INDEX

DEC

31,2009

NOV

3,2010

YEAR TO DATE

cHANGE (%)

FBM KLCI S-inapole SlJgi!3 rlmes l1d9x Jakarla Composite lndex

1,272!8
2,897:6

1,507.6A 3:.224,97
3r6O-5:67 1,O14:20

+18.45

2,534356

-2

Stogf Exghange of Thallan! !ndgx

Shanghai SE Composite Hang Seng lndex

j,zit.tis
)ti,,eh.5o

734.54

i:a

;h)i
bz

;ii

30

3,030 99
24114467

i11
18

-10,i9

aombay Stoc[ ricrringe Sensex 30 tndex

S&P 500 lndex

ti,ia,i,zt
1or4_28105 1,115.10

20,465:74
11,215J3 1,197.96

;1i

.;;t

;)

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to concur with this view. "we believe a smaller-than-expected QE exercise will pose only a tcnrpol'ary challenge for continued mediumte lrn Asian equity upside," it says. I t arlcls that emerging markets will continue to bc rrt'fi t florr.r forc'ign capital inflows with or wit horrt u strbstantial anlount of quantitative

think anybody can since there are a lot of factors at play here," he says. Inview of the hot money coming in,several central banks have tried to curb the prospect of inflation by raising interest rates. In a recent FinancialTimesreport,Bank Indonesia deputy governor Budi Mulya says the
bank is examining several proposals to control

casirrg.'l'ht' pltt('l'n is e.xpected to continue QE2 is substantial.

if

the surge of capital inflows into the country.

Many investors
are sitting on the

These include lengthening the one-month treasurybills iu tlre lirst trurttl of'c;uautitative minimum holding period for its treasurybills easing, thc boncl nra rl<t't ra I y w i I I crttl wi thout and extending the minimum duration of bank telm deposits from two months to 12. a substantial QEz. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India has "A resulting bond sc|l-of-l'woultl t'ottgh ttp
Ilowcvcr', bct'uusc t ho l't'tl botrgl'rt bonds and
I

sidelines, waiting for

correction before jumping into the rally again

a major

considerable quantities of liquiclity whiclr wotrlcl then look for a new asset class to parl< i t st'l l' i n. Moreover, because a treasury sell-ofI woulcl steepen theyield curve - that is,long-end yielcls rising,implying stronger growth and inflation prospects the money exiting bonds will likely

raisccl its benchmark interest rates for Novemthe sixth consecutive month it has done so this year due the threat of inflation. Last week, Bank Negara finally announced

lrcl

alreadybeen factored into the market, it remains to be seen, " he adds. The first round of quantitative easing saw
QE2 has

second quarter ofzott. This of course would mean another wave of

the US Federal Reserve buy US$r.z trillion worth

of treasury and mortgage-backed securities between December 2o08 and March this year to lower interest rates and boost consumption
after the uS economy suffered a gridlock due to the credit crunch that began in 2oo8. The Fed has announced a smaller amount of

quantitative easing of us$ooo billion this time around. It will be buying about us$7s billion worth of Treasury bonds per month until the

foreign capital inflows in emerging markets. But due to a smaller QE2, emerging markets should see less of an impact. In a Nov 3 interviewwith CNBC, HSBC Private Bank head of investment strategy for Asia Arjuna Mahendran said central banks in emerging markets "would heave a sigh of relief" as the potential capital inflow would be more manageable if less than uS$t trillion was iniected into the US banking system. A Macquarie Equity Research report seems

in more inflation-sensitive and growth-sensitive assets.Asian equities would fit the bill on both counts," it says. Another local fund manager believes that there is another reason behind the bull run on Bursa aside from foreign capital inflows. "Malaysia's fundamentals have stabilised somewhat, especially if you look at consumer sentiment.It has improved from last year. Last year, people were holding on tightly to their money. If you couple that with the foreign money coming in, that's a lot of good things happening at the same time for our bourse. I can't say whether this is sustainable. I don't
seek exposure

a maximum loan-to-value ratio (LVR) of 70% or.r thircl-house purchases.This is expected to rnode rate the excessive investment and speculative activity in the residential property marl<et,which has resulted in higher than average price increases in certain urban locations, it
said in a statement.

As the local bourse continues to rally, it can't be denied that part of the reason is the continuing foreign capital inflows. once the flows stabilise,what will happen on the local
stock market remains to be seen. However,one

thing is for certain - the last thing investors want to see happen is a repeat of the 199298 financial crisis, when foreign funds left the
country in haste.

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