Monthly Update | September 2012

October 3, 2012 Yaresh Kothari

+91 22 39357800 Ext: 6844 yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com

Automobile Sector
Gearing up for festival season
For September 2012, automakers posted poor yoy sales; however, yoy comparison renders meaningless in view of the shift in festival season to October-November this year as against October in 2011. Sequentially, automakers registered a healthy growth (ex Hero MotoCorp) which surprised us positively. While momentum in the sales of light commercial vehicles (LCV) and utility vehicle (UV) was maintained, medium and heavy commercial vehicles (MHCV), tractors and two-wheelers sales continued to witness a challenging environment due to demand slowdown. Among auto majors, Mahindra and Mahindra (MM; automotive division), Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) and Ashok Leyland (AL) reported a significantly better-than-expected growth; Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) registered a sluggish performance led by build-up in inventory. Going ahead, we remain cautiously optimistic on auto sales as we expect demand to revive partially led by festival season buying. Tata Motors (TTMT) reported marginally better-than-expected volumes led by a strong 15.2% yoy (11.4% mom) growth in LCV sales. Total volumes however, registered a fall of 3.8% yoy (up 5.5% mom) as passenger vehicle (PV) sales declined by 17.2% yoy (2.8% mom). Commercial vehicle (CV) sales posted a modest growth of 3.2% yoy (9.4% mom) due to a 16.6% yoy (up 5.3% mom) decline in MHCV sales which were impacted by slowdown in industrial activity. AL registered a 20.7% yoy (12.6% mom) growth during the month on the back of strong momentum in its small commercial vehicle, Dost. Total volumes ex-Dost registered an 11.7% yoy (up by a strong 15.1% mom) decline on account of sluggish MHCV demand led by slowdown in economic activity. MSIL posted a better-than-expected sales growth of 9.8% yoy (73.6% mom) as production at Manesar plant continued to improve post the lock-out. Volumes during the month also benefitted from a ramp-up in production at the Gurgaon plant ahead of the festival season. While domestic sales increased 12.7% yoy (77.1% mom), exports sales were down 23.1% yoy (up 28.9% mom). The sales in the mini segment, which had been on a declining spree since the last one year, turned positive during the month registering a 4.9% yoy (77.5% mom) growth. MM continued with its strong sales momentum in the automotive segment (aided by XUV5OO and new Verito) registering a 9.5% yoy (5.5% mom) growth in volumes, which was ahead of our estimates. Total volumes however, registered a 0.6% yoy decline (up by a robust 15.8% mom) led by an 18.6% yoy decline in tractor sales. On a mom basis, however, tractor volumes recovered 51.8%. During the month, MM launched a compact sports utility vehicle, Quanto at an attractive price point of `5.8lakh (ex-showroom Thane). Two-wheelers and three-wheelers: Bajaj Auto (BJAUT) reported volumes in line with our estimates, though; total volumes posted a decline of 13.8% yoy. On a mom basis though, total volumes improved 4.4% led by new launches - Pulsar 200NS (~9,000 units) and Discover 125ST (~35,000 units). HMCL posted extremely weak volumes for September 2012 as total sales declined by 26.4% yoy (8.8% mom) led by slowdown in retail sales. TVS Motor (TVSL) posted marginally better-than-expected sales (up 10% mom) driven by a sharp sequential jump in motorcycle (up 18.9% mom) and three-wheeler (28.1% mom) volumes.
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Auto Sector Update | September 2012

Tata Motors
TTMT registered better-than-expected volumes driven by strong growth in the LCV segment TTMT reported marginally better-than-expected volumes for September 2012 led by a strong 15.2% yoy (11.4% mom) growth in light commercial vehicle (LCV) sales. Total volumes however, registered a decline of 3.8% yoy (up 5.5% mom) to 75,773 units as PV sales declined by 17.2% yoy (2.8% mom). The weakness in the PV segment was on account of a sharp fall in Indica (down 23% yoy), Indigo (down 52% yoy) and utility vehicle volumes (down 15% yoy). Nano volumes on the other hand jumped 87% yoy during the month. Commercial vehicle sales volumes recorded a modest growth of 3.2% yoy (9.4% mom) mainly on account of a 16.6% yoy (up 5.3% mom) decline in MHCV volumes which continued to be impacted by slowdown in industrial activity.

Exhibit 1: Tata Motors Sales trend

Segment Total sales MHCV LCV Total CV Utility vehicles Cars Total PV Exports (Included above)
Source: Company, Angel Research

September September % chg 2012 2011 75,773 16,332 37,007 53,339 4,640 17,794 22,434 5,441 78,783 32,118 51,701 (3.8) 15.2 3.2 19,583 (16.6)

YTD FY2013 409,864 82,639 192,662 275,301 25,690 108,873 134,563 27,749

YTD % chg FY2012 399,470 166,886 270,440 22,630 106,400 129,030 2.6 15.4 1.8 13.5 2.3 4.3 103,554 (20.2)

5,339 (13.1) 21,743 (18.2) 27,082 (17.2) 6,217 (12.5)

31,078 (10.7)

Exhibit 2: CV segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Jul-11 Mar-11 Nov-10 Nov-11 Mar-12 Sep-10 Sep-11 Jul-12 May-11 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-11 Jan-12 Volume(LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 (5.0) (10.0)

Source: Company, Angel Research

October 3, 2012

Auto Sector Update | September 2012

Exhibit 3: PV segment Monthly sales trend

(units 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Jul-11 Mar-11 Nov-10 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Sep-10 Sep-11 May-11 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-11 Jan-12 Volume(LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 (20.0) (40.0) (60.0)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Ashok Leyland
Demand pick-up in the southern market and sales momentum in Dost enabled AL to post strong better-than-expected sales ALs sales for September 2012 were better-than-expected. Sales of Dost surged to all time high levels which helped the company to post a strong growth of 20.7% yoy (12.6% mom) in volumes to 10,623 units. Total volumes ex-Dost registered an 11.7% yoy (up by a strong 15.1% mom) decline to 7,596 units on account of sluggish demand led by slowdown in economic activity. Dosts sales continued to be strong at 3,027 units, up 6.8% mom.

Exhibit 4: Ashok Leyland Sales trend

September September 2012 2011 Total sales CV (ex. Dost) Dost 10,623 7,596 3,027 8,803 8,607 196 % chg 20.7 (11.7) YTD FY2013 57,327 41,414 15,913 YTD FY2012 43,146 42,936 210 % chg 32.9 (3.5) -

Source: Company, Angel Research

October 3, 2012

Auto Sector Update | September 2012

Exhibit 5: CV segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 100 80 60 40 20 0 (20) (40)

Jul-11

Mar-11

Nov-10

Nov-11

Mar-12

Sep-10

Sep-11

Jul-12

May-11

Source: Company, Angel Research

Maruti Suzuki
MSIL recorded better-than-expected volumes led by ramp-up in production at its plants ahead of the festival season MSIL posted better-than-expected sales growth of 9.8% yoy (73.6% mom) to 93,988 units as production at Manesar plant continued to improve post the lock-out. Volumes during the month also benefitted from a ramp-up in production at the Gurgaon plant ahead of the festival season. While domestic sales volumes increased 12.7% yoy (77.1% mom) to 88,801units; export sales at 5,187 units were down 23.1% yoy (up 28.9% mom). The sales in the mini segment, which had been on a declining spree since last one year, turned positive during the month registering a 4.9% yoy (77.5% mom) growth in volumes to 39,150 units. The super compact segment sales volumes also grew strongly by 24.3% yoy (279.1% mom) driven by the Dzire. Utility vehicles on the other hand posted a 5% sequential growth led by continued momentum in Ertiga volumes.

October 3, 2012

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-11

Jan-12

Auto Sector Update | September 2012

Exhibit 6: Maruti Sales trend

Segment Total sales A: Mini: M800, A-star, Alto, Wagon R A: Compact: Swift, Estilo, Ritz A: Super Compact: Dzire A: Mid-size: SX4 A: Executive: Kizashi Total passenger vehicles B: UV - Gypsy, Grand Vitara, Ertiga C: Vans: Omni, Eeco Total domestic sales Total exports
Source: Company, Angel Research

September September 2012 2011 93,988 85,565 39,150 17,813 11,694 288 12 68,957 7,224 12,620 88,801 5,187 37,324 19,722 9,411 196 14 66,667 11,737 78,816 6,749

% chg

YTD YTD % chg FY2013 FY2012 9.8 526,272 533,833 (1.4) 4.9 185,023 234,900 (21.2)

(9.7) 112,617 100,515 24.3 46.9 (14.3) 73,150 2,861 35 40,366 59,166 53,054 45,383

12.0 61.2

9,909 (71.1) 171 (79.5) (4.4) 3,846 949.6 78,365 (24.5) 0.0 60,744 (12.7)

3.4 373,686 390,878 7.5 (23.1)

412 1,653.4

12.7 473,218 473,089

Exhibit 7: PV segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Volume(LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 (20.0) (40.0) (60.0)

Mar-11

Mar-12

Sep-10

Sep-11

Nov-10

May-11

Nov-11

May-12

Source: Company, Angel Research

Mahindra and Mahindra

MMs automotive segment continues to witness strong traction; tractor volumes recovered slightly during the month MM continued with its strong sales momentum in the automotive segment registering a 9.5% yoy (5.5% mom) growth in volumes to 48,342 units, which was slightly ahead of our estimates. Total volumes however, registered a 0.6% yoy decline (up by a robust 15.8% mom) to 68,427 units led by 18.6% yoy decline in tractor sales. On a mom basis, however, tractor volumes recovered 51.8% to 20,085 units. The automotive segment continued to drive the overall volumes of the company led by a 22.4% yoy growth (9.1% mom) in the PV segment, aided by the XUV5OO and the new Verito. The four-wheeler pick-up segment posted a healthy growth of 7.4% yoy (1.1% mom). MMs three-wheeler sales, however, declined 17.2% yoy (flat mom) to 6,048 units.

October 3, 2012

Sep-12

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jul-11

Jul-12

Auto Sector Update | September 2012

During the month, MM launched a compact sports utility vehicle, Quanto at an attractive price point of `5.8lakh (ex-showroom Thane). Since its launch, Quanto has received 3,200 bookings.

Exhibit 8: Mahindra & Mahindra Sales trend

Segment Total sales Passenger UV Four-wheel pick-up (GIO, Maxximo) Three-wheelers (Champion, Alfa) Logan/Verito LCV/MHCV Exports Total automotive sales Tractor sales Domestic Tractor sales Exports Total tractor sales
Source: Company, Angel Research

September September YTD YTD % chg % chg 2012 2011 FY2013 FY2012 68,427 68,810 (0.6) 308,257 272,161 13.3 22,008 14,417 6,048 1,800 990 3,079 48,342 18,908 1,177 20,085 17,887 13,419 1,560 968 3,001 44,137 1,165 23.0 7.4 15.4 2.3 2.6 99,095 68,366 24,968 6,251 5,133 15,111 84,450 4,883 89,333 74,043 57,091 25,847 5,231 9,955 88,002 4,845 92,847 33.8 19.7 (3.4) (1.9) 51.8 22.1 (4.0) 0.8 (3.8)

7,302 (17.2)

7,147 (12.5)

9.5 218,924 179,314 1.0

23,508 (19.6) 24,673 (18.6)

Exhibit 9: UV segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0

Jul-11

Mar-11

Nov-10

Nov-11

Mar-12

Sep-10

Sep-11

Jul-12

May-11

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: UV+four-wheel pick-up combined from November 2010

October 3, 2012

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-11

Jan-12

Auto Sector Update | September 2012

Exhibit 10: Tractor segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Nov-10 Nov-11 Sep-10 Sep-11 May-11 May-12 Mar-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jul-11 Jul-12 Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 (10.0) (20.0) (30.0)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Bajaj Auto
BJAUT reported in-line volumes benefitting from new launches and gradual recovery in export volumes BJAUT reported volumes in line with our estimates for September 2012. Total volumes posted a decline of 13.8% yoy to 360,152 units. On a sequential basis though, total volumes improved 4.4% driven by new launches - Pulsar 200NS (~9,000 units) and Discover 125ST (~35,000 units). While motorcycle volumes registered a decline of 15.1% yoy (up 3.6% mom) led by weak domestic demand and base effect; three-wheeler volumes fell by 3.5% yoy (up 10.6% mom) mainly due to weakness in the export markets. The company is seeing normalcy in its operations in both, Sri Lanka and Egypt, with three-wheeler sales in Sri Lanka expected to clock ~8,500 units monthly. Exports too declined by 6.1% yoy (up 1.3% mom) to 133,222 units led by lower dispatches to Sri Lanka.

Exhibit 11: Bajaj Auto Sales trend

Segment Total sales Motorcycles Three-wheelers Exports (included above) September September % chg 2012 2011 360,152 315,314 44,838 133,222 YTD FY2013 YTD % chg FY2012 (5.7) (4.0) (5.4)

417,686 (13.8) 2,128,179 2,256,952 371,208 (15.1) 1,911,147 1,990,408 46,478 141,913 (3.5) (6.1) 217,032 805,930 851,498

266,544 (18.6)

Source: Company, Angel Research

October 3, 2012

Auto Sector Update | September 2012

Exhibit 12: Motorcycle segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 (10.0) (20.0) 20.0 10.0 0.0 Volume (LHS) % yoy growth (RHS) (%) 40.0 30.0

Jul-11

Mar-11

Nov-10

Nov-11

Mar-12

Jul-12

Sep-10

Sep-11

May-11

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 13: Three-wheeler segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Volume (LHS) % yoy growth (RHS) (%) 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 (10.0) (20.0) (30.0) (40.0) (50.0)

May-12

Nov-10

Nov-11

Sep-10

Sep-11

May-11

May-12

Source: Company, Angel Research

Hero MotoCorp
HMCL reported lower-than-expected volumes led by rising inventory at dealer level HMCL registered extremely weak volumes for September 2012 as total sales declined by 26.4% yoy (8.8% mom) to 404,787 units. Decline in volumes during the month was larger than expected and was a result of slowdown in retail sales. On account of this, there has been pile-up of inventory at the dealer end.

Exhibit 14: Hero MotoCorp Sales trend

Total sales September September YTD YTD % chg 2012 2011 FY2013 FY2012 404,787 549,625 (26.4) 2,973,095 3,073,892 % chg (3.3)

Source: Company, Angel Research

October 3, 2012

Mar-11

Mar-12

Sep-12

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jul-11

Jul-12

Sep-12

Jan-11

Jan-12

Auto Sector Update | September 2012

Exhibit 15: Two-wheeler segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Volume(LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 (10.0) (20.0) (30.0)

Nov-10

Nov-11

Sep-10

Sep-11

May-11

May-12

Source: Company, Angel Research

TVS Motor
TVSL volumes improved sharply on a sequential basis driven by uptick in motorcycle and three-wheeler sales TVSL posted marginally better-than-expected volumes (up 10% mom) for the month, driven by sharp sequential jump in motorcycle (up 18.9% mom) and three-wheeler (28.1% mom) volumes. Total volumes however witnessed a decline of 22.5% yoy to 170,097 units as total two-wheeler volumes fell by 23.5% yoy. All the product segments of the company (ex three-wheelers) registered a sharp fall in volumes on a yoy basis with motorcycle and scooter sales declining by 29.7% and 28.3% yoy, respectively. Export volumes too plunged sharply, reporting a 27.5% yoy decline. However, TVSL registered its highest ever monthly three-wheeler sales volume in September 2012 at 5,005 units, up 36% yoy. During the month, TVSL launched a new 125cc motorcycle, Phoenix, which could provide impetus to companys volumes going into the festival season.

Exhibit 16: TVS Motor Sales trend

Segment Total sales Motorcycles Scooters Mopeds Total two-wheelers Exports (included above) Three-wheelers September September YTD YTD % chg 2012 2011 FY2013 FY2012 170,097 219,369 (22.5) 1,005,159 1,140,360 63,832 40,055 61,205 165,092 18,818 5,005 90,848 (29.7) 55,879 (28.3) 68,963 (11.2) 215,690 (23.5) 25,973 (27.5) 3,679 36.0 364,234 231,975 387,658 120,773 21,292 453,795 274,988 388,470 162,301 23,107 % chg (11.9) (19.7) (15.6) (0.2) (11.9) (25.6) (7.9)

Mar-11

983,867 1,117,253

Source: Company, Angel Research

October 3, 2012

Mar-12

Sep-12

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jul-11

Jul-12

Auto Sector Update | September 2012

Exhibit 17: Motorcycle segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 (10.0) (20.0) (30.0) (40.0)

Jul-11

Mar-11

Mar-12

Sep-10

Sep-11

Jul-12

Nov-10

May-11

Nov-11

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 18: Scooter segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 (20.0) (40.0)

Jul-11

May-12

Mar-11

Mar-12

Sep-10

Sep-11

Jul-12

Nov-10

May-11

Nov-11

Source: Company, Angel Research

October 3, 2012

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-11

Jan-12

Sep-12

Jan-11

Jan-12

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Auto Sector Update | September 2012

Outlook
We believe the long-term structural growth drivers of the Indian automobile industry such as GDP growth (leading to increasing affluence of rural and urban consumers), favorable demographics, low penetration levels, entry of global players and easy availability of finance are intact, which should support a 10-12% CAGR in auto volumes over FY2012-14E. As such, we prefer stocks that have strong fundamentals, high exposure to rural and export markets and command superior pricing power. We remain positive on AL, HMCL, MM and TTMT.

Exhibit 19: Relative valuation and recommendation

Companies AL BJAUT HMCL MSIL MM TTMT* TVSL Reco. Buy Neutral Accumulate Neutral Accumulate Buy Accumulate CMP (`) 24 1,784 1,364 870 273 45 TP (`) 30 944 49 Sales (`cr) FY13E 14,920 21,285 24,941 41,796 37,434 7,611 16,850 23,927 28,706 49,350 42,860 8,443 P/E (x) 11.2 16.4 15.1 20.5 14.7 7.0 9.5 8.9 14.7 13.8 14.7 13.1 6.1 8.2 P/BV (x) 2.1 6.8 6.6 2.3 3.1 2.0 1.6 1.8 5.5 5.2 2.0 2.6 1.6 1.4 RoE (%) 13.3 46.1 49.6 12.0 22.6 32.6 17.9 15.6 41.3 42.2 14.8 21.5 28.8 18.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.7 11.2 8.0 9.7 9.7 3.9 3.4 4.9 9.5 6.5 6.8 8.2 3.3 2.9 FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY12-14E EPS CAGR (%) 14.1 6.7 11.2 35.3 9.8 11.6 1.7

1,850 2,077

316 195,096 219,428

Source: Company, C-line, Angel Research; Note: Price as on October 3, 2012; *Consolidated financials

October 3, 2012

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Auto Sector Update | September 2012

Research Team Tel: 022 - 3935 7800

E-mail: research@angelbroking.com

Website: www.angelbroking.com

DISCLAIMER
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Disclosure of Interest Statement

Analyst ownership of the stock Ashok Leyland Tata Motors Maruti Suzuki Mahindra & Mahindra Bajaj Auto Hero MotoCorp TVS Motor No No No No No No No Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No No No No No No No Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No No No No No No No Broking relationship with company covered No No No No No No No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns):

Buy (> 15%) Reduce (-5% to 15%)

Accumulate (5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

Neutral (-5 to 5%)

October 3, 2012

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Auto Sector Update | September 2012

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Research Team Fundamental: Sarabjit Kour Nangra Vaibhav Agrawal Bhavesh Chauhan Sharan Lillaney V Srinivasan Yaresh Kothari Ankita Somani Varun Varma Saurabh Taparia Bhupali Gursale Vinay Rachh Amit Patil Shareen Batatawala Twinkle Gosar Tejashwini Kumari Technicals: Shardul Kulkarni Sameet Chavan Sacchitanand Uttekar Derivatives: Siddarth Bhamre Institutional Sales Team: Mayuresh Joshi Hiten Sampat Meenakshi Chavan Gaurang Tisani Akshay Shah Production Team: Tejas Vahalia Dilip Patel Research Editor Production tejas.vahalia@angelbroking.com dilipm.patel@angelbroking.com VP - Institutional Sales Sr. A.V.P- Institution sales Dealer Dealer Sr. Executive mayuresh.joshi@angelbroking.com hiten.sampat@angelbroking.com meenakshis.chavan@angelbroking.com gaurangp.tisani@angelbroking.com akshayr.shah@angelbroking.com Head - Derivatives siddarth.bhamre@angelbroking.com Sr. Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst shardul.kulkarni@angelbroking.com sameet.chavan@angelbroking.com sacchitanand.uttekar@angelbroking.com VP-Research, Pharmaceutical VP-Research, Banking Sr. Analyst (Metals & Mining) Analyst (Mid-cap) Analyst (Cement, Power, FMCG) Analyst (Automobile) Analyst (IT, Telecom) Analyst (Banking) Analyst (Banking) Economist Research Associate Research Associate Research Associate Research Associate Research Associate sarabjit@angelbroking.com vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com sharanb.lillaney@angelbroking.com v.srinivasan@angelbroking.com yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com ankita.somani@angelbroking.com varun.varma@angelbroking.com sourabh.taparia@angelbroking.com bhupali.gursale@angelbroking.com vinay.rachh@angelbroking.com amit.patil@angelbroking.com shareen.batatawala@angelbroking.com gosar.twinkle@angelbroking.com tejashwini.kumari@angelbroking.com

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