134 2,542 Net chg in cash (a+b+c) 1,115 (1,087) (51) 190