www.indianexpress.

com

TheIndian EXPRESS

THE OP-ED PAGE

l THURSDAY l SEPTEMBER 13 l 2012

11

The northern neighbour

In the first of a three-part series, a look at the challenges Chinas rise poses for India
JACQUELINE DEAL, STEPHEN ROSEN AND SHIVAJI SONDHI
INDIA has a China problem. In this first of three essays we wish to summarise why this is so, and in the two subsequent ones we examine the decadal trends that will influence how this problem might play out and end with a set of recommendations for what India candotominimise adverseoutcomes. The first of the three sources of Indias China problem is the outcome of the last three decades of systematically higher economic growth in China. By any useful metric, China has pulled ahead from rough parity around 1980 and perhaps as late as 1990. Today, Chinas GDP is four times that of Indias, and the ratio is still increasing. This suggests that for the next two decades, India will be up against a neighbour with a substantial advantage in material resources. China also has greater financial strength accruing from its deeper involvement in the international trading system. Finally, China has made greater investments in military power, both conventional and unconventional. China has sought to counter the United States and has thus necessarily gained capabilities vis-a-vis India. All of these make China a formidable antagonist for India on current projections. The second source of Indias China problem is that this relative growth in Chinese national power is significant not only locally but also globally. Chinese power has been growing relative to the other major actors in the international system, most importantly the US, and business-asusual projections imply that Chinas GDP, measured directly in dollar terms, could equal that of the US by 2030, perhaps sooner. While China might still lag in the global technology race, GDP parity does imply that Chinese freedom of action will notbeasconstrainedbythepoweroftheUS acting on its own as it is today. Indeed, even in narrow military terms, projecting power across the Pacific to the close proximity of a rival with rapidly growing resources already poses challenges for the US at a time when domestic budgetary constraints are affecting defence spending. By itself, a change in the balance of power in the international system doesnt have to impact India adversely after all, the last major power transition from Britain to the US helped India achieve independence. However, in the current case, there is little room for optimism. Chinas geopolitical interests are fundamentally adversarial to Indias, beginning in Indias own neighbourhood, inclusive of their common, unsettled border, where China launched a surprise attack in 1962. Pakistan, Indias permanent security headache, has long manent Chinese military presence outside China, for example, in Pakistan. Similarly, unless India takes steps to match Chinas build-upinitstraditionalmaritimesphereof influence, China could soon enjoy a permanent and relatively inexpensive naval presence in the Indian Ocean. Fourth, if terror attacks against India traced to Pakistan resulted in a future crisis, China would be in a position to pressure India into an unfavourable settlement. Fifth, just as China seeks to influence neighbouring countries relations with Taiwan and the US, in the future we can expect China to try to limit the strategic autonomy of these states, including Indias. This would result in a kind of Finlandisation of India, according to which Indian leaders would make regular pilgrimages to Beijing to co-ordinate positions on all major international questions even at the cost of Indian national interests. Finally, consistent with current Chinese proposals on the future of the internet and freedom of speech globally, a chilling of Indian free speech on China would accompany the reduction of Indias strategic autonomy. This discourse control would be accomplished through a combination of diplomatic and economic pressure, as well as technical means involving Chinese cyber intrusion, monitoring and filtering. Anyone with a long view of the history of the India-China relationship should be struck by a pattern of constant Chinese pressure that is resisted for periods by India but ultimately results in Indian concessions. In the 1950s, India was negotiating the incorporation of Tibet into China. Today, India finds itself (in reality) negotiating the incorporation of Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh into India. Thus the line of contestation has moved steadily against India and the default prediction should be that it will move still further. The burden of proof is on those who believe that the growing adverse balance of power will also magically bring this drift to an end. Our purpose in this piece was to establish that much is truly at stake for India as it deals with China over the next couple of decades and that the current projections are not comforting. In the next piece, we look deeper behind these projections and find grounds for optimism. Deal is president and CEO of the Long Term Strategy Group, a Washington DC-based defence consultancy. Rosen is Beton Michael Kaneb Professor of National Security and Military Affairs at Harvard University and senior counsellor at LTSG. Sondhi is on the faculty at Princeton and directs the India and the World programme at its Centre for International Security Studies

The loneliness of Mahmoud Abbas

Disunity and a lack of political vision continue to plague the Palestinian leadership
P KUMARASWAMY .R.
worse time. Ever since Tunisian vegetable vendor Mohamed Bouazizi unintentionally started it, the Arab Spring has swept the region. With the sole exception of Qatar, the country with the worlds highest per capita income,nocountryintheregionisfree from popular protests and unrest. Most Arab rulers are busy fighting for their survival. Popular yarning for change,goodgovernanceandpolitical opennessispalpableacrosstheregion. While the final picture is far from certain, it is obvious that the most dramatic change in the region since the endofWorldWarIIisdomesticandrevolves around institution-building. For a change, these protests are not directed at Israel or driven by its omissions and commissions. Despite some aberrations like the attack on the Israeli embassy in September last year, the Arab-Israeli conflict has been marginal to the Arab Spring. Moreover, rulers of Syria and to a lesser extent Jordan, are fighting for their survival. Syria is emerging as a second Iraq and sensing the internal situation, a number of Hamas leaders who spent long years in Damascus have moved out to safer places. Similarly, a series of concessions offered by King Abdullah have not satisfied the hardline Islamists. Things are not better in Egypt either.ThevictoryofMuslimBrotherhoodleaderMohammedMorsiraised hopes among the Palestinians, especially Hamas. As the ideological offshoot of the former, Hamas was hop-

C R SASIKUMAR

received Chinese support, ensuring that words, to imagine a future in which ChiIndias attention is diverted away from its nese power looks like the power the US rival in the east, as well as providing China commands today. with a friendly route to the Arabian Sea With that in mind, consider, for one, and the Persian Gulf. developments inside Tibet, perhaps followBeyond the immediate neighbour- ing the death of the Dalai Lama, which hood, Chinese strategic thought and beha- could lead to decisive Chinese pressure for viour indicate a drive for Asian hegemony IndiatoshutdownallTibetanpoliticalactivthat will constrain Indias freedom of ity in India and to force the Tibetan govmanoeuvre. At the ideological level, ernment-in-exile into further exile outside Chinas default vision is incompatible with India. Tibetan refugees in India would be Indias, whether on cultural pluralism, as asked to take Indian citizenship or to leave witnessed in the mutual incomprehension India, bringing to an end a morally admiover Tibet, or the institutional pluralism of rable policy that India has stubbornly clung democracy. It seems unwise for India to bet to for over 50 years. that a Chinese state that seeks a political Second, as in 1962, China might also monopoly and extensive control over its use unrest in Tibet as a pretext to seek a own population will new border settlenot seek, at the very ment on Chinese least, deference A LONG view of history reveals terms. This time, abroad whenever its China might end up a pattern of constant Chinese growing power alcontrolling Tawang, lows a credible at- pressure, resisted for periods by which Chinese offitempt. Finally, there India, but ultimately resulting cials currently refer is evidence that in Indian concessions. to as part of south popular and elite Tibet (along with Chinese beliefs the rest of about India are unsympathetic and are un- Arunachal Pradesh). Unlike the 1962 war, likely to make for an easy relationship. a future military clash may not be restricted Our comments above may seem abs- to land warfare at the border instead, tract, so it is useful to list developments we may see a more dispersed set of strikes that India may have to contend with over with precision weapons that disable Indian the next two decades if current trends go capabilitiesinonefellswoopaswellascyber unchallenged. These are not predictions attacks. China would also be likely to bring but an attempt to identify points of slip- to bear financial pressure, using economic page under the growing stresses. In consid- warfare levers acquired through high levels ering these potential slippage points, we of investment and trade. ask the reader to imagine an environment Third, Chinas military build-up, comin which China has unquestioned military bined with the internal weakness of states dominance over India and a major voice in aroundIndiasbordersandChinasgrowing the international system, especially in interest in Middle East resources and trade economic and financial matters. In other routes, could result in an expanded, per-

IF PALESTINIAN President Mahmoud Abbas was enamoured by the warmth, hospitality, assistance and above all the ceremonial guard of honour in New Delhi, none can fault him. Like most leaders in todays world,heismorepopularoutsidethan among his constituents and foreign visitsandmeetingsareoftenaconsolationandusefuldiversionforotherwise bleak ground realities. While Abbas cannot be held responsible for much of the problems facing the Palestinians today, he symbolises them. For nearly a century, the Palestinian leadership was anything but united and even Israel could not unite them. What began as a feud between powerful clans slowly transformed into the Palestinian plight becoming a pawn in the inter-Arab clash. Rival leaders began propping various factors within the Palestinian national movement to serve their interests and undermine their rivals. Before long, the Palestinians had more groups and factions serving different rulers and professing differing ideologies. The emergence of

IN THE Middle East, there is a growing fatigue over the Palestinian issue, especially among the beleaguered Arab rulers. The region is more concerned about a possible Israeli military strike against the Iranian nuclear programme than about Palestinian statehood.
Hamas following the 1987 Intifada added a strong ideological resonance to these divisions. Thus, Tuesdays visit was Abbass fourth to India since he succeeded Yasser Arafat in January 2005. During the same period, he visited the Gaza Strip in December 2006, his first andlasttripaspresident.Political-ideological differences and security concerns have prevented Abbas from visiting the other part of the Palestinian National Authority that he heads. While the Israel-imposed siege of the Gaza Strip draws international attention,theinternalstrugglehasrarely been noticed, especially within India. During the past decades, the peace talks in the Middle East took an ominoustone.TheydidnotimplyPalestinian deliberations with Israel but internal negotiations for unity. Even powerful countries like Saudi Arabia triedtheirluckandburnttheirreputation. Within weeks after the February 2007MeccaAccordfacilitatedbyKing Abdullah, Hamas took over the Gaza Strip and since then there is very little interaction between the two parts of Palestine. The sense of alienation and indifference was total. During Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip in late 2008, where over a thousand Gazans were killed, the West Bank remained indifferent and quiet. Thus, a three-state solution (Israel, and two Palestinian states of West Bank and the Gaza Strip) looks more promising than a two-state solution of Israel and Palestine co-existing side by side. The continuation of the Palestinian divisions could not have come at a ing for a complete reversal of Hosni Mubaraks accommodative policy towards Israel. These hopes were dashed within days. The suspected involvement of Palestinians in recent attacksagainstsecuritypersonnelforced Morsi to settle for Egyptian security over ideological proximity with Hamas.WiththealreadylawlessSinai Peninsula he does not need another spoiler in the form of tunnels used to smuggle weapons into the Gaza Strip. At least in the Middle East, there is a growing fatigue over the Palestinian issue, especially among the beleaguered Arab rulers. The international situation is equally gloomy. Most Western countries are struggling to wriggle out of the economic crises and US President Barack Obama is busy with his re-election bid. The region is more concerned about a possible Israeli military strike against the Iranian nuclear programme than about Palestinian statehood. Above all, Abbas and his colleagues have not evolved a mechanism to deal with the only interlocutor they have got: Benjamin Netanyahu. While Israeli intransigence often gets widespread attention, Palestinians face serious internal challenges. OncehereturnstohisRamallahcomplex,Abbaswillcontinuetolookforan answer to the twin problems that have plagued the Palestinians for decades: national unity and political vision. The writer teaches at Jawaharlal Nehru University. He is currently in Jerusalem on a sabbatical

MODI MAYA
THE 32 convictions, including that of BJP MLA Maya Kodnani, in the Naroda Patiya massacre case have agitated Sangh Parivar mouthpiece Organiser. A special report in its latest issue calls the special courts verdict a flawed judgement, bad in law and laments the quantum of punishment unheard of, innocents convicted. However, the reports thrust is less on legal loopholes and it is more an attempt to reject Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modis critics suggestion that the convictions took place `despite the Modi government and not because of the Modi government. For this, the report highlights that total convictions in the post-Godhra riots have risen now to about 200, including 34 Muslims, in 18 cases so far, and contrasts this with convictions in the anti-Sikh riots in Delhi, claiming that only 16 persons have been convicted in seven cases, even 28 years later. In addition, given critics penchant

View from the RIGHT

for crediting the SIT, the report claims that 95 individuals had already been convicted even before the SIT was constituted and that convictions continue to happen even in non-SIT cases. It gives two examples. In the Naroda Patiya case itself, 21 of the 32 accused were arrested by the Gujarat police even before the SITs monitoring. In the Sardarpura case, the report points out that only two of the 21 arrested by the SIT were convicted, while the remaining 29 accused were arrested by the Gujarat police. Also, these convictions, whether with SIT or without SIT, are a world record, says the Organiser report. Parliament get prominent space in both the Sangh Parivar mouthpieces. While it was the BJP which stalled Parliament over the coal block allocations, the Parivar mouthpieces fault the Congress. Panchjanya, in fact, put the blame at the prime ministers doorstep saying that it was the stubbornness of the PMs denial of the biggest scam since Independence that was solely responsible for the washout. Panchjanya praises the BJP-led NDA for not falling into the governments trap to hold a discussion on the issue. Discussion in Parliament is the easiest and most secure cover for the government against any attack from the opposition as it enjoys majority in Parliament, it says, praising the BJP for presenting a united front against the establishments attempt to break NDA unity.

EDUCATED BY TERROR
THE arrest of 18 professionals from Bangalore, Hyderabad and Nanded, suspected to be linked to a terror conspiracy, has got Panchjanya to raise the alarm. In a prominent article, Panchjanya expresses serious apprehensions about the infiltration of Jihadi terror into the minds of young Muslim scientists, doctors and journalists. A full-page article on this issue also reminds readers of the alleged involvement of another journalist in the attack on an Israeli diplomat in Delhi, in order to attack the religious organisations pressuring the government to release those apprehended. The article suggests instead that religious organisations running their campaign for these innocent individuals should utilise their energy to enforce a social boycott of those linked to terror cases. Compiled by Ravish Tiwari

SESSION WASHOUT

THE washout of the monsoon session of

Tele SCOPE
SHAILAJA BAJPAI
There are positive starts and there are false starts. For news channels last Saturday, it was the restart of Yuvraj Singhs career that ended as a non-starter. Yuvraj dominated the days headlines up to the point that the Vizag match was rained out and his triumphal return postponed. But news channels have a never-say-die spirit and so provided an instant replay on Tuesday for the next Twenty20 match, welcoming Yuvraj back with gusto: 90 per cent match will be played, 100 per cent Yuvraj will play! declared India TV. Once the game began (Star Cricket), all eyes and cameras were on the man. In the first five minutes, we saw Yuvraj at least 6 times. Would have seen even more of him but for Zaheer Khan repeatedly appealing and then bowling New Zealand opener Rob Nicol in the first over and Irfan Pathan knocking back Martin Guptills stumps in the second. Meanies. And then he came in to bowl over number seven. Hearts in mouths: how would Yuvi bowl after a long layoff and cancer? A single, a dot ball, beats Brendon McCullum on the third, three singles follow. Hows that for a comeback? remarked commentator Harsha Bhogle. Yuvi would score 34 off 26 balls and though India lost, Yuvi won that was enough for everyone watching. Amitabh Bachchan has made a comeback too. Last Friday, he played host on a new season of Kaun Banega Crorepati (Sony). He looked as if hed never left the quiz show, so comfortable was he gently prodding his guests, joking with them, dancing with them and finally asking them questions. Nothing new there. The change is in the programmes theme: last year, the message was that anyone from anywhere could become a millionaire. This year, its that if you want to become a millionaire, you need knowledge. Education. Seems Aamir Khan is not the only Bollywood star promoting a worthwhile social cause. And, contestant M.K. Raina won Rs 1 crore on day three. In the past, weve had to wait several weeks before big money changed hands. Perhaps education helps

Big B is back to playing host, but it was Yuvraj Singhs return to cricket that dominated the small screen
HEARTS IN mouths: how would Yuvi bowl after a long layoff and cancer? A single, a dot ball, beats Brendon McCullum on the third, three singles follow. Yuvi would score 34 off 26 balls and though India lost, Yuvi won that was enough for everyone watching.
you win earlier? Soha Ali Khan did not make a return to the small screen, she made her debut. And what a debut, my countrymen. As co-host with stylist Aki Narula, shes sassy, supersonic cool, confident, and extremely eloquent in her advice to guests about What Not To Wear (TLC). They make a fine pair of judges for a style improvement series. Where Amitabh B is careful to reassure his guests, pet them and pat them on the back, Soha and Aki, but especially Soha, do not scruple to say, Thats hideous and throw out a girls entire cherished, hard-earned wardrobe. Of course, after the female has been restyled with their help, Soha feels like a mother. You have taken my breath away, she gasped at one transformed lady. Given her loquaciousness, that was quite an accomplishment. A smart, snappy show that says the worst dressed can be better dressed. Actress Anushka Sharma likes sleeveless tops, dunno what Soha and Aki may say to that, but she fancies them, particularly on a date with a handsome hunk. So what does she do? Why, wear that sleeveless something, but not before she has applied Nivea skin whitener for underarms, so that he wont exclaim, Thats hideous! when she carelessly raises an arm to sweep her hair away. Whitener for underarms? What next? Actually, lets not speculate. You never know where those obsessed with fairness will go next. Meredith is making a comeback along with Mike & Molly. Greys Anatomy (Star World) has been advertised and promoted like Satyamev Jayate. Everywhere. Relentlessly. Like it was new or at least, all new episodes. But weve begun at the beginning some eight seasons after it first began. Good marketing but expected more than a repeat. Mike & Molly (Zee Caf) are going on their first date again. You could almost confuse this with How I Met Your Mother, where most characters have new dates daily. Mike and Molly still make you laugh on that date when she ends up passing out on the toilet seat at the restaurant but please dont repeat it, again. Okay? shailaja.bajpai @expressindia.com

Comeback kids